Eng Hen – A rude awakening

Was it the seizure of the armoured vehicles or was it the newly elected Trump Presidency that prompted Eng Hen to have a rethinking of what he said about the rise of China in Simi Valley, California?  The containment of China, provoking and inciting Asean to put pressure on China, bad mouthing China and selling the story that China is a destructive rising power were given a new twist in Eng Hen’s speech at the Reagan National Defence Forum over the weekend.

Before this forum, all the arrows were aimed at China and nothing good was said about China, a country that did not respect or live by international law, against freedom of navigation, bullying small nations when the truth was that little puny countries were trying to bully the sleeping dragon.  Eng Hen was telling the US and those at the forum that all these silly propaganda and provocation need to change. There were several takeaways from his speech which would be upsetting to our foreign minister and his MFA officials.

The first point, it was ‘“neither possible nor strategically necessary” to contain the Asian giant’s rise’. Of course the Americans would deny that, they would even swear in the name of their grandfathers that they were not trying to contain China with a blank face.

The second takeaway, ‘It is clear that China needs the world as much as the world needs China, and I think this interdependence will grow, not diminish.’ Now who wrote his speech? Definitely not from the MFA. This is likely a speech coming from the analysts in Mindef and would make many in the MFA very uncomfortable and unhappy. But Eng Hen is not going to hold back after his armoured vehicles were impounded in an embarrassing incident in Hong Kong and the likelihood of his boys training in Taiwan being scuttled by the MFA’s position on China.

The third takeaway, ‘that Singapore is “very careful and in fact, constructive” in adhering to the “One China” policy’. Would the reemphasis on adhering to the One China policy at this stage help in his boys training in Taiwan or is it too little and a bit too late after all the poking by the MFA at China? How constructive was Singapore towards the rise of China in the last few months, and would there be a change to go back to earlier days before Vivian took over the MFA and allowed his team to go wild to heckle China?

And another takeaway for the Americans, ‘There are many areas that (US) can focus on that are productive,’ he said. So the cat is out of the bag, the US had been counter productive in its treatment of relations with China, put it in a polite way without saying it, like telling China to abide by international law implying that China was not. Eng Hen added, actually reported as stressed, that a ‘US presence in the Asia Pacific “based predominantly on security is uni-dimensional and structurally brittle.”’ I am not sure how his good friend the hawkish Ash Carter would swallow these advices from Eng Hen in his policy of containing and isolating China by military means and alliances?

Eng Hen is the first minister to take a different view of relations with China following the recent fiasco by Singapore that led to the rub and snub by China.  The point is whether this is just his personal view, speaking as a private individual, or a Mindef view, or the view of the govt? Whatever, it is a first sign of fence mending with China, a job that the MFA has fouled up so badly that nothing they said would help. MFA better shut up and shut the mouths of its officials if Singapore wants to improve relations with China. Perhaps a few sacrificial lambs like the retiring of some of the more vocal anti China voices may soothe the nerves in Beijing.

Can the Americans still think they could contain and isolate China with the help of some silly Asian cronies? Would Eng Hen’s advice be taken seriously and lead to a rethink in American policies in the containment of China? Is Singapore rethinking its position and trying to do some damage control at this critical time? Is Eng Hen’s view a solitary view, a departure from the official govt’s view?