8/22/2013

Economic suicide biggest threat to China


Economic suicide biggest threat to China
Global Times | 2013-8-14 19:28:01
By John Ross
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Illustration: Liu Rui/GT
Illustration: Liu Rui/GT
China cannot be murdered, therefore it must be persuaded to commit suicide. This summarizes the geopolitical situation as seen by Western anti-China circles.

It encapsulates that China's national revival has now reached a point where no external forces are strong enough to prevent China's rise. The US remains militarily stronger, but China's strength is sufficient that US losses in a war would be so great even neoconservatives do not advocate it.

US authorities can try to murder Iraq, Afghanistan, Vietnam, and possibly in the future Latin American countries, but China is too strong.

This does not mean Western anti-China circles have given up. If it is impossible to murder China, perhaps it may be possible to persuade it to commit suicide? This idea might appear ludicrous, but actually the US has already succeeded twice, with Japan and the USSR.

From the 1970s, confronted with dramatic Japanese economic growth, the US persuaded Japan to overvalue the yen, cut investment to slow growth, and implement ultra-low interest rates after the Wall Street crash in 1987, allowing Japan's capital to flow to the US and safeguarding the latter's financial system, while Japan itself suffered the "bubble economy" which exploded in 1990.

In the 1990s, the West persuaded the USSR not to follow China's successful economic reform, but to undertake "shock therapy" - total privatization of state companies.

The result was the greatest peacetime economic collapse seen in a major country in modern history. Russia's GDP fell by 40 percent, male life expectancy dropped by seven years, and Baltic and Central Asian independence movements destroyed the USSR, reducing Russia from leading a state of 288 million people to one with a 143 million population. Vladimir Putin accurately described this as "the greatest geopolitical disaster of the last century."

China is harder to persuade to commit suicide. Unlike Japan, it cannot be blackmailed via military dependence on the US. Unlike the USSR, China is not pursuing an economically adventurist policy of seeking military parity with the US on the basis of a GDP only 40 percent as large.

But the West understands its leverage points. Ordinary Chinese citizens are economically tied to their motherland, but the rich can take wealth abroad.

The fate of State-owned enterprises and many productive private companies is tied to China's economic revival, but some financial groups can get rich even amid chaos, while certain professionals can be offered jobs such as well-paid professorships at US universities.

Therefore, a comprador bourgeoisie exists with support among those Chinese professionals whose highest ambition would be a US green card. If China cannot be murdered, these may be used to persuade China to commit suicide by adopting policies damaging itself.

After experience with Japan and the USSR, the US government knows accurately which policies those are.

Investment is the most important factor in economic growth, so China's economy should be slowed by reducing investment, as was Japan's.

An overvalued currency slows an economy, so constant pressure should be exerted for the yuan's exchange rate to rise excessively.

China's State-owned companies are its economic core and key to its ability to calibrate macroeconomic policy, so they should be weakened or destroyed, as with the USSR.

Moreover, to attempt to conceal that China's rise in living standards is the fastest ever seen in a major country, billions of propaganda dollars should be spent exaggerating out of proportion every real problem inevitably arising in China's rapid development.

It is therefore to radically misunderstand the situation to imagine the biggest threat to China is US aircraft carriers in the Pacific.

The biggest threat to China is forces within it trying to persuade it to commit suicide by adopting policies inevitably derailing its national revival.

Such processes can easily be followed from outside China. But while murder involves another person, suicide is a personal decision. The world's most important question is whether China can be persuaded to commit suicide or not.

The author is former director of London's Economic and Business Policy and currently a senior fellow with Chongyang Institute, Renmin University of China. opinion@globaltimes.com.cn

36 comments:

Ⓜatilah $ingapura⚠️ said...

>> The world's most important question is whether China can be persuaded to commit suicide or not.

I doubt it is a question of "importance". All I say is, why not try it and see what happens :-)

The US Federal Government might want to see China's demise -- along with all their vassal states in Asia -- but US and other international business interests will continue to work together with the people and business sector of China to mutual WEALTH CREATION. Similarly, China's vast amounts of stored-up CASH goes to fund purchases and ventures all over the world, so that the local motherfuckers in those cuntrees get rich. Take Africa for example. Or Australia: Australian wealth has shot through the roof on China's economic power-house. Not too many cuntrees has 18-25 yr olds earning USD 100k+, many without advanced tertiary qualifications.

China's strength is its economy. Now slightly battered, it is still robust, and slowly recovering.

Suicide? Please, gimme a break. If China dies, all the high-end merchandise operators will die too. If you sell Ferrari, XO and VSOP, Piaget, Rolex, Cartier, BMW, Merc, luxury water craft, private jets, Singapore real estate...who do you think your "best customers" are? Some drug dealer from South America, An African dictator, corrupt Indonesians, ruthless Russians or a camel-fucker from Dubai?

No sir! I'll bet that your core business comes from many successful entrepreneurs/ sugar-daddies from CHINA. (Not India. India is in deeper economic shit than China)

Anonymous said...

the media from the so called democratic countries seems to be a playing up China's threat. Even sportman like LinDan is not let off. Despite winning many world awards, they would use negative connotations to describe him and other chinese players in a recent article published in shitty times

Basically they are not comfortable with any powerful spheres that is up to upset them ie non English-influence like Iranian , Chinese german, russian etc

Even Germany, an economic power house despite being a western christian dominated society is viewed with suspicion as evidenced by recent revelation of spying by one of the the 5-eyes (namely US,UK canada, australia nz all english power)

Anonymous said...

Essential viewing for scholars of our glorious mother tongue Singlish:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=m4I84bkoUKU

Anonymous said...

Australia would be selling less natural resources to China.

Australia booming mining industries contributes greatly to its economy one of the largest capitalist economies in the world with a GDP of US$1.57 trillion


The mining sector represents 10% of GDP; the "mining-related economy" represents 9% of GDP – the total mining sector is 19% of GDP

If China slows down its economy of build, build, build to buy buy buy of consumers good then

would Australia slows down its military built-up of up 2% of the GDP welcomed by the US,from the current low of 1.56% of the GDP

hence China slowing down is less suicidal

Anonymous said...

No many words, catch no ball.

Anonymous said...

So what is the biggest threat to Singapore?

Maybe RB can write about it in his next posting.

Anonymous said...

PAP being voted out of govt, and strongest opposition WP not ready to take over, that is the biggest threat to Singapore.

But it won't happen lah, so it is a hypothetical threat.

Anonymous said...

Sinkies who suffer under PAP pose no threat because they are at most only 40% or less.

In fact this 40% can even become less in future with Paya Lebar airbase and port area becoming new citizen residential districts for the 6.9 million population.

And PAP will win back Aljunied because Paya Lebar airbase is in Aljunied GRC.

Brilliant. No wonder PAP is the best available party to be govt.

Anonymous said...

Me oso,cannot be murder but may be force ,not persuade to suicide.Kenna suck dry dry economically,now got another new worry of not enough for medishied...you say i must suicide or not lah.

Anonymous said...

...you say i must suicide or not lah.
Anon August 22, 2013 1:41 pm

Go ahead and suicide lah, just another statistic only what to the 400 over suicides a year.

Another foreign talent will come and replace you for the numbers.

Anonymous said...

Maybe Shuttler Lin Dan had turned down to play for Sin, so Shitty Times shitted on him.

Anonymous said...

The biggest threat to Singapore is the Greeds of the Sinkies.

Ⓜatilah $ingapura⚠️ said...

@109:

>> would Australia slows down its military built-up of up 2% of the GDP welcomed by the US,from the current low of 1.56% of the GDP

Unlikely. Arsetrailer is the primary arse licker of the USA. Doesn't which party gets in: they are all the same.

The Aussie economy is ripe for a "correction". They've had a boom for nearly 20 years now and people have gone drunk with the idea, and so, as fucking usual, have spent more than they earned, borrowed more than they can pay -- just to name a few of the butt-fuck stupid things people do when they get rich off the success of others.

The Aussie Sheeple are infinitely more stupid than their Singaporean counterparts. They NEVER vote in a "good" government. At least in Singapore -- like it or not, the PAP does a spectacular job, even if it has to bash some of the Sheeples' heads in.

Also, governments and their politicians only have 4-5 years of "mandate". After that -- another election. So why should these assholes think "long-term"? As long as they can make it 5 years, collect money and the HUGE pension fund...then fuck off, go to private sector and make millions as "consultants".

"Luck" has played a large part in Australia's so-called "success". Sure there are people who work hard here too, and they are the ones who actually carry the whole cuntry on their backs.

I choose PAP govt anyday over any Aust govt in recent times.

Anonymous said...

Hard to believe You.
Some Sinkies had died of their
own will at Bedok Reservior. But, rest assured most will give it a fight than to commit suicide.
Singaporeans will ultimately choose ' 宁可玉啐, 不愿瓦全' to perish together than to fulfill the wish of some Pigs.

Anonymous said...

'No many words, catch no ball'. Therefore must see this tutorial video on the Singlish language:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=m4I84bkoUKU

Anonymous said...

'governments and their politicians only have 4-5 years of "mandate".'

Because of that, they will also not do so much and deep evil such as using ISA for fear that people will seek revenge once they are ex-pol. History has taught us that those leaders who want to build an empire that lasts for generations are those that are capable of committing the most terrible evil to people.

Anonymous said...

Evil happens when good men and women stand by and do or say nothing.

Ⓜatilah $ingapura⚠️ said...

@anon 357:

>> History has taught us that those leaders who want to build an empire that lasts for generations are those that are capable of committing the most terrible evil to people.

True, there's always that danger.

However that has not occurred in Singapore. Sure, you can complain about the government, and of course there will be cronyism here and there (c'mon, this is Asia lah. We invented cronyism :-) ), but you can hardly say the place is "falling apart". In general, the society is stable, people are productive and SAFE.

Singapore's "benign dictatorship" has delivered enormous benefits, albeit at huge costs too.

Realities of life:

1. There is no "free lunch"
2. Not everyone can be happy, with everything, all of the time.

Ⓜatilah $ingapura⚠️ said...

@438:

Sorry to be nit picky and pedantic:

>> Evil happens when good men and women stand by and do or say nothing.


Actually "evil" (if you believe in such things), PREVAILS when no one does jack shit about it.

Whether you like it or not, sooner or later some human, or an amok group of them, will commit "evil". You have no control over someone elses human nature and the choices that nature generates.

Abao said...

Posts like this highlight the negative views that big countries tend to view another.

Human nature at its best.

Anonymous said...

'There is no "free lunch"'

- does not seem to apply to the MIW. They not only have free lunch but also free travelling and sex among many other branded stuff. Do one really think they are ten times more wise that they are entitled ten times more wages? There are lots of free stuff so long as one manages to fool people.

Anonymous said...

'Not everyone can be happy, with everything, all of the time'

- we are not even talking about being happy. we are talking about being treated with dignity like a human not slaves, serfs, garbages that you just dump at some third world cumtree once useful life runs out.

Anonymous said...

America, china, europe and russia should just join hands and take over the whole world especially those useless regimes in SEA. They can do it very easily, probably without a war.

Anonymous said...

How must dignity when dignity is measured in how much money you have?

Anonymous said...

Mr Mati (Die); The hot air baboon who knows everything about nothing.

Ⓜatilah $ingapura⚠️ said...

@931:

>> Mr Mati (Die); The hot air baboon who knows everything about nothing.

I agree. Don't waste your time. Better for you to get a life -- perhaps take up a hobby, or do some charity work.

@904:

>> we are talking about being treated with dignity like a human

Science has come a long way in being able to quantify and analyse human happiness. "Happiness" is simply an indicator that one is secure and content in one's life -- and there are many factors which interact to contribute to an overall feeling of "happiness"; including genetics, personal relationships, world view etc etc.

Ref: Video 1: Dan Gilbert | Video 2: Daniel Kahneman (Nobel Laureat 2011) | Book: Tim Wilson "Redirect"

Since "happiness" is an indicator, it would probably not be possible for you to be happy if you think you're being treated poorly. However, what you think is often flawed ;-)

>> not slaves, serfs, garbages that you just dump at some third world cumtree once useful life runs out.

You have to decide how you want to be treated, and then accept no alternative. If you don't, you might find people stomping and shitting all over you. How others treat you is no "guarantee" -- it is a 2 way street. You have to make the first move in treating others the way you want to be treated, and then see what happens. If the other party is disrespectful given your best efforts, then it is up to you to stay, or to sever/ terminate the relationship.

"No one can make you feel bad without your permission."

>>'There is no "free lunch"'

- does not seem to apply to the MIW.


Yes it does. You're paying for their lunch ;-) Someone ultimately has to pay. Nothing is "free". Even the MIW have to apply some effort and cunning to get you to "pay for their lunch".

Anonymous said...

Mr Mati (Die); The defensive hot air baboon with very thin skins who knows everything about nothing.

Anonymous said...

Oh no ! another suicideal news for CHINA.

US defence ministry at 五角大楼 now wants to lease a 13ha of land in the Pacific not far to the north-east of Guam

to close the gap of CHINA ENCIRCLEMENT lah !

Their defence minsters were shaking hand only two days ago at 五角 between Mr Chang Wanquan and Chuck Hagel

Anonymous said...

China is building up Yong Xing island 永兴岛

only 2.1kmq but comes with a 2,700-metre runway

much smaller than the Saipan island US is eyeing

that comes with a new airstrip for their FA -18

Anonymous said...

Suicidal plans against China include regular deployments from Australia darwin bases, Changi East airbase Spore, Korat airbase Thailand, trivandrum india, Cubi Pinoy

but one doubts Malaysia and Indonesia would open their air field to US combat jets against China as part of a plan revealed by US airforce general

Anonymous said...

Govt denies US plan to station military aircraft in India

Tag: China, US Air Force, defence bases, US military aircraft





Latest news from INDIA

Govt denies US plan to station military aircraft in India
Last Updated: Thursday, August 22, 2013, 20:38

New Delhi: A top US Air Force official's remarks that his country is planning to station a military aircraft in

Thiruvananthapuram as part of its policy of encircling China with defence bases has created flutters here and the government has dismissed any such possibility.

General Helbert 'Hawk' Carlisle, the Commander of the US Air Force assets in the Pacific, had told reporters at a breakfast meeting recently that the American Air Force was planning to expand its presence in Asia as part of the 'pivot to Asia' policy. The idea behind it is to ring China with US and allied forces.

"This is just the start of the Air Force's plan to expand its presence in Asia. In addition to the Australian deployments, the Air Force will be sending jets to Changi East air base in Singapore, Korat air base in Thailand, Trivandrum in India, and possibly bases at Kubi Point and Puerto Princesa in the Philippines and airfields in Indonesia and Malaysia," he was quoted as saying by the Foreign Policy magazine and other media outlets.


Top Defence Ministry sources said the Ministry is not discussing with the US any plans to base its assets on Indian soil.

"India is not going to allow any foreign country to establish any military base on its soil," the sources said.

"India carefully maintains ties with countries in the world. As a policy, we are not part of any military and do not intend to be part of any in future as well," they said.

Reacting critically to the US move, the CPI-M said the remarks of the US Air Force General reveals the Pentagon's plans to draw India into its strategic alliance in Asia.

Anonymous said...

India govt was fast in its reaction

Times of India :
No foreign power be allowed to set up military base on Indian soil: Govt

Ⓜatilah $ingapura⚠️ said...

@1256:

No need lah. The US Navy already have a very happening base at Diego Garcia. Yes, they have ordnance and stealth aircraft there.

Diego Garcia is British territory. US military is "allowed" to conduct its "activities"

SIA is the only commercial operator allowed to fly there. Civilian contractors, military on R & R fly there ex-Singapore.

Anonymous said...

Indian defence minister is not in favour to contain China

Defence minister India AK Antony has already held that while India is all for further cranking up bilateral defence cooperation with countries like the US, it clearly does not want to be part of any grand design to "contain China" in the region.

==============================

What is SG defence minister stance on this ??

Anonymous said...

news sources

the grand plan ?

The chief of the Pacific air forces under the US military’s Pacific Command, General Herbert “Hawk” Carlisle.

As a lieutenant general before he took over his current command, he had led the US delegation at an executive steering group meeting of the Indian and US air forces.

“So, as I envision it, as I talk about expanded engagement, a lot of our rebalance is a rotational presence through the Pacific. And obviously we’ll maintain our capability in Northeast Asia. In a lot of ways we’ll increasingly move south and west with the rotational presence. Darwin, Tindal, (Pilbara), Changi East in Singapore, Korat in Thailand, Trivandrum in India.… The most capable platforms will be rotated into the Asia-Pacific,” the general was quoted by Foreign Policy and other magazines as telling journalists at a breakfast meeting.

Carlisle said the US was not setting up new bases in the Asia-Pacific but would continuously “rotate” its military assets in a revival of a “Checkered Flag” policy from the years of the Cold War.

He said that during the Cold War, the US rotated all its military units from the Continental US (Conus) to Europe. That would now be done for the Asia-Pacific.

denk said...

so how many copies of this dud
is sg buying ?
http://bbs.wforum.com/wmf/bbsviewer.php?trd_id=238083