10/07/2018

PM succession issue and the resilience of the Civil Service

Hsien Loong has said that he is going to retire soon. 5 or 6 potential PMs have been named but no one has stood out yet as the crown prince. With time running out fast, it looks like the next PM is not going to have much time for apprenticeship compares to the time taken by Chok Tong and Hsien Loong. One had about 5 years and the other more than 10 years. For the scholars who would like to do studies on the effectiveness of a Singapore PM measured against the time of apprenticeship, there are some empirical data to prove their case. For that they may want to throw in LKY and his lack of apprenticeship into the study, maybe as a placebo effect. Is there any correlation between performance and effectiveness against the time under apprenticeship? How relevant is apprenticeship to the performance of a PM?
 

Some people may be wondering why no one has stood out so far as the crown prince, the PM elect among the appointees? Is it that they are not good enough, or all about the same, too difficult to choose who is the better candidate? There is another unspoken question that no one dares to ask. What if none of them are better than their seniors like the two DPMs or Khaw Boon Wan, Ng Eng Hen or Shanmugam or Lim Swee Say for that matter? Another question, do the senior ministers respect the newly appointed PM elects?
 

I have been posing many questions on this issue without giving any answers as no one has the right answers and everyone will have his own view of the issue in discussion. What if no one is found good enough or identified when Hsien Loong quits as PM, I mean retires as PM suddenly? Would there be a leadership crisis? Would the govt ground to a halt? Boh cheng hu?
 

Some fearmongers may want to raise an alarm. How can the country survive without a PM? It must be critical and a crisis situation and there will be a loss of confidence in the country. It would be panic station. Jiat lat.
 

If such a situation occurs when no one is filling in as PM and everyone is second guessing and there is a power struggle, what would happen to Singapore? Would the police force or the armed forces stop functioning? Would the PUB stop operating? Would the HDB stop all its services? Would the hospitals stop treating the sick? Would the judicial system stand down? Would the MRT stop running, etc, etc?
 

I think nothing of these would happen. All the ministries and stats boards and public and private organizations would function as per normal, at least for a few months, until the next PM is found. The govt, the ministries, the Civil Service will not grind to a halt. We have built a very efficient and resilient system that would go on running, auto pilot in a way, without a PM or even a political govt in charge for a while. The country would not turn into chaos overnight unless there is a coup.
 

I am presuming that our Civil Service is not a house of cards that cannot function without a political party lording over it, at least during an interim period. Many of the top civil servants are better educated and trained and experience than the boys and girls in politics.
 

What do you think?

28 comments:

Anonymous said...

Singapore will function well without the PAP, period!!!!

Anonymous said...

Found one who is good enough to be PM when Hsien Loong quits - Ho Kwon Ping !

Anonymous said...

Loooong had been sick with cancer for so long. Expected him to be much more compassionate but 15 yrs still ramp up collect more n more monies from citizens n still sue sue sue. Wow Lau how to face Maker?

Whoever said...

PAP or no PAP, Singapore will still function effectively and efficiently. There should be no doubts in the mind of anybody.

Government or no government, Singaporeans will still continue life as usual. Businesses and public services will still go on as usual.

The only difference or the only thing missing will be the need to pay $millions to each and every minister, including the lowest grade of minister-of-states (or status).

And, perhaps, another thing missing would be unnecessary laws being errected to consolidate and promulgate power for a few pretentious dictatorial power-crazy political hacks.

That's about all. So, not to worry. PAP or no PAP, Singapore will be okay, and Singaporeans will even be better off!

Cheer Up!

jjgg said...

RB had too much tonic drink last night.. the problem is not if no prime minister can be found (it's simple enough to convene a group n let the country be governed by a council of warriors..( remember ho chi minh?) n let the one with the most decorations be the mouthpiece.. the problem starts when one is selected n deemed better than his cohort. There won't be jealousy.. envy..n disdain amongst the unchosen ones? Remember gct's selection was done in secrecy n quiet. Now that the dumb sickie decided to lay it open..won't there be a loss of face amongst all the other contenders or are we to believe that all the leading contenders will happily accept the result.. if they are devoid of any ambitions then I fear for our country. Heh heh

Anonymous said...

Countries are run by civil servants. Monkey as PM still no problem. Even Japan n Taiwan run smoothly when entrenched Party kicked out. Latest is Malaysia. Actually very good without Lightning money suckers. Govt sure suck money but Pappies are undisputed biggest suckers. Sinkies are most conned n most controlled.

Anonymous said...

Even if PAP cockup, you think opposition can win to become govt?

If not, why care who will be the PAP PM?

Whoever said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Whoever said...


The strategy of pretending to lay out all the "suitable" yet unsuitable candidates is not for them to content or contest, but for public consumption.

The Sickie PM (Power and Money) still believes that Singaporeans are so dumb that they can be easily deceived. He is basically trying to lay out a smoke screen - letting the public know that he is trying very hard to select a succession from the 4G, but there is actually not a single one who is suitable at present!

Hey Presto! "What about my son, Li Hong Yi?"

For a long time now, hidden in his mind he has already decided who to succeed him (his own son Li Hong Yi). But because of opposition and resistance from several quarters and the recent exposure of his dynastic desire and design by his own siblings, he has now to prolong the succession until an opportunity arise.

He is actually trying very hard to create that opportunity or conditions that will create that opportunity for his own son, Li Hong Yi, to arise.

Degree of confidence for my analysis = 70%, give or take 5% margin of error.

Anonymous said...

Maybe he will use another seat warmer for a temporary PM until Li Hong Yi is mature enough to take over.

Anonymous said...

It is highly possible Li Hong Yi (son of PM Lee) will ultimately be the successor as PM.

But need to have seat warmer first, just like Goh Chok Tong. But unlike for Goh Chok Tong who warmed the seat for 14 years, maybe only for shorter period as seat warmer for the new PM.

I bet Li Hong Yi will contest the next election and will also sure win one.

By the way, I predict Hougang will disappear and WP will lose Aljunied in the next election. I think WP also deserve it and will also not be missed as opposition.

It is a depressing prediction for the Sinkie opposition but it may turn out true.



Anonymous said...

Didn't they tell us 'soon'?

Anyway, whoever sits on the dragon throne, life still goes on, things will remain the same, the dafts will still remain daft. But then, without any opposition, the autocracy will digress into a dictatorship. By then we may hear the 70% bend and shout 'wan shui, wan shui, wan wan shui'. And they will live happily ever after!

So, do not worry. And we may have to sing 'Red Dot is red' like the Chinese. Because everything will belong to the rulers. Then, with no opposition left, no more elections. Or we elect who they put up for election. Hurray!

Anonymous said...

Let's wait and see whether we are going to miss the WP if it disappears.

As they say, you get what you wish for, but the result may not be what you expect.

Good luck with your good hope!

Ⓜatilah $ingapura⚠️ said...

@ all the scaredy cats:

I agree with the sentiment that it really doesn't fucking matter who the asshole Prime Minister is, our cuntry will not only survive but prevail. Singapore is a tiny fucking island. You don't need a huge govt with "leadership". Bo Cheng Hu also can, in fact I favour bo cheng hu. As I've previously stated on many occasions, you should be able to fit the ENTIRE Singapore govt into 2 floors of a modern office building.

One floor for the 3 ministries : Finance, Defence, Home Affairs (that's it! Only 3 required), and the other floor for the Civil Service. MAS should be decommissioned and all currency matters be relegated back to Treasury...like the old days. (i.e. get rid of the CENTRAL BANK entirely.)

To keep up wth the changing times, I would like to add another floor in the building: The IT floor. This is where the cuntry's IT infrastructure is managed. Heavy use of Artificial Intelligence to run/ govern as much as possible. No humans required. Humans on standby in case of breakdowns.

All GLCs and SGX listed Singapore government entities should be sold off in the market...who wants them can buy them---let money do the talking.

CPF---close down. Return all money to members at 6% pa interest, back-dated and calculated. HDB---close down---all lease holders have their leases converted to PRIVATE; they hold the property title, all blocks/ estates Strata managed. The values of the units live and die in the market. En bloc sales paid in true prevailing market value.

Once you get rid of HDB and CPF, there is no more mechanism to manipulate voters and thus the politics will be more "free market". HDB-CPF are essentially the "shackles" which the PAP place on voters to manipulate sentiment. The HDB-CPF shackles are very powerful tools which account for much of the PAP political dominance over 5 decades.

I can't see how we need any more "governance" than that. Parliament House can be sold to Far East Org. since they are the best private sector developers...bar none. They can turn it into another St James Power Station entertainment venue.

Once we have a tiny tiny government, we will all be taxed a lot less. Lean and mean is the way to go. Once you have the systems in place any bloody fool can be PM, because the whole cuntry is system-based with very little human "discretion" required. People are free to nominate animals from the Singapore Zoo to be their PM or President---it won't fucking matter anymore---no problem with "succession" or "continuance of government". Problem solved. Gone forever.

If The People so choose, they can have elections every month---by electronic voting. Thus we can have "PM of The Month" and "President of The Month"

================

I don't know how many here were fortunate enough to attend this year's "Rice Ball". As usual, these folks out did themselves again. This group of wild, zany individuals are made up of some of my favourite Singaporeans. Here's Ho Ching & Rosmah clip. It is HILARIOUS! Enjoy! 🤡

Anonymous said...

Yeah! Close down the Istana as well! Who needs a deity sitting there doing nothing? Religion is obsolete!

Monthly election is a good idea. Everybody has a chance to become PM, like the toto draw and having two millionaires every week. Then no need to wait and see who is next. After all, the civil servants are running the show!

Why didn't they think of that?

b said...

The strategy is easy and simple, get a sit warmer, mess up sg, Lky grandson appear as hero, save the day.

Just blindly support pap and you get promotion and your pocket full full otherwise migrate to canzoz.

Anonymous said...

No need to look further, the next Sinkieland PM is Kee Chiu la.
Any objection? Kee Chiu?
But why take so Long to announce huh?
Maybe there is internal conflict or competition ( cud be between Ah Mu or Ah Heng or Ah Ong or SomeboLi?) Or mayb the next PM need to be agree that he is his only a sick warmer in preparation of the crown son, that why a bit like noboli wanna this PeeM no la..

Whoever said...

Analysis of Potential Candidate for The Next Pee M

Kee Chiu has no ground support of his own making because he entered through backdoor on piggy-back. That's why he was sent to NTUC to garner support and establish a support base for himself.

The sickie Ah Heng, who is actually not Heng, is too overly ambitious until he worked himself almost to death. Why he is not Heng? He got a stroke. That is not Heng, of course. He keeps increasing and expanding taxes. That is surely very not Heng. And he almost got fired! That is extremely not Heng. So, from the look of it, with all the taxpayers cursing him day and night, everyday, his luck surely cannot improve but only gets worse. He may just fall dead in his next stroke encounter?

The third contestant is the so-called betrayer of his own father's values. This soul-selling opportunist, who was rejected by the voters but sneaked in through the backdoor through piggy-back, is a total washed-out. He is trying very hard to prove himself by showing off his stupidity as the Millionaire Minister of Experiments. The more he tries, the more outlandish he becomes. Most people just don't give a damn who he is or what he is. The carpatk charges for school teachers is the most ridiculous penny-wise pound-foolish decree this idiot has experimented.

So, basically, out of the three, there is only one Charlie left - the Kee Chiu, who happens to look like a dumb school boy and very often speaks like a kindergarten kid, and thinks like a baby, using his reverse psychology wrongly at the wrong people, rubbing them on the wrong side at the wrong time. His background as an "outstanding" paper general seems to be a suspect, after exposing his stupidity in public so often.

Therefore, it is possible that Pinkie Loonie has become quite frustrated with his idiosyncratic displays, and probably has lost trust in him. This is where his headache arises.

Ultimately, Pinkie Loonie may settle with one of the three 3G Puppets to be the Seat-Warmer - Tar Man, Pinocchio or The Sham.

The danger Pinkie Loonie will face is that any of these three 3G Puppets may decide to cut away the strings and go "independent", refusing to give up the Seat to his son. They may just hang on until Pinkie Loonie died of cancer. And there sets the stage for a different kind of politics in Singapore, which can only be better, not worse. Because the worst is already here, and now.

Anonymous said...

"The taxi driver was beaten up and lying on the road waiting for an ambulance.
The police officer and myself trying to explain to this enforcement officer ( foreigner? ) but he insist on giving a summon for illegal parking."

See the video at https://www.facebook.com/Roads.sg/

Anonymous said...

Right! Kee Chiu went in by backdoor method. Has never fought a battle himself and winning on his own merit. I mean both in politics and in the army. What is it that they think so highly of him, I cannot understand.

As it is, I think there is some merit in delaying the passing of the leadership to a seat-warmer, because the 'son of the dragon prince or king' has not even step into the political arena yet.

It has to be another 'cable car' incident to start the ball rolling, or the American version of another 'Pearl Harbour.

Hahaha....

Anonymous said...

How control of media can spin a "cable car" accident n made a sisgoon as a hero n become a minister....ols man was indeed a top schemer. Wow! Hahahaha. But in the end a sisgoon is still a sisgoon.

UG said...

What so difficult? Want to give Li Hong Yi as PM, just give? 6 smoke bomb also throw already, people also kill, got what thing more difficult? You all dont make me luff can? I dunno should I luff at old leaders or cry when I hear them talk.

UG said...

What is the purpose some security come up the bus and do a cat walk at airport? Put a check point there is okay. The security come up do cat walk for? Why not put a scanner on top like ERP scan the bus? Smart nation? The security spectacle got special scanner?

UG said...

Or the security is not human? The skin got special function? The pores can all open, than sense anything wrong inside the bus? That why must come up do a cat walk?

Virgo49 said...

Anon 8.37

The Cable Car Accident was handled by Pinky Loong after comtempting for nearly six hours after accident happened.

They do not know what to do until one car with Baiyee Singh family dropped into sea.

The fastest and most easy way used by all Rescue in the world is by helicopters and sling man to man.

Even Rescue in all fallen high cranes or gondolas.

So this Sinkie Loong earned the honour as Hero. After nearly six hours of kanan kabob.

The PSA also no one had the idea that the ship's height and mast or funnel can topple the cable wire.

So you see how Sinkies work till there an accident.

Anonymous said...

All the 4Gs slated for the hot seat went in by helicopter method and promoted very fast. This is not a good test of their ability based on theoretical assumptions.

A few of the 3Gs are very experienced, but too old to be considered and if Loong leaves seat to one of them, who happens to kick the bucket early, the big problem is what will happen if the next seat warmer have a different perspective regarding seat warming exercises becoming more permanent? Then there will be unending sequels to contend with.

Who knows whether there are indeed fermenting power struggles within the party, kept under the rug all these years. After all, the old man is gone and no one else still commands absolute authority over the PAP. And who would have thought of the sibling skirmishes emerging within the leegime after the old man's demise?

Anything is possible, nothing is impossible!

UG said...

What did old leaders do? I keep email to PM Lee email, problem not solve yet leh.

Anonymous said...

The Indian rupee has fallen to record lows against the US dollar - it was last at 74.12 versus 64.67 a year ago, a drop of more than 14%.

If anybody has an investment of $10 billion in India a year ago, that would mean a currency translation loss of more than $1.4 billion.

How much are we invested in India ???