Property prices, an exercise in illusion

We have this property frenzy turning more crazier by the days. How much of this is real and how much are concocted to give the impression of real demand and real affordability? The ST carries several pages today with two conflicting views, that property prices are really affordable and with some cautioning that a bubble is in the building and we will have our property crisis like the US in the next economic downturn. Would we hear some sensible words of advice on this happy tragedy that is waiting to happen, or everyone is happily playing the monopoly game? A report by Citigroup economist Kit Wei Zheng said that prices at 19 times are now more affordable compare to the 40 times annual income of 1996. It is a relative game. From 40 times to 19, everyone should be cheering and rushing to get one unit. It is less than half price! The crazy and irresponsible thing is to let this go on and on. In fact it was utmost irresponsibility to let prices shot up to 40 times the annual income of the buyer at the average Singaporean level. But no one cares. Ahhh, caveat emptor. Nothing can be done. It is all good business and individual responsibility, and free market. Wny are we so concerned about people gambling in the casinos? Take a 20 year annual income as an example. It would mean that the buyer would need to pay every cent of his income for 20 years to fully pay up for the unit. And this also isn't true as the mortgage plus interest for 20 years will easily work out to be double the amount, ie, he needs to pay for 40 years instead, every single cent. Let's say that he uses half of his income to service the loan, wow, does it mean that it will take him 80 years to do so? Ok, double income family. So maybe 40 years to pay up. Still sounds good, provided neither of them loses his/her job. Then the increments and promotions along the way will make the repayment much easier. But still a 30 to 40 year repayment and a sum that is not small. In 1975 a semi D cost only 2 years of annual income, a 5rm HDB flat cost slightly more than 1 year annual income. That was why those who bought into properties then could sit on huge profits from asset appreciation. With today's prices, is there going to be a profit at the end of 30 years? We are assuming that many Singaporeans are rich and able to afford such properties looking at the attendance in property launches. We are also assuming that many Singaporeans in the future will be able to pay double the current prices if the present day properties are going to appreciate in value. What is very likely to happen is that in the next 10 to 20 years, there are bound to be several economic turmoils along the way, and people paying high prices and servicing high mortgages are going to be hanged for sure. For the time being, enjoy the party...if it is for real. Let's see who ends up with the baby when the music stops.

Time for celebration

Singapore is officially the 2nd most expensive Asian city after Tokyo. Bring me my wine, or champagne better, for such a great achievement. And with our salaries also at record high, property prices at record high, Singaporeans are a lucky lot to be able to afford such high living. How do I conclude so? No Singaporean is complaining. So all is fine. And foreigners are flocking here in bigger numbers, all laughing to the banks. There are plenty of money everywhere. A modern day Eden.

High faluting ideas to be demolished

I have glanced through a few papers and blogs and they were all talking about high faluting ideas and these need to be demolished. Now what is a high faluting idea? I search the web and found this: Meaning: (Regional slang) 1. Highly pompous, bombastic (speech). 2. Showing off, ostentatious, pretending to be above one's station in life, putting on airs. Ya, I agree. All high faluting ideas must be demolished. Which one? Anyone comes across any high faluting ideas, please tell me. PS. An idea that is faluting or not is very subjective. It all depends on who is saying what.

Cyberspace state of health

Or shall I call it freedom of speech? Between a communist giant like China and a democratic island like Singapore, I think it is quite shameful if we are to compare the freedom of speech between the two. Mind you, they have demonstrations every frequently. And I am not referring to those in Xinjiang but in Beijing and Shanghai. Back to freedom of speech. The first thought is that we must be much freer, and our bloggers must be blogging themselves crazy with a diverse spread of views, pro and anti establishment. In reality, the country that is freer in terms of blogging and expressing of views is China. Cannot be? In a comment in the editorial of the ST on the topic of India and China relations, the editor said this, '...few Indians know that there are millions of Chinese bloggers who express themselves freely and fearlessly.' The we look at our own cyberspace and netizens and ask ourselves, who can be qualified as 'blogging freely and fearlessly'? If there are such animals, they are probably blogging from overseas or found in P65.

Race and Religion the hot topic

After Hsien Loong's ND Rally, race and religion have taken on a higher profile with poeple agreeing that they should be discussed openly and not be tabooed, or fearing that someone will come knocking at your door. The general mood is that it is time for issues of race and religion be discussed. I think before such a great happening becomes a reality, people must accept certain limitations, constraints and ground rules to abide by. It is easy to start talking about them. But it is not easy to close the topic when things get heated up and when young blood or instigators join the fray. Discussing such issues, the demand for maturity, respect, sensitivity and an understanding ear are very high as the views put forth, when the views are true, genuine and from the heart, can be very tough to the wrong listener. In the case of religion, I think it is more difficult as certain doctrines and seeds of division and hatred are already deeply embedded over centuries in religious books. Unless such dangerous views are removed from these books, they will always be used by the wrong group as reasons to fight and kill. For such views and doctrines, which many believers chose to ignore or pretend that they do not exist, are intolerable or breed intolerance of those not of the same sect. Many are outright destructive. Would a revision be done by the wise men of today to erase those words, phrases and doctrines of the ancient and do a cleansing of these old books so that future generations can live in peace without such historical notes to invite them to be intolerable or to kill those who do not subscribe to their beliefs? How real, genuine and sincere can believers be when the doctrines are not of peace, not of tolerance and acceptance of others?

The return of LKY

LKY was in his robust best yesterday in Parliament. He stood up reluctantly to demolish a motion by Viswa Sadasivan calling for more equality among the races. LKY's position is that the Malays were the indigenous people of the land and were protected under Article 152 of the Constitution. Their special privilege and position cannot be removed by equality for all races. He was like a young man, full of fire in his belly despite his age. He stamped his authority and made it very clear that he is still in charge, that he is the boss. And when a difficult situation arises, he will be there. And this is bad. By his strong and persistent presence in Parliament, he has exposed a whopping big hole in the succession formula. Did any of the minister see the dangerous trend that Viswa was pointing? And is there anyone that can stand up and defend the position as robustly as he did, establishing himself as the boss man, to be able to speak in full authority and with that kind of forcefulness of a true leader? My view is that LKY should stay in the background and let the young ministers to take charge and fight their own battle, to be their own men. And he will do them a great favour by not rushing to battle as the point man. He cannot be around forever and it is better that the new leaders establish themselves fast while he is still around to avoid creating a kind of vacuum through the lack of a tested and accepted leader securely in place, one who can speak in authority and people will listen, like listening to him. Many people can see this problem. Unfortunately many wise men will choose to remain reticent and pretend that everything is going just fine.

Regulator did not overpay for MRT doors

This is the heading of an article in the ST today in response to the gripes in cyberspace over the cost of MRT screen doors. The article quoted 3 other sources for comparison. Half height doors 1. SMRT at $65.6k per door 2. Paris at $47k per door 3. Taipei's Danshui/Nangang lines at $84k per door Full height doors 4. Taipei's Neihu Line at $54.7k per door. Just the numbers, Taipei's Danshui/Nangang lines are the most expensive. But these were built in 2006 when material costs were much higher. The other 3 were built around the same period which are better comparison. The Paris line is being built by a Swiss company and their labour and material cost cannot be cheaper than ours. But they are 34.7% cheaper. The Neihu line is full height doors and is still 16.6% cheaper. The best comparison is between the Paris line and ours as the number of doors built are 1992 and 1920 respectively. And both are half height. Length of lines are 10km for Paris and 11km for our MRT. Both are being installed now. The numbers say that we are paying much more than Paris and Neihu lines. True or not?

Fine or jail for putting up tent at Changi

A resident was caught and charged for putting up a tent at Changi beach without a licence. He was fined $800 which he could not afford to pay. Instead he was jailed for 4 days. Wally, I hope it is not you. I am sure you pay for your licence : )

Loan sharks still a problem here!

It was a problem. Now it is a scourge of the land. What happens, haven't the men in blue been chasing after them all these while? Oh, they are now very sophisticated. Maybe even smarter than our men in blue. So it is difficult to deal with them or wipe them out. I can't imagine how the home team is going to deal with the big syndicates when the IRs are operating if they can't even handle the loanshark problem. Maybe the loan shark syndicates also send their key personnel on scholarships to Harvard and Cambridge to outsmart our brightest. It is now a talent versus talent game. Wait till the IRs are open and we will have another new ball game.

The remarkable Garden of Eden

What are the great things in the Garden of Eden. One thing for sure, man was innocent, so innocent that he went about naked without knowing it, thus knowing no shame. And his job was to tend the garden dutifully, knowing no right and no wrong. In other words man shall be unthinking. And he must be kept that way, for he was forbidden to know, not allowed to eat from the Tree of Knowledge. God did not want man to know too much, not to be as clever as him. There was also the Tree of Life, and man must not eat from it to live forever, like God. The line between man and God is very clear. The essence of the Garden of Eden is that man shall live there happily doing his part, tending the orchard. It was a life of blissful ignorance, and be like a worker. Thinking is not needed, everything will be taken care of. Leave the thinking to God. And God has all things planned, with all his wise schemes. And when man tries to be too smart, to be like God, he shall be banished from the Garden forever. Just follow orders and man will be ok. The Garden shall be guarded by a cherubim and a flaming sword to keep those banished from returning. How many of you would like to live a life of contentment in the Garden of Eden, full of ignorant bliss and no worries? And mind you, there is a paternalistic God looking after all your needs. Sorry Tommy. We are no Venice or Geneva. We are Eden.

We are short of doctors!

Our university can only produce 200 doctors annually. And the supply of doctors is anaemic, must be affected by our 2 child policy that we cannot produce more doctors. Or all the straight As and straight Bs students were not good enough. So now we are recruiting doctors by the planeloads from third world countries or doctors with degrees from third world countries. Our medical facilities have been expanding in leaps and bounds. Our needs for doctors, nurses and other medical professionals must also increase. Somehow I got the impression that nobody notice this. And now we have to import all the great doctors from all over the world. Actually hor, if we know we need so many doctors hor, we can increase the intake of medical students hor, then we got no doctor no enough problem you know. QED.

First MRT, next trains, then roads

The great success in saving lives at MRT station with the erection of screen doors has spawned more great ideas about saving lives at railway tracks. The open railway tracks are even more hazardous as no one will be there to watch over those careless souls wandering into the tracks. And the trains are so difficult to spot, probably installed with stealth capability that they cannot be seen or heard. The trains will creep up quietly to mow down anyone found on the tracks. In the My Paper today, there were many good suggestions on how to make the railway tracks safe for people or jaywalkers. Instal barriers, fences, electronic devices or maybe human patrols to keep people out of the tracks. But no one is suggesting the $126m screen doors. Ok, maybe they know that it is expensive. The most relevant and practical solution is like what Matilah suggested, barbwires, cheap, good and efficient. And this can also be used later when they want to keep the roads safe as well. I remember watching a CNA programme of a train driving through the heart of a market place in one of the Asian cities. Before the train arrives, goods and people were all milling and scattered along the tracks. But the surprising thing is that without any signal or any electronic devices to warn the people and stall holders, at certain specific moments, they will remove everything from the railway track and the train will pass by uneventfully. Once the train has left, the track and its surrounding will be packed with goods, carts and people again. The strange thing is that nobody will be run over by the train. Even in our backyard, there used to be squatters with their huts along side the railway tracks. Amazing that no one got run over by the trains. Wonder how such a miracle could exist for so long without casualties. Can we learn something from these unsophisticated natives?

Myth 208 - Foreigners taking over jobs and housing

These seem to be the standard complaints of Singaporeans. They are taking over our jobs and our flats. Now, are these happy or unhappy problems? Sell your homes to the suckers. Make them pay you a ransom for them. And with that kind of money, who needs a job, or who needs to work? Pack up and go to Lijiang and enjoy the life of an emperor. Why work, why coop up in a pigeon hole when the whole expanse of mother earth is there for your enjoyment? What are Singaporeans complaining? And there are many Lijiangs around the world where our strong dollar can be converted to buy anything. Singaporeans should seize the opportunity to upgrade their lives instead of thinking of working till they drop dead. Think laterally, think of better alternatives. Ahhhh Lijiang is beckoning. And they will do Singapore a big favour by helping it to renew itself with young and vibrant talents.

Happy like Fxxk feeling (pardon my lingo)

This is the impression one gets of all the PRs and new citizens here. How could they not be happy when they waltzed into a banquet hall with a big buffet spread awaiting them. And many were hungry and have never tasted such goodies before, or be in a posh banquet hall to be served. When people are happy because of goodies, beware. When the goodies are not there anymore, the happy faces may turn ugly. There are many goodies for the PRs and new citizens. And PRs and new citizens will become citizens and pay the price for being citizens. Membership has its obligations. OK the lucky guys are the PRs forever, enjoying the best of both worlds. You see, our system caters to impress the newcomers, not so much of the citizens. As citizens there are commitments, including your money in the lockups. When the new citizens realise what is happening, they are not going to be happy like fxxk anymore. They will be whining like the old citizens.

National Day Rally 2009

The most impressive part of the rally must be the last video clip on the future Marina Bay area. It is a future worth looking forward to. With its completion, we will really transform into another level of economic progress. During the National Day Parade I was staring at the diminutive Asia Insurance Building, once upon a time the tallest building in the island. Today it is dwarfed by its undescribed neighbours, everyone towering above it by twice its height. And the new Marina Bay area is another leap ahead from the present waterfront at Raffles Place and Shenton Way. I could imagine myself strolling along the Sands IR and enjoying the great sights and the richness of the surrounding. Then I wonder if I can afford the luxury within. Or maybe I shall join Wally and pitch tent at Changi Beach where the air is free, the stars and the views are free. Easier on the pocket. Our infrastructure will be first class. The several MRT lines that will complete the transport grid will make moving around so convenient, if one can afford it. Come to think of it, travelling to Changi to pitch tent by MRT is not going to be cheap. What is needed but missing in the rally speech is how to upgrade the pay check of the average Singaporeans. Can the pay check be bigger to meet the higher cost that is expected in a first class city living? Or shall the people be told to spend within their means, and join Wally? I have a better idea. I will turn myself into a professional gambler to qualify for a VIP card, free room and services and free food. I don't have to step out of the Marina Bay area anymore. Just live in the IR, for free. With my miserable income which I can confidently said is at least 3 or 4 times what Wally is getting, or more if he is a pensioner, I still think I will not be able to afford that kind of luxury. Now, for all the pensioners and would be pensioners, unless they have a couple of millions in their savings to last 20 or 30 years, they better find a job that will keep them employed till they are 70 or 80. Retirement or unemployment is no longer an option, but for the yodas. Yes, Hsien Loong did show a pic of Yoda in his presentation.

Influx of foreign talents, good or bad?

1/3 of our population are foreigners and we are crying out for more. The mantra, they will help to grow our economy, our saviours. Is growing our economy the only reason for us to live by at the risk of undermining what we have built for the last 40 years? Nation building does not come easy and is still a work in progress. We have seen some results. But it is going into the oven again. How so? Our problem is our size. People may accuse those who want to slow down this process of globalisation for being small minded, xenophobic, short sighted, small town mentality. But before we throw the baby out with the water, let's think again and look at where we are to start with. Can we afford to have such a huge influx of foreigners in our midst in so short a span of time? According to demographic projections, Europe will be an Islamic region in 50 years when the muslim immigrants will form the majority of the European population. And Europe is a region of mature countries and civilisations and could not resist from being adulterated by new immigrants. We are only 3m people in a small island. As someone has said, our boundaries can be defined by the SLE, AYE, PIE and KJE. That is how big we are. A pail of shit into an ocean would not mean a thing. But a cup of shit into a pail of water will definitely change the content of the water. For 40 years we have striven hard to build a Singaporean identity, where the citizens associate themselves with this piece of rock and call it home. Now we are saying, let's start it all over again with new immigrants and new citizens. My reservation is that instead of we absorbing the new citizens and their traits and baggages and making them one of us, we may be absorbed by them when we become a minority. It can be good, but it can be disastrous to what we have being trying to build all these years. The conquerers of China and India were absorbed into these two huge and old civilisations. The conquerers of America vanquished the locals and change the landscape into something else. The change was good in the economic sense. To the locals, it can be anything but good. We are too small and the risk of rapid change will have its untold price. We will only see the consequences in 20, 30 or 50 years.

The people were delirious

Big savings come with new hospital subsidy plan. Since July, the 3 tier hospital subsidies of 25, 50 and 75% have been changed to an 8 tier plan ranging from 10 to 75% depending on the family income levels. This means that some patients that were cut off by the 3 tier plan could now enjoy a higher level of subsidies. And they were delirious as they could now save several hundreds or thousands of dollars from the medical bills. Wow. This is the good news part. The bad news part is that some hospitals had already raised their fees because of increased in operation costs and ‘patients had to pay between $300 to $1,500 more for a typical month long stay in the subsidised 8 bed wards.’ LPPL.

How much it costs for a screen door?

A $126m contract to instal screen doors for 36 MRT stations was awarded to ST Electronics and this has resulted in several discussions in cyberspace, all trying to guess how much is the cost of a screen door. The numbers vary from $60k to $100k per door. Let me try another guess. Each train has 6 cars with 2 doors each on either side, and only one side of the doors will be in operation at the station. And with 36 stations with one platform each with two sides, the number of screen doors should be 6 x 2 x 36 x 2 = 864. This works out to be $145.8k per door. If we add 2 more platforms for the interchanges at Jurong East and Tanah Merah, assuming each has 2 platforms instead of 1, then the additional number of platforms shall be 48, giving a grand total of 912. The cost of each screen door shall be $138k. Now, I think I am right on this number and any variation will be due to stations with more than one platform that are not accounted for and can be adjusted accordingly. So at $138k per screen door, this amount could actually buy a Mercedes Benz or a new 3 rm HDB flat in the new towns. In other words the $126m can buy 912 Mercedes Benz or 912 3rm HDB flats. The screen doors are indeed a little costly right? Correction. There are 24 doors on each side of a train instead of 12 doors as computed above. 4 per car instead of 2. Thus the cost per screen door should be halved, ie $69k. This is close to the actual number given by LTA at $65,600.

Growing numbers, louder voices, bigger demands

1/3 of our population are non Singaporeans. And if we are to maintain our economic growth rate, more will be coming in and we may have 2/3 non Singaporeans in a matter of time. And as their importance grow, and as we become more dependent on their presence and contributions, like a drug addiction, we will need them more. Singaporeans should lay down the red carpet and welcome them with a big hug. And it is quite disheartening to read about the neglect and problems faced by the foreigners, from a place for their children in our schools and their difficulties in communications in public places. They need translators to read menus and order food. How can this be? Their discomfort is our loss if they choose to go somewhere else. Look at the positive side, more foreigners means more demand for housing and our flats will appreciate in value. They will pay quadruples to buy our HDB flats and we can then upgrade to smaller but more expensive private apartments. There will be more demands for more facilities and services and these will help to generate more economic activities and growth. Maybe our taxi drivers will be happier with more foreign commuters. They will provide more and better quality labour at cheaper cost. Singaporeans will all benefit from their contributions. Singaporeans can provide more services to these richer foreigners, renting out their rooms if not selling the whole flats, set up food courts, laundry shops, retail shops or whatever shops, as housing agents etc to support them and making a profit from such economic activities. It is a win win situation. For Singaporeans who cannot see the goodness of more foreigners coming here and growing the economy, it is better that they pack up and go somewhere else. The foreigners are like our customers and deserve to be treated like our customers, to be served well, to be pampered, if we want their money and talent. A good place for unhappy Singaporeans is Lijiang in China or a similar place in India. Cheap and good, and they will treat you like we treat our foreigners, at least until your money runs out.

Making money above ethical considerations

We need ethical leadership. We need ethical management. We need ethical business practices. Making money at all cost, with no regards to ethics will make us look no different from the loan sharks, the pimps, the gambling den operators or prostitutes. The fact that I have to post this means that unethical leadership, management and business practices are prevalent in our system. The minibond fiasco and other unfair practices in the financial system, the fraudulent practices and corruption in public and charitable organizations, are only the tip of the iceberg. Everyone knows but no one is talking. Anyone who dares claim that he does not know is either pretending or lying. Do we have people with the guts to stamp out such violations of ethics and human decency in our organisations ? There are some individuals who are in very privileged positions to do so, to stand up against this degeneration in ethical standards in our system. Sadly, they are not doing anything, probably enjoying the ride. Has anyone learn anything from the recent fiascos and big sums of money lost, with many people at the brink of suicide for losing their life savings, for blindly following the American schemes and scams engineered by the Ivy League graduates? They are no better than the scams of loan sharks. When will we start to think, to question how we make money, whether the business model is ethical and fair to customers, to employees and to associates and shareholders? Or shall we just exploit the weak and the small, grab their money and run without feeling any guilt? While Hsien Loong would have his plate full with many hot issues in his National Day speech, I hope he will touch on the subject of ethics and moral responsibility in corporate practices, including ministries and govt linked organisations. We need moral leadership to bring back ethical conducts and human decency in the pursuit of profits and doing businesses. And actions are needed, not just motherhood statements.