2/20/2013

Myth 232 - Ageing population crisis



Demography expert, Professor Wolfgang Lutz declared that the negative effects of an ageing population have been blown out of proportion and argued that Singapore’s vast tertiary educated population core will counter the consequences of low replacement levels. So, have the Sinkies been fed with myth or deception, that there is a life time crisis because of this ageing population? The expert said otherwise.

I would like to add that the expert would have an even stronger case if he knows the real situation on the ground. Our highly educated seniors also have acquired a lot of wealth, a lot of savings and do not need charity except for the first batch of baby boomers where many were illiterate. Many from this batch have passed on and the younger baby boomers are more than able to take care of themselves. Then the Asian culture of looking after the elders, the family, will be there to support those that need support. And many will be economically active way past 70 with very few years to twiddle their thumbs and doing nothing. Bloody hell, some are even making millions in their 80s to provide for their grandchildren. What problem are they causing to society?

But one more serious consideration that no one seems to want to talk about. From 3m, our population has been pumped to 5.3m in something like 10 to 15 years. At replacement rate of 2.1% TFR, using simple arithmetic, the population should increase by 21% or 30% for the same period, ie to 3.6m or 3.9m. Round it up our population should be not much more than 4m today, but we have 5.3m! That is many times more than the replacement rate. We have over replaced haven’t we?

And for ramping it up to this number, shouldn’t more care be taken to minimize the ageing process with younger people? Or it is another case of just adding more senior citizens into the pool to aggravate the situation, to create a life time crisis? The flexibility to bring in more than 2m new people must have plenty of rooms to do the right thing, to avoid the ageing process and problems, not to add on to it.

Now, do I make any sense? Why bring it 2m people without solving the ageing problem and wanting to bring in another 1.6m people and hoping to solve the problem? Who is kidding?

21 comments:

Veritas said...

Long before this professor I have written in my blog that the whole "aging scare monger" is bullshit.

http://veritas-lux.blogspot.sg/2011/10/lies-of-paps-foreign-talent-marketing-3.html

Spreading fear that old man need people to look after
Recently, we have been receiving frequently bombardment of sinking into the despair aging society that only FT can bail us out. Old man are being described as some burden that requires the support from working adult.

Janadas Devan of IPS said that "you are going to see support ratio and percentage of your working population decline".

My grandfather need my support?
But I really found it quite puzzling. I live with my grandfather who is 100x richer than me. He funded my university, gave me a Porsche the day I got my driving license and a condominium. Instead of me supporting the old, I think is the other way round as my grandfather is giving me S$10,000 every month. (fiction)

Aging society is a problem especially in Europe largely due to its pension system
In Europe, due to the pay as you go pension system, aging society would contributes to financial trouble. The old Europeans need wealth transfer from the productive young to survive. In Europe, the old has little savings.

Singapore's old people is a gold mine

Are you being supported by young people or
are yousubsidizing your children

As long as the old are able to support themselves, they behave like a gold mine. Due to the CPF system, and high saving rates, "in theory" the more people ages the better in some cases.

Instead of transferring wealth from the workers to the old, the reverse happen. The old would start spending on health care, leisure...etc all out of their own pockets creating plenty of jobs for the young people.

Best scenario is the old found themselves so much monies that they actually transfer their wealth to the young as gift, just like my grandfather did to me. Even some of the poor old Singaporeans did not burden anybody. They work hard no matter how miserable the wages. Others indeed rely on their offsprings or society for support.

In the next decades, all Singaporeans are expected to retire with either CPF or housing assets. So, we should not have a serious aging issue. In practice, we have a problem. (will discuss in part 2, you guess who sabotage us)

In many countries, retirement is a big business
Countries like Thailand are destinations for retirees from Japan and western countries. The more old men coming to Thailand, the better for them. The old retirees stimulate consumption and create jobs. Many old men took young Thai wives and when they died, huge amount of wealth are transferred to their Thai wives.

Kuan Yew stated that "there would not be enough people to look after the old and work the economy at the same time". In theory, 100% of the productive adult in a country can work just to take care of the rich retirees and do nothing else. It itself is a lucrative business.

So is aging society good or bad?
Aging society economics is paradoxical. In addition the elites do not want you to understand the subjects. Part 2 will further explain.

Veritas said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Veritas said...

The fact is in Singapore, the old support the young. The young in SG stay in with parents (house to ex).

In Europe, aging is big problem because the state transfer the income from working adult to the retiree.

FUCK PAP, there are no truth in their mouth.

However, aging economics is not so easy to explain in one or two blog. I would admit I skew certain points. My intention is not to show the big picture but to point to absurdity of PAP's argument. I myself has a more balance view on this topic than my blog.

Ⓜatilah $ingapura⚠️ said...

A classical economist would simply laugh at any politico's claim that an ageing population is a "challenge" to the future security of the cuntry.

If you want to give the said economist a heart attack, tell him the plan to fix this problem is to import foreigners -- especially those who can work cheap, but have marketable skills.

Central planning is wrought with dangers -- those "externalities" or unwanted side-effects of govt policy.
Economic In One Lesson

Externalities are numerous, but I'll just illustrate one type of externality: MORAL HAZARD -- where a party can benefit "more" because his usual downside risk is borne by another party.

For e.g.: the local firm hires cheaper foreigner in lieu of Singaporeans. He is given a "free kick" by the state who makes it easy for him to do so. His "competitiveness" comes at the price of not hiring a more "expensive" local -- or to force the local wage scale down.

But as the years go on, the businessman's children grow up, finish university, and go to the job market. Suddenly the (local) kids find out that they are being passed-up for a cheaper foreign graduate, Maybe they can work for their dad -- but being the tight-arse businessman he is, he will only hire them at a heap salary. No worries. All the kids have to do is wait until their parents retire or die, and then they'll inherit the business...however the most probable case is that the kids become resentful of their dad...and then you get a "family situation".

Another moral hazard: handing out subsidies to foreigners. I won't elaborate. You can work it out.

...or try another one: No NS for foreigners.

Moral hazard. Shove that in your MP's face. Let see what the response is.

Anonymous said...

Red bean, you are right. Instead of the young supporting me, I have to help them. My plan is to give then 300,000 each to subsidies them buying a hdb flat so that they don't start life with a 30 years mortgage around their necks. In any case if I don't help them they plan to migrate so either I help them or I lose them to another country.

To me this wealth transfer to the state is like a final tax on what I have built up in my life but then knn what to do?

denk said...

sigh...
trouble is , pap isnt the one calling the shot !

Anonymous said...

Ya, India is calling the shot.

Anonymous said...

The population shit is a farce all along. Unlike European countries, we have no welfare system here. So, what the fuck when they said we gonna have fewer yong Singaporeans to support aging population? Has any elder citizen ever get anything from the State? Besides concession for train/bus rides, we pay using our own money. So, did we burden the country? What do you think?

ufo said...

Aging population is just another propaganda. Greed and stupidity of the multi million paid pm is the bloody truth.

The best lies are the half truths.

Anonymous said...

FT not only do not support old Singaporeans, they are pushing up property prices. After making their kill, they will leave with all the profits, leaving Singaporeans, young and old, to hold the overvalued homes.

All those talk about how much FT help to create jobs for Singaporeans is a load of propaganda shit. FT only help to prop up property prices, help the ministers get fat bonus tied to GDP growth and create all the problems related to overcrowded MRTs, buses and congested roads.

Veritas said...

FT not only do not support old Singaporeans, they are pushing up property prices. After making their kill, they will leave with all the profits, leaving Singaporeans, young and old, to hold the overvalued homes.

Our CPF is bankrupt. However the previous generation all traded their kampong landed property with a HDB. These property is a idle asset that will generate zero income in normal circumstances. But FT policy, the rent collect acts like some sort of transfer.

But such transfer is extremely toxic compared to direct "support old man" tax.

Today without FT, PAP would have to raise tax to support the poor. And where the hell is our CPF coming into the picture? The answer is CPF value is been eaten so much by PAP crazy money printing that you count yourselves lucky if it buys you one roll of toilet paper.

And why transfer via rental income is toxic? That is another big topic. I think LKY and LHL hate Singaporeans.

Anonymous said...

Veritas needs to do a correction.

The previous generation and the current baby boomers did not trade their kampongs for HDB Flats.
Regulars here such as Agongkia and patriot are weeping their hearts out in Blogoland for been resettled from their villages.

Anyone can see that all villages are cleared of settlers. There was hardly any place in Sg that was not occupied. Ulu ulu places including all the tiny islands around the mainland were populated. The shorelines were also occupied by many that depended on fishing and other marine related work.

Before the 70s, Sg was self sufficient in food and water. Sinkies however have all forgotten or too young to know.

Veritas said...

Veritas needs to do a correction.

The previous generation and the current baby boomers did not trade their kampongs for HDB Flats.
Regulars here such as Agongkia and patriot are weeping their hearts out in Blogoland for been resettled from their villages.

Anyone can see that all villages are cleared of settlers. There was hardly any place in Sg that was not occupied. Ulu ulu places including all the tiny islands around the mainland were populated. The shorelines were also occupied by many that depended on fishing and other marine related work.

Before the 70s, Sg was self sufficient in food and water. Sinkies however have all forgotten or too young to know.


Got to refine my language a little. haha...

My family is a victim as well. My grandfather bought an old 5 foot way today would worth 3-4 millions. The house is not ulu ula but in prime area. My grandfather died overworking to pay for our house, even before the debt was fully cleared. My grandma become widow. My mother got to drop out to support the family.

On one stroke, PAP acquire the house for "public purpose". Next door is a newly build house, they never acquire.

The house is being paid by sacrifices of 2 generations of my family. My mother could have went to uni. My grandfather could have take a good rest or could have monies to find a doctor.

Now its gone. I do not know other than Satan who can do that.

Today, more than 20 years later, the plot of land my house stood formerly was still undeveloped. It is not being use for any public good.

I bet PAP is going sell to FT speculator. Who else can think of such wicked ideas other than Satan Kuan Yew and his lackies.


Huat ah

denk said...

anon
*Ya, India is calling the shot*

think bigger

Anonymous said...

Yep, most villagers lost their occupations. Their usual multi generations families splitted and some of the youngs moved to other estates away from their parents and siblings.

Most importantly, for a monthly rental that hardly cost more than $20 a month, it was usually $5 to $15(five to fifteen dollars) with free use of the land(compound/garden) to plant and or rear fowl and pig. Most depended on farming the land, husbandry and the sea.

Once moved into HDB Flats, they had to pay 10(ten) to over 20(twenty) times monthly payment for their abodes. Which silly villager would want to lose occupation and pay so much more and lose the freedom to do whatever with the house?
No more fresh fish, poultries and vegetable. Imagine having to buy everything after having lost ones' occupation and paying higher rental and utilities.

No wonder villagers tended to curse the authority.

ufo said...

This is my speculation. LKY is dying. LHL is panicking. LHL is trying to con a lot of monies out from the daft people so he can run away. Sg will become part of My. When that happens, HDB and condos will become overpriced. The bubble will burst. The people will have a mortgage that is much more than the property price.

Anonymous said...

Voices, TODAYonline Feb 21

[Relatively high mobility among younger cohorts in MOF study -
from Lim Bee Khim]

"Mr Soon Sze Meng’s commentary, 'Sustaining social mobility' (Feb 20), stated that our income mobility study, 'which measured 38,500 father-son pairs for sons born between 1968 and 1978, shows evidence of lessening mobility among the poor'.

There was some evidence of slightly lower mobility for sons of poor fathers. However, even for them, mobility was not low by international standards."

http://www.todayonline.com/voices/relatively-high-mobility-among-younger-cohorts-mof-study

Anonymous said...

STFORUM - Print

[Start reverse mortgage scheme to help seniors]

"The main concern of retirees is whether they will have sufficient savings for their old age.

Despite having CPF Fund Medisave and Retirement accounts, many retirees will not have enough.

Kuo How Nam"

http://www.straitstimes.com/premium/forum-letters/story/start-reverse-mortgage-scheme-help-seniors-20130221

Anonymous said...

STFORUM - Online

['Silver tsunami' conjures up wrong image]

"AS AN active 66-year-old, I am distressed by the use of the metaphor 'silver tsunami' to describe the projected impact of the ageing population on economic growth ("'Suicide for PAP vs euthanasia for S'pore'"; Feb 8).

William Wan (Dr)
General Secretary
Singapore Kindness Movement"

http://www.straitstimes.com/premium/forum-letters/story/silver-tsunami-conjures-wrong-image-20130221

Anonymous said...

I forgot to add that after giving away 900,000 to the government, I will have to live a very frugal life till death

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