China and the US are at war in the most unusual and the most inconceivable kind. Both know that they are at war, in a very intense competition for power and influence but heading tangentially away to avoid a direct confrontation. Both are fighting without meeting and definitely not in the conventional battle field. No face off yet. This came too close last week when the Americans flew their B52s heading directly into China and came within firing range of both parties, one to launch its cruise missiles and the other to fire its SAMs.
The
Americans are gearing up for a war that they are most confident to win, with
their massive fire power, technology and military hardware. They are preparing
for a showdown. The pivot to Asia has just begun and the
first few pieces of pawns have been moved. More and more American hardware and
personnel would be deployed to the Western Pacific. The latest aircraft
carriers and sophisticated aircraft in service and those still on the drawing
board are all earmarked and bound for the region.
The
Americans are preparing for a swift and abominable war of decimation and
destruction in a scale never seen before. The shock and awe strategy of the
Iraq War was too miniscule in every aspect compares to what the Americans are
planning.
The
Chinese are also planning. Actually this is inaccurate. The Chinese have
started the war many years back. The Chinese have been moving their pieces to
all corners of the world, without moving a single soldier. They are sending
their warriors in suits and ties to every country that is willing to trade with
China. They are acquiring
assets, commodities, resources and American dollars everywhere with the
Americans the bigger losers. The Americans thought otherwise, that they could
wipe out the debt either by printing away or by an open conflict.
The
Chinese are gearing up militarily but in defensive mode. It is cheaper and more
sustainable in many ways in the long run. They only need to defend and it would
take an offensive force many times more powerful, and resources to dislodge the
defensive force. The Chinese only need to hold out, avoid a military conflict
for as long as they could. Everyday of peace or no war, the Chinese are winning
on the economic front. Everyday of no conflict, the Americans are spending and
consuming their dwindling resources on the soldiers, equipments and bases. There
is no way for the Americans to maintain such a huge military force in peace
time. The attrition rate will mount on the Americans and pile up their
financial debt to bankrupt their economy. It is a very expensive game that the
Americans are playing. It is all cost. To the Chinese, the cost is relatively
low and they are amassing wealth on the economic front. They can go on and on,
getting richer and richer, and militarily stronger, without fighting. The
Americans will sink deeper and deeper into debt to maintain the huge military
build up for a war that the Chinese would not engage.
The
Chinese are on the offensive in the economic front while holing up in a
defensive stance on the military front. The Americans are on the defensive in
the economic front and draining their finances and in a waiting game on the
military front. The soldiers and the equipments are ready for war, waiting for
war. As long as the military front is not open it is at best a seige. In the
economic front, it is a different picture, with the Chinese on the offensive
and ambushing the Americans and cutting them off in every battle field and war
zone.
It
is a long war of attrition aiming at the pockets of the Americans. It is a war
of accumulating wealth and resources to the Chinese. While the Americans get
poorer with their huge expenditure on their military, the Chinese are getting richer
and a supporting a smaller budget defensive force that is on home ground and
keeping cost to the minimum.
The
Chinese are fighting a protracted war with no end date, an adaptation of
guerilla warfare in the world stage. The Americans are waiting to fight a war
that has no start date. Militarily it is all posturing and preparation, with no
open conflict, no declared hostility. Economically there is also no declaration
of war but there is a war in full swing. There is a tangential war but with no
military engagement. The Chinese are playing Wei Qi or Go while the Americans
are playing Checkers.
1 comment:
The Bitcoin value exceeded $1200 2 days ago, due to MASSIVE Chinese buying. No one knows how much Chinese govt action is involved. The Chinese have also been stockpiling gold -- which is now "cheap" compared to previous highs.
One of the keys to winning at warfare is to lure your opponent into playing the most asymmetric game where the power balance is tipped in your favour. The idea of "fighting fair" in a war is just ludicrous.
All warfare involves taking an "economic hit" by all actors -- military action costs real resources, as does economic warfare.
China's strongest play, IMO is to hit the US without firing a shot -- thus giving no REASON for the US to initiate military action. China is well positioned to take out the US economy and currency, but China will have to also accept the economic cost to itself. However being LIQUID and having a relatively small amount of sovereign debt -- (~23%) to the US (~106% with raising of the debt ceiling coming up again in Jan 2014) -- China can seriously damage the sputtering, slowly recovering US economy if it acted swiftly and decisively.
Taking out the US economy will have flow-on effects to other cuntrees, which could harm China's reputation. So if they do this, they will have to wear any "unintended consequences". If I were China, this is the game I would play.
After they've crashed the economies, China simply moves in and buy up all the BEST "distressed assets" around the world for pennies on the now-near-worthless dollar.
To "win" in the long term, direct military confrontation with the US and its allies must be avoided -- and actually by not engaging the US militarily, China will be doing the rest of Asia a HUGE FAVOUR.
If China-USA military action begins, the whole region will be filled by the US war machine -- bases set up everywhere, surveillance all over the place, the skies filled with armed drones. And US military presence in Asia fixed for the next 20-30 years. Once the US military sets up shop, they don't tend to leave. No. Don't engage the US, it is a losing proposition. No doubt the US strategists at the Pentagon will be goading China into direct military conflict. China has to be wise and non-reactionary and not be lured into a situation where they don't have the upper hand.
In other words, play the game you CAN win, rather than the game which might boost your ego in the short term.
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