Can the US Provide Promised Security Guarantees to DPRK?

US Holds Major Key to Unlock Korean Peace

The 2019 DPRK-USA Vietnam Summit will see US President Donald Trump meeting DPRK Supreme Leader Kim Jong-un in Hanoi, Vietnam, from 27-28 February 2019.  This is their 2nd meeting.

In their 1st Singapore Summit last year on 12 June 2018, US President Trump committed to provide security guarantees to the DPRK, and DPRK Chairman Kim Jong-Un reaffirmed his firm and unwavering commitment to complete denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula. 

Immediately after the 1st Singapore Summit, the DPRK dismantled their nuclear test and satellite launch site at Sohae and shut down a long range missile factory near Pyongyang.  DPRK in fact has not conducted any nuclear weapon test or fired any inter-continental ballistic missile (ICBM) since 28 July 2017.  DPRK also concluded peace agreements with South Korea committing to perpetual peace and no war.

US President Trump in fact declared that Pyongyang was "no longer a Nuclear Threat" after the 1st Singapore Summit, and cancelled joint military exercises between the US and South Korean Air Forces in the Korean peninsula.

The DPRK also released 3 US citizens arrested and imprisoned for alleged spying, and returned the remains of 55 US soldiers killed in the Korean War.  DPRK also ceased its domestic anti-US propaganda.

However, the US has yet to provide a framework or any details of its DPRK security guarantees agreed in the Joint Statement of the 1st Singapore Summit.  

The US holds the major key to unlock sustainable peace in the Korea Peninsula US. Without categorical security guarantees, it is unreasonable and unrealistic to expect a complete DPRK unilateral denuclearization whose process she has already begun.   

History supports the DPRK’s ambivalence and hesitancy as she lacks confidence and trust in the US Congress’ support of President Trump’s Korean peace initiatives.  

Current domestic politics in the US increasingly make it difficult for President Trump to fulfill his security assurances to the DPRK.  A broken and corrupt US political system has damaged much of American capability to govern effectively. An otherwise highly professional intelligence community network has been rendered dysfunctional by corrupt and highly politicized senior intelligence leaders to cast deep credibility on its own findings.    

The DPRK and the world also remembered vividly US duplicity and role in the 2014 Ukraine Deception and Double-Cross.
In December 1994, the United States, United Kingdom and Russia signed the Budapest Memorandum, providing security assurances against threats to Ukraine's territorial integrity in return for Kiev's giving up nuclear weapons.  No less than US Presidents Clinton, Bush and Obama also reiterated absolute US guarantee of these assurances over the following 20 years.   

In 2014, the US stood with the world alongside the feckless United Nations in abject impotence and inept incompetence to watch Russia invade and annex Crimea, a province of Ukraine. The United States' failure to honor the Budapest Memorandum clearly emboldened Russia as she proceeded to instigate and support military aggression in the Ukrainian Donbas region.  Over the past 5 years, over a million Ukrainians have been displaced with more than 10,000 killed and thousands wounded.

The undermining of the Budapest Memorandum is especially significant because this treaty solemnised and formalised Ukraine’s decision to give up its nuclear arsenal in exchange for territorial guarantees from major powers.
This is EXACTLY the essence and core intent of the Singapore Statement of the 1st US-DPRK Summit.

Indeed, would Russia have attacked and annexed Crimea if Ukraine had retained a few of its nuclear weapons when she agreed to denuclearise under the Budapest Declaration?  Highly unlikely!

On the eve of the 2nd DPRK-USA Vietnam Summit, it is paramount for the US to restore credibility to its integrity as a powerful nation trusted with global responsibilities. If the US remained sincere and willing to be the DPRK’s only conditional guarantor of her security, US President Trump and the US Congress must be willing to underwrite with concrete actions the sustainable peaceful stability of the Korean Peninsula. 

Unlike the Budapest Memorandum, the US must commit to unambiguous, unequivocal and categorical international treaty such security assurances to the DPRK’s satisfaction so as to persuade the latter to stop developing her nuclear deterrent and to depend on US protection.  Achieving success at the eventual goal of DPRK’s denuclearization depends entirely on the US. 

In the aftermath of US’ failure to honour the Budapest Memo, Brad Blakeman, former adviser to US President George W. Bush and the former president of the national security group Freedom’s Watch asked: “The US has no credibility. Why would anyone enter into an agreement with us now?” 

The DPRK and the world will now be watching the US, particularly in whether President Trump and Secretary Pompeo, with the US Congress, would restore credibility and trust in American promises of security assurances for the DPRK.  And these promises must go beyond mere words of diplomatic declaration and statement.   

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Titiana Ann Xavier said...

The Korean Armistice Agreement was signed in 1953. It was supposed to ensure cessation of hostilities. 66 years have passed before Uncle Sam wants peace. North Korea and Uncle Sam can talk till the cows come home. At the end of the day, the North Koreans must remember that Uncle Sam's promises and guarantees are worth no more than the piece of paper in which they are written.

Many countries have been played out by Uncle Sam which includes its own native Americans. So the North Koreans can trust Uncle Sam only at its own peril. Even Iran cannot escape Uncle Sam's treachery despite UN's guarantee to end sanctions. Uncle Sam has no scruples nor integrity.

Ⓜatilah $ingapura⚠️ said...

@ weak understanding of human nature:

Whether the US can walk its talk is unimportant. No one can say for sure. And what happens in the future in a world of shifting geopolitics, regional politics and domestic policies of cuntries involved is way too complex to analyse and predict accurately.

What is does boil down to is is whether the sitting US President can SELL the idea to the point where the other side BUYS into it.

IMO, Trump can. He can sell anything. Whether or not he or his successors deliver as stated is a completely separate and unrelated issue.

The future is unpredictable. Human nature involving one-on-one dealmaking is predictable.

Ⓜatilah $ingapura⚠️ said...

"In theory, there is no difference between 'theory' and 'practice'. In practice, there is"

Anonymous said...

When dprk and rok agreed to "no war forever", peace has already returned to korean peninsula.
When dprk denuclearise or not, is irrelevant and immaterial.

Titiana Ann Xavier said...

Russia's and China's presence will be felt in Trump-Kim Summit 2 in Vietnam. Russia and China have kept the peace in the Korean Peninsula despite Uncle Sam putting more than 30k boots on the ground. Uncle Sam's military budget is out of control. The bases maintained by Uncle Sam is bankrupting the country. South Korea just agreed to pay 1.03 trillion won (S$1.24 billion) from 960 billion won in 2018 to Uncle Sam to host its troops.

Uncle Sam always negotiate from a position of strength. North Korea must do likewise.
Should North Korea blink under pressure from Uncle Sam, it will lose big. The unification of the 2 Koreas are at stake.

Virgo49 said...

Farking South Koreans already too many Hell-you-ullahs and bananas are USA Lackeys.

Talked Peace with Kim like Bros. Now paying Extrotation Monies to USA Mafias 934USMillions out of fears and sucking their balls.

You think Kim will Trust Them?
After What's Agreement, USA will renege their Part of Agreement as they will always do.

Worse triple tongues than the Black Cobras.

Aggression genes in their DNA. They will never stop at creating chaos and wars.

Popeye warned the Rest not to do anything with China and Huawei.

Their Military War Machines and Upkeeps for Wars must not be stopped.

Even now Lee Chiu tried to hint but no guts to hit direct telling ASEAN to learn the ME misfortunes as created by the Americunts.

ASEAN is a joke.They heed his lecture?

Cannot even extradite a robber from THAILAND to Singapore.

Thais are the worst Traitors in the part of the World.They have the Japs free passage to Matland and Sinkieland.

Still Sinkies loved to go there.I for one avoid their country.

Those who loved their Vices will like to go there

Anonymous said...

US can guarantee N Korea security --- just offer it to become 51st state of US, and provide Kim dynasty perpetual contract for percentage of GDP produced by the new N Korea state of US. Win-win-win. Win for Kim. Win for US. And win for N Korean people. They will boom like Japan in 1980s, S Korea in 1990s, Shenzhen in 2000s.

Anonymous said...

Have the Americans abide by any of their agreements and guarantees? They only do so when it is in their interests.

Would a sheep believe in the guarantee of a wolf that it would not eat the sheep?

The daft just would not learn from history.

Anonymous said...

After all this, what if Trump gets impeached and someone else become US President? As it is, Trump is standing on shaky ground at the moment. There is no guarantee he will serve out his term, not to talk about re-election.

What will be the scenario then?

Titiana Ann Xavier said...

Uncle Sam is running a protection racket. The South Koreans are forced to pay 1.03 trillion won to Uncle Sam to buy a safety net. It is a national disgrace. Uncle Sam sidelined South Korea in its summit talks with North Korea. Uncle Sam has shown the world that South Korea is a spineless stooge. The political situation has not changed since Syngman Rhee was installed as a lackey of Uncle Sam from 1948 to 1960.

Uncle Sam has enslaved the South Koreans and put them in perpetual chains. Once a proud people but now hanging their heads down in shame.

Anonymous said...

After their first meeting Trump declared that North Korea is not longer a nuclear threat. How realistic is that pronouncement?

What has North Korea been doing since then? Kim obviously had dispersed his nuclear production facilities all over the North and continues with his programs. There were hardly any follow up by the US other than TCSS. Do we honestly believe this second summit will achieve anything? Kim just wants more time to relocate his arsenal and nuclear facilities.

No one in his right mind would believe that Kim will get rid of his nuclear ambitions after sacrificing so much and suffering all the sanctions over the decades. And all that will be given up just like that?

The other point as many have noted, is that how genuine is Trump's guarantee that once North Korea denuclearise completely, he is going to guarantee that Kim continues in power? Will Trump himself be able to guarantee his own position in power? Trump's words are not worth the sound of his fart.

If he can continue to lie to his own people day in and day out, what is one more lie about keeping Kim safe. I do not for one moment think that Kim would be that naïve to believe in Trump.