First sign of a blow up in the South China Sea

One week after Obama made his hostile visit to Asia, signing defence pact with the Philippines and warning China it would go to war to defend Japan, tension has gone up several notches today. Vietnam has challenged China for drilling in the South China and provoking China to fire water cannon at its sea guard vessels sent to the Chinese rig. And the Pinoys have resorted to what they knew and had done best in the past by arresting Chinese fishing boats. It has been crying as if it was the victim of Chinese assertiveness but has gone back to its wild and wayward behaviour with the full support of the Americans. It is openly challenging China. The Pinoys had killed a Taiwanese fishing boat captain and have in many occasions arrested ships from Taiwan and China. This time with the American navy fleet engaged in a major exercise in the area, it found it opportune and embolden to arrest a Chinese fishing boat and its crew. The Taiwanese and Chinese have never done such a thing to the Pinoys.

There is no doubt that China would take these provocations lying down. All its diplomacy and attempts to avoid a confrontation with the Americans were in vain. The Americans have made it in no uncertain terms that it is going into open military conflict with China. China is now forced into a corner and must hit back. Running away from the Vietnamese and the Pinoys is not an option. It is going to be hard knocks and the Americans are going to show their allies that they would back them up militarily, force with force.

With the Americans wanting to show they are still the big time gangsters that called the shot, with the Chinese refusing to take the blows, the situation is all set for a full blown naval and aerial showdown. Both sides would be rushing their military hardware into the region to bolster their forces. China would have to made careful assessment if it is able to take on the Americans at this stage of its military build up.

Obama does not come for peace. The USA has never been for peace but about the use of force. Both parties, China and the USA, are not going to back down this time. The Americans have been working for this day and China has been preparing for this day knowing that it will come, sooner or later. They would hope it will come later, but it is not going to be one day late. It would start with the Vietnamese and the Pinoys attacking Chinese ships only to lure the Chinese to retaliate and the Evil Empire will say, ‘I told you, China is aggressive and will use force to deal with its neighbours.’ And here is Uncle Sam to the rescue. Uncle Sam is for peace. The use of force is not acceptable. Uncle Sam will observe International Laws to resolve dispute by the use of force. But Uncle Sam was the one behind all these tensions and inciting and provoking wars.

Now who is the evil one? Would China be up to it militarily to take on the Americans, or would China play its economic clout and exert pressure on the Americans in other areas?

Kopi Level - Green