9/11/2009
Anti Jews tattoo
Malaysia has its cow head stomping incident. We have our 'Anti Jews' tattoo incident. In our case it was a guy with a tattoo 'Anti Jews' done on his face. And he was charged in court for hitting a Jew. He really did that.
Such anti racial or religious acts did not happen out of the blue. The govt has a prominent role to send the right message out, that it would not tolerate such acts and behaviours. Any govt that takes a partial attitude towards such infringements will only encourage and breed more of such behaviours. Any infringement of such a nature must be nipped in the bud and the law coming down hard on the culprits. The message must be loud and clear. By the way, how could someone wearing such a tattoo on his face in Singapore and get away with it? Nobody notices it?
It is good that the Malaysian govt has taken action to charge those who were involved in the cow head stomping incident. If they continue to protect the culprits, more racial hatred will flare up. Now the whole community will be watching the case and see how partial or impartial will be the court's judgement.
9/10/2009
The Age of Demonising over?
During the cold war period the western powers and their media went on a tenacious campaign to demonise anything Communist, Russian or China as bad, demons, devils, destructive, terror, evil or whatever that is negative. This went on for more than half a century till today. There is a little easing off lately with the fall of the Soviet Union and the emergence of a capitalist China. The demonising is still going on.
The events following the publishing of the book Men In White could be an indication that the Age of Demonising your enemies or opponents is slowly coming to an end. Or will it be?
Our general election is around the corner. The opposition political parties are not in the same league of the Communists and the Barisan Socialists. They are more like any other ordinary citizens. Would they be subject to the kind of demonising to discredit them as reasonable people unworthy to be elected as the people's representatives in Parliament?
For that matter, why are cyberspace and alternative media being regarded in the likes of dissidents or anti establishment parties, an evil force that must be watched like a hawk and if possible nabbed and put into cold storage? I seem to have this impression, rightly or wrongly, that this is the sentiment. Is it true or just my imagination? Are they that dangerous, that destructive?
By the way, alternative parties are just groups of individuals offering an alternative to run the country and not gangsters or mobs or triads or demons. They need to be treat respectfully as any deserving citizens, in fact better, for their noble intention to serve the people and nation. There are thugs, rogues and scoundrels in their midst, possible. In fact these undesirable elements are present in all corners of society, among the elite as well.
Will we see the passing of the Age of Demonising? Or calling people names, branding people as bad, etc etc is still a way of protecting ones own self interest. They are bad, we are good!
The fragility of our stock market
Yesterday was the 10th anniversary of the SGX and it was all celebration and a job well done. Everyone was given a pat on the back for their contributions to the success and growth of the SGX from 500 companies to more than 700 companies. And we are now recognised as a serious international player.
The success of a stock market depends on many factors, the system and administrator, the products and the players. I have dealt with some of the problems of system flaw in the past, especially the uneven playing field which I still find it unacceptable and unfair to the small players. I will now briefly touch on the products and players in the market.
Other than our local companies, we have introduced stocks from some 20 companies as proof of our progress in internationalising our stock market. I wonder how many of these stocks are being traded and worth the cost of having them listed in our market. The more glaring issue is the S Chips. These came in to replace the Malaysian CLOB when Mahathir threw in the spanner. Are we better off? Or are the investors better off? Do we get more money for the investors or more outflow of our hard earned money with a net loss due to frauds and misrepresentation? What is the bottom line?
The players in our market are the big foreign funds, local broking houses, small and big local investors, and the increasing role of remisiers own trading. The foreign funds come and go, some short term, some trading furiously like the small traders or worst, with programme trading to scalp whatever they can from the market. Both the funds and broking houses are taking full advantage of their low cost, ie, practically no commission to trade against the small investors. Who will win in such a game is obvious.
With commission dwindling to a level that it is no longer worth the risk exposure, many remisiers are resorting to their own trading. Why risk thousands or hundreds of thousands of dollars for a $20 or $200 commission. The mistakes are very costly and so are bad debts. Not many people understand the role of remisiers and how unfair is the system towards them.
With a small population of active investors, the market is just unsustainable without the remisier acting as a multiplier through their role as the guarantor and money lender to the investors. No banks will take such risk and exposure with minimal or no collateral. The alternative is not to allow such risk and exposure in the system, which means the market will practically come to a standstill, with negligible trading activities.
There was a myth that with the introduction of internet trading, there is no need for this middleman. This has proven drastically wrong as the cost to maintain such a system negates the pittance returns from the traders. How many employees can actually trade online when they are working in their offices? The big players have no time to stick to a computer terminal when a phone call is all they need to do.
How long can the remisiers continue to trade on their own and to make money out of the system is an issue that will soon play itself out. The recent mini bullrun is an aberration. In most instances, the remisiers are losing their pants because of the uneven playing field and programme trading. Now there are things like dark pool, preview of trading data, speed trading etc which all favours the big players.
Assuming that the pool of remisiers find that they cannot win in such a market and call it a day, assuming that no contra trading is available as there is no remisier to be the middleman to act as guarantor to pay for the bad debt, how active can our market be? Will the big funds still be here when the small investors are no longer there to be scalped?
Is our market sustainable in the long run with such a small pool of traders and with increasing number of stocks and derivatives being introduced into the market?
9/09/2009
Myth 210 - Singapore Govt's money is not the people's money?
Letter To The Wall Street Journal, 8 Sep 2009
Correcting Temasek Misperceptions
We wish to correct some fundamental misperceptions in your Aug. 31 editorial "Temasek's Revised Charter."
First, Temasek is an investment company set up as an asset owner to seek returns by taking investment risks. While our sole shareholder is the Singapore government, we are not a "fund," and do not manage Singapore "citizens' earnings." It is factually wrong to imply that Singaporeans have no choice but to "keep their money with the fund."
The above is part of a statement by Temasek's MD Corporate Affairs to the Wall Street Journal. To be specific, it says that it manages Singapore's govt's money and not Singapore "citizens' earnings". I am not sure if Singapore "citizens' earnings" is the same as Singapore citizens' money. As a layman, I think the citizens of Singapore will think or believe that the Govt's money is the citizens' money. But many in the forum have told me that this is not true.
I think the Govt's money are money from the Govt's income, including taxes, rentals, sales of land and properties, services etc. Technically, they are not the citizens's earnings but the Govt's earnings.
Let me offer another example to clarify this explanation. If I lend $1k to A and B lend the $1k to C, C is right to say that he is not spending my money. Cause he borrows it from B and is accountable to B.
So Temasek is managing the Govt's money, not the people's earnings. Right.
Notable quotes by Jim Rogers
"They have more than doubled the American national debt in one weekend for a bunch of crooks and incompetents. I'm not quite sure why I or anybody else should be paying for this." Jim Rogers
Who are these incompetents and crooks? These are people who churned out corporate profits in the billions when the organisations are technically bankrupts. And mind you, they are the supertalents from the top notch universities. And they do not know that they have done wrong. And they are demanding the same crazy pay and bonuses again.
You don't need crooks and robbers when you have them around. And they are much more greedy and deadlier. They have no shame, no sense of moral justice. They only demand a ransom from the organisations and shareholders.
SCCCI broke its silence
The Singapore Chinese Chamber of Commerce and Industry has joined the debate over the lack of linguistic skills of foreign immigrants working in the sales industry. Many forum letter writers have written to the media to complain about this lack of English Language skill and some even suggested that people who can't speak English should not be allowed here.
Ah, it brings back memories of the good old days when a pass in English is the key condition for a job in the colonial civil service. I think it is a good idea to make English proficiency a criteria for employment here. Maids, construction workers, sales staff etc and who else to include in this category? Employers must be fuming mad.
It will give life to a new industry in language learning, and more private language schools to come into this new business.
Resurrection of the 'Demons' In White
The book Men In White has the inadvertent consequence of bringing together the political foes of our freedom fighter generation. These were the people who fought the British for independence and later fighting among themselves for political supremacy. There was a contest of will, political ideologies and beliefs. They fought and threw punches at each other, or they fought, and one side received all the punches and black eyes, and were demonised, captured or fled the country. Many never ever dream of a homecoming unless they recant their 'wrong doings'.
Yesterday many returned. For those who were biting their nails and waiting to see these men with horns on their foreheads, they were disappointed. They came and appeared like ordinary men, with a tie. There were no signs of the terrorists or rugged guerilla fighters left in them. Fighting for political powers in those days were really fighting for life and death, unlike today when fighting for more money, status and power was the order of the day.
It is good that old men and women should put down their swords and cudgels and shake hands and call each other friends. It is good to let the bad memories fade into history. Yes, bury the hatchet and embrace one another as old friends. If we can embrace strangers and new immigrants as one of us, there is no reason not to welcome home our brothers and sisters of the past to live among us. A first step forward to more graciousness.
The next question is whether the political climate and rules of the game be changed as we move forward. Or would it be just a flash in the pan and things will return to normal, and the weapons be strapped back around the waist, the cudgels in hand, ready to deliver the next deadly blow?
9/08/2009
CPF Life the best scheme
The CPF Life annuity scheme is the best scheme that the govt can think of. I won't disagree with that. For many who are unable to manage their forced savings, they definitely need another forced annuity scheme to carry on the trend of being forced to look after themselves.
With so many enquiries, the CPF Life scheme is expected to robe in many more contributors, especially with the carrot of a $4,000 bonus for those who are not forced to sign on. I will encourage all those who need someone to manage their money to sign on too. This leaving your money to other people to manage is becoming a Singaporean habit, a Singaporean trait.
For me, no way. I will never sign on anything that has a 'forced element' in it. I am very capable of taking care of myself and my money. It is such a great feeling to touch the money inside your pocket and say, 'Yes, it is my money. It is real. And I can do whatever I want with it, any time any place.'
Mine is just a personal preference. Actually, with such a great scheme, if it is that good, people will be queuing to sign up, like property launches. No need compulsion. They will queue over night for it too. Community Clubs can help by providing buses to fetch them to CPF Board. Maybe not necessary if they can sign up in the Clubs themselves.
Should CPF Board try this and see how many will queue to sign up for this great scheme?
9/07/2009
Do banks have the ammo to fight frauds
This headline in the ST reminds me of the realisation in the European community of the real robbers that are robbing the people. Before I go on, the article in the ST was about banks trying to curb credit card frauds and limiting the liabilities of card holders.
The European concern that was taken up by their Finance Ministers at the G20 was about the disproportional ransoms that the bankers are extorting from the banking industries. They reminded the ministers at the meeting that even before the financial crisis is over the bankers are paying themselves the crazy bonuses that they were getting before.
And the Americans are not going with the Europeans as the main culprits are the American bankers themselves. These robbers are robbing their shareholders of hundreds of millions each, individually and annually. How on earth could they justify their abilities to earn that kind of money? With or without them, with a new team in charge, their banks are going to do just as fine, or just as badly. Many were managed to the brink of bankruptcies, or were bankrupts and needed govt and public funds to save them.
The read fraudsters that are cheating the minority shareholders are the bankers themselves, and the CEOs of MNCs where the minority shareholders are helpless while the management just write their own pay checks, and pay themselves crazy.
Do we need to look anywhere for fraudsters? Oh, pardon me, I am referring to European and American bankers and MNC CEOs, those who took tens or hundreds of millions. And it is not just the CEOs, it is the whole management team and board of directors. All are in it. It is a case of I pay you and you pay me, I approve your pay and you approve mine.
9/06/2009
Bird watching
I went on a bird watching trip recently, armed with binoculars and camera, to watch and count the number of birdies in our little island. Many of the old birdies have disappeared. The merboks, the magpies, the Mynars, the nectar feeders etc. Even the sparrows, the most populous and in every roof corners, are hardly seen today.
We were briefed that the bird population has grown with more sanctuaries being set aside as protected territories for migratory birds to nest here. So we counted all day long. As usual, the mynars and sparrows were few. But the numbers of crows, egrets, green pigeons, herons and many that were rarely seen in our island, non residents, are setting roots here and making our sanctuaries their homes.
A thought came to my mind. One day we may see Singaporeans lugging their binos and digiphones in the city looking for Singaporeans and counting Singaporeans. The Singaporeans have gradually become a rare specie, and it takes effort to find them in the crowds of foreigners. There may be conducted tours with well informed tour guides leading groups to look out for Singaporeans. They will be armed with knowledge on Singaporean behavioral patterns, eating habits, slangs, dressing and their favourite haunts, what to look out for to separate them from the foreigners or new Singaporeans.
And I think this will become a new industry. Conducted tours for Singaporean watching, and counting.
The wooden story revives
‘I was a block of wood. So? It was the truth.’ This story is immortalised in the Men In White book. How many political leaders would take such a comment in a public address standing up? Chok Tong did, standing 6 ft 4in tall. And he not only admitted that he was wooden, he could joke about it too. That is the kind of leader we have and the people love him for it. His ministers continued to support him. He is the most likeable PM so far.
And because of the public dressing, he became a better man, more uninhibited and improved on his public image and public speaking. In other words, less wooden. And he got LKY to thank for.
In LKY is another quality of leadership unseen anywhere. His lecture is always well regarded by friends and foes. Chok Tong became a leader and his own man and accepted the comment though stunned for a while. Recently we have another grateful recipient of his lecture in Parliament. After his robust reply to newbie NMP Sadasivan, the latter was thankful, like a student attending a lecture in the university once again. And we can see him learning and gaining from it and become a better man in the future
This is the unique quality of LKY. He can tell anyone off and the recipients felt very grateful for the lesson, for he meant well. ‘He’s not a man to slam you for nothing. He was never personal.’ Said Chok Tong. Imagine another leader coming out and make such a comment on anyone, the reception is not going to be the same. There were several instances, some in Parliament, and I don’t think the recipients were grateful for the dressing down. Maybe some PMs may learn this trick from LKY and make public assessments of his cabinet ministers in the future, if he is LKY calibre.
Anyway, what’s wrong with being called wooden when there is real substance. The number one golfer’s official name is Woods, Tiger Woods. And no one is disturbed by that name. Who knows, the next headline when Tiger wins another tournament may be ‘The Wood is on top again!’
9/05/2009
"Affordable" in inverted commas
The ST reported on the new launch of another condominium in the Gillman Height site and the "affordable" prices that are being offered. A 2-rm 75 sq m unit is priced at $700k or about $1000 psf. When words are bracket by inverted commas, it is clear that the meaning is suspect. Affordable or affordability is now a misleading term, depending on who is using it and the listener. It used to be the belief that when something is said often enough and repeated loud enough, people will come to accept it as the truth. Unfortunately these two words have developed into some kind of ill repute. People no longer believe in them.
What if affordable is mixed up with heavy subisidies, with willing buyer willing seller, with market pricing? How believeable and affordable can it be? Could the people uttering affordable really and sincerely believe in what they are saying? I do. Anyone who cannot afford to pay $700k in their lifetime(two incomes) for a roof over their head is unfit to live in paradise when people could easily earn $1m in a year.
There is a spurious outpouring of unhappiness over the usage of the word afforable and the basis or formula use to define what it is in the ST forum today. And this is only the tip of the iceberg. We do not know how many letters have been sent to the ST before a few were printed. And the angry cries in cyberspace would probably not be heard, so not counted.
As long as the affected people chose to keep quiet, the few voices heard would be read as too little to warrant any serious attention. Unless the voice is loud enough, spoken often and with more anger, no one is going to listen and people will conclude that 'see, no protest, so no problem'.
The affordability index is so perfectly calibrated that the people are happy with it. And the properties, private and public, are selling like hot cakes. The demands are evidence to prove that it is right. Does anyone ask how many of the visitors in property launches are paid to be there or how many units are actually booked by the agents themselves to give the impression of strong demand? And how many are booked by speculators?
9/04/2009
Myth 209 - Fiction of succession planning
We are renowned for our ability to plan a head. And corporate succession planning must be a piece of cake. Failure to work out such a simple plan will be sorely felt and seen as simply incompetent. Or is there a better expression, inability to plan, forget to plan, dunno how to plan, or simply no time to plan, but pretend that it was all planned?
We have seen many several CEOs departing and then we hear a big announcement, the organisation is searching around the globe for a successor. And the process will take another few months or years.
What is succession planning? Didn't the CEO has someone standing by that can take over should he gone missing? Or our organisations are so dearth of CEO potential that whenever a CEO departs, someone outside must be brought in? This has been the case, it seems.
All the bullshitting about succession planning are now laid bare for all to see. There is no succession planning, or there is no one within the organisation that is fit to succeed the CEO. What a pathetic state of affair!
The reassurance Singaporeans needed
Catherine Lim's question to LKY during the dialogue at the LKY School of Policy inadvertently led to the revelation and reassurance of the resilience and ruggedness of our political system and govt infrastructure. This will be PAP's legacy and achievement for the people and country.
In his reply to Catherine, LKY assured her that in the event of a freak election result that threw out the PAP, the army will not move in. The second assurance is that we have an excellent checks and control system underpinned by our elected President system and this will protect the country's reserve from a scoundrel govt. Feeling better already.
The other assurance that was implicit is that our political system will withstood any changes of govt, and even if an opposition comes into power, the political system and govt will continue to run. It will be tragic if after operating a govt and political system for 45 years the country will turn into turmoil just because a new political party is elected into office. A democratic electoral system and govt must be designed for govt change, peacefully by the electoral proceses. And PAP has ensured that the system holds.
This is just like succession planning. An organisation must be able to continue to run when the leadership is changed and not collapsed. Any responsible CEO must always prepare the next man to step into his shoe should he need to vacate the position for any reason. Sadly, many big organisations are failing in this area. And when the top guy falls, there will start running around looking for a successor. What a joke.
Back to the resilience of our govt and political system. With the assurance given, does it mean that the electorate can now be confident to go ahead and elect a new party to power? Does it mean that the system will still work and will not collapse? The assumption of course is that the electorate is also smart enough not to elect a bunch of idiots or scoundrels to form the govt.
Assuming that the opposition parties are able to put up a slate of professionals, I mean professionals and respectable individuals, no need scholar calibre, and they be elected to govt, will the change be just a normal process without big upheavals? Japan has done that and its system is holding, it is not collapsing when a new and inexperience team of politicians are taking over.
We will have to see whether the strength of our system is real or a myth when that day comes.
9/03/2009
Proud to be a Malay Singaporean
This is an article by Khartini Khalid who is pursuing a master's degree in international relations at The Fletcher School, Tufts University. The Fletcher School is renowned for International Relations courses and to be there is itself an accomplishment. I can understand why Khartini felt proud, as an individual and as a Malay Singaporean. She has proven that the Mahathir Myth that Malays are less equal than other racial groups wrong.
Khartini told the story of her research project which took her to a Malay village in Negri Seremban. In those few days she discovered how different the Malays in Singapore were from the Malays in Malaysia. The social and political space they live and operate were distinctly different. In Malaysia, different races still live in their own communal quarters while in Singapore, the official policy is to mix the people to avoid a concentration of races in their respective corners.
Malaysia and Singapore race relations have developed from these different footings and we can be proud that racial tension has eased off in our case but remains more or less the same in Malaysia since 1969. The whole social/economic and political system in Malaysia revolves around race and Malay dominance, and a govt that promotes superiority of a racial group. In Singapore, racial equality is in our constitution, though an aspiration, nonetheless, the govt takes tremendous effort to prevent race biased tension among the people.
Which is a better system is subjective. But one point I like to comment on is that our system will fail miserably if the govt goes about promoting and protecting the interest of one racial group or the majority against the interest of the minority. In fact the govt takes pain to play down on the dominance of the majority group and will come down hard on the majority should it try to exert too much influence or disadvantage the minority. This is the crux of our successful formula. All things being equal, the majority must take a step back to accommodate the minority.
The reverse is true in Malaysia and this has resulted in the majority exerting more and more pressure on the minorities with implicit support from the govt. The latest issue of the stamping of the cow's head during a demonstration and the govt playing down the infringement as a non issue is a case in point. Such blatant disrespect of the minority sensitivity will not be tolerated here and the govt is likely to come down hard on the guilty party.
We have taken different paths in our social, economic and political development of our people. Only time will tell whether ours is a better or poorer model for the people.
Circular reasoning to the rescue
The appointment of Piyush Gupta as CEO of DBS has apparently been warmly received if the reports in the media are to go by. But the underlying sentiment that was not reported but can be sieved through by reading between the lines tells a different picture. This foreign talent fad or infatuation must have stirred the hornet nest of talented locals who see their aspirations being squashed once again. So there must be some way to explain away this great acquisition of a foreign talent that is deemed better than all the useless local talents.
Siow Li Sen wrote that for those who are criticising the recruitment, let there be no worry. Piyush Gupta will become a citizen soon. So he will become a local talent, a Singaporean. How many will lap up this kind of excuse?
And the better part, we went around the world, with high expectations and specifications for the most qualified candidate, with great talent and experience, only to claim that no change is needed in the new job. 'DBS does not need fixing'. No need to take needless risks. Then why can't a local be good enough?
Oh, at home, he has to tackle a mountain of deposits to make them work and to regain Singaporeans' trust in the structured notes fiasco. Do you need a foreign talent to tackle these local issues?
But, like it or not, the die has been cast. Now more analyses and reports on how good this move to hire a foreign talent was will be churned out. The spin doctors will be put to work to appease the hurt ego of the locals. In the meantime, it is better for local talents to find employment in foreign banks to prepare themselves for such jobs.
Decorative kois are for display only. My bet is that our decorative kois are any time of higher quality than these foreign talents if given the opportunities. At least, while in schools and universities, our local talents would have outshone many of the foreign talents. What our local boys lacked are opportunities, exposure and experience. If we don't give these to them, who would?
Landslide or freak election, Army will not move in
Catherine Lim asked LKY yesterday if he would send in the army should there be a freak election. And the answer is no. So opposition parties can feel safer now, that the army would not do the unthinkable, or no one would do the unthinkable.
LKY's reassurance was based on the serious thought that this govt had put in to design a near perfect system with the President as the last man to protect the money in the reserve. The President will be there to block any attempt to spend the reserve, as if this is the only threat to the nation should an opposition party comes to power.
The underlying assumption is that the President is infallible, a man of unquestionable integrity and will not change side and join the new govt to loot the country's coffer. I am not referring to the incumbent President. There are many Presidents that will come our way.
Should Singaporeans sleep well, that this assumption is good enough to save the country when that day comes? If Presidents are immortals or demigods, I think everything will be fine. The only problem is that scoundrels can come and pass themselves off as saints.
Maybe sending in the army is a more pragmatic option.
9/02/2009
DBS netted a Foreign Talent again
Champagne popped yesterday and another round of celebration as DBS announced that it had successfully searched and found another foreign talent to helm the bank. The appointment of Piyush Gupta, a PR, was welcomed as another great achievement and would do DBS a lot of good in its banking business though it also announced that nothing would change and business as usual. There were happy faces everywhere.
The appointment of another PR in the number one govt bank is, sad to say, another confirmation of our failure in nurturing and developing our local talents for the big league. And we have been doing this over and over again for the last few decades and still repeating the same formula without any wiser.
Our local talents that were sent overseas to the best Ivy League universities in the US and Europe are still unfit to be the CEO of a local bank and many of our big organisations. And they will never be, if things are not changed. Our formula is simple. Send our best to foreign universities with a long string attached. On completion of their 4 years of studies, pull the string and haul them back to our little ponds to be fed and grow fat, like the kois. Big and beautiful to look at, full of fat.
And when we need marlins, sharks and whales to swim in the oceans, expectedly none will be fit for the job. So we will forever be dependant on foreign talents to fill jobs that require exposure and experience in the international arena. Our mandarins are experienced only to swim in the little fish ponds. Maybe the 4 years of exposure to the local lifestyle will equip them with enough knowledge to buy kindergartens, theatres, hotels and landed properties. Maybe football clubs with be next.
In contrast, India and some other countries allowed their best to stay on in America and Europe, join the big league MNCs, and grow with them. They were sent to swim the seven seas, brave the storms, and survived, fit and all muscles, to take on the world. It is thus not unexpected for our local organisations with big dreams of going international to be dependant on foreign talents, and forever, if our policy on nurturing and developing our own talents is not changed. We will continue to breed ponds of beautiful and fat kois, but no marlins, no sharks and no whales.
9/01/2009
How China will destroy your retirement
Below is an article by an American and spreading with the help of unthinking Singaporeans to show how bad China is. The fact is that our retirement has been destroyed by America in their subprime fiasco and the financial crisis they have created. Now they are pointing the finger at China.
For goodness sake, stupid Asians and Singaporeans. Think, use your little numbskull before they expired.
How China will destroy your retirement
The Shanghai index just laid a horrible egg. Wall Street fainted and investors world-wide took to the hills.
How could this happen?
1. Loan growth at China’s central bank fell by 80% in the last 30 days.
2. After a spate of frantic buying this spring, China has stopped stockpiling raw materials, which it bought for pennies on the dollar. The Baltic Dry Index has plunged 25% since late July.
3. The massive amounts of cash that Beijing has pumped into its economy has not been properly absorbed. It has hemorrhaged into speculation. That’s why, although profits for China companies are DOWN by 30%, the Shanghai index is UP 80%.
Can you spell BUBBLE?
4. It’s not just stocks, either. The most expensive housing in the world is now in China. Yes, that is correct. The ratio of property prices to income is now SEVEN TIMES HIGHER in China than in the U.S. It looks like the Japanese land bubble in the ’80s, but with one billion people involved this time around.
Can you spell CRASH?
5. On October 1, the China Communist Party holds the 60th anniversary of Mao’s Long March. Expect Beijing to Band Aid this Ponzi scheme together until October. But, as the last few days have shown, the lie cannot last much longer.
WE HAVE 30 DAYS—TOPS.
Urgent You Act
I’m Dick Young and I am convinced that China’s Ponzi Scheme will not work for much longer. And when it crashes to the ground after October 1, look out, because Wall Street goes with it.
Don’t bother looking for your retirement plans in the rubble. They’ll be pulverized.
It does not have to be this way. Indeed, my subscribers have a different plan. We will be very busy over the next 30 days, but it is work that will set us up for life.
We have this great bull story in the media again
We are short of talents. Companies cannot find enough of accountants and finance professionals. And recently we even bragged so loudly that we are recruiting doctors and medical professionals in big numbers from all over the world.
My take is that either our tertiary institutions were are sleeping and not producing enough qualified candidates to feed the needs of the economy, or that our graduates were of no talents and not good enough for the industry. So either we don't have the head counts or plenty of useless, half baked and unemployable graduates.
So, the lack of local talent must be true. All the statistics and surveys say so. What are we going to do about it? Apply the instant tree formula and go and recruit from all over the world, including graduates from third world and universities ranked lower than our esteemed local universities.
Why did I get this feeling that something is not right? How could world class universities not producing graduates that are considered as talents and graduates from less than world class universities are grabbed like hot properties, great talents? If our universities are producing non talents, then we might as well close them down and save the money. And forget about the 4th university.
Foreign or local workers not an issue
I am tempted to agree with Lim Swee Say that foreign worker local worker divide should not be an issue. It is productivity. We need productive workers to do the job well at the lowest cost. This is like white cat black cat, no issue. Just catch the mice. I must clarify here that when Deng Xiaoping said this, foreign and local workers was not an issue in China. He was talking about Chinese workers only. And I believe Swee Say would also have said that whatever, citizens must come first.
In our context, we may also claim that we are different. We are small and cannot be isolated. We are immigrants from the start. So living on the entrepreneur skills and hard work of foreign workers should be a part of our secret formula to success. And lazy and less productive workers cannot get away with it. They may be citizens, so what? They have done NS, big sacrifice, so what? They need to be competitive and productive and be better and cheaper than the foreign workers if they want to be counted. We have to be real and not be bogged down by citizens and non citizens. This is the real world.
Singaporeans must work as hard as the foreign workers. There are many schemes to help them to be productive and to earn better incomes. But if they do not want to buck up, it is their own fault. We are competing in an international environment when all barriers to entry have been removed. Every country is buying talent. Our non talents can go elsewhere and be foreign talents and be welcomed.
The above is just for discussion. It is meant to be provocative, to stimulate thinking out of the box.
8/31/2009
Public housing is affordable
HDB has reiterated its position that HDB flats are heavily subsidised and affordable. Let me for once agree that HDB flats are indeed affordable. The heavily subsidised part I will leave it to everyone to make their own conclusions.
Now, did I say that HDB flats are affordable? I did not say it without reasons. HDB flats are indeed affordable to everyone. You just buy one according to your own financial position. But that is not all. As long as you have money you can buy a HDB flat. The only difference, don't quibble, not nitpick, is that the money you have will buy you a smaller flat as days go by. Still affordable, definitely, only getting less for what you pay for. And paying longer and longer.
Actually the people buying public housing should be very contented to have a roof over their heads. Be grateful. That is what public housing is all about, affordable and cheap. If you want good and big, go and buy The Sail or something like that. Those buyers are not complaining and are happily paying for what they get, good value for money.
Landslide in Japan
The 21st Century seems to be a century of landslide victories for opposition political parties that have for years been seen as no hopers. Malaysia shook the ruling UMNO by delivering several states to the opposition, something so unbelieveable. UMNO, with all its machinery and state organisations and power, could just watch as the opposition chips away at their territories. Every by election seems to be an opportunity for the opposition to wrestle another constituency from UMNO.
Last night we saw another landslide in Japan. After more than 50 years of domination in Japanese politics, the Japanese grew tired and disillusioned with the ruling party. The LDP seemed to be running out of tricks from its bag and was soundly trumped by the DPJ. The winning margin was unimaginable. And we are witnessing another historical event and a new beginning, and the end of LDP.
If this is the trend to be, we will probably see a similar landslide here in the next GE. Many may sneer at such a thought or suggestion. The ruling party has been in power for so long, with all the right and highly qualified candidates, with all the machinery and achievements to show how good it has been. And the opposition is still unable to find the right candidates to make a little dent on this formidable machine.
Who knows what will happen or what will come next. There are plenty of qualified and able Singaporeans waiting in the fringe for the moment that could change the course of our history. To get 80 good men and women to stand for a general election is not a difficult task when the time is ripe. The landslide may come earlier than expected. The seemingly uphill task may not be that impossible when the chips are down.
Would we see a landslide in two years? I know that many are laughing at such a possibility. At this point in time, it seems clearly impossible, no way. Who knows?
8/30/2009
MIW or Men In White
It is an uncanny coincidence to release a book called Men In White in the Chinese Seventh Month. The Seventh Month is well known for the release of souls from the forgotten nether world, all in white of course, to have a feast before they are returned, back to where they come from. The book, Men In White, will see the return in spirit of the men who were living with us once. But many may not have the privilege to return to this land they once called home, and will remain as wandering spirits in all corners of the earth. They will not be welcomed as PRs or even tourists.
These Men In Wilderness have returned in a way to fill a gap in our historical records of our founding days. The effort to hear their stories and get them printed is a very enlighten process, and a gracious one, to let our stories be told from a different perspective. And Singaporeans are fortunate to have this side of the story told now than to wait for another century when memories would have been washed clean of whatever historical correctness, for the benefits of our descendants. The permission to allow such a process to take shape and become a reality should be acknowledged.
There are many perspectives of the Singapore Story and there are many eye witnesses who have life testimonies to tell. Some may have already written but waiting to be published when the climate is more conducive. Some may have forfeited the chance to tell their stories. With the passing of time, more revelations will be served in the book shelves.
The Men In white is a story told by the defeated in a political struggle to run this country. Most of these men and women were steeped in idealism, aspiration, political beliefs and conviction for a social and political cause. Many could have been very successful and eminent dignitaries today if they have not joined politics or have abandoned their chosen cause. They paid a very heavy price for what they stood for. They never regret or recant or complain about their sacrifices.
We could, in the future, read books from the second and third waves of defeated and banished politicians in the wilderness. We could also read autobiographies from the discarded Men In White living in our midst, with their versions of bitterness and dissatisfaction with the way things were. These will be interesting read, like kiss and tell novels. Until then, the Singapore Story will still be written like fairy tales, with princes and princesses and an ending that says they live happily ever after.
8/29/2009
Say only the good stuff
Last week I wrote about the prices of properties in relation to the income of the average workers and the reports and comments by industry workers that property prices today are affordable. The statistics from the industry said that the cost of a mass market flat is equivalent to 20 years income of the average Singaporean, median or mean in this case will not make any substantive difference. This means that it will take 40 years to service the mortgage from a single income or 20 years from dual income, the latter amounts to paying 50% of the double income to the loan. Subsequently some forumers wrote to say that normally a borrower will use 30% of his income for such purposes as living requires a lot of expenses in other areas. This would mean that it will take virtually the whole life time to service such a loan. Accepted that incomes will grow and things will be better along the way.
Today we have further clarifications by the professionals as to their reasonings and methodologies for concluding that today’s prices are affordable. I think this is only expected as they have vested interest to talk up the market and get the crowds rushing in to buy.
Would anyone in the industry be objective enough to tell the other side of the story, that the prices now are way too high, unrealistic, and unsustainable? Reports on new launches for 99 year lease are talking about $900 to $1100 psf. This means a 500 sq ft studio is going to cost about $500k. Whether this is affordable or not is relative. But the fact that it is going to cost a bomb relative to the average income of the workers cannot be changed. Could it appreciate higher? It could if the income of the buyers are going to keep going up.
Of course the professionals will cautiously mentioned about a bubble in the future, unsustainable in the future, but not now. It is affordable.
Buyers beware if you are going to listen to the sales pitch of people with vested interests to want to sell the properties.
8/28/2009
It takes a girl to defy the whole establishment
I have avoided posting about this story in case it will affect her chances against formidable foes. But her case was mentioned yesterday and I thought things have worked to her favour and her steely guts to defy two powerful authorities should be acknowledged.
Kartika Sari Dewi Shukarno faces off the Muslim clergies and the Malaysian Govt and defy them to cane her in public. Yes, she broke a religious law, forbidden to drink alcohol, in her case, a glass of beer. And the punitive sentence was caning, 6 strokes. And she stood on her high pedestal and told the authorities, go ahead, cane me in public, get it done with.
Her case was prominently reported in many newspapers and media and becomes an embarrassment to the Malaysian Govt. This is a govt that is torned between trying to be secular and trying to be Islamic at the same time, one day clenching their fists shouting Allah is Great and another day calling for moderation to avoid being branded as another radical Islamic state.
Kartika's caning was postposed in view of Ramadan. And the Home Affairs Minister Hishamuddin in a press interview declared that his ministry did not have the expertise to do the caning. PM Najib advised Kartika to appeal against the sentence.
And to date she refuses. She is still calling the religious authority to cane her in public. I dare you!. And to complicate matter, in order to cane her they had to imprison her, which added to her punishment. Now the Malaysian authority is caught with over punishing her for a minor crime. To go ahead with the caning would put Malaysia in the same league as radical Muslim states. How could Malaysia, a model of modern Islamic state be seen to uphold an infringement to a religious law by a woman, for drinking beer, and deal with her so harshly?
Would Malaysia take the moderate path or push ahead with its religious laws? That is a tricky question. And Kartika is still standing tall, as the little girl that takes on a govt and a religious order run by powerful men.
Sad As Ivan was demolished!
The dust has settled after the big demolition job in parliament last week. Peering through the smoky haze, I am still trying to figure out if Sadasivan is still standing there. Or has he been bashed and scattered everywhere like dust, or sprawled on the floor?
How sad that a greenhorn NMP should have to take that kind of blow on his maiden speech in Parliament. Or was it an exercise, like the Chinese proverb, literary translated as ‘putting on a formidable impression while dismounting from a horse?’
By the way, any speech can be nickpicked and made to look like anything else one wishes it to be. IMAGOD has been doing it to all my postings lately. I am luckier as he is not God though he claimed to be one.
What I see in Viswa Sadasivan is a golden opportunity for the members of parliament to engage in a good dosage of discourse, to do battle with ideas and words, instead of throwing detonators and explosives. Viswa is eloquent and can deliver a speech as good as anyone else in parliament. What would be interesting is the follow up, the attack and defence of positions put forth by him with the other wise gentlemen in parliament. Unfortunately, it was never to be. I don’t think we are going to hear much from Viswa anymore.
I hope nobody regrets his appointment as a NMP. I hope he will rise up from the ashes and make a more solid presentation in his next speech, and be prepared and ready to meet the steam roller at full speed. The first round he lost, demolished, for he did not know what was coming, and was hit unprepared. He could be wiser the next time and prepare to take on whatever comes his way. Or he could be like dust, blown away, here today, gone tomorrow.
8/27/2009
Muhyiddin Spoke The Truth, Says Mahathir
August 26, 2009 22:25 PM
Muhyiddin Spoke The Truth, Says Mahathir
This is the heading in a reply by Mahathir on what Muhyiddin said. So, did Muhyiddin spoke the truth? Muhyiddin said two things. 1. He was persuaded to supply water to Singapore. 2. He said Lee Kuan Yew threatened to go to war with Malaysia if the latter did not supply water to Singapore. Mahathir said 1 is correct and 2 is false.
Can I conclude that Muhyiddin said the truth for 1 and did not say the truth for 2? For Mahathir said that if LKY did threaten war with Malaysia, he would be the one to stop supplying water to Singapore. And that is vintage Mahathir and he would do it. Plainly, LKY would be diplomatic enough not to threaten war with Malaysia. Unbelieveable!
Read the Bernama report below for the truth or half truth.
"KUALA LUMPUR, Aug 26 (Bernama) -- Former prime minister Tun Dr Mahathir Mohamad has admitted that he had persuaded Tan Sri Muhyiddin Yassin to supply water to Singapore when the latter was the Johor menteri besar.
"Tan Sri Muhyiddin spoke the truth about my persuading him to supply water to Singapore but Lee Kuan Yew did not threaten to go to war if we did not supply water. If he had done that, I think I would have stopped any further supply," Dr Mahathir said in an article posted in his blog on Wednesday.
Dr Mahathir was commenting on Muhyiddin's statement on Aug 19 that he (Dr Mahathir) had summoned him to attend a meeting with the visiting Singapore prime minister then, Lee Kuan Yew, over gas pipeline and water supply issues in Kuala Lumpur.
Muhyiddin had said that during the meeting between Dr Mahathir, the then finance minister Tun Daim Zainuddin, Lee and himself, Lee had pressed for adequate water supply to the republic from Johor.
"Lee said Singapore was ready to go to war if Malaysia did not want to supply enough water and expressed his regret over the stalled water supply project from Sungai Lingu.
"I said we did not have the money and Lee said Singapore was willing to bear the cost and, when completed, the assets will be owned by Malaysia, so Singapore had merely footed the bill," said Muhyiddin.
Muhyiddin said this at a ceramah in Tanjung Putus, Bukit Mertajam, during the campaign in the Permatang Pasir state by-election to clarify allegations by the opposition that he (Muhyiddin) had sold a piece of land to Singapore in connection with the water treatment plant in Sungai Lingu, Bandar Tenggara, Johor.
Dr Mahathir said in his article he did not know about the sale of land to Singapore but as it was agreed that a treatment plant be built by Singapore in Johor, land would have to be made available.
"We were at that time trying to be friendly with Singapore in order to solve several problems. Although raw water would be supplied at 3 sen per 1,000 gallons, the understanding was that in future only treated water would be supplied when our treatment plants would be ready.
"We would also not buy any more treated water from Singapore at 50 sen per thousand gallons when our new treatment plant in Johor is ready.
"When we no longer needed to buy treated water from Singapore we could raise the price of raw water to Singapore without Singapore being able to raise the price of treated water to us.
"However, when we concluded the water supply agreement, Singapore raised a lot of issues regarding our railway land, the CIQ (Customs, Immigration and Quarantine) at Tanjong Pagar, training flights by Singapore warplanes over Malaysia and the Central Provident Fund.
"At that stage, I realised that being friendly with Singapore did not pay," Dr Mahathir added."
-- BERNAMA
Of Race, Religion and Nationality
These are the most common identity tags that people wear on their chests. They are either Chinese, Indian or Malay, Taoist, Muslim, Christian or Buddhist, and Singaporean or other nationalities. It seems simple enough until one claims to all three and there are forces tugging them in all directions.
In the context of a country, race is probably the easiest to deal with as ethnicity is always subordinated to nationality. Regardless of race, one is a citizen of a country. So we have Chinese Singaporeans, Malay Singaproeans, Indian and Eurasian Singaporeans. This is similar to European Americans, Afro Americans, Asian Americans, Hispanic Americans. And as citizens they enjoy the same rights and privileges. The exception is Malaysia where race is supreme over nationality. Malaysians do not enjoy the same rights and privileges unless they are Malay.
Nationality may be an artificial construct but it is legal and well defined, with specific boundaries, rules and laws, and rights and responsibilities. All citizens are constitutionally equal. And they are known by their citizenships. So in China you have Han Chinese, Hui Chinese, Mongolian Chinese, Manchurian Chinese, Uigher Chinese and Tibetan Chinese. And they are equal under the constitution.
The more troublesome part is religion. The believers believe that they are under a superior being with a superior set of laws. And if they don't abide by the law of a country and want the religious law to be above secular law, then you have a problem. In many countries, you have kings, Presidents, and Prime Ministers kneeling before a religious head who could be just another Ah Beng in a robe. The Ah Beng could be delivering his great message from his gods and the ministers could be sitting there quietly listening to him. And Ah Beng may not even pass his PSLE. But he is the representative of his gods.
This is good. The trouble starts when they identify themselves as one and transcend across national borders. Then we have Turkish Muslims demanding the right to represent Uigher Muslims in China. Then we have Muslims from across the world helping their Muslim brothers to topple the secular govt in Indonesia, Philippines and Thailand and other places. And they never see it as wrong as their superior doctrine and god are not restricted or confined to any man made borders.
The world will be more muddle and chaotic when race, religion and nationality are messed around like rojak.
_________________
8/26/2009
Kudos to Tan Kin Lian
The formation of an independent watchdog group is a great leap forward in the protection of the small people that are often left in the lurch. The Financial Services Consumer Association(Fisca) is a welcome move. Tan Kin Lian has done it again, for the small and helpless people.
We need more of such organisations for the good of the people. What such associations need is more clout, say professionals especially in the legal profession, to take up their case at minimal cost. In our expensive legal system, the small people without money often fell victims to the rich or the faceless corporations.
The next thing that is needed is a channel to air their cases. I think as time goes on, as they become more vocal, the only reliable and dependable channel is still the cyberspace. The cyberspace is the friend of the small people as it is free and truly neutral and will print anything for anyone.
Good work, Tan Kin Lian and friends, of the people.
Another dangerous proposition!
I was greeted by an article in ST by Salma Khalik suggesting insurance coverage for the 85 and above. With all good intention, she made many good reasonings and suggestions on why this group needs insurance coverage and how it could be done.
Why is this frightening? Money flying away again. This kind of help, is asking people to take your money for your own good. Please, no more help of such kinds. Please, I am screaming, shouting, no more compulsion or any kind to take the people's money away. I know my kpkb is in vain. This is a sounding board to test whether the docile masses will bite or protest. If not, be prepared, another scheme may come your way. Compulsory insurance scheme for the above 85s. Great, all grounds covered. More money in the lockup.
For goodness sake, if one is 85, prepare to leave. Our body is not built to last forever. We are not meant to be here forever. What the shit does one want to live that long for when nothing works? Want another pair of corneas, another pair of lungs, another heart, another stomach? At that age, people shall be contented to live the remaining part of their lives peacefully, with minimum pain.
For those who have everything and all the money, please insure all you can and live for as long as you can. Change all the parts if you can afford it. For the average human beans, any day longer is suffering, pain and misery. And the suffering is not only to themselves but to their children and caregivers.
What is more merciful? To prolong the pain and suffering, the misery, or to depart when the time has come? Another high faluting idea?
8/25/2009
Making sense of statistics
Today paper reported that the 60% sandwiched class had a reprieve for price increases in the first 6 months of the year. The increase in CPI for this group of people is 0.7%. The ST highlighted that the poorest or lowest 20% was the worst hit as the CPI rose 1.6% for this group. Both used the same set of statistics from the Dept of Statistics to report a different thing.
So one group should be celebrating and another group, the poorest, should be crying. But these are just statistics. Look at the shopping centres, foodcourts, the property launches, and the mercedes benzes in 2 or 3 rm flat car parks, then you may wonder whether the people are really suffering. You don't see the overt and abject poverty around the public housing estates. Yes there were the occasional soft drink can collectors and a few lonely souls browsing the rubbish bins instead of the internet. They are the exceptions.
Prosperity is in the air. I just recall the happy faces at the NDP and the hundreds of thousands of merrymakers out for a good time at the Esplanade, the Marina Bay and the Padang area. So where are the poor or the poorest? If our poor and poorest are still able to have a good time in the worst economic crisis we are faceing, and with the CPI running away, than things cannot be so bad.
Time for celebration again. For the top 20% they can open that $500 or $5000 bottle of champagne, the middle 60% can open the cheap red from ShengSiong or FairPrice. And the lowest 20% can either go for some cheap beer or toddy. Celebrate within your own means. This is paradise, the modern day Eden. (Jaunty going to scold me now.)
Loan shark country II
Just when you think it is over, just when the men in blue declared war and successes in napping a few runners, they struck again. Saw the news last night that residents in some part of the country have to put a layer of plastics over their doors, windows and walls to avoid the paints that will come in the dark of the night.
The loan sharks are quite fearless. Or are they sending out a message, that this is their country and they are the law or above the law, or the law is nothing to them? Yes they can defy the law, and what can the law do to them?
The thing is that our reputation as loan shark country is growing and spreading, and loan sharks with deep pockets are sending their funds here from neighbouring countries. Soon we will earn the badge of being the number one loan shark country in the world.
Another feather on our cap.
8/24/2009
A new lifestyle
Singaporeans have many choices of lifestyle they wish to live by, at a cost. Take visiting families and friends for instance. A family of two adults and two children making social calls is not a cheap thing. The fortunate will drive to their destination and the immediate cost is the petrol. The road tax and car already paid for. Just the recurring cost, $10 for petrol and $5 for parking. And if they choose to park illegally, maybe another $30 to $80 if kenna caught by our superbly efficient parking attendants.
The alternative is public transport, either by cab or train/bus. A two way cab fair is going to be at least $20 or more, depending on the distance. Even by mass transport, $8 may be the cheapest. Hey, leading a socially active life is not cheap and not free anymore.
What can happen down the road is perhaps virtual visiting. Everyone hook on a webcam and sit in front of a PC or laptop to chat away, by the fingers of course. In visual contact but nothing physical. Now that is futuristic. For those with mother in law phobia it is the best thing to happen.
Now I am wondering why is social life or family visit a thing of the past.
Political dissidents turned heroes
The South Koreans said farewell to one of their most loved leader, Kim Dae Jung, or Mr Sunshine. Kim Dae Jung is also hailed as the Nelson Mandela of Asia. He was demonised, turned into a villain and imprisoned by the political masters of his time. He spent many years behind bars, endured torture and death threats, but survived to be elected as South Korea's President in 1998. And history was rewritten.
Kim Dae Jung was not the only one that went from dissident to national hero. Xanana Gusmao of East Timor is another example of the kind of treachery and political corruption in Asian countries even today. The abuses of political power to destroy political opponents is nothing new and hardly any Asian country can stand up to tell the world that they are free from such persecutions and bullyings of the losing party.
The latest victims are Thaksin and Aung San Ssu Kyi of Thailand and Myanmar. Very likely they will have their stories rewritten someday. Malaysia is seeing Anwar Ibrahim making his come back and could be the next Nelson Mandela from Asia.
The stories of Kim Dae Jung, Gusmao, Mandela and many more to come, are testimonies of the stinking political games that are being played by politicians, when innocent political contenders were painted blacker than black. We are so lucky to witness how these dirty political games are played for all to see. But would the masses be able to see the real from the unreal, the truth from the untruth? Or joining the winning side and enjoying the buffet is what counts and the 'villians' shall be villains for the day, until history favours them and turn them into another Mandela?
8/23/2009
What we told the children
We teach and tell the children many things and many good values, don't cheat, be honest, be kind, be helpful, be caring to others, etc etc. These are values that the children take seriously and many would live by them as they turn into adults.
As they grow older, we teach them more, serve the people and country, be prepared to fight and die for your country, honour, integrity and loyalty. But do we believe that they will live by them as adults? Or these are just values that are good to have, good to believe or aspire to, and that's about as far as we believe in them?
In the world of the adults, the good values may be the same. But they are moderated by pragmatism. Be real. The adult world is not a world of make beliefs. It is a world where idealism is only idealism. It is all about what is in it for me. If there is nothing for me, forget it. Just enjoy the goodness of the meaning. It is better to be practical, pragmatic and live with a new set of values that will enhance one's self worth, material wellbeing and all the other trappings of being successful. Let the children and losers believe in all the goodness of things like honesty, loyalty, honour, integrity, fairness etc etc.
Now I can understand why some people feel so disappointed about the national pledge. The more they believe in it, the greater is their disappointment, and the greater they feel like being a sucker. It is just another good to have, good to believe value. Not to be true, not to be real, not achieveable. Just an aspiration.
8/22/2009
Property prices, an exercise in illusion
We have this property frenzy turning more crazier by the days. How much of this is real and how much are concocted to give the impression of real demand and real affordability? The ST carries several pages today with two conflicting views, that property prices are really affordable and with some cautioning that a bubble is in the building and we will have our property crisis like the US in the next economic downturn. Would we hear some sensible words of advice on this happy tragedy that is waiting to happen, or everyone is happily playing the monopoly game?
A report by Citigroup economist Kit Wei Zheng said that prices at 19 times are now more affordable compare to the 40 times annual income of 1996. It is a relative game. From 40 times to 19, everyone should be cheering and rushing to get one unit. It is less than half price!
The crazy and irresponsible thing is to let this go on and on. In fact it was utmost irresponsibility to let prices shot up to 40 times the annual income of the buyer at the average Singaporean level. But no one cares. Ahhh, caveat emptor. Nothing can be done. It is all good business and individual responsibility, and free market. Wny are we so concerned about people gambling in the casinos?
Take a 20 year annual income as an example. It would mean that the buyer would need to pay every cent of his income for 20 years to fully pay up for the unit. And this also isn't true as the mortgage plus interest for 20 years will easily work out to be double the amount, ie, he needs to pay for 40 years instead, every single cent.
Let's say that he uses half of his income to service the loan, wow, does it mean that it will take him 80 years to do so? Ok, double income family. So maybe 40 years to pay up.
Still sounds good, provided neither of them loses his/her job. Then the increments and promotions along the way will make the repayment much easier. But still a 30 to 40 year repayment and a sum that is not small.
In 1975 a semi D cost only 2 years of annual income, a 5rm HDB flat cost slightly more than 1 year annual income. That was why those who bought into properties then could sit on huge profits from asset appreciation. With today's prices, is there going to be a profit at the end of 30 years?
We are assuming that many Singaporeans are rich and able to afford such properties looking at the attendance in property launches. We are also assuming that many Singaporeans in the future will be able to pay double the current prices if the present day properties are going to appreciate in value.
What is very likely to happen is that in the next 10 to 20 years, there are bound to be several economic turmoils along the way, and people paying high prices and servicing high mortgages are going to be hanged for sure.
For the time being, enjoy the party...if it is for real. Let's see who ends up with the baby when the music stops.
8/21/2009
Time for celebration
Singapore is officially the 2nd most expensive Asian city after Tokyo. Bring me my wine, or champagne better, for such a great achievement. And with our salaries also at record high, property prices at record high, Singaporeans are a lucky lot to be able to afford such high living.
How do I conclude so? No Singaporean is complaining. So all is fine. And foreigners are flocking here in bigger numbers, all laughing to the banks. There are plenty of money everywhere. A modern day Eden.
High faluting ideas to be demolished
I have glanced through a few papers and blogs and they were all talking about high faluting ideas and these need to be demolished. Now what is a high faluting idea? I search the web and found this: Meaning: (Regional slang) 1. Highly pompous, bombastic (speech). 2. Showing off, ostentatious, pretending to be above one's station in life, putting on airs.
Ya, I agree. All high faluting ideas must be demolished. Which one? Anyone comes across any high faluting ideas, please tell me.
PS. An idea that is faluting or not is very subjective. It all depends on who is saying what.
Cyberspace state of health
Or shall I call it freedom of speech? Between a communist giant like China and a democratic island like Singapore, I think it is quite shameful if we are to compare the freedom of speech between the two. Mind you, they have demonstrations every frequently. And I am not referring to those in Xinjiang but in Beijing and Shanghai. Back to freedom of speech. The first thought is that we must be much freer, and our bloggers must be blogging themselves crazy with a diverse spread of views, pro and anti establishment. In reality, the country that is freer in terms of blogging and expressing of views is China.
Cannot be? In a comment in the editorial of the ST on the topic of India and China relations, the editor said this, '...few Indians know that there are millions of Chinese bloggers who express themselves freely and fearlessly.' The we look at our own cyberspace and netizens and ask ourselves, who can be qualified as 'blogging freely and fearlessly'?
If there are such animals, they are probably blogging from overseas or found in P65.
Race and Religion the hot topic
After Hsien Loong's ND Rally, race and religion have taken on a higher profile with poeple agreeing that they should be discussed openly and not be tabooed, or fearing that someone will come knocking at your door.
The general mood is that it is time for issues of race and religion be discussed. I think before such a great happening becomes a reality, people must accept certain limitations, constraints and ground rules to abide by. It is easy to start talking about them. But it is not easy to close the topic when things get heated up and when young blood or instigators join the fray. Discussing such issues, the demand for maturity, respect, sensitivity and an understanding ear are very high as the views put forth, when the views are true, genuine and from the heart, can be very tough to the wrong listener.
In the case of religion, I think it is more difficult as certain doctrines and seeds of division and hatred are already deeply embedded over centuries in religious books. Unless such dangerous views are removed from these books, they will always be used by the wrong group as reasons to fight and kill. For such views and doctrines, which many believers chose to ignore or pretend that they do not exist, are intolerable or breed intolerance of those not of the same sect. Many are outright destructive.
Would a revision be done by the wise men of today to erase those words, phrases and doctrines of the ancient and do a cleansing of these old books so that future generations can live in peace without such historical notes to invite them to be intolerable or to kill those who do not subscribe to their beliefs?
How real, genuine and sincere can believers be when the doctrines are not of peace, not of tolerance and acceptance of others?
8/20/2009
The return of LKY
LKY was in his robust best yesterday in Parliament. He stood up reluctantly to demolish a motion by Viswa Sadasivan calling for more equality among the races. LKY's position is that the Malays were the indigenous people of the land and were protected under Article 152 of the Constitution. Their special privilege and position cannot be removed by equality for all races.
He was like a young man, full of fire in his belly despite his age. He stamped his authority and made it very clear that he is still in charge, that he is the boss. And when a difficult situation arises, he will be there. And this is bad.
By his strong and persistent presence in Parliament, he has exposed a whopping big hole in the succession formula. Did any of the minister see the dangerous trend that Viswa was pointing? And is there anyone that can stand up and defend the position as robustly as he did, establishing himself as the boss man, to be able to speak in full authority and with that kind of forcefulness of a true leader?
My view is that LKY should stay in the background and let the young ministers to take charge and fight their own battle, to be their own men. And he will do them a great favour by not rushing to battle as the point man. He cannot be around forever and it is better that the new leaders establish themselves fast while he is still around to avoid creating a kind of vacuum through the lack of a tested and accepted leader securely in place, one who can speak in authority and people will listen, like listening to him.
Many people can see this problem. Unfortunately many wise men will choose to remain reticent and pretend that everything is going just fine.
8/19/2009
Regulator did not overpay for MRT doors
This is the heading of an article in the ST today in response to the gripes in cyberspace over the cost of MRT screen doors. The article quoted 3 other sources for comparison.
Half height doors
1. SMRT at $65.6k per door
2. Paris at $47k per door
3. Taipei's Danshui/Nangang lines at $84k per door
Full height doors
4. Taipei's Neihu Line at $54.7k per door.
Just the numbers, Taipei's Danshui/Nangang lines are the most expensive. But these were built in 2006 when material costs were much higher.
The other 3 were built around the same period which are better comparison. The Paris line is being built by a Swiss company and their labour and material cost cannot be cheaper than ours. But they are 34.7% cheaper. The Neihu line is full height doors and is still 16.6% cheaper.
The best comparison is between the Paris line and ours as the number of doors built are 1992 and 1920 respectively. And both are half height. Length of lines are 10km for Paris and 11km for our MRT. Both are being installed now.
The numbers say that we are paying much more than Paris and Neihu lines. True or not?
Fine or jail for putting up tent at Changi
A resident was caught and charged for putting up a tent at Changi beach without a licence. He was fined $800 which he could not afford to pay. Instead he was jailed for 4 days.
Wally, I hope it is not you. I am sure you pay for your licence : )
Loan sharks still a problem here!
It was a problem. Now it is a scourge of the land. What happens, haven't the men in blue been chasing after them all these while? Oh, they are now very sophisticated. Maybe even smarter than our men in blue. So it is difficult to deal with them or wipe them out.
I can't imagine how the home team is going to deal with the big syndicates when the IRs are operating if they can't even handle the loanshark problem.
Maybe the loan shark syndicates also send their key personnel on scholarships to Harvard and Cambridge to outsmart our brightest.
It is now a talent versus talent game. Wait till the IRs are open and we will have another new ball game.
The remarkable Garden of Eden
What are the great things in the Garden of Eden. One thing for sure, man was innocent, so innocent that he went about naked without knowing it, thus knowing no shame. And his job was to tend the garden dutifully, knowing no right and no wrong. In other words man shall be unthinking. And he must be kept that way, for he was forbidden to know, not allowed to eat from the Tree of Knowledge. God did not want man to know too much, not to be as clever as him.
There was also the Tree of Life, and man must not eat from it to live forever, like God. The line between man and God is very clear.
The essence of the Garden of Eden is that man shall live there happily doing his part, tending the orchard. It was a life of blissful ignorance, and be like a worker. Thinking is not needed, everything will be taken care of. Leave the thinking to God. And God has all things planned, with all his wise schemes.
And when man tries to be too smart, to be like God, he shall be banished from the Garden forever. Just follow orders and man will be ok. The Garden shall be guarded by a cherubim and a flaming sword to keep those banished from returning.
How many of you would like to live a life of contentment in the Garden of Eden, full of ignorant bliss and no worries? And mind you, there is a paternalistic God looking after all your needs.
Sorry Tommy. We are no Venice or Geneva. We are Eden.
8/18/2009
We are short of doctors!
Our university can only produce 200 doctors annually. And the supply of doctors is anaemic, must be affected by our 2 child policy that we cannot produce more doctors. Or all the straight As and straight Bs students were not good enough. So now we are recruiting doctors by the planeloads from third world countries or doctors with degrees from third world countries.
Our medical facilities have been expanding in leaps and bounds. Our needs for doctors, nurses and other medical professionals must also increase. Somehow I got the impression that nobody notice this. And now we have to import all the great doctors from all over the world.
Actually hor, if we know we need so many doctors hor, we can increase the intake of medical students hor, then we got no doctor no enough problem you know. QED.
First MRT, next trains, then roads
The great success in saving lives at MRT station with the erection of screen doors has spawned more great ideas about saving lives at railway tracks. The open railway tracks are even more hazardous as no one will be there to watch over those careless souls wandering into the tracks. And the trains are so difficult to spot, probably installed with stealth capability that they cannot be seen or heard. The trains will creep up quietly to mow down anyone found on the tracks.
In the My Paper today, there were many good suggestions on how to make the railway tracks safe for people or jaywalkers. Instal barriers, fences, electronic devices or maybe human patrols to keep people out of the tracks. But no one is suggesting the $126m screen doors. Ok, maybe they know that it is expensive. The most relevant and practical solution is like what Matilah suggested, barbwires, cheap, good and efficient. And this can also be used later when they want to keep the roads safe as well.
I remember watching a CNA programme of a train driving through the heart of a market place in one of the Asian cities. Before the train arrives, goods and people were all milling and scattered along the tracks. But the surprising thing is that without any signal or any electronic devices to warn the people and stall holders, at certain specific moments, they will remove everything from the railway track and the train will pass by uneventfully. Once the train has left, the track and its surrounding will be packed with goods, carts and people again. The strange thing is that nobody will be run over by the train. Even in our backyard, there used to be squatters with their huts along side the railway tracks. Amazing that no one got run over by the trains. Wonder how such a miracle could exist for so long without casualties.
Can we learn something from these unsophisticated natives?
8/17/2009
Myth 208 - Foreigners taking over jobs and housing
These seem to be the standard complaints of Singaporeans. They are taking over our jobs and our flats. Now, are these happy or unhappy problems?
Sell your homes to the suckers. Make them pay you a ransom for them. And with that kind of money, who needs a job, or who needs to work? Pack up and go to Lijiang and enjoy the life of an emperor. Why work, why coop up in a pigeon hole when the whole expanse of mother earth is there for your enjoyment?
What are Singaporeans complaining? And there are many Lijiangs around the world where our strong dollar can be converted to buy anything. Singaporeans should seize the opportunity to upgrade their lives instead of thinking of working till they drop dead. Think laterally, think of better alternatives. Ahhhh Lijiang is beckoning.
And they will do Singapore a big favour by helping it to renew itself with young and vibrant talents.
Happy like Fxxk feeling (pardon my lingo)
This is the impression one gets of all the PRs and new citizens here. How could they not be happy when they waltzed into a banquet hall with a big buffet spread awaiting them. And many were hungry and have never tasted such goodies before, or be in a posh banquet hall to be served. When people are happy because of goodies, beware. When the goodies are not there anymore, the happy faces may turn ugly.
There are many goodies for the PRs and new citizens. And PRs and new citizens will become citizens and pay the price for being citizens. Membership has its obligations. OK the lucky guys are the PRs forever, enjoying the best of both worlds. You see, our system caters to impress the newcomers, not so much of the citizens. As citizens there are commitments, including your money in the lockups. When the new citizens realise what is happening, they are not going to be happy like fxxk anymore. They will be whining like the old citizens.
National Day Rally 2009
The most impressive part of the rally must be the last video clip on the future Marina Bay area. It is a future worth looking forward to. With its completion, we will really transform into another level of economic progress. During the National Day Parade I was staring at the diminutive Asia Insurance Building, once upon a time the tallest building in the island. Today it is dwarfed by its undescribed neighbours, everyone towering above it by twice its height. And the new Marina Bay area is another leap ahead from the present waterfront at Raffles Place and Shenton Way.
I could imagine myself strolling along the Sands IR and enjoying the great sights and the richness of the surrounding. Then I wonder if I can afford the luxury within. Or maybe I shall join Wally and pitch tent at Changi Beach where the air is free, the stars and the views are free. Easier on the pocket.
Our infrastructure will be first class. The several MRT lines that will complete the transport grid will make moving around so convenient, if one can afford it. Come to think of it, travelling to Changi to pitch tent by MRT is not going to be cheap.
What is needed but missing in the rally speech is how to upgrade the pay check of the average Singaporeans. Can the pay check be bigger to meet the higher cost that is expected in a first class city living? Or shall the people be told to spend within their means, and join Wally?
I have a better idea. I will turn myself into a professional gambler to qualify for a VIP card, free room and services and free food. I don't have to step out of the Marina Bay area anymore. Just live in the IR, for free. With my miserable income which I can confidently said is at least 3 or 4 times what Wally is getting, or more if he is a pensioner, I still think I will not be able to afford that kind of luxury.
Now, for all the pensioners and would be pensioners, unless they have a couple of millions in their savings to last 20 or 30 years, they better find a job that will keep them employed till they are 70 or 80. Retirement or unemployment is no longer an option, but for the yodas. Yes, Hsien Loong did show a pic of Yoda in his presentation.
8/16/2009
Influx of foreign talents, good or bad?
1/3 of our population are foreigners and we are crying out for more. The mantra, they will help to grow our economy, our saviours. Is growing our economy the only reason for us to live by at the risk of undermining what we have built for the last 40 years?
Nation building does not come easy and is still a work in progress. We have seen some results. But it is going into the oven again. How so?
Our problem is our size. People may accuse those who want to slow down this process of globalisation for being small minded, xenophobic, short sighted, small town mentality. But before we throw the baby out with the water, let's think again and look at where we are to start with. Can we afford to have such a huge influx of foreigners in our midst in so short a span of time?
According to demographic projections, Europe will be an Islamic region in 50 years when the muslim immigrants will form the majority of the European population. And Europe is a region of mature countries and civilisations and could not resist from being adulterated by new immigrants.
We are only 3m people in a small island. As someone has said, our boundaries can be defined by the SLE, AYE, PIE and KJE. That is how big we are. A pail of shit into an ocean would not mean a thing. But a cup of shit into a pail of water will definitely change the content of the water.
For 40 years we have striven hard to build a Singaporean identity, where the citizens associate themselves with this piece of rock and call it home. Now we are saying, let's start it all over again with new immigrants and new citizens. My reservation is that instead of we absorbing the new citizens and their traits and baggages and making them one of us, we may be absorbed by them when we become a minority. It can be good, but it can be disastrous to what we have being trying to build all these years.
The conquerers of China and India were absorbed into these two huge and old civilisations. The conquerers of America vanquished the locals and change the landscape into something else. The change was good in the economic sense. To the locals, it can be anything but good.
We are too small and the risk of rapid change will have its untold price. We will only see the consequences in 20, 30 or 50 years.
The people were delirious
Big savings come with new hospital subsidy plan. Since July, the 3 tier hospital subsidies of 25, 50 and 75% have been changed to an 8 tier plan ranging from 10 to 75% depending on the family income levels. This means that some patients that were cut off by the 3 tier plan could now enjoy a higher level of subsidies. And they were delirious as they could now save several hundreds or thousands of dollars from the medical bills.
Wow. This is the good news part. The bad news part is that some hospitals had already raised their fees because of increased in operation costs and ‘patients had to pay between $300 to $1,500 more for a typical month long stay in the subsidised 8 bed wards.’
LPPL.
How much it costs for a screen door?
A $126m contract to instal screen doors for 36 MRT stations was awarded to ST Electronics and this has resulted in several discussions in cyberspace, all trying to guess how much is the cost of a screen door. The numbers vary from $60k to $100k per door.
Let me try another guess. Each train has 6 cars with 2 doors each on either side, and only one side of the doors will be in operation at the station. And with 36 stations with one platform each with two sides, the number of screen doors should be 6 x 2 x 36 x 2 = 864. This works out to be $145.8k per door. If we add 2 more platforms for the interchanges at Jurong East and Tanah Merah, assuming each has 2 platforms instead of 1, then the additional number of platforms shall be 48, giving a grand total of 912. The cost of each screen door shall be $138k.
Now, I think I am right on this number and any variation will be due to stations with more than one platform that are not accounted for and can be adjusted accordingly. So at $138k per screen door, this amount could actually buy a Mercedes Benz or a new 3 rm HDB flat in the new towns. In other words the $126m can buy 912 Mercedes Benz or 912 3rm HDB flats. The screen doors are indeed a little costly right?
Correction. There are 24 doors on each side of a train instead of 12 doors as computed above. 4 per car instead of 2. Thus the cost per screen door should be halved, ie $69k. This is close to the actual number given by LTA at $65,600.
8/15/2009
Growing numbers, louder voices, bigger demands
1/3 of our population are non Singaporeans. And if we are to maintain our economic growth rate, more will be coming in and we may have 2/3 non Singaporeans in a matter of time. And as their importance grow, and as we become more dependent on their presence and contributions, like a drug addiction, we will need them more.
Singaporeans should lay down the red carpet and welcome them with a big hug. And it is quite disheartening to read about the neglect and problems faced by the foreigners, from a place for their children in our schools and their difficulties in communications in public places. They need translators to read menus and order food. How can this be? Their discomfort is our loss if they choose to go somewhere else.
Look at the positive side, more foreigners means more demand for housing and our flats will appreciate in value. They will pay quadruples to buy our HDB flats and we can then upgrade to smaller but more expensive private apartments. There will be more demands for more facilities and services and these will help to generate more economic activities and growth. Maybe our taxi drivers will be happier with more foreign commuters. They will provide more and better quality labour at cheaper cost. Singaporeans will all benefit from their contributions.
Singaporeans can provide more services to these richer foreigners, renting out their rooms if not selling the whole flats, set up food courts, laundry shops, retail shops or whatever shops, as housing agents etc to support them and making a profit from such economic activities. It is a win win situation.
For Singaporeans who cannot see the goodness of more foreigners coming here and growing the economy, it is better that they pack up and go somewhere else. The foreigners are like our customers and deserve to be treated like our customers, to be served well, to be pampered, if we want their money and talent. A good place for unhappy Singaporeans is Lijiang in China or a similar place in India. Cheap and good, and they will treat you like we treat our foreigners, at least until your money runs out.
Making money above ethical considerations
We need ethical leadership. We need ethical management. We need ethical business practices. Making money at all cost, with no regards to ethics will make us look no different from the loan sharks, the pimps, the gambling den operators or prostitutes.
The fact that I have to post this means that unethical leadership, management and business practices are prevalent in our system. The minibond fiasco and other unfair practices in the financial system, the fraudulent practices and corruption in public and charitable organizations, are only the tip of the iceberg. Everyone knows but no one is talking. Anyone who dares claim that he does not know is either pretending or lying.
Do we have people with the guts to stamp out such violations of ethics and human decency in our organisations ? There are some individuals who are in very privileged positions to do so, to stand up against this degeneration in ethical standards in our system. Sadly, they are not doing anything, probably enjoying the ride.
Has anyone learn anything from the recent fiascos and big sums of money lost, with many people at the brink of suicide for losing their life savings, for blindly following the American schemes and scams engineered by the Ivy League graduates? They are no better than the scams of loan sharks.
When will we start to think, to question how we make money, whether the business model is ethical and fair to customers, to employees and to associates and shareholders? Or shall we just exploit the weak and the small, grab their money and run without feeling any guilt?
While Hsien Loong would have his plate full with many hot issues in his National Day speech, I hope he will touch on the subject of ethics and moral responsibility in corporate practices, including ministries and govt linked organisations. We need moral leadership to bring back ethical conducts and human decency in the pursuit of profits and doing businesses. And actions are needed, not just motherhood statements.
8/14/2009
$126m will be spent on screen walls at MRT stations
Finally the MRT has succumbed to public pressure to do what people want it to do, erecting screen walls to show that it cares and it does not want people to jump onto the train tracks or falling onto the tracks accidentally. It sure looks good on the MRT, and the screens also look nice. At $126m, they better look nice.
So we can look forward to lesser death. Now people will be smarter and find other venues to jump. HDB might have to wall up all the high rise flats when people go back to jump. Or we may even have screen walls along the roads. Then we can sleep in peace, that we have spent the money and done all we could to keep MRT, HDB and our roads safe from people who want to jump or who accidentally got knock down and die.
Our conscience is now clear. We care to the amount of $126m and more akan datang. Who is going to pay for it? Money well spent?
Our simple formula to economic growth
Increase the population. Without population growth, we will decline. My question is, is this the only way to growth? This is simply quantitative growth. There are many great nations that keep growing qualitatively, with no demanding needs to increase their populations. There is a need to keep our population growing, at a control pace, but not at a pace, and with a growth formula that says no population growth means stagnation and decline. If this is the truth, then our population will not be capped at 8m, it needs to keep growing to sustain growth, 10m, 20m, 50m....
This will denounce countries that are able to grow in leaps and bounds without significant population injection. Why can they do it and we can't? I thought we simply pay our super talents more and they will come out with quality solutions to grow our economy. Can't we just pay our way through? Or is paying and paying a myth, that they can't do anything except to rely on population to grow?
Looking ahead, I can only see ourselves starve to death for lack of air, breathing space or moving space when our population hits 8m. And going forward, we will be killing each other for a little space to wriggle around. It is a sure path to our own destruction if population growth is the only way forward.
8/13/2009
Does Dark Pool violate the fundamental principles of transparency
Does Dark Pool violate the fundamental principles of transparency in stock trading? We used to read about the Stock Exchange querying companies on unusual movements of their stock prices and trading volumes and demanding to know why. Would these be a thing of the past when secrecy and non transparency are being advocated?
Would the stock prices reflected in the stock exchange a real indication of demand and supply when real buying and selling are not done in the exchange?
Would genuine small investors be trading on prices that are not a true reflection of real buying and selling interests? Are information being held against them while some organisations are privy to information that posed an unfair advantage similar to insider trading?
Would transparency be a thing of the past? Level playing field?
The Dark Side beckons
That's the heading in the Today paper on the new trading system called the 'Dark Pool' to be introduced by the SGX. The system is to provide secrecy in trading so that big trades can be done without anyone knowing till they are done.
Did we say transparency is good? Welcome to the darkside. It is better to do things in the dark than to be transparent.
How many more things are done in the dark, or done without the knowledge of other players, giving those doing it an advantage over those kept in the dark?
PS: More articles posted in Singapore Alternative News from Europe and America on the perils of Dark Pool.
Related: SEC spotlight puts "dark pool" venues on defensive - Reuters 'Dark Pools' Threaten Wall Street - The New York Sun Europe to review ‘dark pool’ trading - Financial Times The rise of dark pools - attack of the clones - The Economist How Dark Pools Help Traders Cheat Transparency - Andymatic.com Singapore Exchange, Chi-X to form dark pool trade plat - Reuters Posted by singaporenewsalternative at 7:50 PM
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