At the rate it is going, in 30 or 50 years time, the original Singaporeans will be a minority in the city state. Either they failed to reproduce or they migrated. We used to be 2m. Now we are nearly 4m with new citizens taking up almost 50% of the population. The number of new citizens will only go up with our addiction for more head counts.
What this means is that whatever the 2m original citizens inherited and owned of this island, they now own half, including half of the reserves. The new citizens are taking half of the original Singaporeans’ share of the country’s wealth, and half of the reserves too.
If the foreigners are allowed to keep pouring into the country, say they formed 80% of the population, it will mean that the original Singaporeans will be left with 20% share of the nation’s wealth. And this does not take into account the land and properties that were sold to the rich foreigners.
The bottom line is that Singaporeans will eventually own less of this island. Yes the foreigners will also be citizens and have the right to a share of the island. This is not unlike a family inheritance. All the children will have an equal share of the family wealth. Then the god sons and god daughters, the adopted children, the children of mistresses, all came and taking an equal share of the wealth. Would that be a desirable and acceptable outcome?
While there is still time, and the wealth and assets are still there, and since they will be distributed to new citizens eventually, with the main beneficiary being the eldest son profiting in the process, would it be better to divide the family wealth equally before it is gone?
When no one cares about ownership or inheritance, when the prodigal sons are selling everything they could sell for their own benefits, for their own good, the rest of the children better insist on a splitting up of the family inheritance fast.
If, hypothetically, the whole island can be sold off as a going concern, like a business, and every citizen gets an equal share of the sales proceed, with new citizens getting a pro rated smaller share, it could be a nice way out. Assuming each citizen can have a share of $3m, at 3m population, the going price is $9 trillion only. Make it $10 trillion with the extra $1 trillion to be share by the new citizens, with a formula for sharing based on their tenure as a citizen. This should make everyone happy. (The actual sales price can be worked out after a full valuation of what the islands and all the assets are worth. It may not take 50 man years to do that.) The final price could be double if there are competitive bids to buy this enterprise by the superpowers.
There are many advantages to such a proposition. Firstly, the country is looking more like a hotel anyway and citizenship or no citizenship is not going to mean anything any more. In fact citizenship is too burdensome, and full of responsibilities and unfairness. Secondly, Singaporeans are calling themselves international citizens and wanted to be international citizens anyway. Thirdly, the world is opening its arms to welcome rich migrants. With the windfall, a family of 4 could be richer by $12m, plus whatever they owned, and they can go anywhere and be welcomed as rich expats. Is that not what everybody wants, money and a good life, instant gratification? Or they can still choose to stay put, as residents here, without being a citizen and with no NS obligation to irritate them. Nice right?
The new owner can run this enterprise whichever way they pleased. They can retain the services of all the civil servants and GLC employees, including the cabinet, to run it as before. Or they can change whoever they want. They can bring in all the talented foreigners, rich, skilled, or whatever, increase the population to any number, let the prices of properties ballooned, and there will be no citizens to feel aggrieved. It is a private enterprise, a hotel, a real business concern.
In the meantime, the rich Singaporeans, with loads of money in their bank accounts, can choose to go anywhere and live happily ever after with their shares of the inheritance.
How about it, a referendum to sell off the country, lock, stock and barrel, for money? No more emotional attachments and kpkb about foreigners, about govt, about prices, about politics, just become rich and happy, as citizens of the world. What option is there anyway? The country is being given away on a silver platter to all the new citizens and is trumpeted as the next good thing to happen. As sure as the sun will rise! It will be gone.
Of course this sounds fictional. But with the entrepreneurial spirit of Uniquely Singapore, could there be a possibility that it could happen?
9/17/2011
9/16/2011
A revolution in Malaysia
First he took a major step to sweep aside all the historical baggage and irrational emotional misgivings to sign a deal with Singapore to exchange the railway land with comparable parcels of land. This brought a lot of ire from the old guards who criticized him for being a softie.
Then he talked about treating all the racial groups more equally to the displeasure of his UMNO radicals. Some even accusing him of selling out the interests of the Malays.
His minister also made an affront to conventional wisdom by wanting to limit the sales of properties to stop speculations and a spiraling of property prices.
Now he did the unthinkable, by abolishing the controversial Internal Security Acts that had outlived its usefulness and being abused by politicians to threaten, harrass and arrest political enemies.
The Malaysian PM Najib Razak is turning himself into a revolutionary of a kind that is beyond imagination. Who would ever imagine this aristocratic son of a conservative and ultra Malaysia Prime Minister taking such bold steps to change the ethos of the political culture of his country.
The changes that have started to roll under Najib will have wide ranging ramifications to the modernization of Malaysia and pull Malaysia from the doldrums of selfish and parochial politicking that is getting the country no where.
Malaysia is undergoing a revolution under Najib Razak. Would he go one step further by returning the banks and conglomerates they seized from the Malaysian Chinese and let the original owners run them back to health? Or would he be happy to let the bumiputras run them to the ground? The Malaysian economy has been stagnated for the last few decades when it could have flown off to the sky. The remaking of Malaysia cannot be done alone by the bumiputras and the bumiputra policies. Malaysia needs real businessmen and entrepreneurs to attain 2 digit GDP growth and to compete in the international markets.
The political revolution must follow with economic and social revolution.
Then he talked about treating all the racial groups more equally to the displeasure of his UMNO radicals. Some even accusing him of selling out the interests of the Malays.
His minister also made an affront to conventional wisdom by wanting to limit the sales of properties to stop speculations and a spiraling of property prices.
Now he did the unthinkable, by abolishing the controversial Internal Security Acts that had outlived its usefulness and being abused by politicians to threaten, harrass and arrest political enemies.
The Malaysian PM Najib Razak is turning himself into a revolutionary of a kind that is beyond imagination. Who would ever imagine this aristocratic son of a conservative and ultra Malaysia Prime Minister taking such bold steps to change the ethos of the political culture of his country.
The changes that have started to roll under Najib will have wide ranging ramifications to the modernization of Malaysia and pull Malaysia from the doldrums of selfish and parochial politicking that is getting the country no where.
Malaysia is undergoing a revolution under Najib Razak. Would he go one step further by returning the banks and conglomerates they seized from the Malaysian Chinese and let the original owners run them back to health? Or would he be happy to let the bumiputras run them to the ground? The Malaysian economy has been stagnated for the last few decades when it could have flown off to the sky. The remaking of Malaysia cannot be done alone by the bumiputras and the bumiputra policies. Malaysia needs real businessmen and entrepreneurs to attain 2 digit GDP growth and to compete in the international markets.
The political revolution must follow with economic and social revolution.
Help for big time gamblers
The National Council for Problem Gambling is coming out to help the big time gamblers. The Singapore govt is offering Indonesia help to put out fires by fire starters. And today we have a front page news that a trader of UBS lost $2.48b for betting and hedging on behalf of the bank.
The world is getting to be a stranger and stranger place by the days. What is the point of trying to help fire starters to put up fires? The problem is not with the fire but the fire starters.
The other question is, who are the big time gamblers? The guy who blown away his life savings of $200k or the guy who betted and lost $2.48b? Or is it the guy who sits at the top of a huge bank worth trillions of dollars and authorizing the bank and its army of gamblers to gamble on behalf of the bank? Or is it the politician that put out his soldiers to wars hoping to reap financial rewards at the end of the game? Or is it the politicians that spend and spend without a care of when they are going to pay back, or be able to pay back the money they have spent?
We have just seen how America nearly toppled over. We are seeing Europe on the brink of a financial disaster. Who are the gamblers that are gambling with the nation’s wealth?
Definitely not the politicians? Neither were the bankers and fund managers gamblers. They are legitimate investors, fund managers, taking calculated risks with other people’s money. There is no reason to call them gamblers, while they gamble away other people’s money, the bank’s assets, the nation’s reserves.
The world today is really run by gamblers of all kinds. Everyone is putting his bets for a quick profit for his own pockets but declaring that they are investing for other people’s benefits. Some even claimed to be investing for the long term. When bankers and politicians are looking for quick profits instead of making steady profits and returns by taking small and measured steps, the world can be easily toppled without the need to have casinos. Every stock exchange is now a casino. Every country is also a casino.
The world is getting to be a stranger and stranger place by the days. What is the point of trying to help fire starters to put up fires? The problem is not with the fire but the fire starters.
The other question is, who are the big time gamblers? The guy who blown away his life savings of $200k or the guy who betted and lost $2.48b? Or is it the guy who sits at the top of a huge bank worth trillions of dollars and authorizing the bank and its army of gamblers to gamble on behalf of the bank? Or is it the politician that put out his soldiers to wars hoping to reap financial rewards at the end of the game? Or is it the politicians that spend and spend without a care of when they are going to pay back, or be able to pay back the money they have spent?
We have just seen how America nearly toppled over. We are seeing Europe on the brink of a financial disaster. Who are the gamblers that are gambling with the nation’s wealth?
Definitely not the politicians? Neither were the bankers and fund managers gamblers. They are legitimate investors, fund managers, taking calculated risks with other people’s money. There is no reason to call them gamblers, while they gamble away other people’s money, the bank’s assets, the nation’s reserves.
The world today is really run by gamblers of all kinds. Everyone is putting his bets for a quick profit for his own pockets but declaring that they are investing for other people’s benefits. Some even claimed to be investing for the long term. When bankers and politicians are looking for quick profits instead of making steady profits and returns by taking small and measured steps, the world can be easily toppled without the need to have casinos. Every stock exchange is now a casino. Every country is also a casino.
9/15/2011
Malaysian Govt considering limiting home purchases
‘The Malaysian government may impose a one-house-per-individual restriction, according to Datuk Seri Ismail Sabri Yaakob, Minister of Domestic Trade Cooperatives and Consumerism.
He said that any individual who wants to acquire a second home must sell his /her first house and that the government is studying the possibility of approving only 10 percent rental increases for houses once a contract expires.’
Ahh, the immediate reaction from the smart sinkies is that this must be the stupidest thing to do. They have so much land and the only thing that needs to be done is to build and build and build, like what Singapore is doing. Just increase the supply and there will be no problem at all. Oops, I think to build and increase supply to prevent a housing bubble is only discovered by the smart sinkies recently.
Now, what is the issue? Malaysia has plenty of land, more than adequate to build a house for every citizen. And they are worried of the housing problem. In our little piece of rock when we are not careful and slipped, we may fall into the sea, and we are building and building and selling and selling as if land is unlimited. I think the Malaysians should come over and learn from our geniuses here. They can keep pulling out houses from a small hat like rabbits. It is simply magical.
Personally I am not sneering at the Malaysians. There is some wisdom to the crazy city folks thinking of selling everything when there is profit to be made. The housing game is going out of control, particularly when land is so limited. Everyone needs a home in the first place. And to turn homes into casino chips to be gambled on the casino table is reckless and irresponsible beyond words.
Not only Malaysia is worried about the housing gambling game. Australia and many other bigger countries are concerned about the wanton selling of land and properties to foreigners for speculation, which some called affectionately as investment.
There is a Chinese saying, die also dunno how to write. Housing and property investment are taking on a new shape and no longer the same any more. We may have something to learn from the Malaysians after all.
He said that any individual who wants to acquire a second home must sell his /her first house and that the government is studying the possibility of approving only 10 percent rental increases for houses once a contract expires.’
Ahh, the immediate reaction from the smart sinkies is that this must be the stupidest thing to do. They have so much land and the only thing that needs to be done is to build and build and build, like what Singapore is doing. Just increase the supply and there will be no problem at all. Oops, I think to build and increase supply to prevent a housing bubble is only discovered by the smart sinkies recently.
Now, what is the issue? Malaysia has plenty of land, more than adequate to build a house for every citizen. And they are worried of the housing problem. In our little piece of rock when we are not careful and slipped, we may fall into the sea, and we are building and building and selling and selling as if land is unlimited. I think the Malaysians should come over and learn from our geniuses here. They can keep pulling out houses from a small hat like rabbits. It is simply magical.
Personally I am not sneering at the Malaysians. There is some wisdom to the crazy city folks thinking of selling everything when there is profit to be made. The housing game is going out of control, particularly when land is so limited. Everyone needs a home in the first place. And to turn homes into casino chips to be gambled on the casino table is reckless and irresponsible beyond words.
Not only Malaysia is worried about the housing gambling game. Australia and many other bigger countries are concerned about the wanton selling of land and properties to foreigners for speculation, which some called affectionately as investment.
There is a Chinese saying, die also dunno how to write. Housing and property investment are taking on a new shape and no longer the same any more. We may have something to learn from the Malaysians after all.
Two legs good, one leg best – Redbean
We have the best political system in the world. We are not bragging, the results are out there for all to see. In a short span of 46 years, we have created a first world city state with affluence as a way of life. Everyone is rich in his own way. Poverty is an exception. Practically every child is well fed, housed and in school.
All these we have to thank our one party political system. We can get it so far because of a one party dominant political system. If we have a two party system or multi party political system, we will be in a quagmire like many third world countries. But we persevered in a non communist, non dictatorial, non autocratic one party democratic system. And it works.
And this one party system must go on. Anyone talking about a two party or multi party system is talking about ruining the good things and the good life here. The alternative parties have made advances in the last GE. And it is likely to gain more seats in future GEs. But can they really help and make our country better? Will they be competitive and yet cooperative with the ruling party? Will they be asking embarrassing questions that they should not be asking to make the ruling party look bad in the eyes of the people?
Definitely not. There are too many things that happened over the last few decades that need answers. The people are fed up and wanted to know what is happening, the truths that have yet to be told. Just by asking these questions would put the opposition MPs in a bad light, that they are destructive, trying to score political points. And when the questions get to a stage of being more than just an irritation, would the ruling party say that it is part of the political process, that all the questions were belated and should have been asked long ago and the answers given? Or would the ruling party ride the high horse of rough shod over the opposition party MPs and harden its position?
The latter is likely to be the case. A two party system just cannot work, at least until the carpet is lifted, the cupboard of skeletons aired before things can settle down to a new normal. Only then can a multi party system go ahead in a truly democratic way.
This looks unlikely and a one party system is still the only way, the best way to go forward. But a one party system must not be of another political hue. It must be the same ruling party. A one party system that can work is a one party belonging to the same ruling party, not just any one party. Two parties are good, one party best.
All these we have to thank our one party political system. We can get it so far because of a one party dominant political system. If we have a two party system or multi party political system, we will be in a quagmire like many third world countries. But we persevered in a non communist, non dictatorial, non autocratic one party democratic system. And it works.
And this one party system must go on. Anyone talking about a two party or multi party system is talking about ruining the good things and the good life here. The alternative parties have made advances in the last GE. And it is likely to gain more seats in future GEs. But can they really help and make our country better? Will they be competitive and yet cooperative with the ruling party? Will they be asking embarrassing questions that they should not be asking to make the ruling party look bad in the eyes of the people?
Definitely not. There are too many things that happened over the last few decades that need answers. The people are fed up and wanted to know what is happening, the truths that have yet to be told. Just by asking these questions would put the opposition MPs in a bad light, that they are destructive, trying to score political points. And when the questions get to a stage of being more than just an irritation, would the ruling party say that it is part of the political process, that all the questions were belated and should have been asked long ago and the answers given? Or would the ruling party ride the high horse of rough shod over the opposition party MPs and harden its position?
The latter is likely to be the case. A two party system just cannot work, at least until the carpet is lifted, the cupboard of skeletons aired before things can settle down to a new normal. Only then can a multi party system go ahead in a truly democratic way.
This looks unlikely and a one party system is still the only way, the best way to go forward. But a one party system must not be of another political hue. It must be the same ruling party. A one party system that can work is a one party belonging to the same ruling party, not just any one party. Two parties are good, one party best.
9/14/2011
China helping the ingrates!
The US and its European partners have been challenging and questioning China's sincerity as a responsible superpower. Bloomberg has just reported that China will be extending a helping hand to Italy, Spain, Greece and Portugal and also investment bank Morgan Stanley to overcome their financial crises. China was also instrumental in helping the US tied over their own financial crisis in 2008. And who caused all the crises?
The question is whether these ingrates would turnaround to bite China after they have been nursed to health by China's financial assistance. While the US is running around farting, and only offer words, the Chinese are going to unload its cash hoards to these crippled nations.
So, who is really the irresponsible one?
The question is whether these ingrates would turnaround to bite China after they have been nursed to health by China's financial assistance. While the US is running around farting, and only offer words, the Chinese are going to unload its cash hoards to these crippled nations.
So, who is really the irresponsible one?
Notable Quotes by Zaqy Mohamad
‘Mr Zaqy Mohamad, MP for Chua Chu Kang GRC and member of the PAP New Media Sub-Committee, said he's also seeing more Singaporeans "frustrated" by what they deem as "misinformation" online.’
I think the safest place for readers who want to read only the truth instead of misinformation will be the main media. These are official and professional news media whose articles are written by professionals who took great pride and integrity in their work and would double and triple check their work for accuracy and truth before publishing them.
All thinking people who are hungry for the truth and cannot figure out what is truth, untruth, misinformation, propaganda, half truths etc should just read the main media for their own safety. And for the unthinking, where else is the safest place to read the truth without having to think?
PS. Now that I am telling the official truth, I hope my blog will be classified as safe for reading and those who want to read only the truth and not misinformation will come visiting: )
I think the safest place for readers who want to read only the truth instead of misinformation will be the main media. These are official and professional news media whose articles are written by professionals who took great pride and integrity in their work and would double and triple check their work for accuracy and truth before publishing them.
All thinking people who are hungry for the truth and cannot figure out what is truth, untruth, misinformation, propaganda, half truths etc should just read the main media for their own safety. And for the unthinking, where else is the safest place to read the truth without having to think?
PS. Now that I am telling the official truth, I hope my blog will be classified as safe for reading and those who want to read only the truth and not misinformation will come visiting: )
Property prices to drop by 10%
The writing is on the wall. With the cooling measures in place, and the ramping up of supply, property sales are going down. So is my hope for my $1m HDB flat. The developers are worried. Some are calling Boon Wan to free up all the cooling measures to allow property prices to go up again.
The frenzy of the last few years, the high profits of the developers and speculators may now see some earning lesser than before. This is no good.
We must not violate the principles and virtues of running businesses for profits. The cooling measures are bad in preventing smart people from making a rip off from the property market. The developers will be discouraged to bid higher prices for land and may not want to develop more properties. Our GDP will suffer. Foreigners with their container loads of cash will not be pouring their money here and all of us will be poorer.
I support the developer’s call for the removing of all the artificial measures to curb property prices. The market forces must be allowed to dictate the prices of properties. And knowing how limited our land is, property prices can only go up in a free market system. The speculators and investors know the number game. All Singaporeans will be enormously rich if the land is free for sale.
Before the property market is let loose again, I have one caveat. The profits from the sale of all properties must be equally share by the Singaporeans. And a census be taken immediately and the profits will only go to Singaporeans who have been Singaporeans for at least 10 years. New Singaporeans shall not reap the profit of this selling Singapore exercise.
When this is done, there is no more need to curb property prices or any prices. Let the market do the talking. And no need to restrain influx of foreigners. The more they come the better it is as they will contribute to the higher demand. My HDB flat may not be $1m. It could be $2m or more.
When all the land has been sold, a tally should be conducted and all the profits share by the Singaporeans. And they can have the choice of staying here or migrating to bigger countries where land is aplenty. Singaporeans will have choices from the profits of a free economy and the freest country in the world. Everything is market price. Everyone has choices, to stay or to go, after collecting their windfall.
No need for any emotional attachment to this island. It can go to the highest bidder, as long as the money is spread to all Singaporeans. We can grow the population to 20m or 30m. It could be the most sophisticated and most modern city state. No need to restrict car ownership too. Just pay when one drives at a rate determined by the market and congestion on the road.
Singapore will be a truly vibrant, prosperous and international city of the world.
The frenzy of the last few years, the high profits of the developers and speculators may now see some earning lesser than before. This is no good.
We must not violate the principles and virtues of running businesses for profits. The cooling measures are bad in preventing smart people from making a rip off from the property market. The developers will be discouraged to bid higher prices for land and may not want to develop more properties. Our GDP will suffer. Foreigners with their container loads of cash will not be pouring their money here and all of us will be poorer.
I support the developer’s call for the removing of all the artificial measures to curb property prices. The market forces must be allowed to dictate the prices of properties. And knowing how limited our land is, property prices can only go up in a free market system. The speculators and investors know the number game. All Singaporeans will be enormously rich if the land is free for sale.
Before the property market is let loose again, I have one caveat. The profits from the sale of all properties must be equally share by the Singaporeans. And a census be taken immediately and the profits will only go to Singaporeans who have been Singaporeans for at least 10 years. New Singaporeans shall not reap the profit of this selling Singapore exercise.
When this is done, there is no more need to curb property prices or any prices. Let the market do the talking. And no need to restrain influx of foreigners. The more they come the better it is as they will contribute to the higher demand. My HDB flat may not be $1m. It could be $2m or more.
When all the land has been sold, a tally should be conducted and all the profits share by the Singaporeans. And they can have the choice of staying here or migrating to bigger countries where land is aplenty. Singaporeans will have choices from the profits of a free economy and the freest country in the world. Everything is market price. Everyone has choices, to stay or to go, after collecting their windfall.
No need for any emotional attachment to this island. It can go to the highest bidder, as long as the money is spread to all Singaporeans. We can grow the population to 20m or 30m. It could be the most sophisticated and most modern city state. No need to restrict car ownership too. Just pay when one drives at a rate determined by the market and congestion on the road.
Singapore will be a truly vibrant, prosperous and international city of the world.
9/13/2011
The People’s Association in 2016
Hypothetically, Year 2016 sees a new political party forming the govt. This can be any party other than the PAP. What would be the role of the PA? Would the PA turn around and appoint all the grassroots advisors from the new ruling party? Would it start to ban PAP MPs or PAP defeated MPs from becoming advisors to its grassroots organization like CCC, CCMC and RC and its organized activities?
Does it have any choice given the recent public statement of its role in supporting the ruling political party? One thing for sure, many of its staff will be axed and new leadership will be brought in to ensure that the PA does what it is designed to do, to support the ruling political party that is now the govt, and to remain apolitical.
How about Chee Soon Juan being appointed as CEO of PA? That will be exciting material.
Does it have any choice given the recent public statement of its role in supporting the ruling political party? One thing for sure, many of its staff will be axed and new leadership will be brought in to ensure that the PA does what it is designed to do, to support the ruling political party that is now the govt, and to remain apolitical.
How about Chee Soon Juan being appointed as CEO of PA? That will be exciting material.
So much dignity at stake
The Ministerial Salary Review Committee is still hustling together to hammer out a fair salary for the ministers and the President. It must be fair to incumbents and fair in the eyes of the people. What the Committee must not forget is that their recommendations would affect the dignity of our ministers and President when they get to meet their foreign counterparts. And the last thing they want to do is to diminish their dignity.
There is also another important consideration that they must not take it lightly. Our ministerial salary is a world record that is unbeatable by any country. Please make sure that this record is not broken or compromise.
One way to go about it is to declare everything up front, be it $5m or $10m. The recommendation must not be something like $1m plus one or more variable components that cannot be disclosed and protected under the Official Secrecy Act. This will rob us of the world record and also undermine the dignity of our ministers and President.
I hope the Committee knows what is good for Singapore, the ministers and the President and also the people. They must protect the dignity of the ministers and President at all costs, and also our world record of the at least 30 top paying politicians in the world.
There is also another important consideration that they must not take it lightly. Our ministerial salary is a world record that is unbeatable by any country. Please make sure that this record is not broken or compromise.
One way to go about it is to declare everything up front, be it $5m or $10m. The recommendation must not be something like $1m plus one or more variable components that cannot be disclosed and protected under the Official Secrecy Act. This will rob us of the world record and also undermine the dignity of our ministers and President.
I hope the Committee knows what is good for Singapore, the ministers and the President and also the people. They must protect the dignity of the ministers and President at all costs, and also our world record of the at least 30 top paying politicians in the world.
9/12/2011
Seriously, are opposition MPs a part of the govt?
Parliament is the legislative arm of the govt. Parliament is made of elected representatives of the people from all political parties to discuss national issues and make laws for the country. So, is Parliament a part of the govt? I don’t think anyone will say no. But some may insist that only part of the Parliament forms the govt. The opposition camp is not part of the govt?
Seriously, honestly, administratively, legally, are opposition MPs a part of the govt? We have an obtuse system that the opposition MPs are a small minority and can be easily ignored and dismissed of as not part of the Parliament, or part of the govt. If the representation of both camps is about equal, would anyone dare say that the opposition camps are not part of Parliament, and not part of the govt?
Every MP, no matter which party, sits in Parliament, and has equal rights to speak and vote for a bill. They are also paid by the country’s coffer too. Why are the opposition MPs seen as not part of the govt? Oh the majority party forms the govt so they are the govt, and the minority does not form the govt and thus not the govt nor part of the govt. They are just a part of Parliament which is not the govt of the country, which is part of the legislature, which has the power to make laws, but not the govt.
Very confusing arguments huh?
Seriously, honestly, administratively, legally, are opposition MPs a part of the govt? We have an obtuse system that the opposition MPs are a small minority and can be easily ignored and dismissed of as not part of the Parliament, or part of the govt. If the representation of both camps is about equal, would anyone dare say that the opposition camps are not part of Parliament, and not part of the govt?
Every MP, no matter which party, sits in Parliament, and has equal rights to speak and vote for a bill. They are also paid by the country’s coffer too. Why are the opposition MPs seen as not part of the govt? Oh the majority party forms the govt so they are the govt, and the minority does not form the govt and thus not the govt nor part of the govt. They are just a part of Parliament which is not the govt of the country, which is part of the legislature, which has the power to make laws, but not the govt.
Very confusing arguments huh?
Free spaces, free parkings
I was in Johore over the weekend, meandering through small little towns with big detached houses and sprawling gardens. The Malaysians are growing, developing, quietly and at its own pace, with a lot of space for living, and with a cost of living that is not running away. One does not need $3m or $5m dollar salary to live well. This is the quality of life that we cannot afford any more. And one can drive the car anywhere and park freely, anywhere, without having to pay a bomb. There is growth, but no frantic cries of being too slow.
Today the ST is screaming that we need more spaces for public parks. They are now so popular that they are no longer tranquil getaways from the hustle and bustle of a city. The parks are now amusement parks in a way. Families with children are everywhere having a picnic. The noises are as loud as a fish market. Even in far off Sungei Buloh Wetland Reserves, the birds and the monitor lizards were not spare from the noise of human chatters.
We need more land for parks, for sanity. We have road congestion, hospital squeeze and squeezes of all kinds. The squeeze is heading into the parks.
But no worry. We will need another 900,000 people to fill the roads and the parks. We need them for economic growth. Our TFR is falling and we need to keep the rate up. We need to fill up the parks as well to see growth. We need to find an equilibrium in the TFR and the size of our population.
I think we did quite well when we were 1.5m, when we were 2m. Now we are 3.7m and another 1.5m foreigners, and we are saying not enough. We need to grow and we need more people.
There are only two such insane countries in the world that are pushing for population increase. India wants to be the world’s most populous country, more than the 1.3m Chinese. That is a superpower ambition. What are we chasing, the world’s most densely populated piece of rock?
The 2.1% TFR is like LSD. We will need it at 5m, we will need it at 10m, we will also need it when we are 20m. No free parking for cars, no free entrance to public parks. There may be kiosks dispensing fresh air like canned drinks at $10 a can. ERP may be set up for pedestrians with a fee to pay on busy walkways. Is that the progress we are striving for?
By then Singapore will be owned and populated by new citizens. Is that what we want? Is that progress?
PS. The German and Jap politicians were not paid the out of this world salary. And they could maintain their quality of life, with economic growth despite having near zero population growth. Our supertalents can only see growth by growing the population. Without population growth, there will be no growth.
Today the ST is screaming that we need more spaces for public parks. They are now so popular that they are no longer tranquil getaways from the hustle and bustle of a city. The parks are now amusement parks in a way. Families with children are everywhere having a picnic. The noises are as loud as a fish market. Even in far off Sungei Buloh Wetland Reserves, the birds and the monitor lizards were not spare from the noise of human chatters.
We need more land for parks, for sanity. We have road congestion, hospital squeeze and squeezes of all kinds. The squeeze is heading into the parks.
But no worry. We will need another 900,000 people to fill the roads and the parks. We need them for economic growth. Our TFR is falling and we need to keep the rate up. We need to fill up the parks as well to see growth. We need to find an equilibrium in the TFR and the size of our population.
I think we did quite well when we were 1.5m, when we were 2m. Now we are 3.7m and another 1.5m foreigners, and we are saying not enough. We need to grow and we need more people.
There are only two such insane countries in the world that are pushing for population increase. India wants to be the world’s most populous country, more than the 1.3m Chinese. That is a superpower ambition. What are we chasing, the world’s most densely populated piece of rock?
The 2.1% TFR is like LSD. We will need it at 5m, we will need it at 10m, we will also need it when we are 20m. No free parking for cars, no free entrance to public parks. There may be kiosks dispensing fresh air like canned drinks at $10 a can. ERP may be set up for pedestrians with a fee to pay on busy walkways. Is that the progress we are striving for?
By then Singapore will be owned and populated by new citizens. Is that what we want? Is that progress?
PS. The German and Jap politicians were not paid the out of this world salary. And they could maintain their quality of life, with economic growth despite having near zero population growth. Our supertalents can only see growth by growing the population. Without population growth, there will be no growth.
9/11/2011
What is a translator?
This innocuous term is best described or seen as a profession to help two parties of different worlds communicate and understand each other. When world leaders met, they have translators sitting between them to translate the messages expressed in a foreign tongue to be comprehensible by both parties. We have translators between those who can hear and speak with those who can’t. We have tangkees to translate the messages of the spirits to the human beans. We even have horse whisperers who speak to the horses.
I met this grand old man, in his eighties, who told me that he was a translator in his youth. He was a Malaysian then. He worked for the British colonial govt in a division called the Special Branch. In those days, Communism was a hot issue and Communists were fighting a war of liberation from the British Occupation.
In his expressive mood, to share a bit of his mysterious past, a bit of his past glory, he told his stories to eager listeners. He was quite a bit shot among the local employees of the British though he was just a small pawn in the colonial master’s bigger game plan.
He was anything but a translator. He was a key figure in helping the British to round up the Communists in the community. He conducted raids, arrested suspects, interrogated and beating them up to extract confessions. He did not say how many died because of him. I suspect there were blood in his hands.
He was a local Chinese in a small Malaysian town. And those arrested and beaten up were mostly local Chinese. Did he feel that he had betrayed his community? The question did not disturb him. As a non politicised youth, whose intellect had not been activated with politics, with the rights and wrongs of political ideologies and colonialism, to him, he was just an employee doing his job and getting paid for it.
Yes, he was arresting the people in his hometown, some he knew well, but never had his conscience prick him. He has never seen his translator job as a betrayal of his own people. The British were very successful in creating a small group of local elite who grew, prospered through association with them. Some were flown to London to be knighted. The local elite were proud to be mingling with their colonial masters.
In his twilight years, there is still this little pride in his eyes when he spoke fondly of his days in the Special Branch. I bet he must have kept a few photos of himself in full British uniform, and with his little revolver in his belt. No one ever call him a traitor. He led a good life, very rich in his own ways.
A translator is a translator is a translator.
I met this grand old man, in his eighties, who told me that he was a translator in his youth. He was a Malaysian then. He worked for the British colonial govt in a division called the Special Branch. In those days, Communism was a hot issue and Communists were fighting a war of liberation from the British Occupation.
In his expressive mood, to share a bit of his mysterious past, a bit of his past glory, he told his stories to eager listeners. He was quite a bit shot among the local employees of the British though he was just a small pawn in the colonial master’s bigger game plan.
He was anything but a translator. He was a key figure in helping the British to round up the Communists in the community. He conducted raids, arrested suspects, interrogated and beating them up to extract confessions. He did not say how many died because of him. I suspect there were blood in his hands.
He was a local Chinese in a small Malaysian town. And those arrested and beaten up were mostly local Chinese. Did he feel that he had betrayed his community? The question did not disturb him. As a non politicised youth, whose intellect had not been activated with politics, with the rights and wrongs of political ideologies and colonialism, to him, he was just an employee doing his job and getting paid for it.
Yes, he was arresting the people in his hometown, some he knew well, but never had his conscience prick him. He has never seen his translator job as a betrayal of his own people. The British were very successful in creating a small group of local elite who grew, prospered through association with them. Some were flown to London to be knighted. The local elite were proud to be mingling with their colonial masters.
In his twilight years, there is still this little pride in his eyes when he spoke fondly of his days in the Special Branch. I bet he must have kept a few photos of himself in full British uniform, and with his little revolver in his belt. No one ever call him a traitor. He led a good life, very rich in his own ways.
A translator is a translator is a translator.
9/10/2011
How to sell Christmas Island?
Christmas Island was sold against the interest of Singapore. But then, what could the residents of the island do when they were still subjects of an Empire, and the colonial masters said so? Under those circumstances, when the people had no control over their destiny, you can’t really blame anyone for selling out the island. Under those circumstances, it is not right to accuse Lim Yew Hock for selling the island, or a traitor to the people of Singapore. The people then were not owners, mostly stateless. One only becomes a traitor to the people if the people own the land that was sold away.
Christmas Island can still be sold without selling it the way it was sold, lock, stock and barrel, to another country. Say the residents of Christmas Island, a tiny little piece of rock, decided that they could build properties and sell them to foreigners. In no time every piece of land will be sold to the rich foreigners and the foreigners became de facto owners of the island.
Another way of selling the island against the interests of its inhabitants is to bring in more foreigners to populate the island in the name of progress. When the foreigners become the majority in the island, they will literally inherit everything in the island from its original inhabitants.
Sure, in the name of economic progress, Christmas Island could be the next cosmopolitan city island in the world, the perfect playground for the rich and famous. What about its poor inhabitants? Squeezed out of the island and lost the island forever, to a bunch of new owners.
Selling out in another form. At the end of the day the island will have new owners, belong to other people forever, no longer own by the islanders.
Christmas Island can still be sold without selling it the way it was sold, lock, stock and barrel, to another country. Say the residents of Christmas Island, a tiny little piece of rock, decided that they could build properties and sell them to foreigners. In no time every piece of land will be sold to the rich foreigners and the foreigners became de facto owners of the island.
Another way of selling the island against the interests of its inhabitants is to bring in more foreigners to populate the island in the name of progress. When the foreigners become the majority in the island, they will literally inherit everything in the island from its original inhabitants.
Sure, in the name of economic progress, Christmas Island could be the next cosmopolitan city island in the world, the perfect playground for the rich and famous. What about its poor inhabitants? Squeezed out of the island and lost the island forever, to a bunch of new owners.
Selling out in another form. At the end of the day the island will have new owners, belong to other people forever, no longer own by the islanders.
9/09/2011
Big time rollers
Below is a list of the bets we have placed over the years. This list is, my guess, only a small portion of the total bets we have placed everywhere. It only shows how much money we have to play. I only wish they could let me have $50m to bet on their behalf. I don’t think I can do any worst.
Micropolis $630m
Suzhou Industrial Park $150m
Thai Danu Bank $500m
Dao Heng Bank $1.83b
Virgin Mobile US$700m
Pacific Internet Amount not available. Share price dropped from US$90 to US$2.97 in 2000
Air New Zealand $100m
Shin Corp US$3.8b
ABC Learning $400m
Barclay Bank US$4.5b
Merrill Lynch US$5b
Bank America US$4.6b
Macquarie Telecom Bought 15m shares at $3/share and sold 14m shares at 18c/share.
UBS US$10b
Stuyvesant Town US$575m
Citigroup US6.9b
Micropolis $630m
Suzhou Industrial Park $150m
Thai Danu Bank $500m
Dao Heng Bank $1.83b
Virgin Mobile US$700m
Pacific Internet Amount not available. Share price dropped from US$90 to US$2.97 in 2000
Air New Zealand $100m
Shin Corp US$3.8b
ABC Learning $400m
Barclay Bank US$4.5b
Merrill Lynch US$5b
Bank America US$4.6b
Macquarie Telecom Bought 15m shares at $3/share and sold 14m shares at 18c/share.
UBS US$10b
Stuyvesant Town US$575m
Citigroup US6.9b
Causes of low fertility rate
The govt is complaining about low fertility rate of Singaporeans. One way to overcome this is to send them to the animal farm and learn from those with 4 legs, and fertility rate guarantees to go up. The life style of animals is simply to eat, sleep and have sex, as and when please. Now, that would be a wonderful way to live if human beans can afford to do so.
Human beans are not just animals and have many preoccupations and pursuits in life. That doesn’t mean that they will be less productive. What then are the causes of low fertility rate?
1. Spending too much time trying to get an education.
2. Spending too much time trying to earn money to pay back the loans.
3. Spending too much time trying to make enough money to buy a decent place to put in a family.
4. Spending too much time worrying got money to support a family and children.
5. Spending too much time worrying where to put a maid in a 3 or 4 rm flat.
Do govt policies help or hinder the procreation instinct of the people? Many worry if they can afford to start a family when buying a home is going to leave them with nothing much to spare. A 3 or 4 rm flat is just too small for a family of 4, or worst with parents and a maid. With both spouses working, a maid becomes a necessity and needs a place to sleep. With school going children, a car becomes a necessity to bring the children around. And school transportation is not cheap.
And these are only the few basic things that are essential to starting a family. Basically, the cost is just too prohibitive. It is no longer eat and sleep, have sex and live off the land. The stress to survive and live better is burning out the virility of the young people.
The govt policies on housing, transportation, cost of living, education and paper chase, and the competition from foreigners, etc etc, all becomes hindrance to procreation and starting a family. Bet the govt does not have a clue that they are the biggest problem to procreation and low fertility rate.
Why all the screaming for higher fertility rate? Actually it has nothing to do with raising fertility rate, unless they are bringing in the studs. What is the real agenda? The low fertility problem is endemic in the system.
Human beans are not just animals and have many preoccupations and pursuits in life. That doesn’t mean that they will be less productive. What then are the causes of low fertility rate?
1. Spending too much time trying to get an education.
2. Spending too much time trying to earn money to pay back the loans.
3. Spending too much time trying to make enough money to buy a decent place to put in a family.
4. Spending too much time worrying got money to support a family and children.
5. Spending too much time worrying where to put a maid in a 3 or 4 rm flat.
Do govt policies help or hinder the procreation instinct of the people? Many worry if they can afford to start a family when buying a home is going to leave them with nothing much to spare. A 3 or 4 rm flat is just too small for a family of 4, or worst with parents and a maid. With both spouses working, a maid becomes a necessity and needs a place to sleep. With school going children, a car becomes a necessity to bring the children around. And school transportation is not cheap.
And these are only the few basic things that are essential to starting a family. Basically, the cost is just too prohibitive. It is no longer eat and sleep, have sex and live off the land. The stress to survive and live better is burning out the virility of the young people.
The govt policies on housing, transportation, cost of living, education and paper chase, and the competition from foreigners, etc etc, all becomes hindrance to procreation and starting a family. Bet the govt does not have a clue that they are the biggest problem to procreation and low fertility rate.
Why all the screaming for higher fertility rate? Actually it has nothing to do with raising fertility rate, unless they are bringing in the studs. What is the real agenda? The low fertility problem is endemic in the system.
9/08/2011
A fatal HR Consultant mistake
One of my area of expertise as a HR Consultant is compensation and salary review. And I conduct my salary review as meticulously as possible, and make recommendations from market data available. Some of my clients who were less partial and wanted objective works were quite happy to accept my recommendations. Some who were partial reluctantly accepted my work, but I knew that that would be the last job from the client.
Doing compensation analysis and compilation of data may be time consuming and taxing, but a piece of cake for someone who is comfortable with details. And understanding the data, making sense of the data, is not difficult to a clear and analytical mind. The results can be very objective and rational and makes a lot of sense.
The problem is that the clients that commissioned the survey may have certain expectations, agenda, and wanted certain results. Here is my fatal mistake. I never ask the clients what they wanted to achieve, or their expectations. I brought along my own sense of discipline, professionalism and integrity in the execution of my work. I forgot that in the real world, idealism and sentimental reasons may not put bacon on the table.
See, now I am no longer a HR Consultant. No more compensation and salary survey jobs for me.
Doing compensation analysis and compilation of data may be time consuming and taxing, but a piece of cake for someone who is comfortable with details. And understanding the data, making sense of the data, is not difficult to a clear and analytical mind. The results can be very objective and rational and makes a lot of sense.
The problem is that the clients that commissioned the survey may have certain expectations, agenda, and wanted certain results. Here is my fatal mistake. I never ask the clients what they wanted to achieve, or their expectations. I brought along my own sense of discipline, professionalism and integrity in the execution of my work. I forgot that in the real world, idealism and sentimental reasons may not put bacon on the table.
See, now I am no longer a HR Consultant. No more compensation and salary survey jobs for me.
Just dig a hole
All it needs is for someone to dig a hole that is big enough. It could be an accident, but more often than not, due to bad judgments or bad policies, and a big hole is dug. This would lead to a series of attempts and more bad policies and decisions to cover the big hole. And what it gets is more holes, or the big hole getting bigger.
Our problem with the CPF savings getting out of our reach is one good example. The hole was dug by someone, somewhere, some times back, and no matter how they tried, it is getting bigger and bigger.
Our population fracas too is another big hole started with population control to population decontrol and influx of foreigners.
Our housing problems, some still living in their dreams, will eventually sink everyone, when the bubble bursts. It started with under building or not building to squeeze the supply. But supply there was as seen from the recent policy of ramping up the building programme. Maybe they are holding back the supply to push up prices to increase revenue, or to save for the private property market. There is no way to bring down the prices anymore without causing a bigger hole.
And the uncoordinated flooding of the island with foreigners added to the frantic craze to chase properties. And it started a process, one silly policy or scheme leading to more silly policies and schemes, and all ended up in a bind. All these were unnecessary. It all started with a big hole or a bad policy to start with.
The high cost of living too, started when money was stuffed into the pockets of many people in some quarters, when ramping up property prices was seen as good, a blessing.
The congestion, high demands for goods and services, cars, properties, space, hospitals, schools, roads etc etc, all started with one big bad policy.
Today, they are starting to dig another one, oblivious to all the problems that it is already causing. The experts see that there is no other way except to grow the population for economic growth and viability. If the same kind of thinking is pervasive, the world’s population will be 10 billion in no time. If every country is growing its population relentlessly, then what?
According to these experts, population growth is the answer to everything. Yes, fully agree. It will lead to rapid economic growth, rapid consumption of goods and services, resources and all things. It will lead to rapid destruction of the earth and rapid death. Try imagine how a glutton eats himself to death, growing to enormous size with an equally big appetite to eat more and more. When the world is furiously competing for limited resources to feed its growing population, one thing will surely happen.
Our problem with the CPF savings getting out of our reach is one good example. The hole was dug by someone, somewhere, some times back, and no matter how they tried, it is getting bigger and bigger.
Our population fracas too is another big hole started with population control to population decontrol and influx of foreigners.
Our housing problems, some still living in their dreams, will eventually sink everyone, when the bubble bursts. It started with under building or not building to squeeze the supply. But supply there was as seen from the recent policy of ramping up the building programme. Maybe they are holding back the supply to push up prices to increase revenue, or to save for the private property market. There is no way to bring down the prices anymore without causing a bigger hole.
And the uncoordinated flooding of the island with foreigners added to the frantic craze to chase properties. And it started a process, one silly policy or scheme leading to more silly policies and schemes, and all ended up in a bind. All these were unnecessary. It all started with a big hole or a bad policy to start with.
The high cost of living too, started when money was stuffed into the pockets of many people in some quarters, when ramping up property prices was seen as good, a blessing.
The congestion, high demands for goods and services, cars, properties, space, hospitals, schools, roads etc etc, all started with one big bad policy.
Today, they are starting to dig another one, oblivious to all the problems that it is already causing. The experts see that there is no other way except to grow the population for economic growth and viability. If the same kind of thinking is pervasive, the world’s population will be 10 billion in no time. If every country is growing its population relentlessly, then what?
According to these experts, population growth is the answer to everything. Yes, fully agree. It will lead to rapid economic growth, rapid consumption of goods and services, resources and all things. It will lead to rapid destruction of the earth and rapid death. Try imagine how a glutton eats himself to death, growing to enormous size with an equally big appetite to eat more and more. When the world is furiously competing for limited resources to feed its growing population, one thing will surely happen.
9/07/2011
Say NO to Manchester United
Below is a letter by Narayana Narayana to the press appealing against the listing of this IPO in our stock market. I fully agree with his view and how the football racket is robbing the innocent sports fans and investors through their outrageous compensation scheme. This is no different from the thieves in Wall Streets and other financial institutions, turning innocent investors money placed in their hands into their own personal accounts.
Stock exchanges have behaved irresponsibly in many countries by recklessly accepting IPO listings to improve their own bottom lines and leaving the innocent investors clean and dry for failed and dubious companies. The way the football clubs are paying themselves crazy, like the fund managers and bankers of Wall Street tells one thing, their business is not sustainable.
Any institutions, govt agencies, that pay themselves crazy are suspects as they need to find more and more money to do that. The more they pay themselves, the more money they need to patch up the holes.
The Mailbag Editor,
The Business Times,
Singapore.
6th September 2011
Sir,
The projected US$1 billion Manchester United IPO has come in for regular discussion in your columns recently, with a fair
amount of speculation on what the terms of public subscription will likely be. SGX has categorically put to rest the suggestion
of a dual-class share structure.So far so good.
It is obviously premature at this still early stage to comment on how the IPO.will be pitched.
But what seems undeniable is that the pressing purpose of the IPO is to raise US$1 billion, and asap, 'to reduce the club's
debt burden and finance player purchases' (BT 26 Aug 2011) It was also reported that the club had 'successfully raised L504m
just last year and further piled up L478m in debt by March' (this year). That is no small beer. Intending subscribers are likely to
seriously ponder how that money was spent. An adviser on IPOs of other football clubs has offered the insightful explanation of
"(Man U's) massive debt burden, the massive payroll, and the need to replace certain ageing players'.
Against such a background, it would be interesting, and prudent for nvestors to learn what returns &/or investment merits the
IPO.will offer them.
In this context it may be relevant, and instructive, to revisit the history of IPOs in Singapore.
It was 60 years ago that the first of them, Metal Box, came on the scene. It was in fact a private placing by Fraser & Co., then
indubitably Numero Uno among stockbrokers in Singapore/Malaya. Far from a desperate need for capital, the issue, at $1.20,
promised a dividend of 10 cents or a return on capital of 8.33%. Banks then lent money at no more than 5% p.a., and the
premium effectively made up for putting money into equity stocks, then termed 'risk capital'..
Other well-established British companies trickled in, but uniformly and in common, they all promisd, and faithfully delivered,
handsome returns well over what banks offered for deposits, as well as they themselves lent out. By and large, those
early IPOs all offered good Investment opportunities from companies of repute.
In recent years, the tendency however has been to offer 'growth' as pitted against 'return', with IPOs pitched to 'what the
market would comfortably (or even uncomfortably?)' bear'. The focus of subscribers too has changed from 'return on
invested capital' to 'capital appreciation' with that last hopefully fast and large, yield be hanged..Abysmal and historically
low interest rates too have been a catalyst in promoting a 'how much can I lose after all?' mindset.
One could say that public appetite for IPOs has waned appreciably in recent months.In the particular case of Man U and
its IPO, media hype has focused on the club's large 'Asian fan support base' estimated at some 190 million. How mamy of
them are knowledgeble of stocks and the stock market to apply for IPO shares is arguably a separate issue. Sentiment
could no doubt sway some committed fans, but hard-nosed investors are likely to adopt a more sober stance.
There appears to be jubilation in some camps that Singapore has again stolen a march on its arch rival Hongkong.in this issue.
Similar euphoria erupted just a few months back when SGX landed Hutchison Port Holdings' IPO in preference to its home
base of Hongkong. However taking into consideration its subsequent lack-lustre performance, and that its current market
price is languishing one-third below its IPO price (without even factoring in another 5% depreciation through currency loss) it
can only be seen as a Pyrrhic victory.What was then touted as a 'plum catch' has in the event turned out to be a 'sour plum'
at least where the investing public are concerend. But seen from the other side of the fence, it was a veritable coup for the
promoters and all others involved in the IPO, and of course SGX as well.
Given the size of the Man U IPO, it looks as if strong institutional support will be required, as generally 'sentiment' by itself is not
a particularly strong point among retail investors. Whether the magnet behind the brand name of 'Man U' will of itself pull in
sufficient numbers will be seen when the IPO rolls out.
Yours etc.,
Narayana Narayana
Singapore 469297
Tel: 64461342
Stock exchanges have behaved irresponsibly in many countries by recklessly accepting IPO listings to improve their own bottom lines and leaving the innocent investors clean and dry for failed and dubious companies. The way the football clubs are paying themselves crazy, like the fund managers and bankers of Wall Street tells one thing, their business is not sustainable.
Any institutions, govt agencies, that pay themselves crazy are suspects as they need to find more and more money to do that. The more they pay themselves, the more money they need to patch up the holes.
The Mailbag Editor,
The Business Times,
Singapore.
6th September 2011
Sir,
The projected US$1 billion Manchester United IPO has come in for regular discussion in your columns recently, with a fair
amount of speculation on what the terms of public subscription will likely be. SGX has categorically put to rest the suggestion
of a dual-class share structure.So far so good.
It is obviously premature at this still early stage to comment on how the IPO.will be pitched.
But what seems undeniable is that the pressing purpose of the IPO is to raise US$1 billion, and asap, 'to reduce the club's
debt burden and finance player purchases' (BT 26 Aug 2011) It was also reported that the club had 'successfully raised L504m
just last year and further piled up L478m in debt by March' (this year). That is no small beer. Intending subscribers are likely to
seriously ponder how that money was spent. An adviser on IPOs of other football clubs has offered the insightful explanation of
"(Man U's) massive debt burden, the massive payroll, and the need to replace certain ageing players'.
Against such a background, it would be interesting, and prudent for nvestors to learn what returns &/or investment merits the
IPO.will offer them.
In this context it may be relevant, and instructive, to revisit the history of IPOs in Singapore.
It was 60 years ago that the first of them, Metal Box, came on the scene. It was in fact a private placing by Fraser & Co., then
indubitably Numero Uno among stockbrokers in Singapore/Malaya. Far from a desperate need for capital, the issue, at $1.20,
promised a dividend of 10 cents or a return on capital of 8.33%. Banks then lent money at no more than 5% p.a., and the
premium effectively made up for putting money into equity stocks, then termed 'risk capital'..
Other well-established British companies trickled in, but uniformly and in common, they all promisd, and faithfully delivered,
handsome returns well over what banks offered for deposits, as well as they themselves lent out. By and large, those
early IPOs all offered good Investment opportunities from companies of repute.
In recent years, the tendency however has been to offer 'growth' as pitted against 'return', with IPOs pitched to 'what the
market would comfortably (or even uncomfortably?)' bear'. The focus of subscribers too has changed from 'return on
invested capital' to 'capital appreciation' with that last hopefully fast and large, yield be hanged..Abysmal and historically
low interest rates too have been a catalyst in promoting a 'how much can I lose after all?' mindset.
One could say that public appetite for IPOs has waned appreciably in recent months.In the particular case of Man U and
its IPO, media hype has focused on the club's large 'Asian fan support base' estimated at some 190 million. How mamy of
them are knowledgeble of stocks and the stock market to apply for IPO shares is arguably a separate issue. Sentiment
could no doubt sway some committed fans, but hard-nosed investors are likely to adopt a more sober stance.
There appears to be jubilation in some camps that Singapore has again stolen a march on its arch rival Hongkong.in this issue.
Similar euphoria erupted just a few months back when SGX landed Hutchison Port Holdings' IPO in preference to its home
base of Hongkong. However taking into consideration its subsequent lack-lustre performance, and that its current market
price is languishing one-third below its IPO price (without even factoring in another 5% depreciation through currency loss) it
can only be seen as a Pyrrhic victory.What was then touted as a 'plum catch' has in the event turned out to be a 'sour plum'
at least where the investing public are concerend. But seen from the other side of the fence, it was a veritable coup for the
promoters and all others involved in the IPO, and of course SGX as well.
Given the size of the Man U IPO, it looks as if strong institutional support will be required, as generally 'sentiment' by itself is not
a particularly strong point among retail investors. Whether the magnet behind the brand name of 'Man U' will of itself pull in
sufficient numbers will be seen when the IPO rolls out.
Yours etc.,
Narayana Narayana
Singapore 469297
Tel: 64461342
Notable quote by Dr Yik Keng Yeong
‘Beware of political opportunists online.’ By Dr Yik Keng Yeong
Redbean’s quote.
‘Beware of political opportunists in the main media.’
Redbean’s quote.
‘Beware of political opportunists in the main media.’
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