Counting the 24 to go

Hsien Loong in his press interview confirmed that 24 new candidates would be introduced in the next GE, which also means that 24 of the current batch in Parliament would have to quit. Actually not, only 17 would be quitting if we count the 7 seats taken up by the WP.  Again it may not be 17 if the Gov thinks this country is too big and needs another few more MPs in Parliament. This is still an unknown variable.

Assuming that the Parliament remains at 87 seats then we can count on 17 PAP incumbents to vacate their seats and stand down in the next GE. Now who would be the lucky ones that could step down on a winning card, and not stepping down because they lost in a GE? Let me make a wild guess starting from the slate of ministers. If membership to the CEC is an indication, those ministers that were not in could be likely candidates to miss the boat when it leaves the port.

Of the 18 ministers, only 4 were not in the CEC, Lim Hng Khiang, Vivian, Lui Tuck Yew, Grace Fu, and Iswaran.  Lim Hng Khiang looks like a very tired minister after having been in office for more than 20 years. Vivian and Lui have been in the hot seats and affected by many bad publicities. These 3 could very well be stepping down. Iswaran is new and being out of the CEC is quite normal. On the other hand some ministers in the CEC may also offer to step down for health or personal reasons. Boon Wan and Swee Say have openly talked about it. So, all in we can count on a max of 3+2 ministers to leave politics.

This leaves 12 MPs to be let go. And again, those in the CEC are likely to be favoured MPs and can safely be counted to be in.  Assuming that the oldies would be the first on the list to retire, this would count MPs like Charles Chong, Arthur Fong, Cedric Foo, Chok Tong, Inderjit, LKY, Teo Ho Pin, Lily Neo and the ex ministers Wong Kan Seng, Mah Bow Tan and Raymond Lim, making a group of 11.

And we have a balance of 1 left to be dropped. Who is the possible candidate? Who is the likely one to make up the last of the 17? Anyone offering to step down for personal reasons? Anyone involved in controversies and bad publicity? Baey Yam Keng and Seng Han Thong have been heard to be considering retirement. That would leave the rest safe to stay on for another term.

I think the above list is likely to be the candidates that would be laid off in the next GE. Some may think of a few newer candidates that social media were unhappy with would likely to go, but I think they will be safe as there are already too many candidates that are due to quit politics for the above considerations. Intan would be safe, Tin Pei Ling, Lee Bee Wah, Irene Ng, Alvin Yeo, Lim Wee Kiat, and whoever that drew fierce criticisms by the social media would also be safe.

This is just my guess and I swear that I am likely to be wrong in 50% of these guesses. The above considerations do not take into account the Aljunied factor that may need a few of the existing MPs or Ministers to be specially retained just to take back the GRC or to spare the agony for being chosen to fight there.