Counting the 24 to go

Hsien Loong in his press interview confirmed that 24 new candidates would be introduced in the next GE, which also means that 24 of the current batch in Parliament would have to quit. Actually not, only 17 would be quitting if we count the 7 seats taken up by the WP.  Again it may not be 17 if the Gov thinks this country is too big and needs another few more MPs in Parliament. This is still an unknown variable.

Assuming that the Parliament remains at 87 seats then we can count on 17 PAP incumbents to vacate their seats and stand down in the next GE. Now who would be the lucky ones that could step down on a winning card, and not stepping down because they lost in a GE? Let me make a wild guess starting from the slate of ministers. If membership to the CEC is an indication, those ministers that were not in could be likely candidates to miss the boat when it leaves the port.

Of the 18 ministers, only 4 were not in the CEC, Lim Hng Khiang, Vivian, Lui Tuck Yew, Grace Fu, and Iswaran.  Lim Hng Khiang looks like a very tired minister after having been in office for more than 20 years. Vivian and Lui have been in the hot seats and affected by many bad publicities. These 3 could very well be stepping down. Iswaran is new and being out of the CEC is quite normal. On the other hand some ministers in the CEC may also offer to step down for health or personal reasons. Boon Wan and Swee Say have openly talked about it. So, all in we can count on a max of 3+2 ministers to leave politics.

This leaves 12 MPs to be let go. And again, those in the CEC are likely to be favoured MPs and can safely be counted to be in.  Assuming that the oldies would be the first on the list to retire, this would count MPs like Charles Chong, Arthur Fong, Cedric Foo, Chok Tong, Inderjit, LKY, Teo Ho Pin, Lily Neo and the ex ministers Wong Kan Seng, Mah Bow Tan and Raymond Lim, making a group of 11.

And we have a balance of 1 left to be dropped. Who is the possible candidate? Who is the likely one to make up the last of the 17? Anyone offering to step down for personal reasons? Anyone involved in controversies and bad publicity? Baey Yam Keng and Seng Han Thong have been heard to be considering retirement. That would leave the rest safe to stay on for another term.

I think the above list is likely to be the candidates that would be laid off in the next GE. Some may think of a few newer candidates that social media were unhappy with would likely to go, but I think they will be safe as there are already too many candidates that are due to quit politics for the above considerations. Intan would be safe, Tin Pei Ling, Lee Bee Wah, Irene Ng, Alvin Yeo, Lim Wee Kiat, and whoever that drew fierce criticisms by the social media would also be safe.

This is just my guess and I swear that I am likely to be wrong in 50% of these guesses. The above considerations do not take into account the Aljunied factor that may need a few of the existing MPs or Ministers to be specially retained just to take back the GRC or to spare the agony for being chosen to fight there.


Anonymous said...

Doesn't matter who are the PAP 24, 17 or what not numbers that will come and go next GE lah.

What matters is that PAP will still have a 93% chance of retaining all the seats that it won in GE 2011. Simply because 60%, except for those in areas won by WP last GE and BE, are very scared to accidentally vote PAP out because WP is not ready to be govt.

Which means that even the better known opposition Sinkies like Aung Juan Soon Chee and Hainan Ah Ko, and also not being from WP, will have almost zero chance of being elected. So most likely, just like the 90+ old PAP MP, will see their retirement from politics after next GE.

So given the above, the next GE, just like the last GE, is unlikely to be as exciting as some Sinkies may hope lah.

Anonymous said...

Never mind who is in or out,
the final result of the coming
election is likely to be:

PAP 68% vs 32% OPPS

What say U?


Anonymous said...

...60%....are very scared to accidentally vote PAP out because WP is not ready to be govt.
Anon 10:11 am

Who knows, maybe Teochew Ah Hia will announce his party is ready to be govt after Nomination day?

Because even if Ah Hia is ready, also not a good strategy to announce it too soon what, tio bo? What if also kena hamtam too soon by PAP master strategist Kee chiu, then how?

Anonymous said...

redbean Ah Chek

Yr blog very popular !
Within 25 minutes of posting,
already got 3 commentators...
or just 1 ?

Anonymous said...

Winners win
because they know that they will win.

Losers lose
because they fight and TRY to win.

I think LTK is very wise.

Anonymous said...

PAP 68% vs 32% OPPS
Anon 10:17 am

Why not, with more new Sinkies, PGP etc, and overall things are better now for daft Sinkies, and PAP now is also better than the PAP in GE 2011.

Anonymous said...

Many cry father cry mother in the net but in the end everything will be status quo.

Anonymous said...

Hsien Loong aready said. Singaporeans want PAP to continue to rule. The msm also said so.

What did the social media say?

Anonymous said...

RB should write a post on spotting which ministers and MPs would join company of George Yeo after the next GE.

Anonymous said...

SG 50.
Let's target to have at least 50 Opposition MPs in parliament.
No more than 50 PAP MPs in parliament.

b said...

sounds like quite a big change and several new faces. will feature youknowlah grandson?

Anonymous said...

Will there be more constituencies?
I was up at Cameron Highlands recently and was surprised to find out that Cameron Highlands is a bit bigger than Singapore and that it is the smallest constituency in state of Pahang.

Anonymous said...

Actually hor!
many things also bigger than Singapore or Lee Kuan Yew.

But not many people paid a million dollar salary from taxpayers lah!
This one is uniquely Singapore.

patriot said...

I believe that a few more constituencies will be created.
It is a strategy the Incumbent Regime is likely to resort to. So the Number of PAP Parliamentarians to be laid off as forecast by Redbean is likely to be lower.


patriot said...

They will also plan and create a few more multi million dollar posts for some of their Outgoing Members.
Should PAP retains the Majority in the Next General Election, no party will be able to unseat them in subsequent polls.


Anonymous said...

Redbean, you forgot to add Mr Hawazi Daipi - Senior Parliamentary Secretary, Ministry of Education & Ministry of Manpower.

He is going to retire before next GE.