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3/15/2012

China hard landing

Confirmed, China had a hard landing. Clap, clap, clap. Finally, after so many years of doomsaying and praying, China had a hard landing. The analysts were right after all. China is going to collapse big time and go begging for help from the Western countries, the World Bank and the IMF. Zoeller would have his last laugh. See, we told you so.

Let’s look at the figures from Market Watch, WSJ, for October 2011. The latest figures could be more frightening but have not seen them yet. The trade surplus for August, September and October grew by US$17b, US$14.5b and US$17.76b respectively. The ‘slump’ in September was due poor demand in Europe. And the numbers really fell below the expectations of Newswires and Reuters, forecasting a growth of US$25.8b and US$24.9b respectively. These are dangerous numbers and signs of weaknesses and can become more widespread.

More dangerous signs, ‘Exports were 15.9% higher than a year earlier, though missing the average 16.5% growth projection from a Reuters survey of economists, and below the 17.1% rise in September.’

And according to ‘Bank of America-Merrill Lynch, Chinese exports grew 20.6% on average each month throughout the third quarter, while imports averaged 24.8% growth.’

The growing imports and shrinking exports must be troubling China and its decision makers. I am just wondering, would the US or European countries be happy to achieve these numbers? I bet many of them would love to have such a hard landing and probably asking for more. And I am sure many of the EU countries would love to switch places with China and celebrate every time the growth numbers failed to meet the forecasts of Newswires and Reuters but still registering a 20% average monthly growth. Even an average of 10% monthly growth would be like striking the biggest jackpot win.

I really love all these enlightening and frightening reports about China. And I don’t see why China should be crying with all these conjectured hard landings. Many would be so envious of these hard landings and would still crawl to China to ask for handouts. And they better pray that the hard landings would still allow China to be generous as there is no more Santa Claus out there except China or maybe Singapore.

6 comments:

Matilah_Singapura said...

They'll be ok. Yes, people will suffer...maybe even some civil unrest. BUT... Their strong point i that China has lots and lots of cash.

Other cuntrees are in debt. In other words, China can afford to pay for its "sins" (money printing, mainly), the other cuntrees cannot.

Chua Chin Leng aka redbean said...

These stupid analysts are like beggars hoping that Gates will lose a few millions and suffer. They forgot that Gates can lose a few hundred millions and still be very very rich.

Anonymous said...

Wen Jiabao talked about a 7.5% growth rate instead of 8%. They are carefully calibrating their growth to a manageable level without knocking down everything they have put in place.

A centrally managed economy by a team of able and talented men is much better than a free economy managed by reckless self serving crooks.

Joseph Tan said...

Thanks redbean, love your twistings.

Chua Chin Leng aka redbean said...

Greece and other European countries are getting a soft landing : )

Chua Chin Leng aka redbean said...

Stephen Roach former non executive Chairman of Morgan Stanley Asia, 'said that despite Europe's debt crisis, he expected China to grow between 8 and 9 percent this year, which is higher than the government's official target of 7.5 percent.
He added that Chinese leaders needed to take the "opportunity" created by the second global slowdown in three years to move even faster to rebalance the economy.'
© 2012 CNBC.com

What hard landing are those jokers talking about?