In
the shadow of the protracted conflict in Ukraine, the administration of
U.S. President Joe Biden has made an inconspicuous but substantial
shift in its policy toward China.
An examination of recent trips
by several cabinet members suggests the administration is having trouble
formulating a consistent global security strategy.
It is evident
that the Biden administration decided it was necessary to diffuse the
tensions that escalated in February when the U.S. Air Force shot down an
alleged Chinese reconnaissance balloon that had traversed the
continental U.S.
It may be that Washington felt taking a low-key
diplomatic approach would help in pressing China not to cooperate with
Russia's war effort in Ukraine. But given growing signs that the war
still has a long way to run, and that it will continue to require
significant fiscal and military resources, it seems the U.S. has decided
now to seek to secure at least China's benevolent neutrality in
relation to the confrontation with Moscow.
In May, National
Security Advisor Jake Sullivan met in Vienna with Chinese Politburo
member Wang Yi, who last month returned to role of foreign minister, for
some 10 hours of "candid, in-depth, substantive and constructive
discussions," in the words of a senior administration spokesperson. In
June, Secretary of State Antony Blinken met in Beijing with Wang and
Chinese President Xi Jinping for another five hours of "candid and
constructive" talks.
The atmosphere of the Beijing talks was
captured symbolically in much-circulated photographs in which Xi is
seated at the head of a meeting table, while Blinken is seated on the
side of the table, positioned as a dutiful listener.
America's
top diplomat was compelled to go to Beijing and negotiate from a
position of weakness due to the strategic circumstances that Washington
faces. In short, the lavish military aid that Washington has provided to
Kyiv to sustain its fight against Russia has severely undermined U.S.
military preparedness.
During the Cold War, U.S. military
hegemony presupposed Washington's possession of sufficient military
prowess to simultaneously dominate the three geostrategically vital
regions of Western Europe, the Middle East and Northeast Asia. In
effect, this meant a capability for full-power projection for two
concurrent major regional conflicts while holding position in a limited
regional conflict on a third front.
Once the Cold War was over, the U.S. collected a peace dividend by
cutting its defense budget, then focusing on counterinsurgency
operations for its global war on terrorism. Across the administrations
of Bill Clinton, George W. Bush and Barack Obama, the U.S. military went
from being able to fight two and a half regional wars at a time, to
two, then one and a half, and finally only one. "America is not the
world's policeman," Obama said in 2013.
China and Russia,
Washington's great-power competitors, continued meanwhile to invest in
high-end arms. But U.S. capacity to fight a regional war has focused on
deterring and potentially defeating armed aggression by China, America's
only coequal. With less military power to deploy, the U.S. has had to
make maximum use of other tools, including diplomatic, economic and
intelligence instruments.
Now the war in Ukraine is consuming
vast amounts of U.S. military and financial resources, reflecting a
grand misordering of priorities. Most probably, it will take at least
five years to rebuild the necessary munition stocks and logistics for a
potential major regional conflict with China over Taiwan.
No
wonder the Biden administration is seeking to strike a detente with
China. The administration has to buy time by reorienting from
full-fledged confrontation to re-engagement and de-risking.
But
Washington's about-face constitutes an act of appeasement, as
underscored by the fact that Beijing has not pulled back from any of its
aggressive provocations. Instead, it has continued to launch
cyberattacks, menace Taiwan and restrict exports of strategic minerals.
To
make matters worse, the Biden administration's Middle East policy is
straying wildly. Iran's uranium enrichment is approaching the weapon's
grade level of more than 90%. This will give Israel a strong incentive
to launch a preemptive strike, as it did previously in Iraq and Syria.
In
May, Sullivan said the Biden administration would endorse Israel's
"freedom of military action." This stance risks fueling a regionwide war
that would inevitably draw in the U.S.
The U.S. badly needs to
sit back and take stock of the overall global situation. Ukraine should
not be the primary determinant of U.S. foreign and security policy. The
Biden administration should recover a sense of prudential realism and
shift more attention to Taiwan and Iran while it still has some room to
maneuver.
.Would Beijing bite the USA's desire to strike a detente with China? The
USA had been saying one thing but doing the exact opposite many a time,
and China knows perfectly well that the USA cannot be trusted and is
never to be trusted.
Once the USA gets back on its footing of
rebuilding its depleted military stockpile and improving its financial
resources after the Ukraine War, it will certainly revert to its old
stance of dictating and still expecting China to be playing second
fiddle to its interest. Those neo-Cons in the establishment will make
sure the same old anti-China stance continues to be played according to
the their playbook, whoever sits in the White House. Staying on as the
unipolar superpower is always in its mindset, and it will never be
content to live with being second or even sharing the superpower title
in a multipolar world.
For all intents and purposes, China and
Russia are perfectly serious in de-dollarisation, having sold the idea
to so many Global South countries, that going back to the old days of
further succumbing to probable sanctions under the US$ hegemony once
again, will be a great misfortune and let down to the other BRICS
countries, not to mention China losing its credibility. That is unlikely
to happen.
With Taiwan's return to China in the crosshairs of
USA/China relations, and the USA continuing to use Taiwan as a pawn to
antagonise China on and off, the issues between China and USA will be
difficult to resolve.
Anonymous