Thailand – an unspoken perspective

Suthep and his protesters are still reported by the main media as the game changer, fully in charge and in control and like a sure thing to topple the Yingluck govt. Many govt agencies and Bangkok elite are also singing the same tune. The truth is that Suthep is looking more like a legalized thug, and a foolish one at it.

The Bangkok elite of royalists, the military and the residents and academics are convincing themselves that the Yingluck govt is corrupt and must be removed and will be removed. The police have been castrated and cannot do anything. Any move by the police will allow the army to stage a coup immediately.

One of the assumptions in this scenario is that Thailand consists of only the Yellow Shirts from Bangkok and they can ignore the 65 mil rural Thais. The 5 mil Yellow Shirts can decide for the 65 mil Thais who should rule Thailand. This arrogance and disrespect of the majority of the Thais will not go down well with the Red Shirts. And they are not going to take it quietly. The rural Thais are politicized and no longer the ignorant masses to be manipulated by the city elite. They will not allow the Yingluck govt to fall and not do anything.

The army is also very careful of their options and the bigger picture. They are not as united as they appeared to be and know that the regional commanders may have different ideas. An attempt to stage a coup in Bangkok could ignite a bigger coup in the north and northeast regions, maybe more. The army not only has to contend with a pro govt police but also the factions within. A coup in Bangkok would lead to an array of events that would run out of control.

The division in the army is likely due to the imminent fall of the big tree. When the tree falls, there will be a regrouping of forces within the monarchy, if it is still intact. Backing the wrong horse now could be very costly and could join Suthep and his followers behind bars when the dice falls on the wrong side. Many of the army commanders must be wavering at the prospect of a royal change and a new royalty may have different ideas.

Playing safe and playing the cards close to their chests will be to the interest of all the military commanders. What they are very sure is the tree falling and a New Order. The old elite and old royalists could be in for a severe rubbing. Playing the game wrongly could see Thailand transforming into a republic when the people’s power shall rule, which also means the Red Shirts shall call the shot.

It is a complex political game at the moment and what is reported in the main media is only one side of the story and ignoring the will of the majority of the Thai people. Bangkok is not Thailand.


patriot said...

What is happening in Thailand could be a blessing in the End.

At the end of the conflict, the Thais will have a new start. Whoever becomes the New Leader will be made very aware that the People will not stand nonsense and abuse from their Rulers.


Ⓜatilah $ingapura⚠️ said...

I'm waiting for the Thai economy to be thrashed to the point they cannot tahan anymore, and then have no choice but to entice "the money" by offering sweet, cheap deals.

You can call me heartless. I don't mind. I'm a bottom-feeding, profit-seeking opportunist. If people want to do silly things, allow them the freedom to be idiots. Then move in and take advantage of their folly.

I see nothing wrong with this.

virgo49 said...

Matilah, you are one of the many others like vultures who prey on the miseries, misfortunes of others.

Beware. Of KARMA, what goes round come around.

Ⓜatilah $ingapura⚠️ said...


As a HARDCORE skeptic/atheist I do not ascribe to unproven and unprovable, stupid concepts like "karma". There is no such thing. Sorry.

>> prey on the miseries, misfortunes of others.

As long as you didn't create their misery and misfortune, any money you put their way to "relieve" them actually helps their situation. If you feel so inclined and religious, you can think yourself as "good karma" or "good Samaritan". Fair exchange: They get your money and/or help, you get their goods at a "discounted" price.

Anonymous said...

Matilar is only waiting for the Thai misfortune to get cheap sex deal lar. Currently offered in sg Thai girl charges s$100 for full service. He is hoping to pay like $50 lar. That is all the deals he looking for. That motherfucker habit is like that mah

Anonymous said...

Hi RB,
I always enjoyed reading your post, however, I need to highlight that the population of Thailand is approximately 67.5 million people.

In 2011 Thailand General Election:
Pheu Thai popular vote won: 15,744,190 (48.41%)

Democrat popular vote won: 11,433,762 (35.15%)

There are no yellow shirt in this current protest.

The reds are the one using color instead, now from red shirt to white shirt.

Anonymous said...

Sinkies have to learn from the citizenries of older and bigger nations. The people of Thailand have constantly rise against their political leaders. They do not tolerate abuse for too long when rulers get wayward. This has made Thailand as the only country in Asia that is never conquered.

Chua Chin Leng aka redbean said...

Hi Anon 3:41, I estimated the Thai pop to be around 70m and used it as a rough figure.

As usual there will the be the neutral Thais and some with different orientation. The main battle is still between the royalists and Thais in Bangkok and the rural Thais. And the rural Thais is a much bigger group. Here we are not just talking about the voters but the voters and their families.

The Bangkok elite is snubbing the poor farmers and this will be played up to the Red Shirts advantage. We read the media like only the Suthep and his protesters are taking all the initiatives and pushing the Red Shirts around and the latter are not doing anything.

The Red Shirts are very well organised and will move when command. They have taken directives not to confront the Bangkok protesters, not that they are not bothered. When they move, the earth will shake.

They are led by very able leaders and would not take defeat lying down.

Anonymous said...

The king is making his last struggle, taking his last breath and will be no more. If he goes tomorrow, what do you think will happen to Suthep and his movement? Where will he hide?

b said...

politics is dirty. the most dirty one will win. the people will always be the one to get screw.

Anonymous said...

It is worrisome that GRC will hinder Singapore progress?

Many third world countries had move up the ladder, especially the opening up of China? Competition is moving up?

As the world progress obsolete way of doing things should be discarded?

The GRC form because of worrying about race riot in the 60s? These were hardly happened present with internet age? If any racial remarks it was very fast resolved?

As form of racial dispute almost dissolved immediately as communication is much faster the the 60s and education level much higher?

At that time communication technology is poor and slow, many are not educated or little educations, so misunderstanding were easy with different cultural background?

It so funny to lump 6 persons together to vote rather then one by one? We could be make the laughing stocks of the world?

Just like Marco Polo learn everything from CHina went back Europe innovate very fast, Singapore can effort to fell behind with obsolete thinking?

Many nations or third countries don't use these GRC methods of passing votes around, all use single seats?

Outmoded method depend on labour intensive foreign investment need to discarded?

If Singapore don't keep up with the trend Singapore could fell behind?

Like the china humiliating defeat of China in the BOXer rebellions? Or the Arab Spring?

GRC is more like a excuse for covering vote passing around from the foreigners perspective? It will do Singapore future more harm?

Singapore with only 9 percents Indian yet it got 18 percent Indian MP in the parliament, the proportion is too wide?

If not enough other race representation, Singapore had develop various type of NMP, NMCP representations in the Parliament, in case not enough of other race MP in the parliament other races leaders can be appointed?

JBJ came in through a single seat, and many other race MP too?

Singapore can't effort to lost too much of its brightest oversea?

Because of the GRC around 28 opposition MP can't came in the Parliament? If Oppositions MP can't in it will be serious distortion of reality in SIngapore?

Not many of the main party willing to speak out for fearing offending its leaders, if oppositions they are likely to tell the true the actual situation on the ground?

Genuine feedback is important to SIngapore progress as Singapore hope to keep up with the world fast changing pace, with the internet age?

Singapore have come this far, now is SIngapore restructured to service industries from an average 8 millions tourist, Singapore to14 millions tourist? As cheap labour intensive not competitive?

To cut down non deserving MP coming in the Parliament Singapore need to revert back to Single seats contest?

If not enough opposition, distortions, all the problem sweep under the carpet, will be manifest more serious later, it can't be avoided?

Singapore developing it second wind in manufacturing, which need much innovation , design talents, to build world class products and multi national companies?

Anonymous said...

"What they are very sure is the tree falling and a New Order."

For a minute there I thought you were talking about Singapore.

Anonymous said...

With 30K newer citizens every year inject into Singapore, what type of schemes to mitigate, these newer citizens taking away or depress the new citizens and local jobs, and their children jobs?

It can't be increase the supply, the increase in supply job, the law of supply and demand don't work this way? The increase in supply of worker, will decrease the demand for workers?

With the CPF locked up scheme for life which aggravate the Singapore many social ills? Outside Singapore look good to the foreigners, but when you look behind the backyard?

Many older citizens used to able to take back their CPF at 55, now can't take back resulting in flourishing of credit companies and loan shark?

With more competition from cheaper third world workers?

New ways of monetize the older persons flat need to be develop, like refinancing schemes? Now much the old person can refinance the schemes let the bank work out?

It can't on one hand 30K of new citizens came to takeaway the new citizens and local jobs on the other hand keep his CPF, these will lead to more and more serious problems later?

New ways got to be found for the people to refinance his HDB since it became more privatize, what for the person can only everyday see the bricks and can't use it for emergency, good to see by can't use?

The Nordic had various benefits to help those job less, Singapore don't have? So it crucial to find more schemes to help those new citizens and local whose jobs taken away by the $30K of newer citizens?

Anonymous said...

After the CPF locked up scheme for life more and more credit companies and loan shark set up?

As a result more social problems?

Anonymous said...

When you increase in foreign workers naturally there will be decrease in supply of jobs?

When you increase the supply of oppositions MP in the Parliament naturally the Salaries, Pensions, Allowances and 8 month bonuses got to be reduce to that level of the Nordic, Swiss and New Zealand ministers level?

A figure head president made a staggering $40 millions in his 12 years of tenure, it could be if he is in Nordic?

All these money need lots of indirect taxes to maintain?

Now technology improve fast, Singapore got to keep up with changes, if not it will be like China most humiliating defeat in the Boxer Rebellion or the Arab Spring due to extremely high inflation?

The third world countries is catching up fast with Singapore because of the internet? Singapore can not effort to dwell on old glory?

Got to discard obsolete practice and look for new ways like Marco Polo came to China learn everything to innovate in Europe?

A unrestrained increase in foreigners will lead to extremely high inflation?

With all these Ministers income reduce to the level of the Nordic, the less need to all the very high indirect taxes like COE, GST, ERP, and levies etc, that heavily burdened the business and the common people?

More incentive to increase the use of local and how to bring out their potential, their creativeness, innovations etc. rather then using foreigners to reduce cost etc? To bring Singapore SME to next level to provide jobs for locals?

With more competition in the political arena, more innovations like the Nordic?

So the right proportion and balance is need for the win win situation?

Anonymous said...

New incentive, recognitions and honours need to bring out the local creativeness, innovative, inventiveness?

Chua Chin Leng aka redbean said...

Yes politics in most instances are inseparable with corruption. It is what they do with their corruption. In the case of Thaksin, he shared it with the rural poor and trying to uplift the quality of their life like 30 baht medical fee, raising the price of rice, schooling etc etc.

Many corrupt politicians took the loot to benefit themselves and their family members, buying huge estates all over the world. The Bangkok elite are no angels. They are just as corrupt as the Thaksin group, and they kept their loot and keeping the people poor as a form of controlling them.

Thaksin has given the right on how the country should be run to the rural people. It is simple pure democracy at work. And this is what corrupt politicians do not want. They want power only for themselves and keep the rest of the people poor or in debt.

The rural poor know and would give their full support to Thaksin's form of democracy. What is happening is a party claiming to be democratic, using the name democrat and trying to kill democracy and replace it with a non elected govt.

Anonymous said...

Bangkok Post
Philip J Cunningham is media researcher covering Asian politics

[Thailand's doomsday clock moves closer to midnight]

"Elections are not necessarily the problem, as some of Suthep Thaugsuban's followers seem to believe,
but elections are not the answer at the present time.

If a Tammany Hall type of electoral-based political cult is causing a nation to rip its heart out,
and the state of emergency narrowly focused on Bangkok promises to do just that,
then the system needs reform before a periodic flick of the wrist at a voting booth is going to produce decent democratic results.

The obsession with elections smacks of Cold War political theatre,
the sort of thing that tyrants like Ferdinand Marcos perfected,
installing superficially democratic regimes that then went on to rape, rob and pillage the wealth of the nation for decades to come.

If nothing else, Thaksin, and his assorted proxies have never wavered from the view of democracy as a "winner-takes-all" lottery for the ruling party,
and especially to the man on top, to the detriment of the nation as a whole.