11/28/2013

The Empire strikes back

China, an emerging superpower has stake its claim to its right to defend its territories and to reclaim territories lost during the years when it was weak. Its designation of an ADIZ over its air space and territorial seas that have been grabbed by Japan and used as a playground by the Empire is being challenged by both head on. The Japanese refused to recognize the ADIZ, like the Americans, and even ordered its commercial airlines, ANA and Japan Airlines not to comply with China’s request. The Americans have blatantly flown two of its biggest bombers through the ADIZ as a show of defiance, to show who is boss.
 

China is now forced to react. Not doing anything would expose its weakness and would encourage other pesky countries to dismiss its ADIZ as well. It is now a matter of how to react and how to keep an even keel without raising tension to a level when hostility is the next recourse.
 

There are many things that China can do on a graduated scale short of hitting force with force. During the days of Cold War, the USSR had repeated flown their planes into the British ADIZ unannounced. The British would respond by scrambling their fighters to meet the approaching Soviet aircraft. And they would fly side by side, waving at each other. This went on for many years until the pilots could even recognize each other as acquaintances. Both sides were just testing each other’s capability and resolve without raising the temperature. The Soviet bombers would fly in and the British would scramble to intercept. They would stay in the air until the fuel ran out. Both sides did not risk any hostile posturing.
 

This is one way China may deal with the Americans and even the Japanese aircraft in its ADIZ. The Japanese have been doing the same to Chinese aircraft in its ADIZ. At a higher level, China could do another Hainan Act when a Chinese pilot flew into the path of the American recce aircraft and allowed it to be rammed by the Americans. The Chinese pilot was killed but not before taking down the American aircraft that was forced to land and detained in Hainan. The aircraft was stripped into bits, with the Chinese having a preview of American equipment and technology. This act could be reenacted should the Americans push the Chinese too hard.
 

A variation to this could be the flying of drones into the path of the intruders and let them crash into it. Drones are difficult to control and an accident with the drones is highly possible.
 

In the case of civilian aircraft, this is a bit tricky as the safety and discomfort of many civilian lives will be at stake. Japan is willing to play this chicken game by risking the lives of its passengers. What would or could the Chinese do? When tested, the Chinese could force the civilian aircraft to land in a Chinese airport, escorted by the Chinese fighter jets. Very likely China would just send its fighters to escort the civilian aircraft out of the ADIZ, forcing it to make a detour to avoid the zone. Japan could retaliate by sending its fighters to escort the civilian planes of ANA and Nippon. Both fighters are likely to keep a comfortable distance apart like the coast guards in Diaoyu Islands. China only needs to keep up the pressure and the two airlines will loose passengers for fear of harassment, inconvenience or an accident.
 

There is always a high risk that the Americans and the Japanese would force the issue by firing at the Chinese or at the ANA or Nippon planes and accuse the Chinese of doing it, a false flag incident for an open conflict.
 

An open conflict is unlikely as the consequences would be grave. Should it happen, as a localized war, Chinese should have some advantage with the availability of SAMs, which are much cheaper to operate and less demanding on the boys in the air or in the ships. Would the Japanese and Americans push the limits? An open war would halt all economic activities in the region and aircraft and ships could be fired on. Time for testing the equipments and a prelude to the Third World War.

16 comments:

oldhorse42 said...

I suppose China could stage another Hainan incident by sacrificing one of its many cheap pilots to bring down another expensive and sophisticated american plane.
After all life is still cheap in China and an opportunity to study a capture american plane and pilot is rare.
Just one proviso, do not damage any golf course or my ancestral home!

Anonymous said...


FEAR NOT FEAR NOT.......

There will be no war!

Talk talk only!

Don't waste time on this!

Chua Chin Leng aka redbean said...

Ah Kok, this ADIZ very far from Hainan lah. Your Boon Chang chicken safe also.

For B52 at that height, even losing power it could glide to Jeju or some Jap islands nearby.

Anonymous said...

very 惊险 scenario yesterday, luckily the China airforce was very 定 . and all this is happening when Biden is visiting BEIJING next week . but by then would be all smiles between the two

Chua Chin Leng aka redbean said...

This issue not so easy. Middle East there is Israel who calls the shot. The Arab states were too weak to resist.

East Asia there is Japan who thinks it can stil call the shot and with the Empire on its side. One on one, Japan is no match for China. The involvement of the US would led to a world war of total annihilation. No one wins.

Anonymous said...

so how the Chinese public taking to the B52 challenge? cannot be too kindly one suppose. we could expect China to adjust its response in the near future?

Anonymous said...

WHAT THE FUCK...

behind the scene these politicians are fondling each other balls

b said...

I am sure the chinese know how to play this game well and then turn it into an opportunity for them to profit at some time. They are too sophisticated in terms of strategies and weaponry for them to understand.

Anonymous said...

Wow 300 plus, well done, but why only twp guys up there.

But anyway congrats red bean

Kaki

Anonymous said...

I finally thought of a good joke about redbean

Why did the chicken cross the road?

My Singapore News - Chua Chin Leng
-----------------------------------
Answer: To steal a job from a defenceless, hard-working Singaporean

Teo Chee Hean
Answer: What do you think?

Anonymous said...

Historical claims based on historical records if that can hold water, later African nation will lay claim to every countries since Africa is the cradle of humanity. Anyway the real reasons are oil, gas and EEZ. Well let the feeling go wild and wreck some America and Japanese stores to restore some balance for a bruised ego.

Anonymous said...

I just heard on the BBC Japanese and South Korean military aircrafts flew over China's self-declared ADIZ. Very soon the Philippine Air Force will do the same. Hahahahahahah!

Anonymous said...

@thomas ...

knnccb

knnccb ... i seriously meant it!

Anonymous said...

@November 29, 2013 10:09 am


well said...

please look into the mirror ..

knnccb .... it's fucking amusing

Anonymous said...

@Thomas Kim:
"ERRONEOUS CLAIMS OVER TERRITORY 1600 KM AWAY FROM ITS SHORES."
"AGAIN, NOBODY RECOGNIZES CHINA'S CLAIM ON THE ISLANDS."

Still ranting away, stewing over China's control of Tibet, using selective data as "evidence" to prove your points, accusing others of anachronism when you are no different. Common sense tells you that proximity or distance is no criteria for ownership. So the Falklands half a world away cannot belong to Britain, and Guam the same with your America, by your logic? Then Tibet, a contiguous territory to China, should be part of China, and Hawaii should not be part of your USA?

Historically your America has cynically and hypocritically condemned colonialism and imperialism, while building up it's own Empire. Not declaring that you have an Empire doesn't deny you have one, and by your convoluted logic, that you are not an Imperialist. And the Diaoyu Islands were acquired by Japan through its savage, milistaristic, imperialist expansion, and later condoned by your America. Nobody recognises ANYBODY'S claims on the islands. It is your blinkered eyes that only see China. Go on, carry on with your fulminations. Ciao.

Anonymous said...

Nobody recognises ANYBODY'S claims on the islands

Should read: Nobody recognises ANYBODY'S claims on the Spratlys and Paracels.