With Xi Jinping facing challenges on multiple fronts, can China’s helmsman navigate through stormy seas?
When President Xi Jinping gave his speech before kicking off his norm-breaking third term in March, he vowed to lead China through a “turbulent decade” and to sail the country through “dangerous storms” ahead.
But more than five months in, having been given unanimous support by the national legislature after the presidential term limit was scrapped to extend his unprecedented tenure, the country is in deeper unchartered waters.
On the international front, China has been engaged in an all-encompassing competition with the United States in areas from trade and tech to security.
This article was first published on SCMP and reported in the main media, CNA, in Singapore.
The above is the introductory paragraphs of a very long article appearing in SCMP on 28 August 23 saying how Xi Jinping is faced with tons of problems at home and abroad. No one dared to put his name to the article, so presumably it is an editorial piece of SCMP. From the language used, and the selective issues raised, the wide areas covered, it is very clear where the article came from and who were behind this mischievous article. There is no point spending time reading what were expected from this kind of twisted and fabricated lies.
All one can say is that the US is such a nice and peaceful place and its economy is smooth sailing, not a single problem, no serious problem worth mentioning. And Biden is such a happy president, carefree, with nothing to worry about. The Ukraine War would soon be won. All the sanctions were to destroy America's enemies for sure. The American dollar, petrol dollar, are so well received in spite of the daily printing in the billions or trillions, no problem at all. And unemployment, drug problems, shooting and deaths, all things of the past. And inflation, where got inflation? BRICS challenging American hegemony, the Arab world and the Africans are turning against the evil Americans, no, not true? Americans are so well loved by the people of the world despite being the number one terrorist state and massacring millions of people all over the world?
How would Biden know what is happening when he does not even know what he had for breakfast? The American Empire is all so fine. America and the American economy are like a bed of roses. Only China and Xi have problems. The America and Biden are having a party everyday. There is nothing for the Americans to worry about? American dollar going to become toilet papers? No such thing. All is fine for America and the American gangsters. They still have a lot of toilet paper money to fight wars, start wars, agitate for wars, behaving like gangsters and international terrorists all over the world.
What do you think?
PS. When would China close down this American mouth piece or get rid of the traitors operating in its own soil, in Hong Kong? They are just like the European judges that were running the Hong Kong judiciary system. The traitors must be gotten rid of fast to protect China's sovereignty and independence.
7 comments:
SCMP is another Channel News America!
It is fine to read such news, as it implied the opposite is truth..only daft sinkies/banana would take it with line/sink/hook. This news outlet are just like our highly "trustful" papies mouthpiece sph.
SCMP and our CNA both have the same agenda. Glorifying the West and putting down China and the rest of the Global South except the Sun explorer. Nothing can be done about CNA but surely China should have the guts to shut the SCMP down and put all those responsibly for disinformation under arrest and deportation if foreigners. Have some balls China. Follow the example of Burkina Faso, Mali and Niger. Kick them all out without further ado.
Agree. Whether China shuts SCMP down or not, they are going to attack China. So what is the problem? Just shut it down. Or if not, get rid of the anti China elements in the SCMP. Hong Kong is Chinese territory, not a British concession.
China wants to let the provocateurs having the right for 'freedom of navigation' to throw shit at China? China must stop being silly. The snakes would always be snakes and would not change. So are the devils.
Political Risks in Asia: Lull In Geopolitical Competition Implies Softening of Risks
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
• The likelihood of serious geopolitical disruptions has been reduced as the US-China relationship is better managed and domestic political conditions in Asia stabilize.
• While antagonistic non-military measures by Washington and Beijing may continue, both countries will avoid rocking the boat. The odds of a substantial escalation are thus low.
• Other regional flashpoints such as Taiwan, the Sino-Indian border, and the South China Sea may see episodic confrontations but these will probably be contained.
DETAIL Two themes dominate our analysis of regional political risks. First, the likelihood of a serious political disruption in the broad Asian region has subsided for now, although there are still potential flashpoints that bear watching. The guardrails being put in place by the US and China should keep the contestation between the two big powers limited, for now, to the trade, technology, investment, cyberwar and diplomatic arenas, with reduced risks of a military confrontation. At the pan-Asian level, it is still the Korean peninsula where a shock could emerge.
Second, the risk of country-level political convulsions has also diminished in recent months. Several elections and political transitions that are approaching in places such as India and Indonesia could create episodic stresses but are unlikely to be destabilising.
US-China frictions will generate heat but not a crisis
After a phase of heated rhetoric and limited diplomatic engagement, the relationship between the US and China is settling into a new, less risky equilibrium. This equilibrium should last so long as the framework being created to limit dangers is maintained. And that in turn is likely as both sides realise that extreme disengagement is impractical and an escalation of tensions would be damaging to their own interests.
Political leaders in both the US and China are committed to establishing arrangements to prevent their contestation from turning into a conflict that neither side wants. High-level official exchanges have resumed and have continued even in the face of potential distractions. For example, the US proceeded with senior officials’ visits despite allegations that Chinese intelligence was using Cuba as a base to target the US. Neither did the Chinese side allow President Biden’s criticism of President Xi Jinping as a “dictator” to obstruct continued engagements with the US. The visit by US Secretary of State Blinken to Beijing was followed by similar visits by Treasury Secretary Yellen and climate czar Kerry, with Commerce Secretary Raimundo now in Beijing for talks. A meeting between Xi and Biden at the APEC summit later this year is now possible.
This progress will not prevent further antagonistic non-military measures by each power against the other – but even here, both sides are realising that there are limits to how far they can go without hurting their own interests. The Biden administration has imposed restrictions on exports of technology to China and is limiting the flow of American funding to Chinese companies in sensitive sectors. But in many cases, these stipulations have been watered down from what was originally planned, usually because of a strong pushback from the business sector or a realisation that pressing too hard would be too disruptive given how closely integrated their two economies had become.
The US has also strengthened alliances and created new military and intelligence arrangements that are clearly aimed at China. For its part, China has been mobilising its friends to create groupings that help it counter the US. The latest example was China’s success in persuading leaders of the BRICS nations to invite new members to expand their fledgling organisation, including Iran which is hostile to the US. This is a clear attempt at creating a more substantial counter-balance to the US-dominated G7 grouping.
We see this new equilibrium continuing for an extended period because it suits both countries, particularly China. More than the US, China needs a period of calm to allow it to recalibrate its strategy after several setbacks:
• The Ukraine war crystallised a growing European wariness of China. The Europeans are now more aligned with American efforts to constrain China such as limits on technology transfer. Countries such as Germany are now explicitly identifying China as a security challenge despite their strong economic linkages to China.
• Japan and South Korea have resolved their disputes sufficiently to join the US in an enhanced security arrangement where China is implicitly the target. China’s hopes of splitting South Korea away from joint security cooperation with the US and Japan against China have been dashed.
• After a period when it moved away from the US and closer to China, the Philippines is now firmly back in the American fold. The failure of the previous President Duterte’s shift to China has strengthened the consensus in the Philippines in favour of continued alliance with the US.
• India has become more hostile towards China after the June 2020 clashes between the two nations along their disputed border. It has buttressed defence ties with the US and its allies. India is also working more closely with countries such as Vietnam which also have disputes with China. Although Indian Prime Minister Modi met President Xi last week for their first talks in three years, little substance emerged from those talks apart from a vague instruction to their underlings to expedite an agreement on their border dispute.
In all these cases, countries that might have contemplated a more balanced relationship between the US and China chose to move closer to the US after China’s aggressive stance towards them alienated those countries.
Another reason for China to avoid escalating tensions with the US is its domestic challenges. China’s economy is at its most parlous state in more than twenty years – economic growth is faltering, financial stresses are worsening due to high debt levels, key sectors such as real estate are contracting and youth unemployment is at a record high. The last thing China needs now is a crisis in relations with the West which could aggravate its economic troubles.
It will take time to stabilise the Chinese economy. During this time, Beijing must realise that it needs external cooperation. China is keen to attract foreign direct investment, which has plunged to the lowest levels in years, so it needs to persuade global corporations that the geo-political tensions that they fear can be managed. Policymakers are also concerned about the weakening Chinese Yuan, to bolster which they may need cooperation from western financial institutions.
Agree.
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