Li Keqiang’s speech – What to make out of it?

Premier Li Keqiang has delivered his much awaited and most watched speech at the 12^th National People’s Congress and China watchers are busily trying to dissect every bit of his speech to understand what he was saying and where is China heading. The keynote address by the Prime Minister of China has gained stature internationally and would be closely watched by leaders of nations around the world wanting to understand China and its policies. Any analyst hoping and expecting something dramatic and earth shaking pronouncement in this speech is likely to be disappointed. Li Keqiang’s speech is best described by a few words, consolidation, stability and avoiding the risk that may come from domestic and external factors.

The tempo of the speech, covering almost every aspect of the Chinese economy and touching on the life of the Chinese people, is a sign of a leadership that is comfortable with what they have achieved and what they had set out to do. It is a speech that said China is on the right course and will continue to move ahead in a steady pace with not much haste.

China has initiated many big plans and projects internally and in the international arena in the last decades, particularly in the last few years. A distinct observation that everything is going on as planned, and doing well, is their absence from being mentioned in Li Keqiang’s speech.  What were not spoken were equally important if not more important like the AIIB and One Belt One Road international projects. The American rhetoric on the South China Sea were not worthy of mention as well. The anti corruption drive too did not find a place in the speech.

The whole emphasis of Li’s speech is about consolidation of what China has been doing over the years, economic development to bring about a prosperous China and better quality of living for its people. Improving the environment, clear sky, creating jobs and lowering unemployment and agricultural reforms to improve productivity took the main stage. The economy is targeted to continue to grow at a more leisure pace of 6.5%, a departure from the years of hectic double digit growth to ensure a more stable and sustainable growth.

The overall picture is a China growing at its own terms and dictates with no great concern or the need to take high risk. There is no worrying trends and development that could trip the progress of the Chinese economy and China’s growing prosperity. 

There are areas of concern but nothing unmanageable. Li Keqiang did raise the issue of independence movements in Hong Kong and Taiwan, and China’s sovereignty in the South China Sea. His message was simple, without being confrontational to unsettle the critics and doomsayers, that China would firmly and resolutely protect the One China policy, removing any doubts on what China would do when the One China policy and Chinese sovereignty are challenged.

Li Keqiang did not respond directly to the provocative rhetoric from the Americans and in a way keep the South China Sea on an even keel. The modest increase in the Chinese defence budget of 7% is also another statement that says threats to China’s national security would be taken seriously but not something the Chinese leader is unduly worried about. China is not in a hurry to over indulge in military spending or in an arms race with the USA to compete for military dominance and superiority. 

China has chosen the path of economic development, to continue to grow and develop in a measured and predictable manner to improve the lives of the Chinese people. Military adventure and supremacy are not China's cup of tea.

In summary, Li Keqiang's speech is all about economic development, prosperity and the well being of the Chinese people and for China to continue to grow as a sovereign nation.

PS. Posted this in China Daily