Investing or gambling in India

 Many states have invested in India and many have pulled out, crawled out with bruises all over them. Many western corporations too have gone in and out and made a lot of losses before calling it a day, knowing that the unfathomable rules and Indian ways of doing business are beyond them to comprehend and to make money from their investments. Indian laws are very watery and very flexible and very like the American's so called rules based order. There are laws and there are lawlessness depending on which side you are in.

But India is still very attractive in the long term. It still has a lot of room to grow, a lot of potential, a lot of people, a lot to build and improve. India has a lot of everything to those looking for opportunities to invest. Many see India as the next China and are willing to jump in as the first mover to reap big profit should India becomes the next China. India has many similarities with China and expecting India to be like China is a reasonable hope. Of course there are differences, especially in the culture and politics of India. And there is this great democracy that India boasts about, the greatest asset of India and also the biggest trap for foreign investors.

Modi has set 2030 for India to be a developed country. This is good news for all investors and believers. To achieve this goal, India must move very fast, must change very fast. The India of yester years would not do. China is lucky in a way, with a central govt that could make quick decisions and move things quickly, central planning and top down policies, something that a great democracy like India would be difficult to do. The Chinese people would accept top down decisions with lesser resistance. The Chinese culture of respecting authority, the central govt, are a plus which India would never be able to do.

For the optimists, there is always hope and a brighter future to look forward to. Investing in India is a long term process, and can be a very long term process, maybe a never ending process. There are many sink holes and quagmires in India that investors would have to navigate very carefully. Many of these are unpredictable but obvious and investors are wary of.

So far not many investors, private or state, have been successful investing in India. Have not heard of a foreign investor making it good in India. No success story to tell. Only Indian companies are successful with foreign capital, ie easy money. For individual or state investors, when the going is tough, keep going, keep throwing in more money and hoping for the best. To some, when too much have been sunk in India, it is a road of no return. It is like gambling in a sense. Pulling out is not an option as the losses are colossal and too frightening to tell. So just keep throwing more money into the bottomless pit and hope for the best, hoping that there will be light at the end of the tunnel.  If not, just stay invested and keep pretending that all is well and one day, not sure if that day will come, one day they will be able to recoup their massive losses.

Investing in India needs a lot of fat hope and a lot of money to lose. And it is really a long term investment, maybe for decades and generations to come, before one can see profit, if it ever comes. As long as one stays invested, as long as one has the money to keep investing, no one would know the losses.

India is a place where angels would not dare to tread. Only the exceptionally brilliants, or the hopefuls, or the gamblers, would dare to risk their money in India. Hopefully the money they risked is not their own money, but OPM. When OPM is concerned, just keep gambling and hoping, all will be fine in the long run, in the long, long run. If not, just run.

There is always the possibility that India would be another China in the long run. Modi's target is 2030, not very long to wait. If Indians can run all the top American companies, then Indians can surely turn India into like American companies. The US is a big democracy just like India. Only difference is that American democracy came after the country got rich from looting and stealing other people's land and resources and massacring the natives of the land. India is a democracy before it comes rich, and had its resources and wealth stolen by the likes of the Americans, ie the same AngloSaxon Brits. And also had its people massacred by the British.

Who has more problems? Xi or Biden?

The unravelling Ohio train disaster is starting to be a topic that the USA Government originally had been trying very hard to suppress, with balloongate taking top attention by the USA Government to divert attention over the environmental disaster unfolding, Biden's hidden documents, Hunter's laptop, Biden's involvement in blowing up the Nord Stream pipelines, and the perceived failure of all the sanctions against Russia. What is less prominentaly discussed is the effect of those sanctions hitting the EU more than Russia. It backfired badly.

Toxic chemicals are now said to be leaking into groundwater and acid rain is forming over a wide area. Social media is now covering the disaster widely, with mainstream journalists arrested earlier on the pretext of interfering with Government people fighting the chemical leak. The long term disastrous effect is unknown, but will certainly not be admitted.

By the way, another train derailement occurred in Texas, also carrying toxic chemicals. This is the result of infrastructures not being propertly maintained, which is going to haunt the USA going forward. They have an unending flow of money for the Ukraine War, US$350 million (originally it was US$350 billion) for Digital Transformation of Africa, US$150 million for buying patrol boats for ASEAN, US$600 billion (US$200 billion from USA) for global infrastructure developments to compete with the BRI, but unable to have money to refurbish their falling infrastructures. Besides the real money flowing into Ukraine, the rest of the planned aid are probably just basically hot air that never got off the ground.

Anonymous

 

PS. Biden alleged that Xi has more problems. 

Yeah, Xi is trying to find time to meet foreign heads of state visiting China. Big problem. 

Xi also trying to find time visiting the villages to greet the Chinese people Happy Chinese New Year.  Big problem to meet 1.4b people across the China.

Lawrence Wong's 'bee tang' Budget for everyone

 

Singaporeans would be receiving a whole year of cash, vouchers and rebates from the govt. Please say thank you. I got a feeling the GE is around the corner. A few billion from the reserves would be shared with adult Singaporeans.  Not sure how much is this compares to the numerous of tax increases collected.  Also not sure if these are enough to offset the inflating of prices of everything, especially the hawker food in food courts and hawker centres. 

What do you think?

The good news is that the largese would be for Singaporeans only, not PRs or locals that are not Singaporeans. The bad news, many PRs or locals would want to become Singaporeans to dilute the population with more foreigners. Not sure if foreigners given citizenship effective today would also be entitled to the handouts that came from our reserves or from taxpayers' money.

Vote for more good years!

When Taiwan returns to China

Taiwan is now touted as the next Ukraine. Do the Taiwanese want to be the next Ukraine? A small section of the Taiwanese is still high on western drugs, hallucinating about a separate Taiwan and can live happily ever after. They did not know that their good life today is dependent on China. China has been very kind and very generous towards the Chinese people in Taiwan, just like it has been very kind and generous towards Hong Kong. Both Taiwan and Hong Kong would be economically crippled should China decide to turn off the tap.  Their geography did not give them a chance to survive on their own when China imposes a sea and air blockade. Not a mosquito could break through such a dragnet.

An independent Taiwan is only good for a few individuals in power, for their egos and self interests. An independent Taiwan is not necessarily good for the majority of the people in Taiwan. The drug called Democracy is not a panacea for a good life. Many ex colonial states are struggling to be democratic and prosperous but find it very difficult to do so. The Democracy Trap is actually a colonial misrepresentation, a drug, a make belief that all would be well if a state has a democratic govt. The reality is not so. Even western states are struggling with democracy and may be brought down by democracy. Democracy as a stable political system only came about when the western states were fairly well developed and rich, from the spoils of colonialism and exploitation. Without the largese of colonialism, democracy is at best a three legged chair, unstable and unable to support the economic growth of a state. 

The western powers are trolling with the concept of democracy as the means to a good life, freedom, human rights etc etc. The truth is that democracy is their tool to destabilise and control the developing states. Such states would always be unstable, to be exploited and controlled by the West. They would keep such so called democratic states in a state of limbo and political vex, and be dependent on the goodwill and generosity of the West to prop them up as a forever three legged chair. They would in a way be another form of a colonial state serving another form of colonial master, still the West.

China's experiment, through a lot of trials and tribulation, has slowly seen the emergence of a mixed political and economic system that has proven to be effective in bettering the life of its people. It may not be the perfect formula, but it works. If not, China would not be what it is today and running stronger everyday while the western states are crumbling and turning to dust. 

The Democracy that the Americans are propagating is a lie. Look at what is happening to their domestic condition, look at what is happening to Europe! The whole of Europe is under the dictatorship of the American Empire. Do as you are told and obey. When the Americans said, fight and die, they would fight and die. The Americans even cut off their vital oil and gas from Russia and they dare not even confront the Americans about it, dare not talk about it. And have to buy American gas and oil at 4 times the price and be completely dependent on the Americans and at the coercion of the Americans. 

Is this what the Chinese people in Taiwan want? Ignore the few insane Taiwanese joining forces with the Japanese and half Japanese wanting to turn Taiwan into another Ukraine. The Japanese and half Japanese have nothing to lose even if Taiwan becomes another Ukraine. They can run to Japan or the USA. The majority of the Taiwanese have no where to run to.

When Taiwan returns to China, it would be prosperity all around for the Chinese people in the island. Their children can dream of becoming rich and successful in China and can even aspire to be the President of China, the richest and safetest country in the world.

Ukraine - Treacherous Americans running out of options

The USA and the West are now claiming Russia does not want peace in Ukraine. When peace was within reach, they scuttled it time and again. What are they talking about?

Now that the war is dragging on in Ukraine, with Russia getting ready for the big assault, they are talking about wanting peace, even using the UN for leverage. They had only planned for the war to last for a short spell, with sanctions expected to cripple Russia and causing its quick collapse, and ripe for a regime change. Now, they realised they had it all wrong and could not untangle themselves.

The fact is, they are unable to keep aiding Ukraine without knowing when the war will end, and are generating all kinds of excuses like telling Ukraine they needed months to manufacture tanks for them, fooling Germany to commit tanks to Ukraine like a fool. Now Olaf Schulz is having his testicles caught in seaweed as what the Chinese like to say.

Undoubtedly, Germany is burning its bridges with Russia for eternity. Putin has long memories and he planned his move after bidding his time. Eight years of letting the West play around with the Minsk Agreement, is time enough for him to get ready his stockpile of weapons, and his weapons manufacturing industries are now churning out missiles and weapons that the West found unsettling.

The USA is caught in a bind, tangled up in Europe and unable to pivot towards China. There is only a short time frame for them to capitalise on their slight edge over China overall, but that gap is closing fast. They knew it, but they have to deal with Russia seperately first, and they are finding out the difficulty of doing so the hard way.

With Russia and China sticking together, they USA is unable to have any edge taking both of them together. But destroying Russia is now not a fait accompli and confronting China now is not to its advantage. The USA is roping in Japan, allowing Japan to expand its military to take on China. Japan should remember North Korea is now watching. Neither is Russia unaware.

Anonymous