What is Sinking Fund for?

Quek Soo Beng’s letter in the Today paper yesterday asked some pertinent questions about the Sinking Fund and the Town Councils Act and role with respect to the fund. For all intent and purposes, the money collected from the residents in the form of conservancy charges etc and placed in the Sinking Fund is for the purpose of maintaining the estate. It was never meant to be used for investment purposes. Should the Town Council intend to invest the money, the main concerns will be capital preservation and not risking it for higher returns. The provisions of the Town Councils Act may be give the wrong impression that it is expected of them to use the Sinking Fund for investment. This unintended function of the Town Council may lead to situations where the main function of the Sinking Fund be forgotten and with the residents contributing unnecessarily more money to it. When the Town Council sees its role as investing the money collected, then there is no limit as to what is enough in the Sinking Fund. And when there are profits from investments or when the Sinking Fund is bloating with excess, there will be no requirement to return the extra fund to the residents. And for all purposes, the residents may be expected to contribute more and more, for investments and more returns, and for the building up of a bigger reserve. It is therefore very important that the purpose of the Sinking Fund be made very clear, ie., to set aside enough money to maintain the estate. And when the amount is sufficient, then it should stop collecting or increase the conservancy charges. The collecting of conservancy charges is not for fun or for the purpose of keeping for rainy days or for investment. When there is a need for more money for estate management, the fees may be raised accordingly. For expediency and contingency purposes, Town Council may want to set aside a little more as a reserve. This amount too must be spelt out. Otherwise the reserve can be for 20 years or 100 years.

How I wish....

With so many frauds being disclosed, with so many people losing their fortunes, it is sad that the only person they could point the finger at is Madoff. What about all the thieves that have enriched themselves all these years in the financial industry? The auditors, the regulators, the CEOs, etc etc? Are they all innocent? How I wish America is a communist state today. You know what the communists did to the thieves that plundered and stole the people's money? They either decapitated them or shot them in a firing squad. But with a justice system that pays big money to the lawyers to find someone guilty or to defend the thieves and make them innocent, there will be no natural justice but the justice of money and power.

National pride versus national honour

Watching the football match between Vietnam and Thailand was like watching two nations battling for honour and national pride, and not just for money or for personal glory. These are the simple things in countries that are still 'backward' and not ruled by money. The people will do anything to defend the honour of their countries without asking how much is in it for them. There are money involved for sure. But they will not trade national honour for money in such a game. Sometimes for sophisticated and modern countries like ours, we tend to sneer at their simplicity. We may even find it amusing for them to be sweating their guts out just for some national glory but not for the millions which they could demand in view of their talents. These talented players should join the commercial leagues where all the monies are and their talents be duly rewarded. The rich countries will be most willing to pay for their talents to play, to win or lose depending the the bets on the table.

Time to cash out

HDB is building more 2 rm flats for the baby boomers who are hitting the 60s. Nice thought and nice planning. Since the late 60s till the 80s, HDB probably have built flats for a whole generation baby boomers and see them grow, settle down, raised families and now time to retire comfortably into their golden years. The baby boomers were the most successful generation of self starters, stepping out from a time when poverty was the norm. Many are living in bigger HDB flats and private properties. With children having their own families and leaving the roosts, some may want to cash out and live on the gains from their inflated assets. Typically they would have bought their HDB flats for between $20k to $40k and could now sell them for $400k or more. Neat profit. If a 2 rm flat costs $150k, there is still plenty of money to live by, provided they qualify for the purchase if they have not used up their two bites of the cherry. The good news is that there will be many of these bigger flats available for the young to pick up. The bad news is that these young couples did not have the same opportunities as the baby boomers, where the prices of flats were relatively low to their income. The cost of flats to the baby boomers was about 20 or 30 times their monthly salary, on one pay packet. A $400k flat today will be about 400 times that of a $4k monthly income or 200 times that of a $8k combined income. It looks like HDB lives on one cycle, taking care and planning for the baby boomers. The subsequent cycles or new generations will have to take care of themselves. Or maybe they are being taken care off by having better quality flats to suit their sophisticated lifestyles.

2008 is and will be a great year

In 2008 I am pleasantly surprised that I could create more than 200 myths. When I first started on this thread I was doubting myself that I could even write 20 myths. Then 100 went pass and then 200. Now I am even toying with the idea of the 1000 myths of Lion City. The best part of it all is that the most mystifying myths are being debunked as tooths or, now what am I saying, is it the most indestructible truths becoming myths? Anyway, it was mystifying. Everyday we are challenging the conventional wisdom and the great tooths of the day and seeing one by one falling by the way side. But don't be despair, more tooths will be proclaimed and more myths will come or way. It was also a year of great education. The Singaporeans were being educated everyday with each crisis getting more serious and nearer to home. But I bet with you, the Singaporeans have yet to learn a thing. They are still as complacent as before, as silly as before. They would not want to think and would live their thinking to other people. And they have great faith that all will be well if they just see nothing, hear nothing, say nothing and do nothing. God will be there to watch over us. And god will be kind and bless us to eternity with good fortunes.

Wishful thinking or wicked intent?

In March this year the official figure given was that Temasek was managing $185b of assets. If these were in equity or equity related assets and stocks, my guesstimate is that it would have lost 50% of its value at least. But the figure will be much better if kept in fixed deposits or less risky assets that are saved from the financial crisis. If the loss is in the 50% region, I said if, the loss must be made up from somewhere. I fear the money in CPF. Would the minimum sum and Medisave be further increased? Would the withdrawal age be further delayed? Would there be new measures to shift the goal posts? There are now more reasons to wish that our investments are intact, that the talented fund managers are doing well to keep them growing or at least not losing. There are more reasons not to change the govt so that the talents and the continuity will help to safeguard our assets and investments, and our future. The CPF is like a sacred cow. It is the people's hard earned money and must rightfully return to the people for their own benefit at the earliest possible time. Definitely not till they are dead or near death. This is simply bad. I have all the time this bad feeling, and I can be totally wrong on this, that there are people with designs on our CPF money. To keep the CPF for as long as possible to enable them a cheap source of fund for their own investment schemes. I hope I am wrong. I hope the real reasons to keep the money for as long as they can is really for the good of the people, in the interests of the owners. But should anyone really have wrongful designs, they must know that the designs are wicked and will do them no good. The first is the intent to 'sapu' money. No one should ever think of it as the CPF money rightly belongs to the people and depriving the people from getting it back is already sinful, if not criminal. Decent and honourable people who believe in not doing evil should never harbour such thoughts. The second intent to use the money for whatever schemes or things, may include thoughts of returning the gains to the people, if there are gains, may have some mitigating factors to lower the ill effects of the first intent. But if it is just to exploit this cheap source of fund with no regards to rewarding the owner of the money, it is unforgiveable. Seeing it in any other way is still a dirty thing to do. Do I sound like preaching or delivering a sermon? The rights and wrongs of such acts and intents are difficult to dispute or wish away. Do not have designs on the people's hard earned money for private interests. If there are, it is better to let the owners know and seek their permission and forgiveness. Do not temper with money that is not yours.

Cox pressured to ban short selling

Christopher Cox complained that he was under intense pressure from Henry Paulson and Ben Bernanke to ban short selling in September 2008. Now, why would Paulson and Bernanke deemed it necessary and urgent to ban short selling? Both must have known the dangers of short selling and the damage it could have done. They were key players in short selling before, or at least Paulson must have been, being a fund manager. Many hedge funds blamed the banning of short selling for losing their pants. For it is in short selling that they have an edge against the normal small time investors. When the funds longed a position, it is very difficult to sell at a profit as the small investors will be reluctant to buy high or higher. They too will be waiting to sell. On the contrary, for shorting a stock, it will attract more investors to buy as the stock becomes cheaper. The trick by the hedge funds is to sell and push the price even lower to force out the long positions. And the funds don't sell in the thousands, they sold in millions to drive down a stock price. Short term investors will run for their lives as they cannot hold and will cut their positions. Long term investors too will liquidate for fear of something really wrong with the company. Those who pledged their shares will have their positions forced out by the banks. So will margin traders. It is a vicious cycle and the stock will keep going down with increasing momentum. That's when the hedge funds make their money by buying back at rock bottom prices. It is a very destructive method of trading stocks to make money. It destroy stocks, companies and stock exchanges and of course the investors. Trust me, Henry Paulson and Ben Bernanke knew what they were doing. Cox is just another cock that could not see the danger of his inaction. And there are many cocks like him around.

A niche stock market?

The world is increasingly interconnected with businesses and money flow all intertwined in a complex web. The pulling of one string will affect every corner of the web. Talking about a niche market maybe a nonsensical whim and fancy proposition. It is better to be like everyone, be everything, and be part of a big web. But being in a niche market in the midst of a bigger complexity is nothing new. Every small biz is trying to differentiate itself, to find their own niche. Can our stock market differentiate itself and find its own niche instead of being a little flotsam that drifts with the tide and taking directions from everyone? In recent years our stock market has been a non player for all its worth. It is lost in an ocean that is too big for its own good. Now is the time to reflect and seek a new direction as to its role and reason for its existence. Forget about being everything or like everyone else. Carve out its own niche and find a path for its own existence. The interdependency is there. The world's economy will affect everyone and us. The money flow will still affect the tide. Here calls for the exceptional talents of supertalents to be different, just like being a safe haven for funds to be parked here. We need a stock market that can shield itself from the tsunamis, be resilient and stay afloat for its own reasons. Small can still be beautiful and useful in its own ways. We can select our own stocks, dictate our own rules, play a game that is designed for our own good, or be lost and perished in the ocean that we have no control. Under the present crisis, the funds managers must be looking for exactly such a market for safety. Unfortunately there is none around. If our stock market is seen as a safe haven, we would have provided the funds a way to safety in trouble times.

Star gazing at the Pinnacles

Come next year there will be a big announcement that all the units at the Pinnacles Duxton have been snapped up at the new market price. This will vindicate that the pricing is correct, that there is real demand for such units even at higher prices. And there will be interviews with the happy and successful proud owners for being so lucky to own them. More such flats will be built in the future to cater for the growing demands, at market prices of course.

Singaporeans could be a happier lot

Yes, with so much wealth, a disneyland like environment, Singaporeans could all be much happier, more contented if there are less criticism and cynicism of the ways things are. If only Singaporeans just count on their blessings and be happy with what they are and do what they are supposed to do, this will be the dreamland of happy people. The people who are supposed to sweep the floor or wipe the tables, be happy doing it. The workers work and do their best, the food courts serve their best dishes, the businesses do their roaring businesses and the let the politicians run the country as they are supposed to. How nice things can be. The fault lies with all the critics and cynics. They should stop all the gripes and kpkb. Let all and one perform their fated roles in life and all will be fine. There is really no big problems here. Everyone has a job, a roof over their head, clothing and enough food to eat. It is a real paradise. Just look at the beautiful parts of everything around us. The future can only be more beautiful.

Incest in Wall Street

Was Wall Street a victim of incestuous relationship? All the evidences pointed towards that direction. The regulators not doing their job to regulate, the auditors slept on their job or not doing their due diligence and got away with murder, and the con men allowed to con their way through, duping all the Americans, including foreigners, rich and poor. And they did what they did for years. In the meantime everyone was celebrating the greatness and genius of these supertalents. This is the other part, other than incestuous relationship, the state of delusion. The madness of idolizing the big earners who were cheating all the way by paying themselves crazy was seen as good, all worthy of their huge pay packets and demanding more everyday to justify their worth. The combination of incestuous relationship and delusion is a potent concoction. The former prevented the checks to be conducted expeditiously by the people tasked with the jobs, the watchdogs afraid to bark for fear of being muffed, and the law enforcers turned a blind eye thinking that supertalents cannot be wrong. And every year end would be time for their big bonus handouts, everyone laughing all the way to the banks. And despite the fraud being exposed, they are still laughing all the way to the banks. The delusion is still unshaken. The same formula of success is still intact. The supertalents will still be paid their supertalent salaries and bonuses. And in the New Paper SEC's CEO Christopher Cox regretted for banning the short selling of financial stocks which he might think would have saved the market from falling. His position, a very familiar one, was to do nothing. "What we have done in this current turmoil is stay calm, which has been our greatest contribution - not being impulsive, not changing the rules willy nilly, but going through a very professional and orderly process that takes into account unintended consequences and gives ample notice to market participants." This kind of non action is only good when the system is sound and not flawed. When it is flawed, when there is non regulation or closed one eye regulation, when there are frauds, it is the surest and shortest cut to destruction. And exactly because of his non action that Madoff could pull off his con job for so long. The kind of mess that minibond would have caused, and more serious if not abruptly exposed, to our investors. It will happen to our stock market and financial system too if we do not repair the damage to the system and pretend that everything is fine and do just nothing, like Cock. Oops I mean Cox.

The ridiculous nature of cyberspace

It is so ridiculous that cyberspace has now been use to its best to ridicule officialdom. Any dignitary, thoroughbred, infallible or otherwise supreme talent that once was sharing sermons of wisdom is now the convenient target of ridicules if he/she reveals his/her true self too often. The weapon of ridicule is perhaps the most power weapon available at this point in time to netizens. I think netizens know that there is nothing that they can do to engage in a real discussion with officialdom. They know that they will be ignored for good reasons. So, at best, they will make a silly statement looks even more silly than it really was. But would it matter? I think no. Officialdom lives in another world and there is no engagement. The hardcore netizens swear that they will not read the old media or main stream media. Likewise officialdom will not waste time in cyberspace to read the ridiculous postings. Officialdom will simply say what they want to say in the old media and that's it. It is official. When shall the Twains meet? Or will ever the Twains shall meet? Actually I got this feeling that they met but pretended not to meet. And cyberspace will remain as ridiculous as it can get while the old media will remain as official as it can get.

Investing $billions or $millions

The key questions in everyone's mind today is risk in investment. How much risk to take and capital protection. Would the investment lead to a total wipe out of the capital put in. In the minibond case, many were looking at long term bond or fixed deposit equivalent that have very little risk of losing their capital. They are looking for a little better than the pathetic interest rates for fixed deposits with minimal risk or no risk at all. Then in the case of Madoff's ponzi scheme, many of the investors went in for a consistent and respectable return for their money on the track records of Madoff's company and Madoff's reputation. A lot of assumptions were taken for granted eg SEC regulations, audit checks were expected to be in order and no fraud was expected. There were risks but none of the investors would have considered them or have sleepless night over them. They could lose some money if the investment climate changed but neither would they ever thought of losing it all. Then again investing in an institution like Madoff's and in a normal situation would be like walking into a bank to buy unit trust, a long term investment that could not go too much wrong. When a financial crisis is brewing, when a major financial institution is in financial trouble, or any big corporations in need of fund to survive, the need for due diligence is much heightened. Putting money into a crisis organisation is like putting in good money after bad money. How bad is the situation and how high is the risk must be the major considerations before committing millions or billions into it. And when millions and billions are concerned, capital protection must be vital. This is not placing bets in a casino where one is prepared to lose the whole bet. This is investment, investing huge sums of money with calculated risks and knowing how much to lose. Going into such high risk investments in a risky situation is different from investing in a Madoff fund or even a minibond equivalent. Here the risk is very high and very real, an organisation about to turn turtle. People cannot go into such critical investments using huge sums of money without protecting their investments and risk losing everything. We have pumped billions of public money into distressed banks and financial institutions recently. Were the risks carefully evaluated and the capital protected by some conditions or agreements without having to lose all or a major part of it? Or were the people deciding on these investments prepared to lose everything without protecting the capital? We are losing a lot of money, public money, and some bets could end up losing everything. High risk high return is as good as gambling in the casino. Investing is not about losing but managing loss and maximising returns. If losing everything is not a factor in the decision making, then it is a highly dangerous adventure. Maybe the risk of losing is computed from the total sum of funds under management. If one is managing $100 billion, taking a calculated risk to lose $10 billion in a single investment is risking 10% of the whole and acceptable. This may be what some fund managers would think. But think again. If the funds are public money, and the 10% is in the billions, it is not a peanut monopoly game. It is risking real money, substantial amount of money. I believe all the supertalents who are paid supertalent salaries must have weighed all these factors carefully before they made the decisions. They are paid good money and are expected to do their due diligence.

Redbean suspended from TOC!!!

I just try to visit TOC and this message greeted me. This account has been suspended. My goodness! What have I done to be suspended from TOC? I hope this is a technical error. My mind is running wild with all kinds of possibilities. TOC may want to explain to me quickly.

Trying times, trying A Team

The last one and the half years are trying times and have put the A Team to its test. Did they come out with flying colours? From the comments and discussions and criticisms in cyberspace, they don't seem to have done well. In contrast, the old media would probably run accolades across their pages if they were to write about the great achievements of the a Team. From the moment the news broke on the elitist and uncaring face, the NKF, Mas Selamat, CPF Life, Medisave, HDB market pricing, ERPs and public transport fares, electricity tariffs, GST, investment of reserves, minibonds etc etc, the solutions or the way they were handled fell far short, very short, of the expectations of what an A Team can do. Some may disagree and still have great faith in the A Team and would think that these are the best we got and the best were done. For those who expect better, they may want to look for a better A Team, one that pays $10 mil each instead of the present paltry sum of $2m to $4m. We should be looking for rocket scientists, the best legal minds from Yale, the best economic minds from Harvard or whatever to become politicians. We can pay for them. After all we have paid so much just for a few pieces of medals from the sports arena. The money will be well spent for a better A Team to run the country. Unfortunately my reservation is that God has his own plans. God does not endowed an Einstein to be a great scientist to become a politician. Making an Einstein a politician will make the human race lose a great scientist and gain a mediocre politician but paid a great scientist income. It also goes for a Bill Gate. We would not have MicroSoft but a very average politician who will be very unhappy that he did not make his multi billion income and scheming everyday to make a few millions more. A rocket scientist or the brightest mind in any profession is not a sure formula for a great national leader. You need one with a heart in the right place. There may be some freaks in history that are great in the profession as well as in leading a nation. But freaks don't appear often. One swallow does not make a summer. Is the A Team formula a right formula?

Support Raymond Lim's idea of free transport

After reading the discussion in TOC, I am also convinced that we should support Raymond Lim's idea of a 1.5% GST increase and free transport for all Singaporeans. And if we continue to charge the same price for PRs and non foreigners, maybe no need 1.5% increase, 1% maybe good enough. Let's all support this brilliant suggestion. Assuming if a household's expenditure is $4k, 1.5% will be $60 pm. A family of 4 will probably save $200 or more a month with free public transport. OK, no deterioration in service must be a pre condition. A family spending $2k pm will only add another $30 pm. And everyone can travel freely all over the island any time of the day and year. It will be good socially and for all businesses. The rich who spend big sure won't mind paying a little more. Or they can take some back by taking public transport and park their cars at home. Good for reducing traffic jams too. Give the man a Tiger, man!

Junk stocks

Goh Eng Yeow wrote in the ST yesterday about the deplorable stock market, a stock market of penny stocks or worthless stocks. A stick of cigarette costs many times more than many of the stocks which are selling for less than 30c, some even less than 5c. Worst, companies dare not list here for they know that there will be very few subscribers. Imagine a stock market when companies are finding it difficult to raise money? And some are still sitting in their ivory towers thinking that we have the best stock market in the world and trading activities are still very good. We need a thorough revamp to save this stockmarket before the karang guni men move in to pick up the leftovers. Many stock exchanges have enforced a ban on short sellings which wiped off the hedge funds and their destructive activities against stocks. We are still merrily sleeping and wining with the hedge funds and allowing them to do their damages to the stocks. In the mean time our stocks will remain as penny stocks. Any up movement is just a respite, like the fattening of the lambs for the slaughter.

Losses in CPF Investment

Half of CPF members who invested in stocks and other financial products lost money. And those who have liquidated their shares lost less while those that are still holding onto them stand to lose more as the future of stocks and shares are bleak. How could that be? Statistically, historically, based on past records, anyone who invests in stocks for 25 years will see his returns doubled or tripled. These CPF investors should take a long term view, maybe keep their money invested for another 20 or 30 years. After all they are all going to live till 85 or 100. So stay invested and the losses will turn into profits in a matter of time. Just be a believer and all things will be fine. In the meantime just keep your fingers crossed and pray.

Myth 203 - Transport fare is linked to oil prices

This myth is destroyed for good. There is a link, but indirectly, to oil price. According to Transport Minister Raymond Lim, "This is because the public transport fare is not directly linked to the oil prices. We link it to national factors, like the inflation level in Singapore, and the wage level in the whole of Singapore." So be careful when your wage level goes up. It will only cause transport fare to go up. Maybe another kind of market pricing like HDB, not related to cost of producing the goods or services.

No need foreign talent!

Then we have Mardan Mamat. Now we have Lam Chih Beng. Chih Beng won the Volvo Masters in Bangkok. These are our local talent heroes. Shall we continue to spend millions on foreign talents or use the same money to groom our own local talents?