Some are cheering that the IDF was defeated and Nethanyahu had to beg for a ceasefire. The Lebanese are cheering that at least for the moment, the war is over. Some even think they have defeated the Israelis invasion. Is that so? Who is the winner and who is the loser?
Why was Lebanon involved in the conflict and ended with the Israeli invasion? The Lebanon launched rocket attacks across the border in support of the Palestinian cause, to try to stop the Genocide in Gaza. With the ceasefire, the Lebanese cannot send rockets across the border into Israel anymore.
Who is the loser? The poor Palestinians, now losing one of their supporters to put pressure on the Israelis. The winner of course is the Israelis, with their northern border now safe and secure and their illegal occupation of Palestinian land can continue, can send more illegal settlers to occupy the Palestinian land in the north.
What about the Lebanese? They can have peace and their people returned to their homes, mostly destroyed and tens of thousands killed. A large part of southern Lebanon is now in ruins, and many Lebanese had been displaced or became refugees in Syria or in Turkey. The war was all for nothing but they ended paying a high price in lives and properties destroyed. And they even forgot why they were involved in this war in the first place. Are they still on the side of the Palestinians and want to stop the Genocide?
Israel is the biggest winner. They launched the attack on Lebanon to stop them from supporting the Palestinians and from attacking Israel with rockets, and they succeeded. Israel stopped the Lebanese without paying anything in return.
This is in a way like how the Americans deal with the Chinese. When the Americans want to negotiate with the Chinese to get items A, B, and C, they would expect the Chinese to ask for 3 items in return, a fair exchange. So, before meeting the Chinese, the Americans would accuse, sanction, or raise tariff etc etc as bargaining chips. At the negotiating table, they demanded A, B, and C in return for whatever they accused, sanctioned or tariffs they raised before the trip. And if China were to accept the dropping of the accusation, removed sanction or tariffs in return for giving A, B, C, to the Americans, in reality, the Americans did not give up anything and got A, B, and C for nothing. And the Chinese gave but did not get anything in return.
This tactic had been used by the Americans for a long time. Not sure if the Chinese have learnt anything or get wiser from it. We are seeing the same formula being in play in the Lebanese Israel Ceasefire. The Israelis got peace and the Lebanese to stop attacking them in the North, without acceding anything. And the Lebanese thought they won and happily accepting the Ceasefire and celebrating.
Poor Palestinians ended the real loser. Lebanon, the loser that did not know they lost, and Israel quietly walked away, not saying anything about winning the war.
Stupidity has no cure.
1 comment:
The ceasefire will not hold. The ploy was rightly to stop Hezbollah from launching rockets into Israel. Hamas is not as strong as Hezbollah militarily and does not have that many rockets to launch against Israel after a year of fighting.
The other reason is that the ceasefire will give the USA some breathing space to produce more weapons to supply to Israel for more offensive action.
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