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5/09/2011

The vulnerability of GRC

The GRC was conceived and designed to act like impregnable fortresses or motherships that could not be taken down. It used to be defended by one minister in the prototype design but has since been reinforced by having two ministers in each ship. Couple with the fee of about $100k per ship, the barrier to entry is very high. The other difficulties are the availability of a number of quality candidates and minority candidates. Thus, putting up a GRC team to contest an election is a tall order. In this election the vulnerability of a GRC has been exposed. It is possible to bring them down. The high barrier to entry is not that insurmountable anymore. And with willing candidates stepping forward, the availability of quality candidates are also achievable. The Aljunied GRC is a pathfinder and more will fall in the same way. All it needed is a 10% of swing votes. In the last election, the WP polled 44%. This time round it polled 54.7%, an 11% swing of votes. And down the mothership came, like a big rock falling from the sky. Results of this election show that several GRCs are as vulnerable as Aljunied. Several polled more than 40% of popular votes for the opposition. East Coast has 45%, Tampines 42.8%, Bishan Toa Payoh 43%, Marine Parade 43.3% and Nee Soon 41.6%. All it takes is a 10% swing of votes and each of these will come tumbling down. The opposition parties have seen how it could be done and the next battle will be a different story. But the GRCs of tomorrow may not be the same or may not be around anymore. A lot of tweaking is likely to be introduced to strengthen the mothership. Maybe the $100k could be raised to $200k, maybe the number of candidates be raised to 10 or more, to raise the barrier to entry to a more painful level. Or maybe the whole scheme will be scrapped, as they are no longer that formidable and could no longer serve the purpose it was designed for.

2 comments:

Apa Papi said...

PAP need not lose power even if they get less than 50 % of the popular vote if the GRC system is still in place by the next election. By gerrymeadering you can put all the opposition voters(say 60%) in one GRC with two seats and all the PAP voters (40%) in GRC with the 87 seats. This is what Singaporeans wanted by voting PAP with more than 2/3 majority in the last election.

Chua Chin Leng aka redbean said...

Hi Apa Papi, Welcome to the blog.

From now till the next GE, a lot of fixing can be expected.