Trump is a fan of fossil fuel extraction. He even
encouraged investments in fracking to extract more oil during his first
term. To support his ideal of more fossil fuel extraction, Trump even
claims that climate change issues are a farce. If Trump wins in
November, ICE vehicle manufacturers in USA and Europe will be given a
new short lease of life and EVs will not be allowed to proliferate in
the USA and Europe.
But then, how are ICE vehicles manufactured
in USA and Europe going to sell their vehicles outside of USA and
Europe? Elsewhere around the world, climate change issues are
encouraging countries to promote the use of EVs, instead of expensive
polluting ICE vehicles. China is getting rid of ICE vehicles with
registration for EVs encouraged and ICE vehicles not favored by Chinese
citizens. EVs sold in South America, Africa, Middle East and ASEAN will
be much cheaper than ICE vehicles without all the tariffs factored in.
How are those vehicles from USA and Europe going to compete in markets
outside the country? Either ICE vehicles manufacturers move with the
tide or face imminent decline. The decline will be either fast or
gradual. Keeping EVs out of the USA will just lead to a gradual decline
and cannot be avoided. It will also stifle innovation in EV technology
and be further behind China.
It is realistically a massive
problem for the USA to encourage the migration from ICE vehicles to EVs.
There are not enough recharging stations across the country to
encourage US citizens to buy EVs. Unlike China, where charging stations
are built across the whole country, the USA has not even started on its
EV journey by building such charging facilities and it will take massive
investments to catch up. It will take years even if it tries to do it
now. By then, with EVs innovations, being introduced fast and furious,
may make such massive investments in building charging stations end up
as white elephants. Nio and Tesla are about to introduce the game
changing idea of EVs without batteries to sell at even cheaper prices,
using battery swapping technology. And the building of battery swap
stations in China are picking up steam. If such endeavor succeeds, the
novelty of charging stations may take a hit.
Anonymous
3 comments:
USA can sell their ICE to Sinkieland. The reason why we are so slow in adopting EV is because our G want to sell more Oil. The talk about achieving a green environment in a certain year are just delaying tactic. For a start, we should have already switched to EV Buses long time ago. Remember all public transport asset are funded by tax payer, so why not change it to EV all together with all terminal build with charging station. We are just a pee-sia island and we are paying millions for clown to mange it.
China is the market for vehicle makers around the world. Sinkieland is just a minnow in the eyes of China as far as EV popularity is concern.
If you talk about Indonesia, that is a big matter. With a population of more than 284 million, that is not a small market to sniff at. Sure, Indonesia is still relatively poor and developing, but it is rising in the world in terms of affluence and the market is going to grow with it just like in Africa. Moreover, EVs are much cheaper than ICE vehicles however you look at it. China is also making electric motorcycles that should catch on in countries like Indonesia, Vietnam and other Indochina countries. Not to forget about Africa.
If the war in the Middle East escalated and Iran joins the war and if Israel does attack Iran's oil installations, that is going to result in oil reaching for the sky. And that scenario is going to make EVs a no brainer adoption in many countries without oil. And who is going to laugh all the way to the bank?
Trump knows the USA is not ready for EVs. Just charging stations alone is a big big problem to overcome. Without those charging stations, EV sales will never pick up in the USA and EV makers will just bite the dust. The USA will just stagnate in EV innovation and fall further and further behind the rest of the world.
Keeping EVs out of the USA does not solve the problem. Raising tariffs to the moon will not solve the problem as well. Such measure only serves to punish USA consumers, not countries like China from producing EVs. China's EV production will not collapse because of the USA tariffs. China can sell EVs elsewhere, which the USA can do nothing about.
The real reason why China can produce EVs so cheaply is because of cheap Russian energy, abundant skilled workers and a complete supply chain existing inside the country. It has nothing to do with subsidies, a measure which the USA is doing out of proportion compared to China. If subsidies were fueling manufacturing, the USA would have overwhelmed China in its manufacturing capacity with all the billions thrown around.
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