11/28/2011

When the crunch comes

Seah Chiang Nee wrote the above article in his Littlespeck blog. He is reading the warnings by the political leaders of an impending recession coming Singapore’s way and how it will impact the people.

The worst hit will be the PMETs, especially those with a million dollar or half a million dollar mortgage. What will they do if one of the paymasters got retrenched?

Don’t forget that there are many who have several hundred thousand dollar mortgages in HDB flats. There are many Singaporeans in this category which includes many PRs as well. When the crunch comes, when they lose their jobs, the 30 year mortgage will not go away. They all depend solely on their monthly incomes to service the debt.

I reckon this time the impact will be much greater as the outstanding housing loan sizes are much bigger, all expecting a 30 year free ride without having to worry about any financial crisis.

Just a few months back, it was all sunny skies and full of optimism. Dark clouds are forming overnight.

Be frightened, be very frightened.

The new story

I wonder if any of you noticed the theme in the media with regards to housing. As I scanned through the articles over the last few weeks, there is a new song being sung almost daily. Small is good. Small flats are good. Small flats do not compromise on the quality of life. There are many beautiful parks outside that the people can go to for the space they want. Small flats are ideal for smaller households.

Small is the way to go. And we have a very long way to catch up with Tokyo and Hongkong, to go smaller. It is not only a trend. Our population is growing and we need to keep housing small to make way for more people, for economic growth and better quality living.

PAP Convention

Caught some reporting on the PAP Convention and Hsien Loong’s speech over the news last night. The party has done quite a bit of work in assessing the last GE and what needs to be done to win the next GE. And they are confident that they are on the right track with all the mistakes figured out and the appropriate remedial actions will be put in place. And though the party acknowledged that the next GE will see fiercer competition, and clean sweep is not that easy anymore, they are quietly confident of taking back Aljunied.

My personal view is that they are in for a rude awakening in the next GE. The ground has shifted. More and better candidates will be moving to the alternative party camps as wearing white and being invited for tea is no longer a guarantee for a safe passage to Parliament.

What about govt policies and the bread and butter issues, unemployment, housing, foreign talent, transportation etc that the people felt aggrieved about? Would there be any real changes that will win back the support of the people?

The party still believes that their policies are good for the people and supported by the people. And very likely there will be more cooked policies for discussion in Parliament, though Inderjit was advocating for more half cooked policies to be better discussed before they are cooked.

I think this is the main area that the party is going to lose more grounds as it marches towards 2016. The attitude and mentality and the logic of past policies do not seem to change. Everything is still as per normal. The rapid ramming up of public housing is only treating a superficial wound when the cancer is still growing untreated. So are the high property prices, the high population and congestion issues, and the presence of great numbers of foreigners that the govt sees as the cure all for economic growth but irks the people in general.

As long as the govt thinks it knows best and what is good for the people, it will continue to push through its bestest policies and distance itself from the people who do not agree with them. They believe that the only problem is communication with the people. That is their only fault. If they can communicate well, there is no policy problems.

How could the party with the bestest talents accept that their bestest policies have to change to appease the not so talented views of the people? This is a tough one.

Unless the party is willing to compromise its bestest policies, undermine its bestest talents effort and say, ok, the daft Singaporeans need to be listened to and their less talented views and wishes be accommodated, there will always be a conflict and constant tension between what the party wants and what the people want. Explaining to the daft Singaporeans is easy, especially with clever arguments and statistics. Would the people buy? How many ministers would be able to do the explaining and be able to win the hearts and minds of the people?

Caving in to the daft Singaporeans is never a thing that the party will give way. It is the core value of the party, they will continue to push their cooked policies through, like deaf frogs.

This is the strongest virtue of the party, to do what it thinks is best, to implement tough policies for the good of the people. The question is whether the people think so and whether the policies are really good for the people. The servants will judge the masters or the masters judge the servants? Who will have the final say?

11/27/2011

A New World Order

The recent appearance of Obama in the Asean Summit in Bali and his pronouncement of a new strategy for American dominance in the Asia Pacific Region is a reminder that the Americans have not accepted the geopolitical changes in the 21st Century. The US is still living in the era of post WW2 when everything is about American supremacy, America Number One, and US foreign policies is all about power, military superiority, confrontation, subversion, military intervention, military alliances and war to settle cross national disputes. The US and its empire, American hegemony for the last 60 odd years, are gradually being eroded by the primacy of economic growth instead of military power.

For the last few decades, American continues on its path of being the Number One military super power and spent most of its valuable financial resources to maintain that position while China on the other hand devotes its main effort in economic development and growth. The presumed power today of China being a super power is more economic than military. China has not engaged in any major warfare since the Korean War. The Americans on the other hand have been in continuous warfare ever since. It is still engaged in several wars, to uphold its image as the Number One military power, unchallenged.

The preoccupation with its world dominance and empire is best seen in its adversarial policies of building military alliances, intervention, wars and enforcing sanctions or coercions in all corners of the globe against any country that does not toe the line. From the encirclement of the Soviet bloc of countries it is now embarking on a new phase of containment of China, which is basically an emerging economic giant. China is in no haste to overtake the Americans in becoming the Number One military power for years to come. It is pure foolishness to maintain a naval fleet of several aircraft carriers and military bases across the world as the financial cost is phenomenal. Any attempt to be near what the Americans are doing will bankrupt China in no time like its is bankrupting the Americans in double quick time.

But China is sure in posing a serious challenge to America as an economic power house. And the days when China overtakes America as the biggest economy is just around the corner. For sure, being an economic super power will not make China poorer but richer and a better quality of life for the Chinese people.

So what is America’s strategy to meet the Chinese challenge to becoming the biggest economy? More military alliances, more resources and finances in the military fields, more adversarial and confrontational policies, and all of everything to maintain American hegemony, while pointing at China for being more assertive, and Chinese hegemony when there is none.

The East Asian and South East Asian countries will now be forced to take on a more confrontational position against China, on the side of the Americans. The Trans Pacific Partnership was a disguise for another military alliance against China with Australia as the key partner in the making. Japan and South Korea are likely to follow suit as semi colonies of the Empire.

Would Asean countries be drawn into this American set piece and become the frontline to the American strategy of protecting the American home land and fighting a war in other people’s territories? There is no mistake that any conflict will be in the East China Sea or the South China Sea and involving the littoral states in the region.

The Philippines and Vietnam have some reasons to want to be part of the alliance to confront China and grab a piece of the South China Sea. Would the rest of the Asean states be willing to be pawns on the American chess boards and be played, be traded or sacrificed for the American interest? What will likely be the end game?

In the American calculation, they only think America and presume that the leaders of Asean will be unthinking and will simply go along with the American agenda at their behest. Have the Asean states grown up from the days of colonialism and want to be truly independent states and not be embroiled by big power rivalry when the price to pay is their own independence and freedom to drive their own national policies? Would Asean be abandoned or subsumed by the TPP and all its effort to build a non aligned neutral regional organisation go to waste? That’s what the Americans are saying. Asean can be history.

A New World Order could be in the making when military conflict and supremacy is no longer relevant, when wars between big powers are just too destructive to be conceivable. Only madness and mad men will still be thinking of conducting war as an extention to failed diplomacy.

The New World Order could be one where every state would grow and prosper economically for the betterment of their people without military conflict. The balance of military power today is such that no one country can get away with a military conflict without getting themselves into a state of comatose. The emergence of China, Russia, India and probably other regional powers would allow the smaller states more room to navigate free of the big power politics if they choose to be. It is an opportunity for more trade and economic diplomacy than building military alliances and adopting confrontational policies that could lead to an irreparable war of a scale untold in history.

No country can bear the loss and destruction of a modern 21st Century warfare. Vietnam War was bad, with a major part of the country obliterated. But that was miniscule compare to what could happen when the big powers unleash the full might of their fire power. The thought of Australia with it few million inhabitants as a player in a major war is foolish thinking. It is not even worth a pawn in the chess board of the super powers.

Would the New World Order have a chance to succeed, or would WW2 mentality and diplomacy take precedence and a more devastating war takes its place? Whither is Asean with the Trans Pacific Partnership? Would Asean want to be counted in as a pawn in the TPP to serve American interest foremost?

11/26/2011

It takes 9 months for dental appointment

A Goh Cher Choh waited for 9 months just to see his dentist for the chance of getting a subsidised denture. And he has resigned to this new normal of efficiency in this super efficient island. The normal time for waiting is 10 months for root canal treatment, 7 months for dentures, but his case must be an exception, and 5 months for crowns and bridges. Not forgetting a year or more for braces.

But what do they expect, 1 month, 2 weeks or 1 week? Just go to a private clinic and pay for it if one cannot bear to wait. You can choose world class clinics, neighbour clinic or polyclinic, no need to complain.

Looking down memory lane, the kind of free dental care we had in the 50s and 60s was world class, heavenly, actually out of this world. And it was a time when our country was really poor, and probably not enough dentists too. Imagine, every week without fail, the Institute of Health’s bus would be at the school to pick up the students for dental treatment, including free dentures. Where got such thing as waiting for 7 months or 9 months?

Then again, if one wants something that is subsidised, what is a little waiting? The good old days are gone and that kind of experience would never be repeated in this money minded world. Compare to those waiting 3 to 4 years for their housing flats, these dental patients must count themselves very lucky.

The applicants for public housing are paying good money, in the hundreds of thousands, and they too have to wait. And the mantra is that it is their problem caused they did not plan when to get married and when to buy a flat. In my dream I heard someone saying, ‘I build only if there is enough demand. And they just have to wait 3 to 4 years.’ Is this the mentality of serving the people or the other way, I master, you servant?

Thank God that Hsien Loong had reminded his politicians that they are the servants and not the master of the people. Really, why would Singaporeans elect politicians to be their masters and happily live with it as the normal state of affair?

Iskandar, you have a golden opportunity to bum up your dental industry and what are you waiting for?

11/25/2011

The world’s most peace loving country

I can’t help it but to repeat this quote from dear Hilary.

‘…Washington is “very strongly against any nation using coercion or intimidation instead of using the law to try to resolve these issues.’

The US together with its peace loving friends in UK and Canada are imposing more sanctions against Iran for believing that Iran is building nuclear weapons which the US and UK have plenty of. And they are not using threats or intimidation against Iran. Just friendly sanctions.

And there is another level of peaceful means to resolve the issue. Both the US and Israel are openly telling the world that they are going to attack Iran’s nuclear plants. Now, please don’t get it wrong. This is a peaceful gesture to resolve the Iran nuclear issue. There is not a little hint of coercion or intimidation at all.

The Americans don’t believe in coercion or intimidation. They are so friendly and peaceful. The whole world knows about it. And they are begging the Americans to be the policeman and now the policeman is bringing in more soldiers and weapons to the Asia Pacific region to police the area for peace of course.

The weapons and soldiers are, incidentally, not to coerce or intimidate anyone. They are friendly soldiers and friendly weapons, for peace.

It is good that China is conducting a big scale naval exercise off its seas. China should conduct more of such exercises and make its stand clear about conduct in its surrounding seas, especially when other pesky countries think they can go around arresting Chinese fishermen with impunity. And also countries that happily shot at Chinese sailors and killing them.

China has to take a tough stand on such provocations or the provocations will continue to test its will. With so many provocations and if China continues to show them the other face, China will forever be slapped left and right and still be branded as an assertive and rogue nation by the rogue nations. I say wallop them when they do it.

All the pesky nations, including the rogue Americans, only understand the language of force. Obama is reminding the world that the Americans can still project its power. And it is up to China to say, hey, this is how far you can go. No more cruise missiles into Chinese Embassies or Chinese missiles can also make the same mistakes on American assets.

When dealing with thugs and gangsters, China needs to speak the same lingo and behave like them. No need to worry about the opinions of pesky nations. They have already taken sides. And the message will also get through to them.

A good cause to support PAP

It was so rare that I have to support a cause promoted by the PAP in recent years. Now there is really a good cause for all Singaporeans to support the PAP. Why is it good, it affects Singaporeans in general, some directly, some indirectly.

The PAP Youth Wing or Young PAP is going to the Speakers Corner this Saturday to speak up for lowering of transport fares for polytechnic and university students. These students, still not working and have no official income, are paying twice what college students are paying for MRT and SBS fares. They are still not financially independent and many would need support from their parents. Reducing their transport cost will help to alleviate the burden of their parents albeit in a small way. It still counts over the 3 to 4 years when they are studying.

It is good that the Young PAP is pushing for this cause. It is a cause that all Singaporeans regardless of their political inclination can share and support. Though the Young PAP has called for people turning up at Hong Lim to wear white, a symbol of cleanliness, incorruptibility and everything that is good, some have been peeved by this. I say never mind. The WP supporters can go there in their reds, some in blue, some in orange, some in pink, but all with a common goal, to fight for the lowering of fares for these students.

It will be an opportune time for all the parties to unite and tell the people that they can support a righteous and good cause no matter who raises the issue. And that all the parties will not bicker unnecessarily just because someone else and not themselves brought it up. It will show to the people that the politicians and their supporters are growing up.

I hope all the parties, PAP, NSP, SDP, WP, PKMS, SPP, SDA and any other party that I could not remember and mention, could go to Hong Lim Park this Saturday and make enough noise to support this good cause. It will be a moment when all Singaporeans are united, to stand as one.

Would that be nice?

The perplexing discovery of Sinda

Sinda did a review on the performance of Indian students in the PSLE examination. And horrors, the Indian students are underperforming in mathematics, achieving only 73% pass rate against a national average of above 80%. And many Indian students dropped out of secondary school for being unable to cope with mathematics.

This discovery is more startling given that Indians are well reputed to be maths wizards. Many of the American banks and Singapore’s financial institutions are headed by Indians, be they Singapore Indians or Indian Indians. They must be very very good in mathematics to get into those positions. Just depending on the gift of the gab would not get them that far. Their mathematical talents must have proven to be really good.

Now, what is this nonsense that Indian students are having serious problems coping with mathematics? I am scratching my head. Is our schools and teaching methodology for maths the reason for the Indian students poor grade? Cannot be, we have the best teaching methods for maths and our methods are being copied and adopted even by the Americans.

There cannot be any doubt in the genes of Indian students as there are many fine examples of top Indian finance professionals like Tharman, Gupta, and the MD of MAS just to mention a few.

What is happening man?

Communal living back in Singapore

The idea of communal living was thought to be dead since Singaporeans got richer over the years. Those hand to mouth years of living in cubicles or sharing a flat with several families, sharing kitchen, toilets and common facilities were just a bad dream best to be forgotten. Those were times when most Singaporeans were poor and they had to make do with strangers living within the same four walls.

With today’s affluence and with Singaporeans owning or leasing their own flats, it is like coming full circle to see more and more Singaporeans renting out and sharing their homes with strangers. And with flats that are built smaller and smaller, having more than one family inside a flat is like reliving the past once again.

With more retirees having to remortgage or sublet their flats, living with strangers is going to be more popular for the losers in life. But it should not affect the quality of their lives. Having more people in the flat means more company, more people to chit chat and to look after each other.

There must be some draw backs in communal living. I was reading the case of this Chinese national who killed three women and seriously injuring one in roughly one hour, in the same flat. I am not going to speculate how all the screaming and crying and shouting and banging could go on for so long without anyone barging in to stop the killing.

What I am going to say is that living with strangers can pose high risk, very high risk, for the weaker sex and the old. And the stranger could be very disarming with his friendly smile and pleasant disposition. Not to worry, this kind of things don’t happen too often. It is a risk worth taking. A few cases like this are quite normal as more and more people start to rent out their flats to strangers.

And there are many happy and warm stories to tell of communal living, of friendship built, of help and assistance given, and kindness and gratitude repaid. They get to know more people, make more friends, and help to show how friendly Singaporeans are. They will benefit from the richer experience in life.

Just a wonderful experience to many, except bad luck to a few losers. Forget to add, the quality of life will be so enriching.

11/24/2011

East Asian stability at risk if US trashes its defence budget

The above is the title of Ng E Jay’s article in his blog. And I would like to say that I completely disagree with him. Come on E Jay, you are thinking like an American now.

‘Cuts to the US military budget on the magnitude projected if the Supercommitte’s political impasse fails to be resolved would inevitably results in a significant scaling down of US military commitments worldwide, include an enormous downsizing of its global naval capabilities. This would invariably lead to increased geopolitical tensions in the ASEAN region and beyond.’ Ng E Jay

‘US military commitments worldwide’ is an American terminology to mean conducting wars worldwide. East Asia and the world would be much safer than it is today. There will be little dictators trying to throw their weights around but these will be limited to local skirmishes and small warfare. Saddam Hussein and Gaddafi will still be running the shows. There will be no big scale wars like in Iraq and Afghanistan and in Libya. Don’t forget the Korean and Vietnam Wars. There will be smaller civil wars which dictators could easily suppress without the US and Nato interfering by supplying more arms and weapons.

And small pesky countries would not dare to agitate or provoke bigger countries to risk a war on themself. China, the non belligerent country that has been painted as the trigger happy one, will be even friendlier when no pests dare to irritate her.

The trigger happy Americans are able to conduct wars everywhere exactly because they have the money to do so. Without the military budget, the world would be much more peaceful and safer. The South Koreans would not dare to rattle their sabers daily at the North Koreans. Any Singaporean who thinks that the North Koreans are going to attack Singapore should go get admitted to IMH.

The pesky countries of Asean would not dare capture Chinese sailors or make nonsensical claims against Chinese territories or ever raring to go to war with China. There will be a new balance of power and a new status quo. Peace will have a better chance when little pests know that they cannot stir trouble and think they can get away with it.

An aggressive evil power is the temptation for small countries to destabilize the region, with the evil power nudging them from behind. Fear not, for the evil power is behind them. It is a good thing if the defence budget of the US is slashed drastically. Then calm and peace shall return. They would not have the money to start wars everywhere.

All the wars are started by the Americans. Make no mistake about it. Remove the blinkers to see the truth. They create the tension, the instability, the suspicion, and then invited themselves in to be the policeman, the peacemaker, the leader. And of course, to sell more weapons.

Pension is 10% of annual salary at most

Hsien Loong has spoken on the impending findings of the Salary Review Committee, likely to be out in time for Christmas. He touched a bit on how the pension scheme works and that the max a minister will get is 10% of his annual salary. In his short revelation, everything is in percentages and nothing absolute was revealed.

What is 10% of annual salary? Or what is annual salary? Does this annual salary comprise the basic monthly salary, 13th month AWS, performance bonus and productivity bonus based on the GDP? If the annual total is $10m, 10% will be $1m, assuming that last year the bonus was really huge and the average was $10m per minister. And if the bonus was bigger, then the percentage will be smaller and vice versa.

If the pension is based on annual salary which includes many variable bonuses, presumably the pension should be variable over the years as well. But this is just too perplexing to compute. I would rather believe that the pension is based on the fixed monthly salary. Given a minister’s salary of say $3m a year, the pension of 10% should be about $300k. Right or not?

If the pension is computed using gross annual salary that includes bonuses, then something is not in order as the performance factor and GDP growth should no longer be applicable to a pensioner. As the pension is a monthly payment, even the 13th AWS should not be in the computation. It should be a simple computation based on the last drawn monthly salary and nothing else. Tiok boh? What about allowances?

The other problem about adding all the bonuses into the annual salary is that it is going to vary from year to year. So ministers retiring on a good year like George and his colleagues, the pension is going to be better than those who retire in a bad year. This doesn’t make sense.

So I would think the annual salary is based on 12 months or at most 13 months. And definitely all other allowances for all kinds of appointments other than the minister’s salary will be excluded. We will have to see what the final figure is, if it is not a state secret like the cost of building a HDB flat. If not at the very best, the figures given will be only a matter of percentages.

No self respecting human resource professionals will include performance bonuses and the country’s GDP performance as components in the computation of a person’s pension. Pension does not take into account individual or the country’s performance into the future.

11/23/2011

TPP – The Poverty Pact

The Beggar’s Sect was a very big social gang in the fables and legends of the Chinese pugilistic literature. It was a big gang of beggars that boasted of great martial arts exponents to protect their turfs and areas of operation. They set up their own rules, collect protection fees from their members and would beat up challengers to their territories and their controlled businesses.

The thing is that the Beggar’s Sect was mainly for beggars, and the rich would keep themselves away from the Sect. The Sect continued their existence with members from the begging community.

There seems to be a revival of the Beggar’s Sect in the Pacific region, led by the Americans, the country that is deep in debt. It is roping in more indebted countries as members in a pact called the TPP, standing for the Trans Pacific Partnership, or is it The Poverty Pact? And it is beating all the drums to make it attractive and teasing China to join the pact. The thing is whether China, with all the money in its treasury, and being the biggest creditor of the US, would want to join the poor countries that could only shout but with nothing left in its treasury?

Would China be deceived into joining the TPP or The Poverty Pact? Anyway, with Asean as an established regional grouping of countries and linking up with the big economic countries of the world, is there a need for a new pact to be led by a poor country from the eastern Pacific coast that is many thousands of miles away? Why should these Asian and Southeast Asian countries be led by a country in America? Are they that helpless, and lack of leaders to need to be led by someone else who simply walked in and say I am your leader?

And there is also an APEC. So why dance to a new pact because the Americans say so? APEC and Asean are all redundant and there is a need for another new animal to get things done?

Apple polishing in the corporate world

The Tokyo and Osaka stock exchanges are in the final stages of a merger to reemerge as a bigger stock exchange. Merger and acquisition is the magic formula of advanced corporate and business management principals. Corporation seeks quick growth and profits by simply merging and acquiring other corporations. It is swift and instant growth.

When the time frame to show results by top management is reduced to a couple of years, M&A is the quick solution. And short term gain is matched by short term policies and management practices. Corporation intending to do M&A only needs to put its house in order, or appears to be in order. Patch up the leaking holes temporary with stop gap measures, giving it a new coat of paint and hope that the ship will reach the next port intact. The whole ship could be rotting, but as long as it looks good from the outside, and can sail for a while, that is good enough.

The next most important thing to do is to go out quickly to merge or acquire another healthy ship to boost its bottom line before it sinks. What the top honchos forget is that other corporations could also be indulging in the same apple polishing to look good on the outside and waiting for an unsuspecting suitor. The merger could be between two rotten apples hoping to turn into a shiny apple through the copulation.

The old concept of organic growth, which is slow, tedious and a lot of hard work, is shelved permanently by all the MBAs from the top business schools. There is no need to work so hard, the way to real growth. They have no time for such crappy business idea. Too slow and too difficult. Take the short cut, M&A and lo and behold, a bigger corporation with bigger net worth overnight. Everything becomes bigger, bigger risk, bigger problem, bigger cost, and bigger hole. Uh no, economies of scale man!

Do not be awed by the M&As that are going on in the corporate world. It may be the in thing today. It is not necessarily the right thing to do or a good thing. A rotten apple is a rotten apple. It is the equivalent of banks indulging in big time gambling for quick and easy profit. When the fundamentals are unsound, M&A is a short cut for destruction as the resources were assigned to do apple polishing instead of running and building a sound organization. Quickies are in favour just to look good on paper and in the eyes of the unsuspecting and gullible spectators.

Many young people are also looking for such M&As, to marry the scions of a rich family and lo behold, the merger will bring instant wealth, and recognition, to sit in big companies, to run big corporations.

11/22/2011

The cost of returning home

Two young Singaporeans having settled down in America for a few years could have bought a decent landed property for $300k or $400k, driving around in a fairly big car for $30k, and have a decent savings of perhaps two or three hundred thousand bucks.

If they were to return to paradise, selling their home for about the same amount and with a net cash of three quarter of a million, they could at best buy a private condo and still having to take a few hundred thousand bucks in loan. Eventually the private flat is going to cost them perhaps $2m in total. And they need to buy a small car that is going to cost at least $100k.

Their net financial position is negative, with a big mortgage and hardly anything left in their savings. This is the price of returning home. And there is job hunting to do. It is like being robbed of a couple of million bucks on returning home to stay. Yes, they can go and rent a flat and live like FTs.

In the case of a foreign talent from the neighbouring countries, most of them would not have much of a property anyway. They came, got a job, rented a place and started savings. Few years down the road, placed all their savings for a public flat and service them with their CPF. The value of the flat can only go up, like a savings account with guaranteed 5% to 10% interest rate equivalent, maybe more. Then they start to count the days when they could cash out and return home to be a rich man, or in the US or Australia to start life with a reasonable good cash holding from the sale of their public flat.

The two tales tell of the comparative advantage of Singaporeans returning home to pay a huge ransom for something less and a foreigner who came with nothing much but leaving with a pretty nice cash hoard. And this is not far from the truth. The cost of living is a heavy price to pay. The only good option is to cash out and move out. But his option is not so attractive to Singaporeans who called this island home.

New trade war in the Pacific

The US is starting to relocate its military equipment and soldiers into the Pacific Rim countries, primarily Japan, S Korea and now Australia, with potential to locate in Vietnam and the Philippines as well. The stage is being set up for an arms confrontation with China. It is a move for war, not for peace.

American warships are sailing more frequently around the eastern Pacific as a show of force, that the number One marine super power is there and will be unchallenged. They sure look very formidable and impressive.
The question is whether these warships could sail so freely in the eastern Pacific Ocean when hostility is declared. The Chinese DF21D, its ASBM or anti ship ballistic missile, has a range of 3000 km from its coast, covering practically the whole of the eastern Pacific Ocean. This means that all big ships within the 3000 km radius could be hit. This would then become the No Sail Zone for American ships if war is declared.

The current show of force will no longer be possible and it is unlikely that the Americans would dare to risk their aircraft carriers, battleships, frigates or any big floating vessels within the DF21D strike range. The eastern Pacific Ocean will be a cemetery for China’s enemy ships.

Should China have full control of the seas around its coast, what can the Americans do? It will be a war whereby China will trade its ASBMs for aircraft carriers and battleships. The Americans will again suffer a huge trade deficit as the cost of each ASBM is negligible compares to the American ships.

The eastern Pacific Ocean will be the equivalent of a maritime Dien Bien Phu with the reach of the ASBMs. It is enter at your own risk. The missiles will come raining.

If the Americans are thinking of their bases in South Korea and Japan, forget it. They will be the first to be taken out of the equation. This is not the 1840s when the Chinese cannons could not hit the British and American ships while the latter could hit the Chinese mainland.

This new trading game is going to be very costly to the Americans and its allies for sure. It is so economical and efficient to keep the American carrier groups away from the eastern Pacific coast with just the deployment of ASBM batteries along the Chinese coast. This is the strangest development since the British and American wooden boats could attack China at will in the 1840s.

11/21/2011

Obama restores US influence in 8 days

The New York Times is gloating how successful Obama and his team was in becoming the leader of the eastern Pacific region. I quote, ‘The meeting, at the end of the summit, capped a week during which the US President moved quickly, and on several fronts, to restore the influence of the US in the Asia Pacific region after a decade of preoccupation in the Middle East…Obama announced that 2,500 Marines would be stationed in Australia, opened the door to restored ties with Myanmar, a Chinese ally, and gained support for a regional free trade bloc that so far omits Beijing.’

What did Asean achieve if any? Oh yes, they have accepted the leadership of the US and invited the US to back them up in their territorial dispute with China in the South China Sea. It is a great achievement for the small Asean states to install the world’s most powerful country as their leader. They can now start to pressurize China and even go to war with China with no fear.

Kuan Yew Lee’s struggle with the Chinese Language

His new book touches on a very controversial subject in the history of this little island. The use of the Chinese Language or Mandarin instead of Hokien, was a battle among the Chinese intellectuals, the literati and the hoi polloi, the majority Hokien speaking Chinese, and to an extend the other dialect groups. Mandarin was not their mother tongue, spoken by the northern Chinese and used as the potong hua of China, its national language. There must be tension with competitive chauvinism of the various dialect groups feeling that they have been short changed to be forced to learn a new language. The Ah Kongs and Ah Mahs were the primary victims.

Tension was also built up among the minority communities, the Malays, Indians and Eurasians. All the talks about Speak Mandarin Campaigns and the promotion of Mandarin did not come down easy on them. Some fear that Mandarin was going to replace English as the lingua franca of the country. Of course this was unfounded and for all practical purposes not workable.

Kuan Yew Lee’s struggle to learn the language transcended all of two generations of his life time. In the process, transforming a baba into a China man, to reclaim his Chinese heritage which I think he is proud of, but at the same time being the quintessential Singaporean that he represents. He has rediscovered his roots and himself through this journey of learning the language once again.

In my last few articles on the writing of Chinese names, I was being provocative and teasing at the lackadaisical approach of Singaporean Chinese in how they fool around with this fundamental pillar of a civilization. The language is one of the key foundation of a culture and embraces many tangible and intangible aspects of the people that use it as a communication tool. There are some logic, some structure and of course a lot of room to play with as it develops over time. There were many changes to this language since the time of the Qin Emperor. The simplified written form was a major departure from the past. But as a single unifying and common language, it still serves that purpose effectively and efficiently.

At this juncture I shall disband my cheeky editorial policy of writing Chinese name in the western format. It is nonsensical and silly to do so. It is not only rude and insulting to the individual, it is an affront to a well structured and developed ancient language and culture. Kuan Yew Lee shall be Lee Kuan Yew and so will Chok Tong Goh be Goh Chok Tong. This format of writing Chinese name is deep in culture, history and philosophy and must not be taken lightly and be dismissed by the duckweeds of the Chinese civilization, be they called themselves Singaporean Chinese or Chinese Singaporeans, Malaysian Chinese, American Chinese, Indonesian Chinese, Thai Chinese or whatever Chinese.

Chua is my family name dating back to the Zhou Dynasty, and Chin Leng in my individual name. Incidentally, the Goh, Chew, Chua,Ong, and Tsao were from the same family tree.

11/20/2011

The Asean Summit coming to a close in Bali

The American South East Asian Nation (Asean) Summit has come to an end with the leader saying farewell and flying back to North America. But before he left, there was the courtesy photo taking session, a generous gesture for the South East Asian leaders to bring home a photo to show they had been with the Emperor of the Empire. And the host country Indonesia was given the honour of having its president standing on the left of Obama while the Chinese leader sharing the honour on his right.

Who is calling the shot at the Summit is without doubt. And Obama staked his claim to the throne with no reservations. He even despatched his top envoy to Myanmar to test the country’s political and economic reform. Failing the test will have dire consequences and could be booted out by the Empire from Asean.

The menu for the gala dinner for the leaders was all American except for soto ayam madura, to show some appreciation to Indonesia. The Asean Summit was a big success to the Americans to stamp their leadership of the regional group. They set all the agenda for the meeting and stating clearly their intent to show that they are the Number One military power, and will set the rules for arms conflicts as well policing the South China Sea. They are stationing their troops in Australia and, according to Kevin Rudd, it was not meant for China. Who is the target of the American troops’ presence in Australia if not China?

Hail the Emperor of the newly constituted Asean, the American South East Asian Nations regional grouping of countries led by America.

11/19/2011

I am Chin Leng Chua

This is how PayPal addressed me in an email. So my shift in editorial policy is in a way forward looking, and accepting a new reality, that Chinese name should be written in the same format as western names. Maybe that’s how the word bastard comes about, bastardising. And so far no one seems to have any issue with it. The only little irritation is that for those westerners who have been to Asia and are familiar with the Chinese convention, they are going to address me as Mr Chin. On the other hand the ignorant country bumpkin westerners would now be happy and correctly addressing me as Mr Chua.

Some of our sophisticated western educated elite are more far sighted and have long given up the thousand years of tradition of writing their Chinese name the wrong way. Many are happily and proudly writing their family names on their backside. They are the trend setter of Singaporean Chinese or Chinese Singaporeans.

I think it is okay to write our names anyway we like, be flexible and even be regarded as modern, avant garde. I just thought of another way of writing Chinese name, not an original idea as I have seen some media doing it oledy. Okay I can write my name as Chua, Chin Leng. The comma will now denote that it is my family name or first name and people will know what it means.

Nevermind the intricacies. People will understand when they look at them. John Smith shall also be written as Smith, John, like the telephone directory. Clinton, Hilary, or Lee, Hsien Loong. This is getting interesting except for so many commas.

Let’s see how it goes. Maybe two weeks later I might come out with another foolish way of writing Chinese names. My main intention is to standardise the way names are written so that everyone can understand how to address the person correctly. My little blog is the least significant place to try to set an international convention in name writing. Perhaps Singapore, with our ability to punch above our weight, should be influential enough to do such a thing. Maybe one of our world renowned institutions can form a committee with a few prominent professoris, foreign talents better still, to formulate a new world order in how names, east and west, should be written. But a note of caution. Just make sure that their credentials are not fake.

The thousand years of civilisation and how names shall be written to be acceptable in this modern world must now give way because we Singaporeans are confusing the world with our frivolous ways of writing names to accommodate the English speaking world. Instead of making things better, more are getting confused. So we need to live to our name as a trend setter, not follower, to lead the world in name writing.

What other queer combinations can we come up with?

11/18/2011

America is a Pacific power!

We are back! We have the most alliances and the most powerful military to set rules and police the Pacific region. We are here to contain the regional ambition of China.

While the Americans were thumping their chests and bosom, China continues to do what it knows best, as the factory of the world, buying and selling to the world. There is no need for China to claim to be a regional power or super power. Only those that are ambitious or losing it will have to keep screaming at the top of their voices that they are superpowers. China should continue to progress quietly and when it is successful, whatever recognition and trappings of power will just tag along. But it must maintain a powerful military to repel the rogue govts’ attempt to invade its territories.

In the meantime let the Americans do what they did best, in trying to be the leader of Asean, telling Asean what to do, leading Asean by the nose. And they can keep on trying to divide Asean countries by stirring up their differences, playing nice to some and thumping down those that would not go along. Yes, divide and rule, and the Asean countries are clearly breaking up with some willingly accepting the American leadership to confront China.

I think the days of Asean being an independent non aligned regional grouping of countries will be over soon. It will be Asean with the A in front representing America. It will become America South East Asian Nations. It will become the successor of the failed SEATO, a political military bloc that was designed by the Americans for confrontation and war with the Communist bloc during the Cold War era.