10/09/2005
general election - another more good years?
hsienloong is confident of strong support and a strong mandate. this is his first general election since taking over the helm, and it is a very important test case for him. the outcome of this general election will undoubtedly be a measure of his standing and acceptance by the people as the one to lead the country.
is his statement of a strong support a political or psychological statement? or does he really believe that it will be so? have all the problems and issues that are causing pain to the people resolved, or have they been swept under the carpet? maybe the pap really and sincerely believes that all is well, and the people are generally very happy with all their policies?
what then will be the battle cry? another more good years or another promise of a swiss standard of living? george yeo has just spoken, that their job is to serve the people, a catchphrase that many have forgotten. i am wondering how the people will receive it if the new slogan under the new leadership is...we serve the people! let us hope that the new slogan will not be something like more jobs as gardeners, or be proud to be a cleaner, or work till you die.
would i be stating something errorneous to say that the swiss standard of living has slipped away from many singaporeans? or don't expect more good years? the net worth of many singaporeans, i mean many, not the few elite, have drastically been watered down. many are still holding on to negative assets, cpf savings burnt or nothing to withdraw with the minimum sum in force, jobless or prematurely retired, unemployable because of age, ie above 45, and constantly increasing cost to basic necessities and essential services.
we are now faced with an army of healthy and young retirees, only good to become cleaners, sweepers and gardeners. and this group is growing by the days. the important point to make is that these are the believers, the converts of pap. they were the staunch supporters of the pap in the past. will they still remain loyal and as enthusiatic as before? without this group, the generation x and generation y are highly unpredictable. they have been brought up in a culture of self interest and instant gratification. if their needs and high expectations are not met, anything can happen. they have no strong memories of what it was like before. they only heard about a swiss standard of living and more good years.
will we see a change of wind in this general election?
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if one is to take a reading of where the votes will go to by using the demographic profile of the population, the conclusion is likely to favour the opposition parties. the demographic pattern has changed and shifted to favour the opposition. technically the pap shall lose in a general election.
let me just do a brief description of what i mean by the above remarks. the electorate can be divided into a few categories.
1. the 21-35. this is the generation y, a very unpredictable group with a mind of their own. and mostly young, rebellious and has a tendency to be anti establishment or anti order. pap will lose out 70:30 in this group.
2. the 35-45 group, the breadwinner, the group that is fully employed, many in the civil service/stats board or glcs. some at the peak of their careers and unlikely to want to rock the boat and risk the good times. this group is likely to be pap's bastion of support, maybe 60:40 to pap's favour. not that all are happy though.
3. the 45- 55, the sandwiched group, highly vulnerable and waiting to lose their jobs or already unemployed. many are having a tough time seeking employment or holding on to their jobs and with heavy family responsibilities. this is a bitter group, minus the successful ones, that will vote against the pap. another 70:30 in favour of opposition.
4. the above 55. the goner group, retired or waiting for gameover. nothing to look forward to, cpf got stucked if they still have any, and wondering how to get by. the medical bills will kill them first if not age. used to be the strongest supporters of pap. now highly disillusioned and don't care any more. very likely to vote against pap. 60:40 in favour of opposition.
how can the pap win the next general election? sure they will win again, by walkovers or if the opposition parties continue to put up clowns or people with a dubious past or with moral problems.
another big win for the pap is on the card. what an irony!
yesterday in parliament kan seng said foreigners should not meddle with singapore politics. then again he said foreign singers praising their hosts on stage were ok. and if they used the term 'prospective candidates' is definitely ok as it means any candidates.
does this cross the line into meddling with domestic politics? it seems not since it is ok. anyway it is recorded in parliament and reported in the media.
so come next general election we will probably see an influx of foreign singers on stage praising their hosts and asking the spectators to vote for the 'prospective candidates.'
the passing of the lta bill to jail fare cheats and imposed penalties has come out quite badly. the public feels that it is done in bad taste, where the govt went all out to support a public company to punish small time commuters who cheated a few cents.
now the question is whether the govt is for the people or for private commercial organisations. is it a kind of betrayal? better don't use this term otherwise people can get very angry.
a guy by name of daniel chan wrote to the straits times forum commenting that voters will not be easily taken in by foreign singers singing praises to their hosts. so there is no need to cramp down on foreign singers trying to be nice even if they dabble with a little domestic politics. so everyone should take it easy and let foreigners contribute a little niceties to our potential parliamentary candidates.
now that would be nice.
looks like after hsien loong's successful trip to china, a few more good news, and the annoucement of a few goodies, we will hear the announcement of the next general election.
it could happen before the year is over.
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