Everyone knows that 31 Dec 19 was the day China reported the detection of this new unknown virus in Wuhan that affected 41 victims. But when was the first patient got infected, the day this virus started to infect human beans in Wuhan or in the province of Hubei? I will use some assumptions to try to back track and determine when this whole thing got started in Wuhan, Hubei, China.
1. First assumption, incubation period of 5 to 14 days.
2. It would take at least another 14 days for enough people to fall sick, with some dying before someone raise the red flag.
3. It would take at least 7 days for the lab to identify a new virus.
4. It would take 10 to 14 days for more people to be infected and more people dying before the top decision makers were informed.
5. It would take 3 to 7 days before a decision is made at the highest level to inform WHO that a new epidemic is in the making.
6. From the rate in which the disease is spreading, and from many parts of Hubei and China, it is likely that the disease was quite widespread, when confirmed that it is a new strain and very infectious and also deadly, when the report was made to WHO.
From the above assumptions, from the day the virus first struck to the day it was reported to WHO it could be from 43 days to 56 days. Working backwards from 31 Dec 19, the virus could have struck from as early as the first week of November 2019 or mid November 2019. The first infection could be around early November 2019, with 5 to 14 days of incubation and the first outbreak when people started to fall sick at end of November or early December, and seeing the doctors. And it would take about a month for testing, observation, meetings and finally reporting to the top leaders of the govt.
Since the outbreak of this epidemic, there have been many conspiracy theories floating around with some even alleging that the virus was Made In China and escaped from a Chinese lab in Wuhan, but mostly pointing the finger at China as the guilty party. China is to be blamed for this outbreak and the new virus. With China being the one and only guilty party, no one else is to be blamed. Everyone is innocent, including the real culprits that planted the virus in Wuhan.
Below are some information of an international military game held in Wuhan from 18-27 Oct 2019. Notice that more than 300 American soldiers/athletes were in Wuhan during this period and probably could stay on for another week of R & R in the city, visiting all the famous tourist spots, including the famous wildlife market.
WUHAN, Oct. 15 (Xinhua) -- A group of 17 athletes from the U.S. Armed
Forces has arrived at the airport in the central Chinese city of Wuhan
for the up-coming 2019 Military World Games here on Monday midnight. About 300 athletes from the United States are expected to arrive in the next 2 days.
Mark Juliano, a U.S. archery and taekwondo player, said he believed
his compatriots would do very well in events like running sports,
triathlon, archery and taekwondo....
"You developed world-class venues and I can't wait to experience the
Games," he said, adding that he also planned to visit several local
scenic spots, including the Yellow Crane Tower and a buddhist temple....
The Military World Games is a multi-sport event that has taken place
every four years since 1995. The 7th Games runs from the 18th to 27th of
October in Wuhan.
Notice the coincidence of the presence of American soldiers in Wuhan and the start of this deadly and infectious disease after they left? And of course none of the American soldiers were infected or fell ill because of it. The American soldiers were innocent angels participating in a military sporting event and left after having a good time in Wuhan, without leaving anything behind or knowing what had happened after they left the city.
