If Trump wins in November, NATO is going to be left
carrying the baby against Russia. Of course, that is till provided Trump
can be trusted to end the war in Ukraine. You can't trust Trump or any
USA President, all making promises that only holds for their four-year
tenure and casting everything to the wind.
Even if the Ukraine
War ends tomorrow, things will never return to normal between NATO vis a
vis the EU and Russia. For one, no more cheap energy is forthcoming for
the EU. The EU will have to continue buying expensive energy from the
USA and Russia mostly and discreetly under the table. Even Russian
energy under the table is not going to be cheap and will be according to
global price mechanisms. China, India and even Saudi Arabia will be
laughing all the way to the bank.
And what is that going to do
to the industrial landscape of the EU? More expensive products competing
against cheap products from China in the Global South. Can they
survive?
Now the EU is talking about seizing Chinese assets in
Europe, which is a signal for Chinese companies to start pulling out
from Europe. No more Chinese investments will go to Europe and the
message is also clear for those intending to set up factories in the EU.
They will treat Europe like a leper colony.
China is not
without places or opportunities to invest in. There is the Global South
that will welcome Chinese investments. Moreover, China is now opening up
its Western regions and moving factories from the Eastern coastal
region to the West, to take advantage of cheaper labor and also to
industrialize the Western part of China. The Chinese no longer will need
the EU to invest in.
Anonymous
3 comments:
Politicians in NATO do not care if the EU goes back to 'babysitting' after being hollowed out by de-industrialization after sanctioning Russia and decoupling from China. Who else is going to trade with or invest in the EU? Oh yes, there is still the UK, right? They can continue to slide down the slope clutching each other tightly together.
NATO can continue to threaten China with seizure of Chinese assets in Europe, but at what price? What Russia did against Western companies is already apparent, using the tit for tat method. Compared to Western assets in Russia, it is no exaggeration that USA and EU assets in China probably runs into trillions, which can also be collateral damage material. China already passed a law to enable seizure of foreign assets under a tit for tat move. But, of course, USA and EU leaders care two hoots about private assets seized by the Chinese. To them that is just collateral damage.
Russia and China can always trade with each other and there are the other countries in the Global South willing to engage in trade with China. Who does not want cheaper products instead of paying an arm and a leg for expensive toys from the USA and EU? Would Global South consumers be willing to pay three times the price of an EV made in USA or EU compared to China? Common sense will tell us who they will choose.
Looking at those leaders of NATO and EU, they are no strategists. Just babysitters scamming the European infantiles and stealing their lunches.
Without NATO, there will be no wars and lesser trouble in Europe.
Without the USA, there will be no wars and lesser trouble in the world.
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