LKY chided Japan and
China for their presumingly flawed population policies. China’s
problem is its one child policy to hold back a population explosion.It must be
crazy to keep growing the population with 1.3b now. In the case of Japan, it is
its homogenous society that did not take too kindly with immigrants of other
origins. So, would these two countries be better off by abandoning their
population control policies? The hyped fear is that the countries will age too
rapidly and eventually ran out of stock of people. And leave it to the
mathematicians, it is then possible theoretically, assuming that the human race
is unthinking and as predictable as robots and both countries will be nothing,
no people left.
Putting this argument aside, are these two
countries progressing or regressing? One has just emerged as the second biggest
economy in the world and threatening to over the USA as
the biggest in 30 years or less. Japan is
still the third largest economy in the world, having been overtaken by China
which is impossible to stop given its physical size and population. But Japan is
still unbeatable as the number three, ahead of all the developed European
economies, ahead of Britain, France and Germany.
Though the Japanese were experiencing very
little economic growth over the last 30 years, is the quality of life getting
worst? Definitely not. They are still enjoying possibly the highest quality of
life without growth, and also with little inflation while housing prices
remained practically stagnant to mitigate against slower or no growth. The
Japanese are still very wealthy as a country with plenty of reserves and
industries and high productivity. Japan
does not need the ponzi population growth to maintain a high quality of life
without the apparent growth that is deemed desirable.
In both these countries, would they be
better off or worst off if their populations were to shrink another 10% or 20%?
Economists can argue either way but more population does not only bring growth
alone but could bring along many more social and political problems that would
negate the little benefits from economic growth. Would it be better to maintain
a high quality of life with little economic growth and little population
growth?
19 comments:
Japan problem is landlordism. Landlordism is a very ugly characteristic of sinitic society. During the early 90s when Japan bubble burst, its elite could choose to sit by and see asset price drop until zero.
This is a good thing. First, it will bankrupt the banks, (i hate usury). Second, there will be plenty of cheap land. The young people, will have no debt load when to start and family and to buy a house. If land price is low, birth rate will increase.
Unfortunately, Japanese elites choose to prop up asset price. This is one of the most unjust policy, beggaring the people and enriching the rich.
The young man continue to be choked big time if they want to have baby and start family.
Today Nordic country is lower technology than Japan. Because of socialism Nordic country as the highest birthrate.
Also Japan's citi planning is extremely bias to the rich, not unlike Singapore. To prevent asset bubble, Germanic country choose a polycentric model.
Today population of Berlin is 3.5 million, population of Tokyo is 13 million. Such planning faciliate land speculation.
When I was in working in ,Berlin 12 years ago, a condo cost around SGD160,000.
Given the similar aggregate wealth level of Germany and Japan society, Japan's youth was emasculated, while Germany was empowered.
RB I agreed with u totally but then you are not the PM so what to do only suck thumb lor
I believe if Japan model succeed, it threatens the legacy of LKY. Kuan Yew-ism, could become a joke for future generation.
Kuan Yew hates Japan model. He hope Japan elites could be traitor like himself. I hope Japanese perservere.
When birthrate drop further and bring forward further bankruptcy of landlord and banks, Japan will have cheap land.
And birthrate will readjust back to replacement level.
The old man thinks one way like his age, only up and expiring.
Whatever nature put in place are resources. Conversely, whatever man(kind) makes and consumes are depleting resources.
Population development is a cycle. When there are more living beings, more resources are used up and needed. When resources become scare, population growth can be moderated to prevent depletion of natural resources.
China is the first country to implement population control and conserve much of its' resources. Had it allowed the population to grow as the Chinese Traditional Practice of the more the merrier, the Chinese Population(in China) could be much lesser than today.
There would be war, famine and other high population and politic related problems to plague it. However, as a great civilization, the Chinese know how to live meaningfully.
Back to the old man; as his age advances, he loses control of his ego and materialistic inclination. He loses his senses of balance and sensibility. He talks like he is can save many natiobs from collapse. Unfortunately, he wont be able to prevent the land handed over to him from rotting.
Lamentable!
patriot
Lee Kuan Yew has an opinion on just about everything. And he's never been afraid nor ashamed to share it with the rest of the world -- the man is an attention whore when it comes to "telling people what the fuck to do, and why they need to do it"
NO audience NO point. That's him.
The problem with Lee Kuan Yew is that he views people as digits, not as Japanese, germans, French, Yugoslavians, Arabs. When there is a aging population just increase the digits, never mind their cultural backdrop.
It is really a warped and I dare say childish thinking that japan would be all the better off opening its doors to millions of non-Japanese.
People have pride in their language and culture. They will rather disintegrate than to be reduced to third class citizens in their own land. In any case Japan is rich in many areas and have no need to resort to such childish schemes to inflate the population.
LKY is indeed someone with zero knowledge of the finer things in life. He only sees humans as digits and he has absolutely no idea of what is the meaning of a fine life and what is worth living for. Perhaps he is blinded and buried in his own riches.
zero
2.40 pm knn what talking u?
One thing the old man has forgotten is that for red dot's puny size, continuous growing of the population is unsustainable.
He is thinking as if we are like Canada, Australia or China, where even with the luxury of size, they are wary of too many immigrants.
The old man is just one crazy old guy still trying to impose his crazy ideas on a uninterested population that has grown wary of his old worn out tactics.
He is superficial, so are some of his proteges. They believe they are what they wear and what they say and claim. Most are empty superficiality that makes them clownish, for laugh only.
Where are the substance?
China should follow Singapore's fine example of doubling its population by importing foreigners.
Therefore China should import 1.35 billion people from around the world to take its population to 2.7 billion.
Wait, that is about half the world's total population. But have no fear - China has more than enough land to accommodate these foreign talents.
The old fart should stop criticizing other countries. Quality of life in Japan (where there is almost zero immigration) is way better than in Singapore. They are just smarter than you in the way they manage the country. Have they become nothingness after all these years adopting a closed door policy ? As for China, after years of 1-china policy, they still managed to grow their economy to become no 2 economy in the world. Did they need mass import of immigrants ?
Mr LKY should take a trip to Toyama, Takayama, Niigata, Kagoshima, etc. and see and experience for himself the very high quality of life Japanese are enjoying especially in the many 2nd tier cities of Japan. The very affordable costs, efficient transport, cleanliness, harmony, modern facilities, scenery, great food, fresh local produces, fine craftmanship, honorable services, etc.
Japan is so good yet so modest.
Enjoy so much especially in rural Japan & in their 2nd tier cities.
Alright, how many of you who are praising Japan's stuborn refusal to actually realise they need to revitalise their country through new young blood and a fresh cultural perspective?
How many of you have actually lived in one of the smaller Japanese cities. Not as a tourist guided, but actually lived and worked there.
IF you have, you'd be surprised at how damn primitive their basic services are. It's like the whole country outside of Tokyo and Osaka is trapped in a time warp in the early 90s, with tourist areas being a bubble of the 21st century.
24hr ATMs? Only in Roppongi and parts of Tokyo, Osaka and several parts in Kanto. The minute you're out of Honshu, forget about it.
Supermarkets that open beyond 9pm. Ha! Only convienice stores open beyond 12 midnight and you can forget about fresh produce from them.
Technology and mobile plans that are useable outside of Japan? No such thing.
Credit cards? Even for airline tickets and hospital bills? Not a chance.
Most of their companies and public services still uses a fax machines. Mostly because the dinosaurs running those places are preventing the young from getting a job worth a damn there in the first place.
The average age of the Japanese farmer is 55 and prefectures have mergerd primary and middle schools because there simply isn't enough children and youth in many parts of the nation. Go to any Japanese country town, and you notice the old outnumbering the young 3 to 1.
As for China, they can't be too bothered with the aging issue, though that is a seriouse one for them.
They already have 200 million male citizens of adult age with zero hope of a wife and chances of a job with pay above sustance level. China might want to pray they're lucky enough for all of them to be homosexual.
Japan and China can do with a 20% reduction in population. They are over populated.
The quality of life is not modern gadgetry. Many of the super rich or city folks would run away to no man's land, littl island of idle their time away, without gadgetries.
Want to go to Nepal, Maldives, Li Jiang?
@JayF:
Commenting on your ideas:
IMO Asian societies in general cling too hard to their "traditions", which in many ways is good -- the values of thrift, hardwork and looking out for family and community. One of the insidious "bad Asian values" (not monolithic, but there are generalities) are the over importance of OBEDIENCE to elders -- as if to say the "elders" have unchallengeable wisdom, and to do so is immediately condemned as an act of insolence.
To me (and I'm an "oldie") the mere idea of fawning blind respect nd faith to a white bearded authority figure like the "sifu" or "sensei" who holds court and imparts "wisdom" to guide imperfect young minds is fucking laughable and downright STUPID in this day and age. That "obedience to elders" shit has long past its usefulness.
Most of these old fucks need to GET OUT OF THE WAY or fuck off and die. Young people these days are smart, well-read, tech savvy, travel frequently, are open to ideas -- good and bad, and have the facilities of be independent, self-reliant and even vastly productive (look at the increasing number of young squillionaires under 30), present-focused and forward-looking.
The old fucks get in the way of progress -- that is intellectual and cultural progress, and prevent young people from creating their own unique identities. The old fucks are also incredibly "anti-woman" preferring to hold onto their ridiculous notion about men being better than women, and women should "surrender" to the men, especially the alpha male of the tribe.
Strong women scare the shit out of these old men, which illustrates how really insecure they are.
The future belongs to the young. Let them make their own mistakes and allow them the freedom to use their creativity to solve their problems. They might seek counsel from an oldie; they might go to their social networks for aid and support...whatever; just GET THE FUCK OUT OF THE WAY let them be free to decide for themselves.
IMO Asian societies in general cling too hard to their "traditions", which in many ways is good -- the values of thrift, hardwork and looking out for family and community. One of the insidious "bad Asian values" (not monolithic, but there are generalities) are the over importance of OBEDIENCE to elders -- as if to say the "elders" have unchallengeable wisdom, and to do so is immediately condemned as an act of insolence.
You are wise, in a very unique way. I agree with your above statement.
Old men talking like young kids here.
吃老还墥。
Just get out of the way; that' s the reason why the elderlies are being abandon. The youngs are going away, leaving the homes they are born, to enjoy privacy and freedom.
Matilah got plenty of freedom leaving and giving all others in his family to live and enjoy living like himself. Have great fun but just dont consider Your idea of living worthy of emulation. It is devoid of humanities or rather it is just not for humans.
僮 to replace the 墥 in the above comment.
Anon 7.53 hits the nail on the head when he said that the quality of life is not modern gadgetry.
Neither is having 24 hr facilities that does nothing but shorten lives with all the booze, smoking, perverted sex, junk food and drugs to go with it.
The quality of life is not measured by what you acquired. Those are things that belongs to you only temporarily. A big bungalow is still nothing more than a hotel, a possession that you aimed and slogged for, live in and go away for good when it's time to meet your maker. We came into this world naked, we will leave empty handed.
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