Biden is begging for a meeting with Xi, even a virtual meeting would be good enough for him. He needs the publicity and to show to the Americans that he is worthy enough to have a meeting with Xi. Without this meeting his legitimacy as a world leader is at stake.
What is unacceptable is the agenda that the American media and the White House staff have been making publicly, that Biden would be talking to Xi about human rights in Xinjiang, Hong Kong and on issues of Taiwan and South China Sea. These are China's domestic affairs and China must not allow the Americans to mess around with. China must not, I repeat, must not allow any country that wants to meet up with Chinese leaders to talk about such issues. There shall be no meeting as it would be a waste of time talking about unproductive issues and meddling with China's domestic affairs.
China must set the agenda for any meetings with foreign leaders especially the Americans and the West. China's domestic affairs must not be in the agenda or else no meeting. China must be very firm in these areas as the other side did not mean any good. Their intention is mischievous and unfriendly and should not be entertained. They can go and fly kite
China must make these issues taboo, red lines not to be crossed. Send the visitors packing, show them the door for being rude and interfering in China's domestic affairs. China must make this as the first pass to a meeting with Chinese leaders. When such issues are raised, meaning very unfriendly act, China must walk out of the meeting, any meeting. No need to waste time talking to gangsters and hooligans out to create mischief. Period.
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China will continue its zero-Covid policy even at risk of burdening corporates
TWENTY months since closing its borders to foreigners in late-March last year, and with no end to its zero-Covid policy in sight, China's economy is chugging along but economists warn Beijing risks longer-term scarring and burdening corporates, which are already showing weakening credit trends.
Throughout the pandemic, China has employed lockdowns, quarantines and compulsory testing for the virus. Late October, it offered booster shots as new outbreaks of the highly transmissible Delta variant threaten its zero-Covid tolerance. It started inoculating children as young as three, making it one of the very few countries in the world to do so. As of Nov 10, China has administered 2 shots of the Covid-19 vaccine to more than 1 billion people, covering 75 per cent of its population. But even as the rest of the world is mulling reopening their air and land borders, China remains steadfast in its commitment to zero Covid. While production output and retail sales performed better than expected in October, economists are not changing their outlook for China.
"Given the upcoming Beijing Winter Olympics (starting February 4) and the 20th Party Congress (October-November) next year, we expect the Chinese government to continue its "zero-Covid" policy despite a high vaccination rate and medical improvements," noted Goldman Sachs economists.
"Chances are high that 2022 could be a repeat of 2021 with multiple rounds of local outbreaks and restrictions on transportation and entertainment activities, dragging down household consumption," they said.
Chinese policymakers are more likely to favour economic resilience than speed when it comes to growth, and with President Xi Jinping, 68, looking on track to securing a third 5-year term as the Communist Party's general secretary, the leadership seems to be taking an even longer-term view on development than before.
"With this backdrop, we believe the Chinese economy is settling into a new regime where policymakers accept slower growth in the near term for a more resilient economy in the long run," the Goldman Sachs economists said.
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Other analysts also noted that in 2018, Xi had eliminated a term limit on the presidency, opening the way for him to lead China indefinitely.
Jeffrey Halley, senior market analyst of Asia Pacific at OANDA, highlighted risks to China's zero-Covid tolerance.
"Its Covid-zero policy means that if cases in the current outbreak spread, to say port cities, mass closures could result if its previous go-to strategy is anything to go by. That would have a knock-on disruption that would be felt across the globe.
"The state grid operator has already said electricity supply and demand are finely balanced into the winter months recently, and a colder-than-usual winter will definitely bring those stresses to the front of investor thinking again."
Economists at S&P Global Ratings said China's zero-Covid tolerance may further strain corporates if outbreaks continue to bring about mobility restrictions and broad disruptions.
"Higher leverage, weaker cash flows, tighter liquidity, and volatile financing conditions are biting. And all this is occurring amid unprecedented distress events and regulatory actions," they said, adding that China's stance may exacerbate these stresses and push rating momentum further into the negative.
"We anticipate the government will continue its push against excessive leverage and market abuse. Unlike last year, we do not expect a large stimulus to boost corporates over the near term. As a result, corporate risks will remain elevated as the pandemic persists," they noted.
However, there is merit to China's stringent Covid stance and policies, said Louis Kuijs, head of Asia economics at Oxford Economics, noting that fewer people have died from Covid-19 in China compared to other countries. But a country's decision to change its Covid stance depends on respective circumstances.
Kuijs explained: "Some people argue that the Chinese vaccines are less effective than some of the other ones used internationally and that that makes it harder for China to rely on high vaccination levels as a basis to move to a containment strategy. But with the rest of the world having decided on a "containment" strategy, China's stance has become problematic and it will have to choose. If it really wants to continue with its zero-tolerance approach, it would have to permanently cut itself off from the rest of the world, which seems unsustainable.
"It could at some point move in that direction if it wants to, and start to prepare the public for such a move. If domestically-produced vaccines don't seem sufficiently effective, it could in principle just import more effective ones. Unfortunately, politics seem to be a stumbling block to the move away from the current, onerous policies," Kuijs said.
He believes the economic cost for China is not huge given that it is a big country, and remains connected to the rest of the world with today's telecommunication and Internet infrastructure.
"Even for the rest of the world, the purely economic impact is not the biggest issue. I worry more about how a prolonged period with very little international interaction - both at the level of politicians and policymakers as well as in terms of people-to-people contact - tends to reduce trust, understanding and sympathy at an already complicated juncture in terms of international relations. This is clearly unhelpful in terms of the relationship between China and many other countries," Kuijs said.
This year has been a roller-coaster for the Chinese economy and markets, and uncertainties associated with the 2022 outlook are "particularly significant", depending on Covid evolution, property slowdown, energy constraints, and most crucially, the government's policy response, Goldman Sachs economists said.
They warned: "A bottom-up perspective points to a less benign picture. With consumption recovery still hindered by the "zero-Covid" policy, investment dragged by property market deleveraging, and exports unlikely to repeat this year's stellar performance, even 5 per cent growth seems difficult to achieve without notable policy easing."
The economists expect 2022 growth to be 4.8 per cent, below consensus expectations of 5.5 per cent.
"Although we remain more optimistic about Chinese exports and current account surplus than market consensus, net exports are likely to turn from a significant tailwind in 2021 to a small headwind in 2022."
Due to China's zero-Covid stance, consumption recovery may continue its "two steps forward, one step back" pattern. Investment growth should slow markedly in 2022 on continued property market deleveraging. The slowdown in property investment is unlikely to be fully offset by infrastructure investment as policymakers also try to rein in local government shadow borrowing and hidden debt in the broader deleveraging and de-risking efforts.
"New infra" and "green capex", although having the most potential to grow in the coming years, are simply too small at this stage to fill the void left by slowing property investment, the Goldman Sachs economists said.
1. China can do a lot of businesses, export/import without opening up like crazy irresponsible govts.
2. China does not need tourists or tourist dollars and compromise the health and well beings of its people.
3. Zero Covid and Living with Covid are two opposing theories. Only time will tell who will come up better. China chooses to protect its people, the other camp chooses to live with the risk of higher infection and more deaths.
4. The lepers would not mine if everyone else is infected and becomes lepers. Now the lepers are trying to smear the healthy as being bad. They want them to join the lepers' camp.
1. Never trust the economists. They are simply armchair theorists. They are skilled in double-talks. They have to be. They have trained themselves to speak "heads I win, tails you lose", either side turns up, they are right.
2. Goldman Sachs, or Gold Man Sucks, is like the Bloombergs and Reuters. They are all Anti-China and Smearing China Propaganda War Machines of the Evil USA Empire and Evil UK. So, never trust what these Propaganda News Outlets write.
3. If you are discerning enough and sharp enough, you read in between the lines. And you will find there there are contradictions and questionable assumptions taken as facts to substantiate their points.
The surge in Covid infections in the West, mostly using the controversial and questionable mRNA vaccines is all for everyone to see. The more they vaccinate, the worse is the infection rate. Many are still bravely living in the white men's lie that mRNA is the best when the numbers on the ground are saying otherwise.
Ignorance is bliss. Intentional ignorance is gold.
Xi is assured of another term in office and he has no reason to give in to Joe Biden on any quarters. That is for sure.
Joe Biden on the other hand is not assured of another term. If he tries to extract any advantage from Xi in order to shore up his home support in mid term, he is mistaken.
More than two years into the trade war and China has not exerted any pressure on the USA's side to reduce tariffs on Chinese goods. The USA consumers are now suffering the effects of the trade war, as the tariffs are not punishing China but punishing their own citizens instead with inflation taking it's toll. Who can tolerate the longer this goes on is not difficult to predict.
Realistically, those job creations touted by Trump were basically low wage jobs like restaurant helpers and fast food outlet personnel, that pay very low wages, and most workers therefore had to take on two, even three jobs to pay for their rental and food. It sounds great to the ears, but two to three jobs created for one worker, is what more jobs created nation wide really means. Great creativity and productivity, but just pulling wool over unsuspecting eyes.
It is quantity not quality jobs that were created. Do not be fooled by Trump, as big companies that pay reasonable wages are always moving and looking for cheaper areas with lower labour cost, both in and outside the USA to set up their business.
With more than 50 million USA citizens living below the poverty line, it will be wiser for Joe Biden and the USA to concentrate on solving the USA's own internal problems rather than throwing all that money on wars and ego boosting activities, that is raking in less and less benefits. How much did the USA throw away in Afghanistan without achieving anything concrete?
Two superpowers trying to outdo each other is easy with one winner and one loser, but with three superpowers now competing, with two against one, the writing is on the wall. It is no more a one sided contention by any means.
The CECA Indians can put all of them inside their pockets. See how mesmerised they are talking to a CECA Indian. Every word coming out from a CECA Indian is like word from God.
They must be praying to have more CECA Indians here to do the jobs for them, pay them a bit more while they don't have to work but continue to count their millions.
With India in the VTL scheme, more CECA Indians are coming our way and more delivery jobs and grad driver jobs for our PMETs. And more new citizens to buy more properties. Property prices sure to shoot to the sky.
The silver lining, grab drivers and delivery boys would have a lot of jobs driving the new citizens around and sending food to their doorsteps. Got tips some more.
The world knows better than to trust the United Snakes of America. China should know having been at the receiving end of trade wars, technology sabotage, sanctions and subterfuge.
They talk nicely about one thing but do the exact opposite. They care so much about human rights in Xinjiang, Myanmar, Afghanistan, but what have their sanctions done all round the world. People are suffering from all those sanctions and they tell the world it is a good thing that sanctions are working and people are suffering. What vile, evil and vicious hypocrites~
These savage USA Anglo-Saxon barbarians can carry out wanton sanctions on other countries because of their illicit control of the Petro-Dollar and its mighty military with over 800 military bases around the world threatening every country into submission to its dictates and thus to secure and maintain its insidious world hegemony.
However, China and Russia will soon rout the Petro-dollar and break the evil empire's hegemony worldwide,
Political observer
Lim Wei Seng
Welcome Wei Seng to the blog.
Good to have more bloggers here blogging freely.
Cheers.
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