3/30/2020

Covid19 - Why lockdowns failed

China was the first country that imposed a lockdown on big cities like Wuhan with a population of about 15m and the whole province of Hubei with another 50m population. And the effort bore great results with the Covid19 virus contained and as good as obliterated in 3 months. No more local transmission, Hubei unlocked and Wuhan about to be unlocked with life starting to return to normalcy.

Many countries have also followed China's example of locking down cities and region but are failing. Some countries like Singapore, South Korea and Japan did not really lock down their country or cities but seem to be doing fairy well.  Why are the western countries failing, especially Italy and Spain, and why locking down American cities would also failed?

There are three fundamentals that would ensure some kind of success in a lockdown. A lockdown is a stringent measure that aims to contain the virus in a particular spot, city or region. When announced, no one leaves or enters the area. And it is pointless to announce a lockdown in advance to allow people to leave quickly. Those who left would bring along the virus in them to spread wherever they go. This was exactly what happened to Italy. You don't announce a lockdown in advance to allow infected people to leave before it comes into effect. After a lockdown, in China's case, all the few  cases outside Wuhan and Hubei were quickly tackled and isolated to prevent further spread.

Now Trump is going to do a lockdown on New York. Would it work? No, it is too late, the virus is all over the USA. This brings me to the second fundamental, to nip the problem in the bud. When the problem is small and contained, it could be killed on the spot. This means cornering the virus by contact tracing, quarantine them and testing all those that have come into contact with the infected person. In this way, the spread could be arrested and any one that missed contacted, when infected and reported, the whole process would swing into action again to bring all those in contact with the infected person into quarantine. This is where Singapore did well, swift enforcement when the problem is small and not allowed to grow and spread. This was also the case in other parts of China after Wuhan was locked down.

The third fundamental is testing. In a lockdown, the virus is contained in an area. Infected person isolated, suspects quarantined and tested. And because infected and suspected are identified and confined, there is no need to test the rest of the population. They would  only be tested when infected or suspected to be infected. In places where there is no lockdowns, the problem is not contained, and worse, if there is no testing, those already infected would be spreading the virus everywhere they go. This is the problem in countries that introduced half hearted measures in lockdowns and testing only those infected. The virus was having a great time, unrestrained and spreading freely. Oh, the test must be free or minimal cost to get people to come for the test.

Today, many countries have the virus all over. Any forms of lockdowns must be nation wide, like the whole of Italy or the whole of the USA, the whole of UK, to be meaningful and effective. And after the lockdowns, isolation of infected, quarantined of those they have contacted and testing everyone of them must follow to restrain the virus from spreading further. No testing, no contact tracing, no quarantine, no lockdown, no success. To contain and stop the virus from spreading means serious effort to contain, no half hearted measures as the virus would spread freely given the chance.

PS.  Lockdown is completely useless when the virus has bolted. Trump would not be able to comprehend this simple logic.

27 comments:

Pan Dora said...

To lock or not to lock? That is the question which must be answered early and decided upon early, with full force. No politically correct measures that make people confused. Confusion during such a ordeal is the worst enemy towards solving the problem.

Virgo 49 said...

Fourth Fundamentals:

The Residents, Citizens and everyone must cooperate and comply with the stringent lock down or worse scenario a curfew.

PRCs generally like Sinkies are well trained and grilled to be laws biding and behaved.

Those "Sinkies" that are defiant, a few are usually not local born ones.
From other lands that see riots, fights happening everyday in their lives. It's normal to them..Thus, they will be the tricky ones to control
Save for a few that are unusually different that are born fighting cocks and criminals in them genes.

The West with their run away upbringing and farking what's human rights are different.

They defied just for the sake of defiance as they brought up these ways in their beliefs that they would be smart in these environments and out of their idiotic boxes thinking.

Thus, nowadays so many young dies as influenced by them are behaving thus.

Calling oldies old fucks and all sorted of names. They will never grow into OLD FUCKS?

These young dies have not tasted our ever curfew days which are even worse than lock downs during our Racial Riots in the 60s and early 70s.

Shoot on sight for breaking curfew hours..Thus, you can see the Americunts and the other Whites NOT giving a damn going out with their rightful freedom activities that defied the lock downs.

The only solution to tame them is a Curfew..The National Guards shooting them on sight and they will obey without any more defiance.

Some, really kwa lan ones as their run wild and run riots wrong upbringing will have shooting games with the Guards. That's for sure.

Simply gunned them down. Kill the chickens to scare the monkeys.

Or else the Pandemic will be on going for years to come.

Anonymous said...

Trump has contributed to a lot of confusion s and controversies during the last three mouths through his tida-apa attitude and one-up-manship tweets and loose talks, to score points with his supporters, trying to capitalize this unfortunate event to gain votes for his re-election next year.

Singapore PM also created confusion by talking about the 2m social distancing and then immediately after that he went down to his constituency for a walk-about with a huge crowd of people surrounding and following him. He also talked about the possibility of holding the GE during this time, thereby indirectly encouraging people to hold large events during this Pandemic time. Contradicting his own instructions?

Anonymous said...

lt is too early to conclude and praise Sin for the Effort and Effectiveness on controlling and containment of COVID-19.
It is early day yet as the Return of COVID-19 IS MUCH FURIOUS THAN IT FIRST BROKE OUT.
One aspect which is rightly pointed out is that there are MORE CLUSTERS OF LOCAL TRANSMISSION ALL OVER THE TINY ISLAND. SECONDLY, THE IMPORTED CASES HAVE NOT REDUCE BUT REMAIN HIGH DUE TO MORE RETURNING SINKIES.
SCHOOL AND CHILDCARE CENTRE ARE NOT CLOSE.
MORE WORRYING IS THE JAM-PACKED PUBLIC TRANSPORT.
MOST
HORRIBLE IS THE
LACK
OF MASK
AND THE ABSTAINTION TO USE IT BECAUSE OF EXTORTION PRICE AND SCAM.
Woes betide Sinkies if COVID-19 RUNS WILD IN SIN.

Anonymous said...

COVID-19 - Three Emerging Trends In SINGAPORE

1. More and more clusters emerging, latest in the industrial area of Yishun, is alarming.

2.The number of new imported cases increasing by the day is frightening.

3. The number of increasing local infections, not linkable to any cluster of person, is definitely terrifying. One 70 years old papa just died. He did not know who was the irresponsible person who transmitted his coronavirus to him, as he did travel out of Singapore and did connect to any group. So, it is probable that he got the virus in a bus, taxi or train. If this is correct, then it is not only alarming and worrying but also terrifying.

To add salt to open wound, if some horrible people were to engineer the conduct of the GE during this COVID-19 Pandemic time, then the situation will become HORRIFYING!

From ALARMING to FRIGHTENING to TERRIFYING to HORRIFYING - These four emotions coming together, at the same time, will be extremely unbearable! They will definitely blow YOUR MIND OUT!


YOU SIMPLY WON'T BE ABLE TO KNOW WHO IS GOING TO DONATE HIS/HER INFECTED DROPLETS TO YOU.

YOU SIMPLY WON'T BE ABLE KNOW WHERE YOU WILL GET THE VIRUS.

YOU SIMPLY WON'T BE ABLE TO KNOW WHEN YOU WILL GET THE VIRUS.

AND YOU SIMPLY WON'T BE ABLE TO KNOW WHETHER YOU WILL DIE FROM IT OR NOT.

IF YOU ARE DEAD AND BURNT TO ASHES, YOUR FAMILY MEMBERS WILL SUFFER. IF YOU ARE NOT DEAD BUT WALK AROUND EVERYWHERE, NOT KNOWING THAT YOU ARE CARRYING THE VIRUSES IN YOUR BODY, AND HELP THE VIRUS TO SPREAD TO AS MANY PEOPLE AS POSSIBLE, THEN YOU HAVE BECOME A LIABILITY TO THE WHOLE SOCIETY. WOULD YOU BE ONE SUCH PERSON?

OR, ARE YOU ALREADY ONE SUCH PERSON?

Chua Chin Leng aka redbean said...

WASHINGTON (AP) — For weeks, President Donald Trump carved out a trail of groundless assurances about the coronavirus pandemic as health officials, governors and local officials sounded alarm about what was coming — and already here. That sunlit trail now has hit a wall.

Just imagine if Xi did or said what Trump was saying, he would have been skinned alive by the western media. But this conman is getting more popular by the day for his false passes and lies to the Americans. The western media are praising him for his 'good' work.

No wonder the daft Americans believe that he is making America great again, Number One in Covid19 infection.

Anonymous said...

One thing is for sure Covid-19 is getting Americuns FAST and FURIOUS, if Trump still maintain business as usual or deli dally here there, worse will come. China CCP will tell Dotard sori lah distance water can't put out near water (远水救不了近火), go save yourself lah & be nice to your own neighbors ho boh.

Anonymous said...

Correction: "...distance water can't put out near Fire .."

Ⓜatilah $ingapura⚠️ said...

Lock downs are against human nature to be free. Everywhere that there have been lock downs, there are people who simply won't comply. You can threaten to fine or jail them, but enough people will still disobey the govt. Even in China. If people can get out and about, they will, no matter how "Draconian" the govt is.

I'm going out now for my coffee and sandwich. Fuck the virus lah.

Support local business!

Anonymous said...

He knows the art of expectation. Eg he said of 100000 American died mean he is doi g a good job. Since death is 2000 plus he has a way to go. But he akready set up 200000 so if exceeded 100n he still gave 100k allowances as li g as it does not exceed 200k by election time. After reflected it fd an go to million also does not matter to him

Anonymous said...

Matilar u don't expected the girls that rub your Canon to keep hands clean lar. So u be careful and don't die on Us so soon.

Ⓜatilah $ingapura⚠️ said...
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Ⓜatilah $ingapura⚠️ said...

I just knew the motherfucking govt was going to do this. Lucky I bought ammo last week.

I have 146 rounds. Fuck the government! 🖕

https://www.perthnow.com.au/news/coronavirus/coronavirus-crisis-shooting-industry-foundation-australia-to-defend-ad-criticising-wa-governments-decision-to-close-gun-shop-on-the-west-live-ng-b881503584z

Ⓜatilah $ingapura⚠️ said...

@ 149

Can you believe this shit? Last night I get a WhatsApp message that some crazy death-wish motherfuckers are planning to hold an "Underground Party".

Wah piang, I let fly lah. What kind of stupid cheebye idea is this? I'm going to report them lah, if they do this.

In the air, there are no more planes. Only police helicopters with thermal imaging and super hi Rez cameras patrolling the skies looking for evidence of "crowd activity"...like "illegal gatherings".

In China they use drones. Every govt uses whatever they have to "discipline" the citizens.

Like I said: social distancing, limiting number of people in gathering, and hand washing: OK
Total lock down: go get fucked lah.

Anonymous said...

The most weakest link in our fight to destroy the virus is within the packed buses n trains.

Anonymous said...

A chain is only as strong as its weakest link.

Ⓜatilah $ingapura⚠️ said...

@ quotes are not an argument

Solution: have more than one chain.

If you already know that a chain is only as strong as the weakest link, then this is not "new information". If you fail to protect against a known known, then that organisation is idiotic.

Anonymous said...

The USA is in deep shit. Trump's twisting and turning is making the situation worse. He said things without realising whether it is possible to be done or not. Just farting from his cheebye mouth whatever comes into his mind, and then reversing course after realising his mistake, is not going to help in containing the virus.

Within a space of two to three days he made two major announcements, to lockdown New York and to open the US for business by April 12. Both have now been reversed. Asking New Yorkers to self isolate instead of facing a lockdown is asking for real trouble. He is like a headless cockroach, not knowing which way to run.

He is now practically accusing hospital staff of stealing medical supplies, which is now in critical short supply. This is going to affect the moral of the healthcare workers and more patients are going to suffer. He is still in denial mode when it comes to the severity of the crisis, asking why there is a need for so many ventilators compared to pre-virus days.

But of course he is not unduly worried. He, his family, and the elites gets the lion's share of the US$2.20 trillion, while the people gets the coronavirus and their sufferings are just collateral damage.

The USA really needs heavenly help going forward.

Anonymous said...

Long long time ago, China Chinese already knew that businessmen r not good in administering a city, province,state or country (if not wrong it was during the Shang Dynasty after tat Zhou Dynasty took over the mess & have some ~800yrs of prosperity in mainland China). The present lot of China Government r pick from the best in administering the country not based on their business skills/experiences will know how to govern or run a state well (aside from some 'corrupted' governors whom accepted under table monies). The present Dotard may be good in running the country as if it is a enterprise or corporation, but to run a country will be entirely different not juz economy in addition also defense, security, transportation, communications, education, Arts, humanities/social, healthcare and many others..in order for him to understand a wide spectrum of these it will take years to crave out such leaders & if a leader that is bias or good on certain strength he/she will not be so well rounded to understand or have a grasp of the whole situation, & another factor is the leader must be able to win the hearts of many of its followers else it's a lost cause & when crises arise that leader will juz crumple or don't know wat to do next (worse still being wrongly advised by his own yes men).

Ⓜatilah $ingapura⚠️ said...
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Ⓜatilah $ingapura⚠️ said...
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Anonymous said...

Those that claim mask NOT helping to prevent infection of contagious disease are lacking in commonsense.
And folks lacking commonsense are not only ignorant and naive,
they are innocent like toddler who does not understand any danger yet.
But,
toddlers do not act like expurt bcos they are too innocent to act or be boastful.
Only charlatan is conceited and brags.

Anonymous said...
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Anonymous said...
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Anonymous said...


COVID-19: Please Use Your Common Sense, If You Still Have!

Common sense tells us that the COVID-19 Virus, or any virus, can enter into our body only through whatever holes our body open up to welcome and invite it to enter.

Therefore, in order to prevent even just a single virus (that will multiply itself once it goes inside our body) from entering into our body, the right thing to do is to block off all the orifices (anus, peehole, vagina, eyes, ears, nose, mouth and any open wound).

Our bottom holes (anus, peehole and vagina) are already covered and protected by our undergarments and pants/skirts. So only our ears, eyes, nose and mouth are exposed as freeways for the virus to enter.

If we wear a mask, we cover up our nose and mouth, preventing easy access from the virus. That's not all. We are also preventing our own itchy hands and fingers (that usually have germs and viruses on them) from touching our mouth and nose (transferring whatever germs and viruses from our hands to our mouth and nose. According to medical researchers, we touch parts of our face more than 300 times a day without realising it!

That left our ears and eyes without any protection? Wrong. Our ears have wax (oil) to stop the virus from entering deep inside. Virus cannot survive on oil. That left only our eyes not protected.

If we also wear a pair of eye-glasses or goggles (better still) then our eyes are protected also.

If any of you had watched video clips on how people in Wuhan moved about during the lockdown, you would have seen that they covered up their mouth, nose, eyes, ears and hair; and wore long sleeves shirts, long pants, boots, stockings and gloves. Whole body covered up! Not a single chance for any virus to enter their bodies. This is how they have protected themselves. This is how we can also protect ourselves from the COVID-19 virus and be SAFE than Regret Later!

In Singapore, the strategy was (and still is to a certain extent) to let everyone get infected, so as to achieve the herd-immunity. That explains why the government gives this advice:

"DON'T WEAR A MASK IF YOU ARE WELL. WEAR A MASK ONLY IF YOU FEEL UNWELL!"

One Minister (DPM Heng?) has recently openly stated that Singapore is still toying between Full Exposure (Herd Immunity) and Prevention, Saving the Weak and Vulnerable! (But afraid that the whole heath-care system might not be able to cope?)


Allah, Buddha, God bless all of us!
Please bring forth wisdom where it is lacking!

Ⓜatilah $ingapura⚠️ said...
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Ⓜatilah $ingapura⚠️ said...
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