Is America ready to be Number Two

This was the topic for discussion in the CNA programme Perspective hosted by Teymoor Nabili on  prime time 3 Oct 14. The panel guests included two American dons, Prof Thomas Magnanti and Assoc Prof John Donaldson, the American Ambassador Kirk Wagar and Manu Bhaskaran, a CEO of a consultancy. This is a good programme to watch not so much as to the subject matter but the temperature generated and how sensitive the subject was to the American dignitaries present. Watch the repeats on CNA

From the very beginning the position of the Americans was clear. Teymoor used the Great Roman Empire as an example of everything that goes up must come down.  He hit a wall. No such thing as America being Number Two to a rising China. Even if China becomes the biggest economy, so what? What they avoided saying was that they carried the big guns and could turn the table anytime they like it and China would be history. That’s the message.

It is interesting to watch the nuances and the body language of the American panellists, especially the Ambassador. I could not believe that an academic discussion on an ‘iffy’ question could cause so much uneasiness and sensitivity. And Teymoor, one of the best presenters you can find, was doing his best to balance the tension and you could sense that he too was affected by it. But being an old hand and very adept at what he was doing, he did manage to control the situation very well without upsetting anyone, but still not able to hide the discomfort in him.

The topic was about a hypothetical case in the future, what if the economic statistics are correct and China surpasses America and becomes Number One economically, or the Number One superpower. Of course everyone can dispute on the definition of what Number One means as the overwhelming American military might is unquestionable for a long time to come. The American economy could slow down, but the American expenditure on military would always be maintained to keep this pole position unchallenged and unsurpassed. To the Americans, this is a non issue. They would ensure it would not happen.

Who would ever think of the Soviet Union being what it is today? Who would ever imagine, even 30 years ago, that China could transform itself from a poor backward communist state to challenge the Americans for the pole position in international affairs? Some crystal ball gazers would say that the rise of China is inevitable, like the fall of Singapore as equally inevitable. The chips are all in place for the rise of China and the fall of Singapore. Somehow everything is in place not by intent but it just happened.

Whether China would overtake America as Number One is a moot point as no one would agree with the definition. But the rise of China as a superpower, as an economically and technologically successful nation is on the card.

And it is best not to discuss such a topic with the Americans. It rubs the wrong way and nerves are extra sensitive, like special needs children.  America will never be Number Two! China can never dream of being Number One. No way, not in the near future, not in the distant future.

PS. The Chinese were given a pleasant surprised when they were shoved up the be the Number Two when the Soviet Union self destruct. They too could not believe that they could be Number Two so fast, without any effort on their own.

Kopi Level - Yellow