11/14/2011

Change in editorial policy

I was watching Channel 5 coverage on the SEA Games. Tao Li won 4 gold and going for the 5th. And a games sticker came out at the end of the event. Li Tao first. Is her name Tao Li or Li Tao? Is our shooter Zhang Jin or Jin Zhang? The other shooter was Ong Jun Hong though the TV sticker came out as Jun Hong Ong. Then there were several swimmers, Jia Hao Ng must be Ng Jia Hao. This non standard format of writing of Chinese names also affected the Vietnamese with Nguyen sometimes in front and sometimes behind the names. Actually Singaporean Chinese names were also reported either ways.

If I can be confused, so would other nationalities. As they said, let’s just follow the majority as the majority seems to be always right, or at least it is more practical to do so. In this case we have the western format as the dominant and familiar way, and easier to understand. So with immediate effect the editorial policy of this blog will adopt the western format when names are concerned. The family name or surname will henceforth be written behind the individual’s name. This should standardise everything and no one will be confused anymore. It will make us to be more westernised or international. No more guessing game.

For a start we will have to get use to Kuan Yew Lee, Chok Tong Goh, Boon Wan Khaw, Eng Hen Ng. Luckily still can address our President as Tony Tan unless he prefers people to call him Keng Yam Tan.

That’s it. This is the way forward. Follow the prevailing trend, and the western style. We will set the standard for countries with Chinese to follow suit. I hope the Govt will make it official for Mediacorp and SPH to do the same. In the interim, while the world gets use to this standardisation, just bear with Mr Kuan instead of Mr Lee, Mr Chok instead of Mr Goh....

PS. Let's not confused the world. Or shall I say let's confuse the world more?

11/13/2011

The brilliant $2 solution

Not many people can remember what this $2 solution was/is all about. Many have accepted it as a way of life and the new normal. It happened nearly 20 years ago, but I still remember. Just to refresh the memory, two decades ago computer technology was not that advance and computer memory was quite small and expensive. I am not sure if this was the main problem, but some banks found that having too many accounts was not only troublesome for their computerized system, but also costly. Computer memory cost money.

What to do? And to ridicule the problem, many accounts were either inactive or have very small deposits in them, some from children’s saving accounts. It was not profitable or meaningful to have these teeny weeny accounts. The only way to get rid of these accounts was simply to charge them a $2 monthly fee if the clients want to continue to keep the accounts. The logic was simple, it cost manpower and resources to service these accounts, and computer memory space.

As a result, all the banks started to impose a $2 fee on accounts with less than $500 or $1000 deposit. I was a victim of this brilliant solution. I totally forgotten about a gold savings account with a local bank. There were a couple of hundred dollars left in them after I sold off my investment. One day I received a note from the bank that it was closing this account of mine as there was no money left. My few hundred bucks gone like that!

I was furious. How could a bank eat up my money which I thought would grow as the interest was quite high then. What I did was normally expected of an unhappy customer. I closed down all my accounts with the bank. Till today, I have no accounts with the bank, not even its credit cards. I was not the only victim. Many victims also suffered in silence as it was their fault for not closing the accounts. It was the fault of the customers to leave their accounts open. The banks happily kept deducting the money and did not bother to remind the clients to close the accounts.

The $2 was a brilliant solution to save money and unnecessary work for the banks. The one who came out with the solution must be a brilliant super talent.

I think NUS School of Management should use this as a compulsory case study in its management courses. It will be a shining example of how effective a $2 solution can be in cost cutting and getting rid of undesirable customers. Harvard may also want to incorporate this into their courses, as a brilliant Singapore solution.

11/12/2011

Posts disappearing after posting

Several bloggers have encountered this problem since yesterday that their posts were disappearing. Is this a bug in Blogger or is it something more sinister?

Whatever, people will put one and one together and look at the direction which they think is the likely source of such strange things. America did it many times. Create a problem and point the finger at whoever they want to target. It is called false flag incidents.

Now some bloggers may think that I am deleting the disappearing posts. No way that I am doing it. I hope it is such a bug. There is no reason for me to delete any post. In fact I welcome more bloggers to post in my blog. The more the merrier. That is why my posts often are provocative and take on pretty strong and controversial views.

I hope this problem will go away. If it persists, as it has never happened before, you can make your wild guess. A point to note, as it made me wondering, was the exceptionally high traffic on Thursday morning. It more than double the normal volume. Could that be the indicator of someone breaking into this blog?

Redbean.

All the signs of the world economy going down

The crisis in Europe is just opening up. How serious it will become is still anyone’s guess. Europe is going down, and so is the US. Foreign banks here are starting to retrench some of their staff, in small numbers. The cause, financial deals are drying up. The financial industry will be the first to be hit this time as investment banks are losing credibility with their huge appetite for gambling.
High net worth clients who are smart enough would be getting cold feet with banks gambling with their money. Yes, it is big time gambling, not playing jackpot machines in the casinos. Many high net worth clients must be losing huge sums of money with stock markets going down in a spiral. And with cash is king, some may be tempted to just sit on it.

The retrenchment of investment bank staff is likely to affect the finance talents whose incomes are pretty substantial. And if these people are committed to multi million dollar properties and expensive cars, it is going to hit them in some ways. The big mortgages are not going to go away. They need two big incomes to service.

Then people will be pointing naughty fingers at them. Why take such big loans and big risk? Why buy properties beyond their means. The thing is that they were not given a chance. They were not eligible to buy properties within their means, to eligible to buy more affordable public housing. Hope it is not going to be the case, or some will be strangling themselves. Those in MF Global are likely to be seeking new jobs too.

When the bubble bursts, those who put these people at unnecessary high risk must touch their hearts and ask themselves if they have done wrong.

11/11/2011

The world watches in silence

After Iraq and Libya, the next target of the Empire is Iran. They are preparing the grounds for it. They have spoken openly of the impending attack to gauge world reactions. Silence. The muslim world is headless and too deep in their own trouble to worry about anything else. Some may be afraid that their country will be next to be invaded and regime changed. Better to dig the head deeper into the sand for safety.

The rest of the world also remains silent as if nothing is happening. Like the proverbial 4 monkeys, see nothing, hear nothing, say nothing and do nothing. Don’t count on the western media or the white men’s conscience to denounce the premeditated murder of the Iranians.

Can any country stop this evil Empire from its murderous intent? If the rest of the world is willing to stand behind China or Russia to challenge the evil Empire from committing more genocide, there may be some hope. You need the rest of the world and the two nuclear power countries to keep the evil Empire at bay.

But why should China do anything? The rest of the world believes that China is the evil one, the aggressive one, their enemy, though China has not even lift a little finger to attack any country. It is best for China to stay out of the killing and destruction and let the evil Empire go on to take out one country after another in the name of peace. Any attempt for China to stand up for the weak nations will be immediately condemned by the western media. That is understandable. But the attacks by the western media will be joined by more attacks by the weak nations of Asia and Africa on China. They will immediately point the finger at China as a country willing to use military power to bully smaller nations. They could not see the Americans are doing exactly that.

It is best for China to stay out of the impending nuking of Iran. It is best for China just to look after its own territorial integrity and make sure that no little pesky country would dare to encroach on its territories and make spurious claims on them.

Let the evil Empire teach the weak nations a lesson on goodness and who to trust. It is now fabricating more evidences, like WMD against Saddam Hussein, to attack Iran. It is forcing China to join them against Iran, to impose more sanctions and even support the strike against Iran.

What a peace loving Empire.

MAS is starting to show interests

The MF Global sham must have triggered MAS into action. Or is it Paul Volcker’s recommendation for more regulation than deregulation? Well, MAS is introducing more regulations to prevent more lemons appearing in our financial market, to protect the average investors. Sophisticated instruments, derivatives etc will now be subject to more regulations to prevent innocent, ignorant and unsophisticated investors from being sucked into the quagmire and lose their life savings.

It is a good start, albeit a little too late and a bit too little. The measures taken are still too inadequate to prevent the loss of billions to the big funds which is happening daily. It is not just the derivatives and sophisticated products that are at fault. There are system faults that cannot go on like this.

The derivatives are now seen as dangerous, if not toxic. If they are dangerous, shouldn’t they be taken out of the system completely? Or it is okay to sell poison as long as the buyer knows that it is poison? This is a philosophical question. It can be a matter of right and wrong, a moral issue.

Derivatives are not only dangerous by themselves. The fact that they are derived from the major stocks in the market will also put these stocks at risk to grave manipulations. The intrinsic values of these component stocks will be of no bearing to the speculators whose only interest is profit by pushing the stocks up and down, at high speed.

The more dangerous development is to allow funds to hook up their computers to the stock market system. This is unfair in many counts. They could trade at high speed with the advantage of high speed computers and with the information provided by the system that the average investors are not accessible to. And they could use big muscles, with practically unlimited trading limits to corner stocks, to move stocks at will.

Cornering of stocks, buying and selling without change of ownership are all against the rules and regulations of the stock market. Are the funds doing it, or allow to do it?

For several years, the investors have been brought to the cleaners by the big funds. A report on who are the main winners and who are the losers would tell the story much clearer on how the system is disadvantaging the average investors.

MAS could have done more to ensure that the stock market is a level playing field to all investors, big or small. Funds can play with their sophisticated computers, algos, big war chests, but must not be allowed to hook their computers to the exchange. This is the least that MAS has to do.

Smaller flats do not compromise on quality of life

This is another political truth that Singaporeans are going to make to believe in. Drinking shit water is good. No car will not affect the quality of life. Two working parents too will not affect family life as quality time is more important. HDB flats are affordable, are affordable and stop complaining that it is not.

Singaporeans are not gullible. They are only easily made to believe whatever political truths they are made to believe. Foreign talents are here to help them and not competing with them for jobs or facilities. Foreign talents are better than local talents.

As far as living in small flats or mickey mouse flats are concerned, just compared with Hongkong and Japan and we will feel so blessed. In Hongkong a designer can even turn a 300 sq ft unit into a lifestyle statement. On entering the unit, he says, welcome to my living room. Then he pull down a shelf, without moving from the spot he is standing, he will say, welcome to my kitchen, next by moving a panel, he says, this is my toilet. Then pushing another panel and pulling out a sofa bed, he says here is my bedroom.

All high tech staff, futuristic, with expensively designed furniture and fittings. His life style is definitely not affected. In fact he will show off his cleverly designed flat as a statement of style.

Seriously, what kind of flats, what size is needed for a decent flat to raise a family with two children? Have we forgotten about family and children? Maybe we have accepted that the family shall be small, with one or two children or no children at all. Get use to the smaller flats. There is no contradiction or conflict in policies, definitely.

But having two children still needs a lot of space for growing up, for grandparents or a maid. Oh, we used to have many bodies in a cubicle. Two on the beds, two under the beds, one on the table, one under the table, one in the kitchen and a few more in every corner of the room. How can we complain about smaller flats? We have progressed, like back to the future.

The thing is that why are we squeezing our people into smaller spaces. Or is it to make room for more foreigners, for 10m population? Is a bigger population indispensable, which our progress depends on it and is the quality of our life? If the quality of life is living in smaller and smaller flats that are going to cost more and more, I think this kind of progress can be done without.

Are we serious in wanting parents to have children, to have three tiered families? Sure, it only depends on whether you can afford it. Having more children and three tiered families in a 10,000 sq ft or 20,000 sq ft property should be no problem. When you can’t afford that, live within your means and try clever redesigning, clever use of space like squeezing the maids with the grands or the children or in the store room.

The quality of our life style will definitely not be affected. It is only an issue of affordability and living within your means.

A specialist hospital across the causeway

Peter Lim and the Sultan of Johore are building a specialist hospital just across the causeway to cater for Johoreans and Singaporeans. This is the best joint venture to date coming from Johore. And the involvement of the Sultan will eradicate a lot of petty problems that could be conceived from petty minds.

When I wrote about such an option, my main worry is the use of CPF for medical treatment in the Iskander. You know, it can be something like the ¾ tank rule all over again. Then it is as good as a no go. With the Sultan’s stake in the hospital, we can be sure that this is not going to happen. It will definitely give the hospital a big boost in drawing more Singaporeans over.

On the Malaysian side, the Sultan’s presence can ease many unnecessary troubles. The most obvious is to ensure that crime against Singaporeans using the hospital is not an issue and the police would have to work harder on this. Then without Mahathir in the kitchen, hopefully no UMNO leaders will agitate against Singaporeans using their facilities or jamming their roads, raising cost of living.

I am really looking forward to a successful symbiotic relationship between the two sides that improves the lives of both people. The Johoreans will benefit from a world class hospital and its supporting industries. Singaporeans will not be squeezed by the local hospitals and have a meaningful alternative across the causeway.

It can be a real win win situation and not mere lip service.

11/10/2011

Notable quote from LKY

"If you don't include your women graduates in your breeding pool and leave
them on the shelf, you would end up a more stupid society...So what happens?
There will be less bright people to support dumb people in the next
generation. That's a problem." - MM Lee in 1983

Someone sent me this quote and after reading it I was a bit puzzle. I can’t figure out ‘less bright people to support dumb people in the next generation.’ I think I got a mental block here. I am intrigue by this quote. Please read it carefully and find the intricate truth it is revealing.

Selling junks is a crime!

The scavenger went to the junk yard to hunt for usable parts, took them home, sieved out the usable parts, repaired or refurbished them and sold them in the market. Is that a crime? Definitely not. What if they are military parts, is it a crime?

According to two hawks in the US Senate, Carl Levin and John McCain, it is a crime against the US. Selling them is like selling counterfeit parts. Are they counterfeits? They are genuine parts! The only thing is that they are discarded junks and the junk scavenger took the initiative to find them and rework them into working parts. If this is not allowable, then all the junk yard operators should close down.

So what if they are military parts when there are willing buyer and seller. And these are not really arms parts but electronic parts from old circuit boards which can be used for anything, not necessarily weapons. And there are millions of them floating around. How could there be millions of them be floating around when they are parts of weapons? But that was what the American Defence Department claimed.

The two senators are using this accusation as an excuse to create problems for Chinese electronic parts entering the US. They wanted to use it to justify inspecting all Chinese shipments to the US. Basically these jokers are sick, running out of ideas. They still think that it is a one way affair, that they can make life difficult for China, bully China. The game can be played both ways and many American goods going to China would likewise be subject to the same courtesy.

A frightening discovery

Maybe it is not, just a confirmation that it is real. After a few days of discussion on the housing issues, it comes out very clearly that the average Singaporeans either refuse to think, or simply cannot think, or too frighten to think.

When faced with problems, they said, look at the third world countries, we are so much better. Or, it could be worst. They would not compare with the best or would not think that it can be better. The status quo is the best and the only way. Even after May 6, with a trickle of change coming up, they are still not convinced that they could make the change for the better in a bigger way.

They simply accept the raison d’tre of the authority. If people don’t sign up to buy flats, the govt will not build. The govt will only build when there is solid demand with applicants putting their money out front and signing on the dotted line. So what if it takes 3 to 4 years to build a flat? Even if it is 10 years, that’s the way it should be. They should be grateful that they got such a good flat. Other countries, many do not have such good housing.

May 6 did change a little on this great thinking and policy. Without May 6, the housing programme still will be as before, build only when there is demand and be grateful to get a flat in 3 or 4 years. That was the normal and the best thing can be.

The other great logic, the higher income Singaporeans are competing with the lower income Singaporeans for public flats. And if they are allowed to buy public flats, they will deprive the chances of lower income applicants. What a great logic. So it is ok for the slightly higher income citizens to compete with the richer foreigners in buying private flats and emptying their savings plus a big big mortgage.

No, the average Singaporeans could not see the flaw in this logic. They could not see anything further than their noses. I am too tired to repeat the explanation on how nonsensical is this reasoning. For those who can understand, good, for those who can’t, good.

And many Singaporeans are barred from buying a public flat for all kinds of reasons while foreigners/new citizens who did not contribute anything to the country, not even defending the country, are allowed to buy public flats. I just saw this quote in the Today paper and I just modify the last word from bonus to housing. ‘Consider that we trust military and homeland security personnel with our lives, yet we don’t’ give them lavish ‘homes’. The author Nassim Nicholas Taleb was referring to the lavish bonuses of the bankers in America.

There are many weird logics and reasonings that the average Singaporeans will just accept blindly. Cheng Hu kong so must believe, must follow, must accept, cannot argue. Would they ever believe that an alternative govt of better people can be better than the present govt? No, it could be worst. This is the best. There are no better people than those already in the govt.

It is quite frightening really, to think of a people raised in the best education system and failed badly in trying to use their brains to think deeper and not accepting superficial explanations. It would not hurt the brain to make it work a little bit more. Keeping it in pristine condition is a bad thing. The more one works the brain, the shinier it will be.

I may be wrong. And there is still hope that those who are not thinking and see this place as a Shangrila, flawless, are new citizens or PRs who came from a lower base. That could also be the reason why they are asking critical and cynical Singaporeans to get lost so that they can bring in their families here. This is indeed a place made in heaven if you know where they are coming from.

11/09/2011

How to solve the hungry ghosts issue?

On the positive side, the Tourist Board can capitalize on it and coin a new slogan to attract more tourists here. I can think of one immediately, come and see ‘Beauty and the beasts in paradise island’, or ‘First and third world cohabitation at Sentosa’. Singapore could then become another exciting exotic and erotic destination unlike the dull first world image of being squeaky clean like Europe.

Another possible solution is to educate the ladies to be more tolerant, be friendly or even party with the hungry ghosts. They will be most happy to be friendly with them instead of just ogling or gawking at them. They would not look hostile or intimidating any more.

A third option is to ban bikinis and swimming suits or scantily dressed girls in Sentosa beach. They are the main cause of all the problems. Remove them and it will remove all the problems of hungry ghosts.

One standard solution that is always in the lips of Singaporeans when such problems arise is to erect barriers to keep the beasts away. And, yes, oh yes, levy a fee for going to the beach protected by the barriers, like ERPs. How come it takes me so long to think of this marvelous idea?

See, problem solved, Singapore uniquely.

The changing balance of power in the Pacific

At its weakest, China was still a country to be conquered and colonized. Unlike India, there was a central govt for many centuries under different empires, including the Mongols and the Manchurians. The vastness of China, its relatively homogenous population and centuries of cultivated civilization, science and technology, arts and literature, social system, history and a sophisticated written language, gave it a special advantage over the Mongols and the Manchus. Both conquerors and rulers of China became absorbed by the Chinese civilization and were sinicised in the process. Instead of China becoming Mongolia or Manchuria, both states became China.

China came under the concerted attacks of the Western powers in the 19th Century. Despite its relative strength in numbers, though inferior in technology, it was no match to the technologically superior foreign forces. They applied strength in concentration of fire power and mobility to decisively defeat the Chinese by piece meal. They could mobilize and move their troops at will and at great speed and to choose their battle fields. A few British ships could hit port cities after cities, though numerically small, but superior in a localized context, and triumphed over the less mobile and scattered forces of the Chinese troops.

The European powers controlled the sea with their powerful naval power till today, with the Americans and their aircraft carriers and strike groups. The Americans were superior in nuclear weapons and delivery system. The Americans were also superior in the sea and have control of the air space as well. And they also have military bases at China’s front yard, in South Korea and Japan.

The balance of power was overwhelmingly in favour of the Americans in all areas of warfare. The Americans could even conduct a conventional land battle in Chinese soil by landing American infantry divisions there.
This American superiority and dominance over the Chinese faded overnight at a speed that has taken the Americans by surprise. The equation has changed dramatically and it is no longer feasible for the Americans to a fight land warfare in China. Neither do the Americans have control of the sea or air superiority in the seas surrounding China any more. The Americans could still be very superior in nuclear warfare with their arsenal of ICBMs and nuclear warheads. The problem is that nuclear warfare is no longer an option between the two powers and superiority in this theatre is as good as academic.

What is left of the equation? With air superiority and control of the seas thrown out of the window, American aircraft carriers can no longer be the launching pads for its fighter bombers to attack China. Neither can they ferry the troops to land in Chinese soils. The Chinese are capable of taking out the aircraft carriers should they dare to venture within their strike range.

The military bases in South Korea and Japan still offer such advantages but will be top priority targets to be knocked out in the early stages of hostility. In fact all the military bases in South Korea and Japan, including Korean and Japanese bases with be taken out of the equation the moment hostility is declared. China cannot afford any bases to be operational for the Americans to launch their attacks into Chinese territories. A thousand missiles were aimed at Taiwan when Chen Shui Bian and Lee Teng Hui attempted to break away from China. The number of missiles aiming at South Korea and Japan could be many times more to ensure nothing is left standing. South Korea and Japan better pray that there is no war between the two giants. They will be targets number One.

They cannot believe that China will let the Americans used their bases to attack her. It used to be a very safe game to play when China could not even hit a target a hundred meters from its own shores. It is a new China that has the ability to take out anything in South Korea and Japan.

Without Japan and South Korea to launch their attacks, can America really conduct a war with China from the eastern front, from the seas? In all circumstances, China has more or less neutralized and secured its eastern front. The other possible battle fronts will be Vietnam, India and Chinas’ south western corner. This could be the reasons why there were so many ongoings between the Americans and these countries. The question is whether these countries would think they could get away with a war on the side of the US. Assuming the leaders of these countries are not fools, there is no reason to turn their countries into battle zones for the two super powers.

When the Chinese are capable of hitting their enemies across all their borders, war between China and the US is increasingly more difficult. The balance of power has been leveled between the two superpowers. Both are no longer comfortable to fight a war with superior advantage. America can still claim overall superiority in many areas. But no one will emerge the winner in a war between the two superpowers.

It was a totally different ball game when the Americans could strike China from their aircraft carriers with impunity. This option is closed. Any reckless attempts could see the aircraft carriers and the whole battle group sink into the East and South China Seas like the Prince of Wales and the Repulse in the Second World War. Gone were the days when the American naval task force could sail up and down the China Seas to threaten China and the Chinese could not do anything about it.

The new balance will prevent the adventurous from embarking on their crazy adventures of assured self destruction. It is also game over for little pesky countries.

Internet saboteurs

My blog is again experiencing the presence of an internet brigade bent on attacking everything I posted without offering any ounce of sensible reply. The behavior is crude, rude and downright disgusting. It also reflects on their low intellect and foul upbringing.

What is bad about this development is that, no matter what is their motive or motivation, like it or not, the finger will be pointing at one party. It may be a false assumption to put the blame on the innocent party. But can’t be helped. It is the expectation and perception that the party will stoop to such low level tactics to achieve its aim.

The perception of people is strange and quite predictable. One does not need to be the guilty party to be blamed for things that one did not commit. Just like the bugger in the centre that went frolicking but the two balls got hung for not doing anything.

The nonsensical attacks on bloggers in cyberspace by unknowns are a poor reflection of whoever that is behind it. I feel sorry for the party that is going to be blamed for such nonsense when in fact it is innocent. The more frequent the attack, the more angry will be the people against the party they think is behind it.

Well, it happened. Let’s move on.

A new kind of hungry ghost festival

Paradise should not be like this. In paradise, one can expect everything to be nice and beautiful, with beautiful people, well dressed, affluent, well mannered, cultured, and full of social graces. No one would expect to step into paradise and be hounded everywhere by hungry ghosts.

The hungry ghost festival is no longer in the 7th moon of the lunar calendar but every weekend or public holiday. And the ghosts were hungry but not just for food. They were hungry for the fairer sex. I saw some of the photos posted in the net of the hungry ghosts in Sentosa Island and I am dismayed.

My beautiful island in the sun, the paradise on earth, the peace and tranquility, are shattered by rude and brazen male specimens of the human kind, intruding into the privacy of the holiday makers. They do not respect any rights of privacy to be left alone to enjoy the sun, sea and sand. They just plonked themselves in close quarters to the ladies in their bikinis and swimming suits. Their eyes zeroed into the semi naked bodies, salivating and mentally raping every female in sight. Are such harassment tolerable? The ladies may think they have came to paradise but hades is what they found.

Maybe it is the fault of the ladies. They should not be dressed that way to tempt the hungry ghosts. And if these specimens lose their senses and go wild, with mass rape in the heat of the moment, they should not be held responsible. The temptation of the apple in close range, so tantalizing, is just too irresistible. Mob behavior is unpredictable.

What is happening to my island paradise? A nightmare is waiting to happen. It is so menacing to see the females being surrounded by hoards of hungry male specimens with their animal urges ready to explode at any moment. It was only last year when a female dancer on stage was physically groped by the hungry ghosts for several minutes and all those presence just watched in bewilderment.

Heard they are stepping up patrols to guard against people committing suicide in Bedok Reservoir. Would they be increasing patrols or do something to prevent mob rioting for sex? It would not happen. Ok, but what about our tourist image as a paradise on earth, to bath and sun in peace and with a little privacy instead of being hounded by hungry ghosts? Are we turning our squeaky clean garden city image into a third world slum with the accompanying inhabitants and foul social norms? Tourists who enjoy visiting slums will choose countries where they can find slums. When they came to Singapore, the first world garden city, they don't expect to be greeted or swarmed by third world inhabitants and their nauseating and disgusting habits. It will be a shocking disappointment. Who would want to visit Europe to just see the slums of Asia and mingled with the hungry Asian hordes?

11/08/2011

Reckless Meritocracy

‘In meritocracies, though, it’s the very intelligence of our leaders that creates the worst disasters. Convinced that their own skills are equal to any task or challenge, meritocrats take risks that lower wattage elites would never even contemplate, embark on more hubristic projects, and become infatuated with statistical models that hold out the promise of a perfectly rational and frictionless world.

Inevitably, pride goeth before a fall….It will do (the country) no good to replace the arrogant with the ignorant, the overconfident with the incompetent.

In place of reckless meritocrats, we don’t need feckless know nothings. We need intelligent leaders with a sense of their own limits, experienced people whose lives have taught them caution. We still need the best and brightest, but we need them to have somehow learnt humility along the way.’


Come come, I know what you are thinking. No. Not what you are thinking.

This is an extract of an article in mypaper today by an American called Ross Douthat and reprinted from The New York Times. The author was referring to Jon Corzine, who grew up in rural Singapore, oops, I mean Illinois, a farmer’s grandson, made it good in his studies and rose to become a politician. In his egoistic grandeur, he took big bets on other people’s money and hoping to make a killing and be celebrated as the new financial whiz kid. He failed and lost billions of his clients’ money in MF Global. The story is just beginning. How big is the hole is still unknown.

When God is not willing, no amount of talent or presumed talent can save the day. He was just a gambler. He dug his own hole and is falling into it.

CFDs are for sophisticated clients

With the MF Global bankruptcy turning into another lemon juice, more questions are being raised on CFDs in the media in the Sunday Times. When all the toxic notes and bonds were introduced to the market, they too were listed as sophisticated products, complex products for sophisticated clients. When the Lehman bonds have gone one step further and have been condemned as a con job in the US, when high risks housing mortgages were packaged and given triple AAA ratings to be sold to sophisticated investors, they also found the issuers betting against the failure of the bonds. The issuers thus made both ways, selling junks and if junks failed they would be paid by their insurers.

CFDs, like many derivatives, are highly geared instruments for trading in the market. And everyone knows that it is high risk and high return. Not only the sophisticated investors know of this risk, even the unsophisticated layman will know what they will be dabbling in.

For the less sophisticated investors, who are more prudent in their investment outlook, more are turning to the mundane and traditional stocks where the risk is lower. Simply, when one buys a stock, it is unlikely to lose everything unless the company goes bust or the management ran away. In trading derivatives, the margin is the capital in play and it is quite easy to lose everything in a short time.

Then again, lately stocks too have a very high tendency to go bust or with management running away and investors losing everything. Stocks too are not as safe as before the advent of derivatives. Many derivatives are stock based. What could happen is that the trading and fluctuating of stock prices are now tightly knitted with the prices of derivatives. Stock prices can also go on a wild ride when big derivative players have to cover their positions by manipulating stock prices. Though price manipulation is a breach of stock trading regulation, often it is very difficult to prove and to apprehend the manipulators. The latter have many sophisticated and complex ways of covering their tracks.

The seemingly innocent stocks are not that docile and safe anymore.

Does anyone spend a moment to think of what the word ‘sophisticated’ means in derivatives and stock trading? It is a sophisticated way to describe high risk gambling in the stock market. A sophisticated client is a client willing to take high risk, like a gambler. A sophisticated product or derivative is a high risk gambling product. Period.

High risk gambling belongs to the casino and not the stock market where the dynamics and conduct of business are different. Gambling is just gambling, take a bet, be fast, no need to worry about fundamentals, or no fundamentals at work. Buy white or red does not need analysts and their back breaking reports. Pressing the button of a jackpot machine only needs to look at the probability of winnings. A computer that can be attached to the machine will definitely increase the odds.
There is such a thing called blue chips in the stock market where the business and bottom line of the companies are more important in determining the price of the stocks than simply betting it up and down by algos in split seconds. Is the stock market turning into a casino or is it a mixture of both?

Perhaps the high risk derivatives should be assigned to a different platform, something like casino counters, and govern by the Casino Regulatory Authority. High risk gambling must be controlled under more stringent rules and regulations. Better still that they be delinked from the primary stock market. They can create derivatives from anything, not necessarily stocks in the stock markets, and this will spare the blue chips and good stocks from being murdered by the big derivative speculators.

And the word ‘sophisticated’ should be cast to the world of gambling and casinos.

A summary of the discussion on housing policies

Some Singaporeans refused to see the real causes of the housing problems.
Some may not be able to understand.
Some bark up the wrong trees.
Some accepted that this is the way things should be and willing to live with it.
Some really think that it is the higher income Singaporeans trying to snatch the few public flats from the lower income Singaporeans.
Some believe that the higher income Singaporeans must spend all their money to buy private properties.
Some believe that it is their own fault for not being able to afford public flats.
Some think public flats are cheap, some think affordable.
Some think this is the best the govt can do to help them.
Some are very happy with the state of housing.

What will happen eventually is that all the public flats would be owner occupied by Singaporeans. All the PRs will sell them when the price is high enough, to return to their home countries to buy mansions. Singaporeans will be the final owners of all the highly priced public flats and live in them till the leases expired.

But there is no need to worry. Singaporeans are still rushing to buy properties at whatever prices because property prices can only go up. Those who are coughing out a million dollar for their properties expect the prices to go higher, and higher, and higher. Those who come in to buy from them also expect the prices to go higher and higher, and higher.

This is the level of consciousness of unthinking Singaporeans on what is happening around them. No wonder they need more foreigners to come and help them. No one even consider if the govt has built enough flats for citizens who need one, all the angst could have been gone, and no need to have all the clumsy and painful rules and regulations and all the staff to try to wrangle with them. And no need to wait for 3 to 4 years before a flat is ready.

Given the birth rate of 50,000 and assuming 40% will get married, that is 10,000 units of flats needed annually, and not counting the influx of foreigners in the hundreds of thousands.

Where is the problem or who is causing the problem? And daft Singaporeans are blaming each other for depriving another from buying a public flat.

11/07/2011

Exasperation over stupid housing policies

An article by A Chan in the TOC is the manifestation of so much exasperation over stupid housing policies that have made our very own citizens feeling very frustrated, discriminated and angry with the govt that claimed to be looking after their interests, for their own good.

And many daft Singaporeans are arguing and pulling their hair over why this and why that, why not a bit more or a bit less? They forgot that the whole policy is flawed from its first premise. It was designed on the assumption that they cannot build enough flats for every citizen and therefore have to ration the flats, subsidised the lower income, and not allowing the higher income to buy public flats or compete with the lower income. This is the biggest bull and the biggest myth.

If the premise is that housing is a basic need and everyone needs a roof over his head, and it is the govt’s responsibility to provide this need, then all the silly rules and regulations will become irrelevant instantly.

Hsien Loong is asking the people to give suggestions, to change govt policies that are no longer relevant, or even stupid, then the housing policy is one that need to be buried and forgotten, and get a fresh new start.

Public housing is for the people, regardless of income level, just like NS is for every citizen regardless of his status or background. An NS man, rich or poor, pledges to defend this country and all. He needs at least a home to do that, to have something to protect in the first place.

And why the need to have all the salary ceilings with all the idiotic definitions? Count this don’t count that, commission counted, bonuses not counted. I have heard of cases when on study leave with no pay but a subsistence allowance for several years, HDB still insists on including the pay as the income. Technically, two incomes of $5k will be $10k. When one is on study leave without pay but a small subsistence allowance for several years, the income is really $5k plus the subsistence allowance which will not even touch $8k. But applicant disqualified.

Putting aside the issue of not building enough flats, all young couples need a flat to start their lives. For one reason or another, some delayed in getting married for many years and ended up in a situation when their incomes will exceed whatever ceiling is in place. Some joker blames the young for not planning their marriage and applying for a flat early. This is the most idiotic reasoning coming from the super talents. Not everyone can plan their marriages like planning to have breakfast.

If it is possible that every young couple can get hitched at 25 or the first few years on coming into the job market, then all the ceilings will no longer apply. It is only when they could not get hitch in time that this silly ruling will come in to affect their chances. And because of the unwillingness to build to meet the demands, many could not get their flats in time and by the time they were awarded one, their incomes could exceed the ceiling and be disqualified as well.

Back to my main point, the govt must build enough flats for all first timers regardless of their income level. This is a basic and primary need to start a family, to start a life. Failing to do this is a failure on the govt’s part to provide for the people. There could be some rules to keep public housing from being abused, like owners of private properties. Other than some major exclusions, all citizens must be entitled to buy their first flats and income should not be a determinant of their eligibility or the types of flats they can or cannot buy.

The govt’s key responsibility is to house its citizens. How much the citizens want to pay, what type of flats they need should be left to the discretion of the people. Maybe qualification against those who wants to buy beyond their means. Definitely not to force anyone to buy beyond their means.

Housing needs not be such a pain if the govt just build and this will remove all the frustrations that the people are facing because of the flawed assumptions in the housing policies. Or is this a sacred cow that cannot be slewed?

Happy Hari Raya Haji to all muslims.