ASML is the last hurdle to cross and China will leap over in a few years

There is going to be a battle for propaganda generation using AI moving forward. That is not mainstream news now, but it will be soon. It is already quite evident watching videos on Youtube, and China has to ensure USA AI models do not penetrate the minds of the Chinese. Western AI models will be used as alternatives to conventional spying and espionage methods if China has to enact stringent rules and regulations like it did against USA apps like Google and Youtube. Saying that is probably underestimating the Chinese awareness of what the USA is trying to do. It is now apparent in countries elsewhere of cyberattacks using AI, though still not reported in China due to limited usage.

Having said that, China is making AI cheap and able to proliferate in the Global South, while USA AI models cannot compete to fabricate propaganda widely, owing to its high cost of usage and adoption in poorer countries. That is going to dictate who will win the propaganda war in the Global South in the coming years.

The USA can ban all Chinese AI models in the country, but China is probably unfazed. What do 340 million people matter in a world of 8.3 billion? Taking in the Europeans just make a little more of a billion of Anglo-Saxon Whites. In any case, the redneck and hillbillies have already been brainwashed for decades, so un-washing their thinking is difficult and impossible.

Let me talk about ASML, the maker of EUV machines, whose position is not infallible. ASML depends on a wide global supply chain of more than 5,000 companies, spread out over Europe, North America and Asia. China holds just one aspect of that supply chain - rare earth magnets. The direct consequential impact of sanctions on ASML by China may be minimal and tolerable with alternative sources of rare earth magnets for the Dutch company. However, some of those entities that provide the supply chain elements for EUV machines for ASML also depends on China's rare earth. So, it is going to be who is the final arbiter of who gets to be punished more severely eventually and indirectly.

ASML will never reveal the shortcomings of its supply chain. Moreover, China just needs time to overcome its chip-making reliance on ASML. The estimate is that China will be able to commercially produce its EUV machines by 2030. That is just four years away as against the prediction of a ten-year lag time. We shall see.


Anonymous