This thought must be in the minds of the Thais for a long time but not spoken. Finally it is in their lips and openly spoken as an option to the political crisis. The Yingluck govt may be appearing soft and may be taken for granted by the Democrats and the Bangkok elite. But beneath this apparent weakness and inaction is a very powerful message. It exposes the real thugs and trouble makers and how these people are out to destroy Thailand at all costs. Thailand can be led into turmoil with blood and bodies on the street to achieve their political goals with the support of the minority in Bangkok. The protestors are ignoring all reasons and sensibilities and the welfare of the Thai people. They just want to grab power.
The
Yellow shirts are proving themselves to be unreasonable political thugs. The
Red Shirts, being the real majority, are now the sensible party, cool,
composed, non violent and seeking a govt to be elected constitutionally and
democratically by the people. They have been patient and restrained and avoiding
a direct and bloody clash with the Yellow Shirts. They are not going to give
the army a reason or a chance to stage a coup against a popularly elected govt.
What
is the next step or change of event? There could still be a coup or a revolt by
the Democrats and the Bangkok elite. What are the
options available to the Red Shirts and the majority of the Thais in the rural
north? A direct confrontation is possible but this would only lead to more
bloodshed and lost of lives and properties. Bangkok and Thailand could be burnt down, shut
down. This is an option that the Red Shirts have shown to want to avoid.
A
possible option is secession and with Thailand breaking up with the
North under the Red Shirts and Bangkok and the South under the
Yellow Shirts. Such an alternative could or could not see a civil war. The
military could be split and how they would make up is still uncertain. If they
are willing to part the country to avoid an open conflict, this secession
option could be an ideal option to the impasse. They could still opt to start a
civil war that would destroy Thailand and the Thai people. The
blood letting would be unprecedented. The cost is huge and would cripple Thailand and not desirable to all
Thais.
Which
course would the Thais choose if force to decide when the Yingluck govt is
forcefully dethroned? The Red Shirts would not take it lightly and would be
forced to take a stand. And they are in the majority and have the northern
Thaliand on their side. They are playing their cards close to their chest and
have so far refrained from posing a direct challenge to the Yellow Shirts.
Would the Yellow Shirts believe they have the support of all the Thais and push
for a climatic change through the use of violence?
Would
Thailand turn into a battle ground
for the Thais to fight one another, or would the lesser evil of a parting of
the two camps in peace? The Yellow Shirts are stubbornly holding on to an
unyielding position, either accept their way or fight. The Red Shirts are
trying to negotiate for a compromise without resorting to violence. This only
emboldens the Yellow Shirts to dig in thinking that they have the upper hand.
Either the Red Shirts be forced to fight or to take the break away path to minimize
the casualties on both sides.