3/06/2009
What I would call a badly managed and irresponsible stock market
Financial institutions across the world are licking their wounds and there were many red faces around. One exception is the stock markets. Despite the meltdown, no one is complaining, it seems, and the plight of the investors losing their fortunes were left untold.
Many stock markets are victims of the financial tsunami. They cannot be sheltered from the onslaught. But many could have fared better while some actually dealt themselves in with many bad decisions.
Some of the things I dread are as follows.
1. Reckless and rapid flooding of the market with IPOs.
2. Lack of control over dubious corporations.
3. Allowing the market to be manipulated or cornered by syndicates.
4. Allowing short selling in an imperfect market.
5. Hands off to irresponsible corporations making cash calls when liquidity is tight.
6. Allowing the erosion of values of stocks when some intervention is necessary.
7. Continue to multiply market instruments through more derivatives.
8. Deregulations when regulations is seriously wanting.
These are some of my preliminary thoughts.
3/05/2009
GIC lost 25% on paper
The media quoted LKY saying that GIC's portfolio fell 25% from its peak and was managing only $150b. For the 25% fall, I will strongly recommend that GIC take out a couple of billions to reward the staff for such a scintillating performance. It has greatly outperformed the market indices which fell about 40%.
On the second point of $150b, I am very puzzled. Why was it reported in so many media reports that GIC was managing something like $550b? This is not a 10 or 20% error. It was inflated by almost 4 times what GIC has. Now, which is the real number? No one should question LKY as he is the GIC Chairman and it was like words from the horse's mouth.
Some may wonder how come GIC is managing a portfolio that much smaller than Temasek. But fact is fact. Would the reputable and highly reliable media do some ground work to confirm the facts?
Riding a fast train or a Titanic
LKY had a dialogue with the media organised by Thomson Reuter yesterday. His mind was still as lucid as ever though his body may not be willing. Picturing him climbing the steps to a rally platform or walking the ground is not going to be easy. The question is whether he still wants to be in charge. Some may challenge this proposition, that he is no longer in charge and the baton has long been passed to Chok Tong, and now Hsien Loong.
Come again? What would one make out of a man who would jump out from his grave if he senses something is wrong and say that he is not in charge? Then again, with so many hitches and slips and things going badly wrong, LKY is still very cool, as if nothing has gone wrong.
Two possibilities. Either nothing is wrong or he doesn't think that they were wrong. If nothing is wrong, he does not need to do anything. If he does not think they were wrong, even if they were seriously wrong, then he still does not need to do anything.
So what is happening? Are we like the rich and famous making merry inside a Titanic, having full trust in the ship, the captain and his crew, unknowing of the giant iceberg and rough sea outside, in the dark? Maybe the Titanic is not a good example.
We could be in a fast train, rushing at full speed ahead, with clear sky, maybe a bit hazy at times, and under talented drivers. Is there a cliff ahead that the train will fall over? No, all clear ahead. We have control.
LKY said he did not see a need for a snap election now. If he is in charge, that's it. If he is not, a snap election there will be. Who is in charge ultimately, or maybe the election is just an issue that the one in charge can step aside but keep an eye on it from the sideline.
Will LKY never be in charge?
3/04/2009
Rainbows and omens
The sighting of rainbows is now arousing a lot of interests. Every sighting keeps people guessing, is it a good sign or a bad sign? The lightning strike on the merlion is definitely a bad sign. It caused damages and money to repair. And some tourists may not have the chance to take pictures with the merlion in the background. It may be a disappointment in their holidays here.
Rainbows are a different kind of things. They don't hurt or harm anyone. Quite a pretty sight actually. And they appear often after a downpour, washing away all the bad stuff in the air and on the ground. It gives the impression of a new begining, leaving the unhappy past behind.
A better and promising tomorrow awaiting. That's what a rainbow says.
The next General Election
There have been all kinds of speculation of a snap election. The only thing that got snapped was the merlion. What else will be snapped? Another interesting question that is being raised is the possibility of LKY contesting for another term. How preposterous to suggest that he is too old and should resign. At 85, he has done everything, he should be singing My Way in the karaoke clubs.
Now, would the electorate still think that it is worthy and deserving to vote an octogenarian to be an MP? I think everyone will have his way of looking at this queer possibility. There are many reasons for him to stay in politics, and many reasons for him to quit. Should the decision be made by him or should it be a decision to be made by the party, or by the people?
The story will not have a pleasant ending should he be voted out by the people. Would he consider leaving a legacy as a never defeated MP? Or would he dally with the possibility of a bridge too far?
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