2022 Prediction (1) - Possible (Humongous) Miscalculation in Foreign Policies
In international politics, arguably there is no global jurisprudence like in nation states where there is existence of some form of national governance to maintain and enforce law and order to a large extent within certain geographical boundaries (up to the point where it breaks down; anarchy &/ or chaos ensue till another legitimate regime with the embracing support of the mass populace emerges, reunites the various segments of the society and imposes a new law and order, bringing about peace and resumption of development).
On the global front, history is littered with many instances where might is right in international politics and the law of jungle precedes at some point where brutish power finds laws in no other form than in its own might and on its own basis to enact domination over or violence on others not unlike the lions being the predators in the jungle and feeding on its preys whenever the needs arise with no necessity for any justification whatsoever.
At best, world order since the early 20th century consists of some “loose or weak form” of international institutions such as the League of Nations formed after World War One which was replaced by the United Nations after World War Two. The many cases of international armed conflicts since the 1930s despite the existence of “supranational institutions” and with losses far outweighing the benefits (if any) certainly do not obfuscate the realities of international politics which in many ways are corollaries of political actions taken and foreign policies conducted.
In the words of Abraham Lincoln:
“I do the very best I know how, the very best I can, and I mean to keep doing so until the end. If the end brings me out all right, what is said against me won't amount to anything. If the end brings me out wrong, ten angels swearing I was right would make no difference.”
Rational foreign policies may be seen in the light of a photograph and a painting. The photograph shows everything the naked eyes can see; the painting cannot but attempts to show what is not visible to the naked eyes: elements that encompasses biases, intellectual weaknesses, personal preferences … deviations that could misdirect foreign policies from rationality.
Leo 81
4 comments:
Leo 81,
Good insight and observation. Looking forward to your next 19 predictions.
A-non-y-mouse.
👍
IMO, "Prepare, don't predict" is a much more proactive strategy.
The world is volatile, skewed to the downside. Idiots and corrupt people are in positions of "authority".
That's why preparation on the individual level is key. Protect yourself, your kin and your values. Take small losses and accept "sunken costs" like "insurance"---whatever form they might be.
At the end of the day "luck' (aka probability/ uncertainty / randomness) has the final say. The world is a complex system comprising of many complex systems integrated with each other.
It is chaotic and fractal in nature. It sends out "signals" which fool all of us, especially those in power who make and implement POLICY...which affects everyone. Add to that all the NOISE which comes from just humans bloviating.
Good Luck (i.e. may probability work in your favour)
Matilah,
Regarding the point about your proactive preparation strategy, some salient/ pertinent questions for the potential benefits of MSN readers ...
What are your resources you would recommend for your preparation strategy?
And what to prepare for and how?
Thank you
Cheers
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