BRICS 2024 has been touted as a success with a joint declaration and the announcement of BRICS Pay, BEICS currency and a BRICS banking system. Dedollarisation was quietly swept under the table. Expansion of BRICS with more new members was also quietly forgotten, not to be spoken, and substituted with a partnership scheme with 13 new countries that have applied to be full members, Algeria, Belarus, Bolivia, Cuba, Indonesia, Malaysia, Kazakhstan, Nigeria, Thailand, Turkey, Uganda, Uzbekistan and Vietnam.
The big quarrel and opposition by India against dedollarisation and membership expansion cannot go unnoticed. Modi came, strutted around for two days and prematurely left before the closing ceremony, to report to Biden that he had done his job, no expansion of new members. In a way Modi won against China and Russia. Putin and Xi could not do anything about it, were held at ransom by Modi and have to settle for a partnership scheme, not full membership.
In another way, Putin and Xi could be having a high 5, we done it, 13 new members despite India's opposition. One can wonder whether Putin and Xi played out Modi, or Modi was with them, and played out Biden. It is unbelieveable that BRICS could be held at ransom by a third rate power without the financial clout, without the military clout, and boldly stood in the way of its expansion and to play a bigger role in international politics and the dedollarisation process.
Not all is lost. Putin and Xi managed to squeeze in 13 new members, though called partners, but are de facto members with almost every right as a member, and only waiting for the next opportunity to be embraced as full members. BRICS internal division would have come to the open with a yes or no membership expansion crisis. BRICS cannot move ahead without admitting new members if it were to be seen as an effective organisation for the Global South. But India is strongly in full opposition to admit new members for fear of its influence in the block being diminished. India is the odd man out, the only country that is not just a friend of the Americans, but also steeply anti Muslim countries and also anti China, opposing everything that China wants to do.
To push aside India's opposition to new membership would be effectively telling the Indians to quit the bloc. For the time being, India is still needed and to tell India to go at this early stage of the game may be a big blow to BRICS unity and survival. So the compromise, no new members, but new partners, and not just a handful, but 13 in one go. Putin and Xi would like to bring in all the applicants for full membership disguised as partners, but India would not allow it.
There is now a temporary truce within BRICS, with partial admission of 13 new countries that would eventually be made full members. It is better to have them one step in than to be left outside the club. India scored a big victory, the sole objector to BRICS expansion, but had to concede to let in 13 new partners and to accept that 7 more Muslim states are among them.
The next step would be how to get rid of India, the stumbling block, from BRICS in the next summit. India is totally out of sync with BRICS and its aspiration. India is also striding on two ships, whispering to the Americans and taking orders from the Americans that are hostile to BRICS' objectives and existence.
India must go. It is a matter of when. With India inside BRICS, BRICS would be a non starter. India should find its place in G7, if the whites would want to accept a pseudo white like India to be their full member. BRICS should wish India well in joining G7 and play a more active role in the Quad to oppose China, oppose the Islamic world instead of undermining BRICS from inside.
BRICS has no other option but to evict India in the next Summit. It is a matter of when to do it. India is like a sore thumb in BRICS, with nothing of value to contribute except 1.4b poor people to add to the numbers.
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India cannot trade in its own currency, the rupee, as it is not acceptable to others. BRICS system is for the purpose of allowing members to conduct bilateral trade outside the US$ and in their own currencies in a much cheaper and faster way instead of roundabout conversion to US$ and back, not to talk about the loss on exchange in conversion. Moreover, such trade will be outside the control of the USA, if done outside the purview of the US$. De-dollarization is the prime motive of creating BRICS.
India can only trade with other countries using the US$, as the rupee is not widely accepted, and this is I think the stumbling block that cannot be resolved. Even Russia does not want to accept the Indian rupee for energy and weapon sales. India's export to Russia is not large and Russia does not want to accumulate too many rupees lying idle without being able to recycle them. Moreover, the Indian rupee has devalued much over the years.
China is different, as its trade with Russia is much bigger, with China's payments for energy and food in Yuan that could be utilized by Russia to pay back for consumer products like construction equipment, computers, EVs and smartphones, as two-way trade is expanding.
It was a big mistake for BRICS to get caught by overlooking this important issue when bringing India into the bloc.
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