Help is along the way

Should we be frightened by it again? We have experienced many helps in the past that we wonder whether we are better off with or without the help. Like it or not, the people will be getting help. We get help in good times and in bad times. And help reaches everyone other than those that are really rich. So should Singaporeans be looking forward for more help? In the current state of the economy, Singaporeans have no choice but to look for help. The richest country in Asia next to Japan and its people are in trouble and waiting for help. This time it will take more than a Tan Kin Lian to help them. What if help does not come? Can we imagine how paradise will become?

One Pinnacle crumbled, one more to come

The announcement of Pinnacle Notes 9 and 10 becoming worthless is another bad news to hit the Singaporean investors. Another 700 investors are hit this time, adding to the earlier lists involving minibonds and high notes and low notes. These are events that have come to fruition and now it is only about picking up the pieces. I am looking at another Pinnacle that may hit the innocent Singaporeans. This one is waiting to happen and can still be avoided. I am referring to the Pinnacle at Duxton. The HDB has happily added another $200k to the prices of the flats on offer in the second round. It claims that it is justifiable as the market prices of similar flats in the same area have gone up much higher. Actually it could be more than $200k if not of the subsidies against market prices. Now, given the recession, people losing jobs, losing money in investments, property prices coming down, there is a high possibility that if these new buyers are going to pay $200k more, they could find themselves paying much more before they move in should the market turn down. So there will be another batch of eager buyers going in with their eyes wide open. Should that happen, it probably may not, Tan Kin Lian would be very busy again. And Hong Lim Park will see more activities and visitors, this time from new home buyers. Would this Pinnacle crumble like the Pinnacle Notes 9 and 10? The flats would not become worthless for sure. But if the price drop is substantial, the new flat owners would not be too happy either.

The ‘lepers’ of Paradise

Were they abandoned? They were frightened, lost, in despair and crying for help. But their voice was lost in the din of heavy traffic and the vibrancy of a city in a hurry. No one heard them. For many who heard, the replies were rather dismissive. They were greedy. They knew what they were in for and they should walk away without an arm or a leg. That is the rule of the game. In their hour of desperation came a shining light. He came not sitting on a golden chariot. Neither did he have any trappings of authority or marks of approval. He stood on the mount in Hong Lim. He spoke and they listened. And they followed him. A leader has risen in adversity. A bond has been built between the lost sheep and the man who is to lead them. He could be the stone that the builder has rejected. And this could become the cornerstone of a new movement. There was a genuine and urgent need for leadership of a different kind, a leadership that is built on the need and helplessness of a people who are looking for one. It was a classic storybook scenario for great men to rise to lead. The natural leaders of the people will come forward to serve, not for money, but to answer the people’s call. This is real leadership.

Confucianism or Confusionism

The ideology of Confucianism is very clear about the roles of people and their relationship in society. Everyone has a proper place and should behave accordingly. The king must behave like a king and be responsible for his kingly roles. The people must be people and go about their lives as the ruled. Also, people must behave responsibly to fellow human beings. The father or mother must be what they are, as responsible parents. Relationships and roles are clearly structured, no overlapping or crisscrossing, no confusion. And no wearing multiple hats of conflict and contradiction. When such conditions exist, society or country will be orderly and peaceful. When the roles are mixed or interwoven, when king acts like commoners, or parents like irresponsible children, or acting as both, everything under heaven will be in turmoil. Applying these to our present polity, I can see only Confusionism instead of Confucianism. What we have today is a govt that is not only the govt but also in business. And businesses, with govt participation, think or sometimes behave like they were the govt. The workers are represented by the Union. The Union is also the govt, or led by the govt. So the govt is the union and is the worker and vice versa. This confused or complex state of beings has completely blurred the respective roles and responsibilities of the organizations. Obviously the design of these organizations to be in this way was cleverly crafted to operate in harmony and efficiency. When things are running smoothly, the system will be greatly admired and appreciated. We have attributed our success and good fortunes to these creations, tripartism, Singapore Inc, privatized public hospitals and privatised public business organizations etc etc. But when things start to go wrong, when there is conflict of interest, people get confused. What are they supposed to do when they are 3 in 1, govt, business and people? The holy trinity is supreme only in the heavenly abode when each can switch roles instinctively with ease without compromising one another. In the earthly dimension, human beans are not that godly to be able to switch their roles efficiently. A time delay often occurs when the incumbent responsible has to decide which hat he wants to wear or should wear. The minibond crisis and the great retrenchment are classic examples of how people got confused in their roles. There are many other examples. Should they act on the side of the govt, or on the side of business, or on the side of the people? Which is the correct role to play? It is Confusionism at its best. In the midst of this confusion, Tan Kin Lian rises to lead the people when many people and organizations should be doing so but not doing. Once the void is filled, the divide gets clearer and wider by the days. Confucianism is good when there is no confusion. Confusionism is troublesome.

Graciousness by examples

We have been talking about being a gracious people for many years with campaigns and leaders teaching and guiding the people on how to be gracious. I think being gracious must be something good and desirable. It speaks a lot about what a person is when the person is being complimented as a gracious person. Straits Times Senior Correspondent, Lim Siew Hua, wrote an article about how gracious McCain was in his concession speech after losing the Presidential Election to Obama. Or was it American graciousness rather than the graciousness of a single man? Al Gore was equally gracious when he lost to George Bush. And that incident was particularly disturbing and veered towards the element of fraud or misdeeds. It would be disastrous if it happens here. So were the other losing Presidential candidates. They all had kind words to say about the victors. But graciousness is not only from the losers. The victors were equally gracious and magnanimous to their defeated opponents. They only have praises for them and could have hugged and kissed them once the election is out of the way. Obama talked about what a wonderful man and hero McCain was. And after the election it begins a healing process when both parties come together as one people. There will be post mortems, but not to find out what wrongs were committed by the other party and to settle scores. No one is going for the butcher knife. That is the graciousness of a people of a great country. But America has more than 200 years of history to learn how to be gracious. It takes time to learn the nice things about life. Learning to be an expert in expletives, in being bad, is easy. In fact it is so natural that no learning is required. To be gracious is a difficult thing to learn, and to be.

The people are ready for minority PM

Not only are the people ready for a minority PM, the political system is also ready for it. We have the GRC to ensure the presence of minority MPs. And we have a system whereby the PM is elected by the cabinet or core leaders which can be counted by a pair of hands or maybe add a pair of legs. These are the wise men and women that decide who is the PM, not the people. The people are not ready? Who says so? Is there a poll being conducted? From the discussion in the media and cyberspace, the majority are all very happy to have a minority as a PM. They all believe in meritocracy and the best man or woman wins. And this feeling for a minority PM is especially more pronounce among the majority as many have already been colour blind after 45 years of being a Singaporeans. Look at the inter racial marriages taking place and you will know that the majority loves the other races more than their own kind, and have no inkling of racial differences. Malay, Indian, European, all are happily married to the majority. And many from the majority have spoken up in favour of a minority PM. And we have tested this with the elected Presidency. The current elected President is a minority and happily accepted by the majority. He is also very popular across the races. In short, Singaporeans are already colour blind. I am not too sure of the new citizens who are still very conscious of their own ethnic identity.

Union should stand up to face more retrenchment

With Singapore's number one bank firing 900 staff, other banks and companies could take the cue and go into full drive to shed the unnecessary fat that they have accumulated during the hazy days of good profits. Time to start trimming the excesses and grow lean. What will the union do in the face of more workers facing the chopping block? Lim Swee Say has made the harshest comment so far on DBS. But what's next? We have more than 10 years in converting our rigid pay structure to a flexible one with built in flexi wage and bonuses just for a day like this. Apparently this has been forgotten and everyone is happily wielding the axe as the cure all of the ills of years of irrational exuberance. There are many other measures that can be implemented other than just axing staff, plus the flexi wage system. There is still a last cut from the CPF. But this is still a long way off. For companies that believe in equal misery and every employee is a member of the big family, that they are caring employers, the first thing to do is to cut bonuses and later wage reduction, early retirement etc. Given the present crisis, some jobs will not be there anymore and this is a unique problem of its own. The unions must have a list of criteria to look at before giving the nod for companies to cut jobs. Are the companies still profitable? What is the bottom line before union will agree to such a drastic measure? Have other alternatives been explored and adopted that are less painful? Would the retrenchment mean that those who stay will enjoy no loss in pay or benefits? And like it has happened before, after a few months, companies that retrenched staff start to hire again and paying huge bonuses that they benefited from the retrenchment. Companies also have a responsibility as a corporate citizen. If everyone is so trigger happy to cut staff, we will have a big unemployment problem in hand and many families are going to have a hard time. It is time that companies, especially those that are 'protected' in some ways be it monopoly or special privileges, connections etc be made to absord some of the pains of the recession and stop thinking that making profit is a guaranteed right of being. It is time that they accept that in bad times, they must absord some losses and look after their employees. The investors were told to take their losses for bad decisions in investing in wrong notes. The union should pass this message through and wave the red flag and cry foul.

The lesser beings are trembling

The lesser beans in Japan and Australia are trembling in fear of short sellings in their stockmarkets. Australia yesterday announced that they would continue to restrict shortsellings in their market. The higher beans in paradise are still so confident that they can manage short selling in the market and are not doing anything about it. Or they are oblivious to the damage that it is causing to the investors here and the viability of the stock market in the long run. We are simply brilliant!

A matter of ethics

How ethical are we? The word ethics becomes popular over the last few weeks. Even the minibond fiasco becomes a case of ethics to some. But that was pushing it a bit far. The minibond issue is a simple commercial issue, a contractual issue, with legal documents. Once you sign on the dotted line accepting what were written in the document, and if it says you will die after reading it, just too bad. Go to courts, they will interpret it legally. There are contractual terms and obligations. Tough huh? Ethics became an issue in the case of donors of human eggs for scientific experiments. These donors can donate but cannot reap monetary benefits from it. Next came the issue of organ donors. They too should not benefit from donating their organs. But the committe back off a little by saying that some compensation can be made as long as they are not worst off or better off. So the pedicab drivers cannot take more for donating their organs. It will be seen as organ trading. But the specialists operating for these organs can charge for the sky and be paid handsomely for it. Both are saving lives. To stretch the argument a little further, can hospitals whose mission is to save lives be allowed to charge as much as they want as long as the patient can afford to pay for it? Is this a matter of ethics or a matter of business? Is it ethical to keep raising prices of everything because it is convenient to do so and the people cannot object to it? It is quite strange to be discussing about ethics and not being ethical to make money when everyone lives by that principle. Make profits, legally or illegally, is an admirable trait. It is called talent here.

FT PM also can consider

I posted about the possibility of a minority PM and issues like keeping foreigners as PRs as well as having different PMs for different ethnic groups. I am not having much of a discussion, or interest shown in them. Is it a case of distinterest or apathy? Anyone agree or disagree with what I have said? I taunted by saying that the 3 Indian ministers are better than the rest of the majority and I thought this will provoke some reactions. Maybe everyone agrees huh? Or maybe not. Maybe all our locals are not good enough and we should be looking at the new citizens, the FTs that are presumably better than the locals and are here to save us and provide us with better genes. The first foreign talent I have in mind is Gong Li. She is making a lot of money and well known internationally. How? At least she makes more money than any of our ministers and should qualify as a supertalent. The next possible candidate is Taksin. A former PM looking for a job and a home. And he has proven himself more than worthy in all areas to be a possible PM. I think he will have no problems blending in here as he has been here many times. And he has money! Hey, how about Vijay Singh? He was here before, like Obama in Indonesia. He should feel very comfortable being one of us. And he is a supertalent as well, making a lot of money and world famous. These are candidates that we can identify with. And there are many more who are already citizens and living with us. I think our talent pool is much richer now with all the FTs who have turned citizens.

Mission confused or mixed up kids

The pricing of HDB flats to market prices is just a natural and convenient process. When market prices go up, prices of HDB flats must go up. But HDB is also kind enough to price them with a market subsidy so that the buyers still pay less than the market price. Is that not fair? Yes it is fair, and very logical and very reasonable too. What about the immediate and long term consequences of higher property prices? The immediate problem to the new buyers is that their money shrinks every time the market price goes up. The young couple could be saving for their $300k dream flat. And they think they have saved enough only to find that money still not enough because the $300k flat is now $500k. Thanks to the appreciation of property prices and HDB’s pricing policies. And thanks to the great subsidy the HDB is giving them. But money still not enough after several years of savings. It is like chasing an illusion. Ok, buy a smaller dream flat. Don’t buy what you cannot afford. That’s life man! Profit is good. Why shouldn’t HDB make the extra profit when they can? Making profit from who and for what? The person who made this clever decision should be rewarded with a $10m bonus. The decision is so brilliant and the profit so clean and easy. But he shall remember that he has just hung a $200k millstone on the neck of the new buyers. And the affected buyers are not going to think kindly of it. Even donating his millions to charity will not be enough to amend the losses or burdens that the people will have to carry. As a govt body, the mission is to serve the people, not simply making more profit from every opportunity. It is an unnecessary decision that HDB need not make. A smaller increase would be much palatable. Instead, the $200k will be seen as an opportunistic decision by a mixed up organisation that forget its main mission. And it will reflect badly on what govt is all about. When the roles of govt and business got entangled and the bearing lost, this is what the people can expect. When the govt thinks it is doing business and when business thinks it is the govt, everything will be turned upside down.

We create our own model and our own problems

During the early days of our independence, we were still suffering from the colonial hangovers. The residence were not all citizens and still lived as if they were British subjects. Home or obligation was to their motherlands. This island was a transitional place, to make a living and to return to their homelands. Do they bother about who became the Prime Minister or was he of a particular race? In fact they were more accustomed to a European face as the political master. And if not, anyone would do. It was not their concern. For those who were eligible to vote, a minority, they could vote whoever they want. No hard feelings, no emotional attachment, no ethnic pride to boot. They knew that they were just migrants, did not belong here. After 45 years of independence and nation building, we have created a fragile nation from the various races. We wanted one people regardless of race and religion. But we also want every race to retain their own identity as their cultural ballasts. The is our paradox. We want to be one but our policies do not turn us into one. Our identity card still says we are of this or that race. Can we then rise above our racial divide and become one people? There was a time when we were moving closer as one people. Then we have this influx of foreigners whom we called new citizens. They came and they accentuate our differences more distinctly. We are back to square one, to redevelop a new people from all over the world. As the number increases, prepare for more diversities and pulls into all directions. If we have let our socio political development to continue without the disruption of the new citizens, the issue of what colour is our PM will be naturalised over time and a good man will be seen as a good man, regardless of race or religion, and will just fit into the shoe without much hullaboo. The more we raise such questions, the more will be the awareness of our differences and the sensitivity of why not a minority PM. Only time can overcome such differences. But if we keep diluting the pot and prevent a Singaporean identity to surface, we only have ourselves to blame. Two possible path forward to alleviate such an issue. Since we have regarded PRs as locals, it may be better to keep them as PRs. Then they will know how to shut up and stop demanding for their rights as a citizen and for their own PMs, like what we were during the colonial time. The other is to continue what we are doing, have more new citizens and be prepared for the new interest groups to demand recognition of their tribes. Maybe we should evolved a system with 4 or 5 PMs each of difference races.

No easy way out

When asked, Lim Swee Say said that cutting CPF is a last resort and should only be used after all measures have failed. I would presume that retrenchment should be a last resort for companies to take when they are trimming cost. Retrenchment is a very painful process and has a serious psychological effect on the affected staff and should not be treated lightly. Are we going to see more companies starting their retrenchment exercises as we enter a phase of recession? If that is the alternative, pay cut or CPF cut could be more palatable. The Union's stand is that no company will be allowed to take the easy way out by retrenching staff in difficult times.

No snake oils allowed

It took so many years and a big bust to realise how dangerous the pseudo bonds and notes were. Many the world over were mesmerised by the 'sophistications' of these derivatives and other similar products like CDOs and credit default swaps. As long as they are from Wall Street, as long as the Americans think that they are good, who is wiser to say no to these products. We do now although many still think that there is nothing wrong with such products. Whole industry has sprung up to service and participate in the euphoria of these high earning and high growth financial snake oils. Their failure will now see the industry collapses and many people going out of job. No one is going to touch any of these derivatives for a long time to come. But they will mutate and sneak in again in different forms. Hopefully everyone will be wiser and more careful in scrutinising any such products in the future. There are similar products in the stock markets that are no better than snake oils. There are many highly sophisticated instruments being peddled to the unsophisticated punters who just know how to punt without the knowledge or ability to understand how they work. And there are the flawed IPOs that should never be listed at all but only through the collusion of a number of participants that made them possible. And the end result is that they collapsed within a few years but after taking all the money from the innocent investors. So far no one has been taken to task or held accountable for such misleading IPOs and products. The auditors and rating agencies and issue managers just pat their backside and life goes on as if nothing happens. The investors who lost their monies are expected to accept their fate as a bad choice, as something inevitable. It is time to stop snake oils from being peddled to innocent investors. No snake oil or tainted milk is allowed in our financial system. We have seen it, know what they are. There is no reason to let it be and do nothing. It is irresponsible to let them come in after seeing the dangers they pose to the investors. We must be responsible to ensure that innocent investors are protected from snake oils and tainted milk.

Lehman Bros being sued

Sued for misleading investors Nov 10, 2008 Suit against Lehman, UBS seeks an order certifying it as a class-action. LEHMAN Brothers Holdings Inc's Chief Executive Officer Richard Fuld and UBS AG's US brokerage were accused in a lawsuit of misleading investors who bought Lehman's 'principal protected notes' before its September bankruptcy. The complaint, filed on Nov 6 in federal court in Manhattan, claims Mr Fuld and 10 other past and current Lehman directors deceived investors about the risks of buying notes that are now almost worthless, Bloomberg news reported on Monday. The suit seeks unspecified damages and an order certifying it as a class-action, or group lawsuit, on behalf of other investors.... The above was posted in Tan Kin Lian's blog. I am just wondering how it will affect the cases here if Lehman Bros is found guilty, and has to compensate the investors in full. Will the investors here be entitled to the same full compensation, maybe with damages as well, despite the fact that they have read and signed the disclaimers, that they are implied to have agreed with all the terms in the sales agreements?

06.06.06 and 66.6 are ominous signs

Too coincidental, too bad. Believers of these signs will say, 'I tell you so.' These are signs that may not be relevant to the non believers. But these are not the only signs that are appearing since the ominous day of 06.06.06. Things are happening and getting more serious in nature. The very first inkling of things going awry was the Wee Shu Min episode. This established the kind of discord and the distancing of the elite from the losers in paradise. The divide was not only widening but became public. Then came NKF, Mas Selamat, delay of CPF withdrawal, the ERPs, no pay rise for the workers, high prices of everything, and now the financial crisis. I must not forget to mention the banning of a cycling event in a park. Though these events were trying, testing to the govt, they could be handled and turned towards the govt's favour. Unfortunately every single event was handled in a way that left much to be desired. The consequences were the lost of political capital. Wonder if there is any left in the bag for the next general election. To make matters worst, the comments from the leaders were less than enlightening. Often people felt so hurt by them that they reacted by ridiculing the speakers. Throughout our independence, never have our leadership been found so wanting, so wishy washy in tackling problems and in siding with the wrong side, not on the side of the people. The leaders may think that they were speaking from a legalistic or factual point of view and expected the people to see the logic and wisdom of their words. Would the people be so rational and so sheepish, and accept the profound wisdom, and move on? Apparently the people are dumbfounded.

Time for a minority PM

There were many discussions about the eventuality of a minority PM in govt. This is a rather sensitive issue that is close to the hearts of the minorities. It is only a natural human instinct that they want to see their own kind becoming successful, rising to the peak of any profession. And as the number of the minorities grows in strength, the voice will be louder. The rooting for a minority PM should not be seen as a racial thing. It is just their aspiration. But if the majority takes a stand that the PM must be from the majority, then it may be seen from a different light, maybe a racist thing. So the majority should not talk too much about such an issue and let the minorities air their 'grievances', a bit of letting off the steam. From my observation of events, it would not be long before a minority PM be elected by popular vote. We have excellent minority ministers in the like of Tharman, Vivian and Shanmugam. They stand a head above the others in terms of leadership quality, charisma and eloquence. And professionally they are the cream of their profession. All they need is to turn on their offensive charm. And knowing the shallowness of the majority politicians in politics, though they all believe that they are shrewd and inborn politicians, they will soon vote for a minority PM. As far as politiking is concerned, the majority is at best naive or plainly inadequate. Look at all the interest groups and associations and it is no surprise that the one that is calling the shot is often from the minority. Anyone from the majority that assumes the position of chairman or president is likely to be a pet of the real power holder. Another point in favour of the minority is that the majority are also believers in meritocracy. And when they see a better candidate than themselves, they will be the first to give the candidate their full support. My advice to the minorities is to be impatient. A minority PM is a high probability. And they may get a bonus, with a minority President and a minority PM at the same time. They need not wait for long.

A wise and prudent move

There are many people demanding that Temasek and GIC should be more transparent and to reveal how much they really have in their portfolios. We have heard of $200b or thereabout. Some speculated that it could be more. Temasek and GIC’s stand not to disclose what are in their coffers should be appreciated. The world is infested with ruthless and greedy predators and they are constantly eyeing any organisation that has money. When they have winds of that, soon they will make their way in with their brilliant proposals only to con these organisations of their hoards. To these financial experts, it is as easy as ABC. We have seen this happening a bit too often. The moral of the story is not to let people know that you have money. They will come and help themselves with it. And the $200m per annum calibre thieves from Wall Street are not easy to parry off especially when your treasures are guarded by $20m calibre material. No fight. Alternatively we may want to employ the $200m type to prey on other smaller funds managed by lesser material. Let’s be prudent and not to tell anyone about how much we have in our savings

Equal misery?

I just read Gerald Giam's article on axing staff by companies to boost profitability. Down sizing is always a last step in a company's list of options to cut cost as its impact on the affected employees is more than just losing a job. It is something that responsible management should think very carefully before doing. Maybe the trade unions should take a stand on this issue. Companies that are still making profits, though lower, should not be allowed to axe staff. Such a measure can only be supported by the unions when the company is going into the red. A few years of lower profits or even no profit is not something that is intolerable. And just a play on numbers. If companies are paying 12 mths or more bonuses, by halving the bonus payout is equivalent to cutting the staff by a quarter. And to cut a 10% workforce, the company could simply reduce the bonuses by 20 or 30%. No need for desperate measures like retrenchment. Companies have a social obligation to their employees and to society to avoid such drastic and destructive measures. Do companies resort to retrenchment to protect their big bonuses?

Uncle Ho to the rescue

Marina Sands in trouble? Fear Not. Vegas, Sands or whatever, are not the only casino operators available. If Sands could not complete the job, there is Genting waiting in the wing. And if two Gentings are too much to stomach, we can always invite Uncle Ho from Macao to pay us a visit. I can't remember why he was not allowed to bid for the Marina Sands then. Maybe he was viewed as another SWF, not welcomed. But now that SWF are welcomed the world over with open arms, being courted even by the US and EU, it would not be too much trouble to tell Uncle Ho that he is welcomed to take over from Sands. There will be many suitors waiting in the queue in case Marina Sands throw in the towel. And it could be had for a song. What a great opportunity! Temasek should seriously consider running it on its own, 100% Singapore owned.