4/24/2020

Covid19 - Statistically speaking, Singapore

From what was reported in the news, here are some numbers that were reported, foreign workers about 300,000, number of test taken daily between 2,000 to 2,500 and the number tested positive about 1,000 daily in the last 4 consecutive days.

Assuming 2,000 tests were administered on the foreign workers daily, to complete testing 300,000 workers would take 150 days or 5 months, or another 4 months given about one month is over.

With 1,000 positive cases out of 2,000/2,500, it means easily 40% of the tested workers were infected. Extrapolate this to the 300,000 FWs, Singapore can expect an eventual number of infected cases from this group to be around 120,000.  This number sure looks frightening and high. Be conservative, say 20% is infected, then the number we are looking forward to is 60,000 when all the FWs are tested in 4 months time.

Another big group that is not in the radar yet is the foreign maids.  So far so good, have not heard of any maids being infected. There are something like 250,000 maids here, my guesstimate.  Assuming 10% is infected, that is another 25,000 potential confirmed cases.

Put the numbers together, going forward, it is foreseeable that the final score in the next few months could be way above 60,000 conservatively speaking.

Is there a plan to test all the maids in the island? Perhaps not since not many maids are infected. If this is true, well, all is good. If significant number of maids are infected, this would be a very serious problem as they lived among us, in the homes of Singaporeans and PRs.

Statistically speaking, the picture is not pretty. The cheapest ticket to join the top 20 countries infected by Covid19 at this moment is 16,000 cases.  With 11,178 cases now and a daily increase of about 1,000 cases, Singapore will be qualified to join this esteemed group of 20 countries in the world in a week's time. Singapore will be infamous as the smallest country with the least population of less than 6m but with confirmed Covid19 cases way above its weight.

Will it or will it not happened? Can Singapore avoid joining the top 20 countries? One way to avoid this is to follow Trump, deliberately not testing or testing as few as possible. Trump did that by controlling the acquisition of test kits and not making them fast enough. As long as they don't test, the numbers will not go up. But this is lying, cheating and only Trump and Pompeo are good at this, their cheating ways.  Cheating is second nature to them.

39 comments:

Anonymous said...

The future is unknown. We do not have the luxury of the benefit of hindsight. We are flying the plane without instruments and hope for the best.

Anonymous said...


Hahaha....

Your figures look very very very very very very very very scary!

Hahaha.......

Anonymous said...

A few hundred thousands in a tiny dot of less than 800 Sq Kilometre.
Grave and grim indeed.


Anonymous said...

COVID-19 Singapore: Outcome Is More Or Less Predictable - My Humble Prediction So Far So Good"

It is quite clear, from the ways the COVID-19 Task Force has been handling the pandemic, how the situation has become as it is now and can be easily foreseen what it's going to be.

This is how the Force has been with you, dealing with your health in small step by step cautious way like a virgin:

From "Do not wear musk when you are well",

To "I will not discourage people from wearing masks",

To "You are advised to wear a mask when in public",

To "You must wear a mask when in public" but no fine, only warning when caught.

To "You will be fined $300 for not wearing a mask in public, for first offence. Repeat offence is $1000 fine."

Singapore is such a FINE City!

Anyone who is fine with not wearing a mask because he thinks that he is fine, will be fine to get a fine!

Total foreign work force in Singapore, according to Tharman five years ago, is 2 million. It should be about 2.4 million now.

The total of lowly-paid but highly levied foreign hard-labour workers and maids easily amount to 600,000. In a hide-and-seek information environment, seemingly deliberately engineered to confuse or mislead and then POFMA you, only guesstimates are available. Whether the guesstimates are reliable or not is immaterial. There has to be a basis to calculate and project ahead. Give and take a deviation of 5%.

As such, I predict the total number of the infected foreign workers and maids should be at least 180,000 (30% of 600,000). Why? Because one infected person can easily infect another three persons, conservatively. That means 10% becomes 30%.

What about those infected by the foreign maids/nurses staying at emoloyers' homes and nursing homes?
I dare not venture to imagine!

Anonymous said...

COVID-19: Japan Same Same Singapore!


Until recently, Japan had been one of the success stories in controlling the spread of Covid-19. In February and March, Japan succeeded in suppressing early cluster outbreaks, and in keeping total infections in the hundreds. So it seemed to be. Or was it because of lack of testings, so that the figures did not really reflect reality?

Now Tokyo appears to have a developing epidemic with more than 3,500 cases confirmed. Nation-wide there are now more than 12,000 confirmed cases. Same as Singapore?

Doctors in Tokyo say the State of Emergency declared two weeks ago was too little too late. It is not slowing the spread of the virus enough to stop new cases overwhelming the hospital system.

The health-care system in Tokyo is on the verge of breaking down.

The fate of Singapore's health-care system is being tested now and the result will be known very soon. Sooner than later.

Still thinking of going ahead with the General Elections at this dire straits?


Anonymous said...


Hahaha.....

Don't worry lah!

Don't forget...our future PM is Mr Heng!

Heng Heng Heng!

Everything will be HENG and ok! BEST-EST!

So.... don't worry!

Anyway, like that can GE? GE very Very VERY soon? End May or June or year end or next year? Any news?

Hahaha.....

Anonymous said...

Dr Liu Thai Ker: Singapore Needs to plan for 10 Million Population

SOURCE:
https://thepeakmagazine.com.sg/interviews/feature-liu-thai-ker-2/

Let's hope Dr Liu does not get infected by one of his 10 million population.

Anonymous said...

If infection rate among the foreign workers is 40%.

What is the infection rate of:

1. Food handlers like cooks and hawkers?

2. Bus drivers and taxi drivers?

3. Nurses and doctors?

4. Cashiers?

5. Maids living with Singaporeans?

6. Singaporeans?

Anonymous said...

GE next few months, Opposition Parties sure get bumper sales.

PAP, despite spending so many billions of taxpayers' money, will still lose big because of the poor handling of the COVID-19 corona-virus pandemic.

Anonymous said...

COVID-19 Testing: Charity Begins At Home

Instead of going all out to test (2000 per day only) foreign workers, the Singapore government should allocate equal, if not higher, priority to testing Singaporeans, irrespective of whether they are asymptomatic staying at home or detected at clinics and hospitals, or hospitalized.

If this is not done, in another two weeks to one months time, there will be a surge in the number of confirmed cases of local Singaporeans and PRs.

Charity begins at home. Getting distracted and lost focus, setting priorities wrongly, will lead to dire consequences, inevitably irreversible.

This can also be contributed to a series lack of vision and common sense in leadership qualities.


Anonymous said...

That is also the position in all countries. All figures released by all countries are merely the tip of the iceberg, all fakery, because comprehensive testing will never be possible. How many percent of their population have most countries tested? Some probably do not want to widen testing, in order that less infections need to be reported. Isn't that the reason why countries like North Korea and India have been targeted for falsification of numbers? What about the US testing just 1% of it's population, yet crying foul about China?

Testing of foreign workers are easier than the general population, because they are concentrated in designated dormitories. Testing even the whole dorm is not a problem, that is why so many infections have been discovered. That is not surprising considering the close contact they made inside the dorms.

Now, they are looking more closely, and in the right direction, at the contact tracing of foreign workers related to their visit to Mustafa Centre.

Anonymous said...

Parrots can only repeat the same words on every occasion. Without fail when it appears!

Anonymous said...

So far, it has only been reported that 50 children have been infected by the COVID-19 Viruses. This figure is not realistic and not easily believable.

I have suspected there could be many more. Could be a thousand at least. Otherwise, the stupid and stubborn Ong Yeeeeeee Koon-king would have continued to keep the schools open.

Anonymous said...

@ April 24, 2020 11:30 am

You are correct.

The foreign workers are already quarantined in their dormitories.
- cannot spread virus to community anymore

So equal priority should be given to testing maids and Singaporeans.

Do you think PAP and LHL have the ability to manage a population of 10 million?

Anonymous said...

China, meanwhile has sent medical supplies to the USA. In spite of that the USA is still criticising China on many fronts. Ungrateful dogs!

It has been reported that some US States have ordered and received medical supplies from China for use by doctors and nurse in hospitals, independently from the Federal Government, that refrain from helping them to secure those supplies, but those supplies were later hijacked by the Federal Government instead. Is this how a democratic and humane Government treat it's own people? Immoral and basically corrupt to the core!

Further, it looks like the drug advertised by Trump as effective for treating Covid19 is not working. But Trump and his cronies already made their pile by such actions by buying their stocks, push up the price and already made all the dough.

Virgo 49 said...

Wow March 28 Auckland to Singapore pilot also COVID.

Don't know how many passengers and SIA crew affected?

Luckily my dusghter Wellington to Singapore.

Virgo49 said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Virgo 49 said...

Right Anon.

PAP have the advantage in the Media Corpse and Shits Times in online campaigning but the Opposition will attract more audiences as they be more interested in their platforms and manifestos.

If still CB, they be bored and tuned in to more social media platforms like Mr RB or others for information and discussions.

Thus, the Oppo will havr greater advantage as less even attended PAP rallies what's more Online.

Cheers

Chua Chin Leng aka redbean said...

The Americans tested only 1% of their pop and already showed up 800,000 confirmed cases of infection. What kind of infection number would it if they tested 10% of their pop or more....8m, 10m?

There is a very startling and sinister motive why Trump refused to test more, refused to use the defence act to ramp up production of test kits, refused to acquire more test kits.

I will explain this in my next post tomorrow.

Anonymous said...

@ redbean

If you test 100 persons, and found 5 infected.
- your infection rate is 5%

If you test 1000 persons, you will likely find 50 persons or 5% infected.

The percentage of people infected will not change.

Anonymous said...


Hi 1118am & V1206pm

Opposition parties win BIG BIG at the very very soon GE?

Hope both of you are not wrong!

They are oso very very confident of winning BIG BIG too!

We shall see whether S$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$ work!

What think you?

Anonymous said...

Do you think our Ministerial Task Force should also be tested?

Tested for what?

Covid-19, intelligence, or insanity?

Anonymous said...

Ownself ask, ownself answer.

Anonymous said...

Hello Uncle Redbean, please please do not be a scaremonger. Your PAP government being so efficient and capable and well paid will be able to solve all problems from COVID-19. Don't worry too much and please do not pour cold water over the fantastic rules and regulations issued by your PM and his team. After all, if you pay good salary to your ministers you can expect good quality governance, RIGHT??? Just like paying for an expensive car, TV, PC or anything else, the more the cost, the better the quality. So Singaporeans, do not worry, you are all in safe hands. GE is coming round the corner, give them 85% mandate. Hahahahaha.

Virgo 49 said...

Dotard Trump told Americans to inject disinfectants to beat COVID virus.

Drink disinfectants better. Faster to Hell.

Anonymous said...

I think Trump's supporters will believe him. Trump is the head of a 'cult of living deads.'

Somebody commented that these 'living deads' may even be given Trumps' pee to drink and say it is lemonade.

Anyway, there have been so many possible cures being trotted out, from drugs for aids, to drugs for malaria, to nicotine in cigarettes, to exposure to lots of sunlight or ultra violet light, to drinking cow urine in India. Nothing is impossible! More cures will be invented!

If the exposure to lots of sunlight is true, why are foreign workers working everyday in the hot sun by the roadside, which we can see everyday, still getting infected?

And for the mad dog who wanted to detonate a nuclear device inside a hurricane, suggesting the injection of disinfectants into human bodies to beat covid19 takes the cake. Must have sold his soul to disinfectant manufacturers!

Anonymous said...


Hi 457pm

Not to worry!

U sure very very happy!

PAP smelly smelly at least 89.9% at the next GE!

Cheers.....



Anonymous said...

The manufacturer for Lysol issued a statement warning against any internal use after the president suggested that people could get an 'injection' of the disinfectant. Aired on 04/24/2020.

Anonymous said...

Randall Davis

They absolutely had to do this.Have you noticed the collective intellect at a Trump rally? Scary stupid.

Jim McKee

"Fake news! Pass the bleach!" - Trump supporters

Visor Overwatch

Clorox and Lysol stocks just went up overnight.

jjgg said...

How come this virus can stop geylang..casinos..racehorses shopping centres..stop economic activity..gangsters..everything can stop..
Only cannot stop sleepy Jo from continuing to sleep..oso cannot stop big mouth CCS n definitely cannot stop puffy gan from messing up another medical bombshell.. why are these people even still around??? Singapore so jia lat meh? Really so short of ministerial talent..you take away 25% of your pay..hands up which small business owner didn't suffer drops of 65% to sales..still got a lot of expenses u know..who is bearing the brunt of your mismanagement..how many bankruptcies u want to see? All the shop rentals are secured by personal guarantees of the lessees u know..u want to pass a law requiring all owners to forgive all the rentals? Do that la..help the little people for a change. The little people are the ones who gave you the job anyway. You really screw them.. didn't you

Anonymous said...

Lysol really is afraid Trump's lunatic supporters will really follow his advice.

The clowns in the circus in the USA are getting more and more hilarious!

Virgo 49 said...

Wow, just ordered from Q0010 Lysol yesterday.

Delivery tomorrow.

Luckily no price increase.

If really works must try.

After CNB nab them Changi Resorts.

Anonymous said...

Property prices dropped by about 1.5% and sales dropped by 12.5% in the first three months of 2020.

The effects of COVID-19 Pandemic has yet to take the full course.

Next quarter should see the full impact of the damage done to the real estate sector by the Singapore Government's COVID-19 Circuit Broken Breaker.

Those cash-rich ministers who think of benefiting from investments in real estates should be able to make a kill in July/August?

Profiting from others sufferings is called unscrupulous, ruthless cruelty.


Anonymous said...

India Is Preparing For A Military Offensive Against China

India, aiming to overtake China to dominate and control the Eastern region of the world, has opened a new all-weather highway in a disputed part of its border with China.

This is to enable Indian Military faster movement of troops and artillery, in preparation to launch a coordinated attack from the West of China simultaneously with the US Military attacking China from the South China Sea, and Taiwan and Japan attacking China from the East.

It will be a three-pronged offensive to annihilate the Chinese population and capture their territory.

The new bridge, which can take 40 tonnes of weight, was built in Arunachal Pradesh in India's remote northeast, a region that's claimed by China and near the scene of previous clashes.

Border intrusions by Indian troops into Chinese territories have risen 50 per cent in 2019 compared to the previous year.

China must not take this likely. Military preparedness has to begin now to counter any unforeseen circumstances in the future.

Chua Chin Leng aka redbean said...

India cannot forget the humiliating thrashing by China in the 1962 Sino Indian Border War. This is India's Achilles Heel and nightmare for centuries to come until India sort this out and admitted that they started the war thinking how great they were and ended up being slammed. They asked for it. The situation is still the same today, still the same mentality and thinking how great this dysfunctional slum country. If they try, they would get a bigger wallop this time.

What the Indians failed to see is that it is so easy to take over the American Empire without firing a shot and acquire the world's Number One status immediately by just sending their top talents to take over everything in the US and UK. Both are dying powers and unable to produce the talents they used to during their heydays.

Boris there is nothing to talk about. Trump is a clown and is the best man they could find to be their President. His contender in Nov is sleepy Joe that Trump even joked about.

It is much much easier to take over declining Empires than to fight an ascending power. Modi must think carefully on his ambition and strategy to be the world's number one superpower. Go West instead of go East. Taking on China is a mismatch.

Virgo 49 said...

Just one Precision Missle will destroy their Bridge.

Take years to built and just five mins to destroy.

Cheers

Virgo 49 said...

Kishore said Indian talents took over the Top jobs in UAssA and the UK.

But see so many of them goes kaput. Banks and other conglomerates.

That's why our Modo or Bodoh Goh also thought that they can do so for Sinkieland.

Wore their traditional dhoti and kamasek.

Giving out awards to the Special children.

Have 2.3M of them here to even screw our local Uncle Sinkies.

Only 10 to 20% of locally transmitted infections and they blamed and harassed the Sinkies wheras their talented foreigners had 80% of the infections and they can kow towed and assured that Moody that they be well taken care of.

Poor Sinkies fined, jailed and harassed like concentration camps. Even now void decks concrete slabs of seats also sealed up. Old folks had to sit on floors to rest their tired feet after some exercise.

How many wasted millions to house all their blunders.

Anonymous said...

What is the cost for more than half a million foreigners jobless here and needing medical care and support for daily needs? Just testing them and providing them with medicare by our world best doctors and nurses, not fake doctors would cost a bomb.

Anonymous said...

What is one more highway if it can be destroyed with one precision hit? And if war really breaks out between China and India and the highway becomes unusable, what is India going to do next? The war has started, they needed the highway and do they have the time to build another?

Meanwhile, what about those troops and logistics that have already used the highway to move closer to China. They will be cut off from mass supplies for good. They can move supplies by air, but how much can the Indian Air Force do if Chinese missiles can easily take them out. Those Indian troops now close the China will be sitting ducks, waiting to be slowly slaughtered. They will become 'Indian Duck' to rival 'Peking Duck'!