5/17/2023

EU a victim of American game plan on weaponising oil

The EU is said to be investing in upping their energy production itself, and much has been made of the effort, since the sanctions on Russian energy took effect over the Ukraine War, resulting in huge negative implications for their industries and domestic needs. How much more oil and gas can they produce is the question, and will it be enough for the EU as a whole? And who, out of the 27 EU member countries, takes most of the benefit eventually is another problem to be solved, as they are all energy starved for now. Not all EU countries are equal and treated equally.
Investing resources into oil production is a huge undertaking and even USA oil giants are reluctant and hesitant in taking up the challenge to expand production, despite the US Government's coercion (truth or fallacy), and despite the shortage, as it inevitably means eventually cutting into their own bottomline, if supply overtakes demand, due to over production, with excess extraction. Would they be stupid enough to want to cut their noses to spite their faces? Added to that uncertainty of supply and demand, is the massive investments involved that big oil does not take lightly.

Moreover, with the world moving towards renewables, with countries like China now reported to be phasing out vehicles running on fossil fuel completely, besides extracting more clean energy by building more dams, solar farms, wind energy farms, what does the future hold for fossil fuel? Even Saudi Arabia is moving away from fossil fuel and into renewables, which is something we never would expect for an oil rich kingdom. For a country with so much oil in reserves, why are they doing that? And Saudi Arabia is not the only Middle East oil rich country doing that. Some are already, years ago, investing in infrastructures for tourism as well, though not successfully as it turned out.

Oil and gas reserves for any country can only last longer with less extraction, and is not inexhaustible. Countries wise enough, like China, will now turn to finding alternatives and not just sit idle and wait for this to happen, and are definitely not waiting to be held hostage when the shit hits the fan, like semiconductors. The EU for example, had been able to build up its industrial base by relying on cheap Russian energy and now Russia has found out its 'Achilles Heel'. China is not waiting to be stuck in the same predicament, although Russia is an important reliable partner for now.

The USA had been preserving its massive oil reserves for a strategic purpose, and had been importing a large proportion of its energy needs from other countries instead of upping production itself, thereby inducing other countries to exhaust their reserves first. What is on their agenda, can be said to be nothing good.

China does not want to end up like the EU, and as usual, China plans 20 to 30 years ahead, just like what Yanis Varoufakis said about its investments in Africa. They are long term investors, with a 20 to 30 years timeline. For a civilisation of 5,000 years, what is a couple of decades to them? As in everything they need, they source for it years before building up their facilities to thrive on such procurement. Their needs for rare earth, EV vehicles, batteries to run them, and all basic raw materials for production of steel, solar panels etc were all sourced decades ago, not yesterday. Their only short coming was to rely too much on Chip Manufacturers of the USA, Japan, South Korea and the West. China is making the correction of this strategic mistake a national priority.

Was there ever a time when the USA might be considering weaponising energy to hold the world hostage, just like the US$ hegemony, knowing that at one stage the USA totally controls their Middle East oil allies and were dictating the oil trade? Too bad, the migration towards clean energy is changing the eventual hope to weaponise oil and gas to control the world is being made ineffective. Now they think weaponising semiconductor chips will do China in. Not so fast!

Anonymous

2 comments:

Anonymous said...

Just imaging what it would mean for the world if the USA had succeeded in weaponising oil in tandem with weaponising the US$. China, with its huge industrial base would be totally paralysed or even wiped out.

The USA had already been putting in place a plan to cripple trade, and thus oil movements as well, by blockading the Straits of Malacca and Suez Canal in a conflict with China. Their target is preventing China from getting Middle East oil. Now, China has long anticipated such a move and building the BRI was a strategic counter.

Now, with Russia supplying much of China's much needed energy, and eventually, if successfully managed, Middle Eastern oil will be able to move through pipelines across Central Asia, via Iran, Afghanistan and probably Tajikistan using ports in Iran now being developed.

Thankfully, the Middle East oil producers and OPEC+ are now out of the control of the USA, all thanks to the sanctions on Russia and the backstabbing by the Saudis against Biden's treatment of MBS, calling him a Pariah. That was a hard pill to swallow for MBS.

Anonymous said...

Well, isn't that a blessing for the rest of the world being the enemy of the USA? Henry Kissinger was spot on, and countries are now taking him really seriously.