12/02/2011

Let’s scoot to Sydney

From flying super first class in specially designed cabin to San Francisco, lying in cosy beds in wide bodied aircraft while crossing the Pacific Oceans, SIA is now trying a new business in budget airlines. It is like Shangri La going into foodcourt business. With this downstream business strategy, SIA’s business will be complete if it takes on food catering for the airline as well. It reminds me of DBS going back into post offices to serve the customers better.

The greatest achievement perhaps is the acquisition of another foreign talent as its CEO. Such talents are rare, exceptionally rare to find in this island. We have more than 40 years of aviation business history, but producing aviation professionals is something that is just simply difficult, like producing CEOs for our banking industry. Our locals just would not have the experience and the X factor to be CEOs of banks and airlines. The only chance to be one is by setting up a family business.

I believe this Australian CEO must come from the best Australian university, like all talented Australians. Singapore also has sent many of our local talents to Australian universities to study under the same lecturers and courses. Shouldn’t they be at par or similar in talent or knowledge acquired?

I read in the blog that an Australian university graduate of Singapore origin is driving taxi here. He has been replaced by foreign talents from, possibly Australia, could be the same course mate he studied together in university. And very likely their grades could be similar, but the Australian will be here as foreign talent, and may be his boss as well, enjoying all the perks and first class treatment as foreign talent.

There seems to be something missing. Why should two graduates from the same foreign university ended differently, one driving taxi and another as a top executive. One seen as non talent, another as super talent? Maybe their grades were different. Maybe the Singaporean was the average student of our system and the Australian the cream of their students. The truth is difficult to find out unless we can put their education records side by side for comparison.

Maybe there is something else. The X factor that Sinkies or most Asians just don’t have. Sinkies just don’t have that something to be suitable for top positions except in the civil service or as politicians. Put them into the private sector, they somehow don’t look good enough for the top jobs. Even foreign talents from third world countries look more desirable, and better, to fill top positions than Sinkies.

Maybe Singaporeans still look like their coolie parents and grand parents, somehow they don’t have that charisma to front the organization. Some say you need to look good in those high level positions. Some say it is a kind of aura, either one has it or doesn’t.

Blame it on the coolie stock. Until our coolie stock don’t look like Ah Seng or Ah Hock, until they are given the chances and exposure to be in those top positions, let’s keep them at the second level and leave the top management positions to foreigners with that special oomph. They really look good and possibly have straight As degree from the top Ivy League foreign universities. Our Sinkies may have straight As also, but ….

No wonder our taxi drivers are speaking quite good English and perfect to every inch as a butler. Many are probably graduates from foreign universities. Their fault is probably because they are Sinkies. If they hold a different passport, they could be here and welcomed as foreign talents.

12/01/2011

SDP’s pay recommendation for political office

Briefly, the SDP’s recommendation looks pretty reasonable with cabinet ministers getting 40 times the mean wage of the bottom 20% of the workforce. This works out to be $42k pm for ministers, with the PM getting $50k and the President $63k. Yes, very reasonable, minus the big bonuses!
What the recommendation amounts to is a pay cut for the ministers of about 90% or more. Now isn’t it ridiculous? My theory of RAR applies here. Things can look reasonable but can instantly become ridiculous when look at from another perspective.

The only misgivings I have, actually it is an observation, is how people’s mindset can be conditioned to an extent that it is so difficult to change. After all the publicity and discussions about the role of the president and how little he really does compares to a minister, the SDP recommendation still pegs the President’s salary higher than the PM. Beats me.

This kind of conditioning is very typical in Sin. Even people whose thinking are more than the average layman are affected by it. I will say, give the President an honorarium, a respectable amount given the role that he is doing. To me the President should not be getting even 50% of what a minister is getting. He should not even get what an MP should be getting, but conceding a higher amount is a respect for the high office.

I think anyone recommending the new salary package for the political office must bear in mind that it is reasonable and not ridiculous. But I must qualify that being reasonable and ridiculous is relative. The recommendation could be really very reasonable. It only look ridiculous when comparing to the current salaries of political office. Or put it another way, the current salaries look very ridiculous compare to the recommendations. Anyway both look ridiculous.

If the recommendation is to be adopted, which is another ridiculous thought, one good thing will happen. Property prices will fall as there will be lesser people able to throw their millions freely at properties.

The Art of RAR

I have developed a photography technique to capture images and turn them into photo paintings. The technique is called The Art of RAR, short for Reflection and Refraction. Basically the technique would not do away with all the reflection and refraction that would mess up an otherwise clean and clear image. Some of the details are in my Art of RAR blog.

Here I am talking about a different kind of RAR, the Art of being Reasonable and Ridiculous. When things are reasonable, seen or believe as reasonable, the people will accept them, some grudgingly, but life goes on. They will just shrug their shoulders and say what to do, it is the normal. When things become unreasonable or ridiculous, there will be under current, tension and anger, or more. The gap between being reasonable and ridiculous can be very wide and quite recognizable. Sometimes the two can be fused and confused. Sometimes what was reasonable, believed or thought to be reasonable can become ridiculous when there are conditions to magnify the differences.

When price of public housing was in the $30k or $50k level, it was reasonable. No argument about that. When they went to the $70k or $100k, still reasonable. People were happy to see their property prices appreciated. When the price moved up to the hundreds, $200k, $300k, still reasonable. Everyone feeling so much richer. Now the prices are $500k or more, still reasonable and affordable. Though the pain level has gone up, the threshold moves up as well. The frog in the boiling jar will get use to it. It will not spring up, no spring, unless it realizes that things have changed dramatically.

Everything is still reasonable. The young couple working through the prime of their lives to pay up a mortgage of 30 years for a public flat will not have any adverse feelings. Everyone is doing it. It is normal. This is the way things are supposed to be.

Would they ever change their perception that the normal is not really normal, not reasonable but ridiculous? It is just a matter of perception. While they are working their guts out to pay for the working class flat which is getting smaller and smaller, a retired minister could buy a much better flat quite easily with his pension, without working. And he need not have to take a 30 year mortgage, not 20 years, not even 10 years. No, he need not even have to take one year to pay. He could pay cash, in one day, instantly, with his pension.

When one compares this with the 30 year mortgage for a HDB flat, reasonableness becomes ridiculous, I think. But no, the Singaporeans would never think it that way. They would not have time to think, or would not even think about it. For the small minorities who think and are unhappy, they can get lost, be a quitter. They would not be missed. For every unhappy and unappreciative Singaporean there are thousands of hungry and appreciative foreigners waiting to take his place. It will be good riddance, a grouchy and potential trouble maker less if he quits.

For those who refuse to quit, all it needs is good communication to reach out to them, to tell them that things are so good. Everything is reasonable. Where got ridiculous? This is the Art of RAR, to be able to keep an even keel, to explain and ensure that everything is seen, believe and accepted as reasonable, even if they are plain ridiculous.

11/30/2011

The world is black and white

Maldrid Braut Hegghammer, an assistant professor of the Norwegian Defense University College, Oslo has his article printed in the New York Times and republished in Today. The title of his article is ‘The real lesson of Iraq.’ His main argument is that the invasion of Iraq was a mistake for two reasons. One, the IEAE’s report was not reliable, and two, Iran’s effort to hide information about its nuclear facilities.

In his view, it was right for America to invade Iraq if the IEAE’s report was accurate and Iraq had the nuclear facilities to make nuclear weapons. This is the white countries logic that the black countries are bad, and will use nuclear arms if they have them, and it is the right thing for the white countries to attack black countries to prevent them from having nuclear weapons.

It is right and normal for white countries to possess nuclear arms and to use it or threaten to use it on black countries.

I must thank the Today paper to reveal this kind of black and white logic in the western world. That it is their right to have nuclear arms and to use nuclear arms. The black countries cannot be allowed to have nuclear arms. Black countries are dangerous while white countries are not. And it is alright to attack another black country using this justification.

Can Asean countries use this logic to attack one another should one country decides to go nuclear? This is White Rule. And the author and all white thinking readers will accept this Rule without question. One rule for the white and one rule for the black.

40 years of good governance

The MAS is celebrating 40 years of good governance. The little glitch created by the toxic notes and Lehman bonds were the exceptions of an otherwise a glittering record of how well a govt treasury transcended smoothly from a developing to a developed country. And there were many good people at the helm of the MAS to make it happened.

The road forward is treacherous with the products of the great American Ivy League universities producing crooks and scoundrels to run the American and international financial system with no qualms about moral goodness. It was like if they were told to go out and grab everything they could with their privileged education and membership to an elite class.

MAS had done well but could not prevent major hiccups along the way that are beyond its control. No one will blame MAS for making a slip here and there. But MAS should do its utmost to ensure that slips that are preventable would not be allowed to happen too often. The toxic notes incident was a wake up call that deregulations and a laid back approach is just not workable.

Are there any more toxic notes equivalents in our system that is waiting to blow up in the face of the MAS? Hopefully there isn’t. When the toxic notes were allowed into the system, I believe, due diligence would have been done by the respective organizations and some confidence that they were reasonably sound products for the markets. One lesson from this debacle is never to allow the salesman who is peddling the product to do the due diligence. He will do whatever and just enough to convince everyone that all is fine. There are vested interests in the peddlar to want to push his products into the market.

What is the state of health of our financial market? Or specifically, what is the state of health of the stock market. Every piece of news reported is good news. Our stock market is in the pink of health and we are marching confidently to become a major financial centre in East Asia, contending for the top position with Tokyo and Hongkong. I really hope that this is the case.

There have been many uncomfortable noises in the finance industry since the introduction of high speed trading system and high speed computers, the latter being plug into the stock exchange’s trading system. Everyone is told that this is a good thing, the way forward. Everything is simply fine, going as planned.

The uncomfortable noises and reservations about high speed trading and the unfair advantages they have over ordinary traders have been highlighted by American and European experts. Many smelt foul but would not go too far to say anything worst. And the fouling is more than meets the eyes or at least this is the general perceptions of market stakeholders. The outsiders do not have access, and do not know enough of the high speed computer trading platform to make an informed judgement.

What is high speed trading and how much do we know of this new animal is still a big question. Is it simply a case of innocent computers that just attached itself to the exchange computer system to facilitate high speed trading, and nothing more?

Perhaps it is opportune at this time for MAS to commission an in dept study of high speed trading and whether it violates the basic principles of a level playing field for all stake holders. Or is high speed trading a Frankenstein in the making and the untold damages are still unfolding? An independent team to investigate this system is needed to address the discomfort among the stakeholders, and to confirm that any misgiving is unfounded. A thorough study is warranted to assure all stake holders that they are not sucked into a quagmire without knowing what is happening.

And MAS owes this responsibility to do its part for the interests of all stake holders. If there is a lemon in the financial system, it is important to sieve it out asap before it turns into another Lehman crisis. Would MAS take on this task, or it has done so and that everything is in order? The high speed trading platform and the high speed computers are fair trading instruments that do not have added advantages over other players, nothing unfair, and there is nothing to worry about.

Such an assurance will be most welcomed to put many insecure and suspicious minds at ease. Until then, the lack of understanding of the true nature of high speed trading, how it actually works, will only lead to misunderstanding, speculation and misgivings. Transparency and public education on high speed trading system are needed for it to be accepted as a neutral tool and fair to all stake holders. Everyone wants to believe that high speed trading and high speed computers are fair game.