Good news, no fleeing of capital and foreign investors!

When news of Heng Swee Kiat’s collapse in a cabinet meeting hit the streets, there must be fear of a fleeing of foreign capital from the island. This rumour or line of thought has been speculated for several decades to frighten the Singaporeans, that stability of a one party, one man govt is the key to Singapore’s success. Now that the one man is no longer around, it is the composition of the one party that matters. And the composition of the one party actually is about a few men countable by the fingers in one hand. And Heng Swee Kiat is one of the fingers, touted as the future PM.

Heng Swee Kiat’s collapse may send fears to some that it is a sign that Singapore may be collapsing or the future is collapsing. So foreigners, those from the first world, would be packing their bags and businesses and running away. There is no fear from those of the third world as Singapore is still too good for them than their third world homeland. They die die will stay.

Nothing happens. No one is running away. Let me offer two possible reasons. The foreigners and their investments did not see anything fearsome to want to run away. Two, there are very few from the first world. Most of the foreign investors and investments are from the third world, where else to run to?

Oh, a third point, Singapore is now quite stable. It is no longer dependable on one man or one party to continue to grow and prosper. The country is stable enough to withstand the loss of the one man or the one party and its constituent key members.

This is the good news. Singapore will not be shaken just because of the loss of one man or one party. Singapore will not be turned into a third world country just because one opposition candidate gets elected into Parliament. No foreign investor will panic just because Chee Soon Juan would to get into Parliament.

Singapore is safe. The govt has done a good job to ensure that the country will continue to prosper with or without one man or one party.  Thank you very much. This is like a corporation not depending on an indispensable CEO and would collapse if the CEO is dead. I think my conclusion is good for Singaporeans. A country with a stable and sound system that would not be shaken and fell like a pack of cards when one man or one key minister suffered a stroke. I don’t think the situation would be different if it was not Heng Swee Kiat but someone else, like Tharman, Chee Hian or Hsien Loong.

The system will continue to run as if nothing had happened. The island would still be here. The property prices would not fall, and no one’s daughter or wife will become foreign maid. Singapore has passed its second durability test.

China’s inexplicable policies in the South China Sea

Everyone is making claims to the islands in the South China Sea. China’s 9 dash line claims it meeting overlapping claims by Vietnam, the Philippines, Malaysia and Brunei. Until the dispute is settled, the claimant countries are trying their best to enforce their claims by exerting control of the seas with their patrol boats. No clear cut answers would be appearing in the near horizon.

The biggest teething problem is not land reclamation but the presence of fishing boats in the disputed seas. Chinese fishing boats, Vietnamese, Filipinos, Thais, Malaysians and Indonesians have often been caught by the patrol boats of respective countries, some held for ransom, some blown to pieces.

Chinese fishing boats appear to be a common feature in being arrested by the claimant countries’ patrol boats, impounded or blown up. And other than some protests from the Chinese government, there seemed to be nothing that China could do to protect or demand the release of the fishing boats and the fishermen.

The fact that Chinese fishing boats and fishermen were arrested by claimant countries is an implicit sign that the fishing boats and fishermen were in the wrong, operating in other country’s territorial sea. It must be. If they are operating in Chinese or international waters they would not be arrested. If this is the case, it is simply a legal matter and rightly China cannot and should not be doing anything to protect the wrongs of its fishing boats and fishermen.

What if the fishing boats and fishermen were arrested in disputed seas claimed by China and other claimant countries. The implications, China has be default of its inaction, conceded that the fishing boats were in the claimant countries’ territorial waters. This would weaken China’s claim of the area under the 9 dash lines. The second implication is that China is a weak power, unable to protect its citizens in its own territorial waters. This point is even more damaging to China’s reputation as a sovereign and big power.

What is China’s stand or what would China do to maintain order and respectability in such cases? A straight forward position is for China to protect its fishing boats in the disputed waters and prevent them from being hauled away by claimant patrol boats. This is the least respectable thing for China to do and to uphold its claim to the sea within the 9 dash lines.

If China does not want to enforce its claims in the disputed waters, does not water to use force to protect its fishing boats, China could simply order its fishing boats to avoid the disputed waters. It would save the embarrassment of them being arrested and blown to pieces.  By allowing its fishing boats into disputed waters and be arrested is bad news, bad publicity from all points of view.

Would China take a firm and clear position on this matter to avoid being embarrassed? It is either enforce the claim or keep the fishing boats from trouble waters. The present situation of no policy and no stand is a bad policy.

The bigger question is would China take a stronger stance against the American provocation by sailing warships within the 12 nm of China’s territorial waters? Not doing anything would only encourage the crazy Americans to think China is weak. The latest report said China had scrambled fighter aircraft to intercept the ship. Is that enough or would China have to do like what Putin did in the Baltic Sea by screaming pass the ship at low level or more?

The attack on China continues

Tang Siew Mun, Head of Asean Studies Centre at ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute, continues the attack on China by calling on Asean to stick together to confront China in the South China Sea dispute or be hanged separately. I think this must be his personal view and not that of the Institute or the govt.

Let me quote what he said in his article, ‘Hang together or hang separately?’ published in the ST on 12 May.  I think as an academic his comments would not draw another strong protest from China for meddling with China’s internal affairs and not having to qualify that he is speaking in a personal capacity.

‘Asean has to take a firm stand on the SCS not because it wants to favour one claimant over another, but in order to protect the integrity and unity of the 10 member organization. If Asean shows that it is susceptible to any kind of external interference, it would lose its credibility and in the process declare itself “fair game” to any external powers.  Benjamin Franklin’s advice that “we must all hang together, or assuredly, we shall all hang separately” is particularly pertinent for the Asean leaders.

The above comment emphasizes integrity and unity of Asean and the assumption that Asean as a united block can take on a big power as an equivalent of a big power.  Talking about integrity of Asean is laughable since Asean discarded the concept of a Zone of Peace, Freedom and Neutrality. When Asean countries started to become allies of big powers, providing military facilities for big powers to exert their influence in the region, signing military alliances with big powers, engaging in warfare on the side of big powers, the integrity of Asean as a neutral block of countries is already a big question mark. 

Asean unity? Asean as a united block too is an aspiration rather than a reality. There are the pro US and pro China camps within Asean.

What is more naïve is to think that Asean, acting together as a block, would be a force to be reckoned with against big powers like the USA, PRC or India. Such big powers would give Asean a kick in the arse when they deemed fit and when their interests are challenged. The insanity of small countries thinking that they can punch above their weight or a small half past six regional block taking on the big powers can only be found in Asean countries. Some wanting to go to war with China, some wanting to push China out of the South China Sea. The most realistic of the Asean countries, and the most powerful militarily, having fought and defeated the Americans and a border war with China, understood what it is like to take on China in war. 

The only chance for Asean to hang together is to add on the American factor, to hang together with the Americans and go and fight wars all over the world with the Americans. Other than this reality of joining the international gangster, punching above your weight is only possible when the big powers graciously allows you to do so, partially also to cater to their interests. When their interests are at stake or violated, you will be punching a hard rock. And the weight of a mustard seed against a big rock is not difficult to comprehend.

Singapore is praying very hard to hitch a ride on the Chinese economic locomotive and is best not to be too cocky and indiscreet in taking sides when China’s core interests are involved. Yes, Singapore is a non claimant state in the SCS. Why is Singapore crying out loud everyday when the other claimant states are lying low?  Oops, it is not Singapore that is ruffling the feathers of China, but individuals speaking in their private capacity. And pray China would not because of these casual remarks by individual Singaporeans and cut off Singapore from the Chinese gravy train.

Where are these anti China rhetoric coming from? What is the agenda?

LKY’s hard truths outdated

There are many thoughts of LKY but not many are outdated. Many are still valid and would be valid for a long time to come. I am just referring to a couple of his thoughts or hard truths that have been superceded by recent events, proving that they are no longer valid.  The first is the belief that Singapore is not ready for an Indian Prime. This is no longer true. From my observation, Singaporeans are ready for an Indian PM plus an Indian President simultaneously. Singaporeans are even ready for a cabinet filled with minority ministers on the principle of meritocracy. As long as they are meritocratic, that is all that Singaporeans want to know and will accept them. Black cat white cat, can catch mouse, good cat.

The second thought, that Singaporeans would vote based on their racial identity, the sole justification for the need for GRC, is coming to question as well. In this case, LKY is partially right, or his thought is still valid to some extent and circumstances. I will use the Bukit Batok by election to support my case.

Let me start with voting by race. How could a minority candidate win an election competing one on one against a majority candidate in a constituency that has 75% of the majority race? This simply says that the majority did not vote by race. Otherwise Murali would at most be left with 25% of the votes presuming all the minorities voted for him and the majority voted for Chee. And throughout the election you could see how popular he was with the Chinese voters, from Hsien Loong down to the grassroot leaders and ordinary voters.

In this by election, very likely the Chinese votes were split 50:50 or 60:40 in favour of Murali. If this was not the case Murali would have no chance of winning. In the case of the Malay voters, it could be the same pattern. The only part of LKY’s thought that is still valid is that the Indian voters would likely vote along racial line, ie more would vote for an Indian candidate. This is the only portion of the thought that is still holding true.

The most important thing, the by election dispelled the basis for the continued existence of GRCs. The majority Chinese would vote based on meritocracy or on party track records. They are colour blind. So, this LKY thought is not wholly true today. And the same argument should also be applicable to the Elected President.

The reasoning and voting on merits among the Chinese is now the dominant force in their thinking or no thinking. The Chinese have embraced meritocracy like it is the golden truth. Race is no longer an issue. They are only capable of thinking on one single factor, nothing more. They are incapable of thinking of other factors like social and political considerations. They could not see anything further than today. What is going to happen tomorrow with the full force of meritocracy is beyond their grasp. Look at how they accept the huge influx of foreigners into the country, how Singaporeans are conveniently being replaced by foreigners in work places for all the wrong reasons? As far as the Chinese Singaporeans are concerned, their mindset is already stuffed with the word meritocracy, and if they are replaced at work or forced to leave this country, it is meritocracy.  They would not think that they have been cheated. Some even concede that this island belongs to anyone that comes here, and everyone and anyone has the right to take over this country as long as they are ‘good’ or ‘betterer’ than the daft Sinkies.

With this kind of mentality, to be generous, one can say the Singaporean Chinese are politically naïve. To be honest, the Singaporean Chinese are political idiots. On this ground, I conclude that the Singaporean Chinese are ready for an Indian PM plus an Indian President at the same time and with minority ministers in charge so long as they are meritocratic. I am not sure if the Malays would think like the idiotic Chinese and accept the same development.

So, the Bukit Batok by election has confirmed two things or thoughts of LKY. The Chinese would not vote on racial grounds. The Chinese are ready for an Indian PM and more. Having an Indian or minority President is not an issue. Many minority Presidents have been appointed and ‘elected’ as well.

The USA continues to raise tension in the South China Sea

The Americans continued with its third ‘freedom of navigation’ provocation a couple of days ago, this time sailing a warship within the 12 nautical miles of a Chinese island. This is an aggressive act, intruding into another country’s territorial waters, and would be expelled if not for the restraint the Chinese were exercising on their troops. It was an intrusion into another country’s territory by a warship without permission.

It is a matter of time when an impatient Chinese soldier will pull the trigger ‘accidentally’ and sink one of these warships and all its naval crews, just like the American ‘mistake’ in striking the Chinese Embassy in Belgrade with a cruise missile, in time of peace and under no provocation. The Chinese will not forget this hostile incident, an act of war, and will wait for the opportune moment to return the compliment. American naval military personnel on such ‘freedom of navigation’ or aggressive intrusion into Chinese waters must be prepared to be buried in the South China Sea, a matter of when. The Chinese must be calculating when would be the best time to commit a ‘mistake’ by a low level gunner that doesn’t normally think too much.

The crazy and belligerent Americans must be warned, the families of these sailors must be warned, it is a mission waiting to happen, and their fathers, sons and daughters, and husbands, may not come home, or if lucky, come home in black plastic bags. American exceptionalism does not confer the Americans the right to infringe and violate other country’s sovereignty and territorial integrity. And the Chinese have all the good reasons to make such a ‘mistake’. 

With Belgrade vivid in their minds, it is a convenient target to avenge the humiliating attack on their Embassy. A tooth for a tooth. When China is ready militarily, an American tooth would be extracted to pay for the Belgrade Incident.

The American people must send a message to the crazies in the White House and the Pentagon that the game has changed and China is about to take a tooth back from the Americans unless they stop their hostile acts in the South China Sea. You cannot go on provoking another big power in their homeland and think you can get a way with it. The whole world is watching this American provocation and military adventurism in the South China Sea. Aggression will not pay, will no longer pay, especially when the other side can hit back.

The USA must repent, now before it is too late.