Electricity tariff in Singapore versus oil price

Hsien Loong startled the audience of his National Day speech asking the people to ‘kee chiu’ if they think electricity tariff is lower than 10 years ago. Many got it wrong, believing that electricity today is higher instead of lower. He then showed two graphs, one on electricity tariff and another on oil price to show the complementarity of the movements of the two items. When oil price is up, tariff is up. The audience was astonished that electricity price today was lower than 10 years ago. Hsien Loong supplement his discovery with this statement:

‘”Describing the issue of electricity tariffs as “more complicated”, he noted that the current rate of 23.65 cents/kwh is more affordable than it was in the third quarter of 2008 at 25.07 cents/kwh.

’––Singapore’s electricity tariffs are dependent on the fluctuations in oil prices as the nation uses natural gas – all imported – to generate almost all of its electricity, he explained.’  Yahoo News

Many in the audience or watching the TV must be amazed for seeing that electricity tariff has actually gone down and their perception was wrong, that electricity price is high.  Here are the two charts.

For flashing the two charts in a speech and giving the audience very little time to ponder and understand what they were shown is a clever way of getting one’s point across. Now we have a bit more time reading the charts and see what they meant and whether they really made sense. Yes, the tariff is lower today, 23.65 cents against 25.07 cents. What about the relative oil prices for the respective time? I could not figure out the scale of the above oil price chart. To me the numbers were funny. Below is a 10 year oil price chart by Macrotrends.net. Oil price peaked in 2008 to US$140 per barrel and hit a low of US$30 in 2009 and below US$30 in 2015.

Oil price in 2008 was $140 per barrel against $60 per barrel today. If electricity tariff is to fluctuate in sync with oil price, when the oil price is halved, should not the electricity tariff be halved as well or somewhere near there? The 23.65/25.07 numbers showed that electricity tariff has fallen by 1.42 cents or 5.66%! Should it not be bigger for the 80/140 or 57%  difference in price of oil? The latter is the percentage of change  when oil price fell from $140 to $60.

Yes they both swing in the same direction but the quantum is vastly different. Does it make sense that one changed by 57% and one by 1.42%?

What is the problem with the numbers? What is the problem with the charts? Should the people be happy that electricity prices have fallen by 1.42%? Or should it go down by a bigger percentage? Why is the fall so miniscule?

The above chart shows the prices of oil over the last 10 years. The chart Hsien Loong presented showed the prices of electricity of the same period but the fluctuation is not more than 5 cents each way.

Mahathir just gives Singapore a second chance

Mahathir has cancelled the US$20b East Coast HSR in Malaysia. Without this rail link, the super port in Malacca and the ports on the east coast would become white elephants and likely to be cold storage. The whole concept of these two mega projects is to make Malaysia the gateway to China and Europe by high speed train. Now the train would stop in Thailand, likely at the Isthmus of Kra. Cancelling the East Coast HSR would mean cancelling the port projects on both sides of peninsula Malaysia as well. All other projects linked to the BRI would become meaningless and likely to end abruptly. The Kra Canal project would take precedence now for China to by pass the Straits of Malacca and the port of Singapore.

The Kra Canal project is very costly and would take years to contruct and build and is a project that China would not want to commit if given a choice. This is a window of opportunity for Singapore to reposition itself as a major shipping node in the BRI. As far as Malaysia is concerned, even though Mahathir said he supports the BRI, Malaysia is out of the game. Whether Singapore can ease its way into the vacuum left by Malaysia would depend on what the Singapore govt is going to do to assure China that its interests would not be compromised by the American military presence in Singapore.

Here comes the tricky question. What is Singapore going to do to balance the American presence in the city state that virtually controls the shipping through the Malacca Strait? Two obvious choice, by allowing the Americans to continue to be in the island and also allow the Chinese to have similar access for their warships under the same terms as the Americans, nothing more nothing less. Another option is to ask the Americans to vacate Changi which is going to be a tough ride. Once in, the Americans would not be easy to leave this strategic little corner, just like their presence in Japan, South Korea and Iraq. They would not leave without a fight.

The future of Tuas mega port and Singapore's shipping and logistic industry would depend on how Singapore plays its cards. China has other options other than the Kra Canal. Qwadar in Pakistan and Myanmar ports would be fully developed to take on the role of channelling oil from the Middle East to China, by passing the Straits of Malacca if all else failed. Singapore must not think that China has no where else to go but come begging to use Tuas. This is a great opportunity that Singapore must seize and take full advantage of before Mahathir knows what he is doing and change his mind or step down and Anwar takes over to revive a dying Malaysian economy that is being bypassed by China's BRI.

For the moment Mahathir has chosen to go it alone. If Singapore is smart, it must quickly chope the vacated seat by selling to China all the favourable terms it can offer for Chinese ships to come calling at Tuas. Singapore would not have another chance if this window of opportunity is closed again. And it can close as quickly as it is opened now.

Would Singapore seize the moment and turn it to its favour?

On what ground are the American soldiers in Syria...and Iraq?

WASHINGTON: The United States said Friday it is suspending US$230 million budgeted for stabilisation projects in Syria, citing the aid pledged by other partners in the coalition against the Islamic State group.

'The president has made clear that we are prepared to remain in Syria until the enduring defeat of (IS), and we remain focused on ensuring the withdrawal of Iranian forces and their proxies," she said....

Brett McGurk, the special White House envoy to the coalition against IS, said the militant group has been cleared from some 99 per cent of its former territory in Syria and that preparations for the final phase of the campaign are being made.

He said stabilisation operations involving demining, restoration of water and power supplies and other basic needs are well underway in recaptured areas....

"We are focused on stabilisation, getting people back to their homes," McGurk said....' Channel News Asia

From the above reports, how many of you noticed the hypocrisy and evilness of the Americans in their undeclared war in Syria, the occupation of Syrian territories by American soldiers and the red herring that they are going to stabilise and restore facillities in Syria...without having to ask the Syrian Govt and people.  They talked as if Syria is a state of the USA and they can do whatever they like in that country.

Before we get misled by this American rhetoric one must remember who planted the ghost of IS in Syria and used it as an excuse to send troops into Syria to fight IS and terrorism, without the consent or invitation of the Syrian Govt?  And after destroying 90 percent of Syria with their unrestrained bombings, they are now telling the world that they are the white knights, the angels that are there to stabilise and rebuild Syria, the country they bombed to Stone Age by inserting IS terrorists into Syria.

Get it? See how the evil and wicked schemes of the Americans are being played up in Syria and the rest of the Arab and African countries, including Afghanistan and Pakistan, to justify their military invasion of these countries, unilaterally, as the Evil Empire that rules over these countries.This is now a text book formula for American invasion of independent countries by inserting their IS terrorists and insurgents to create some kind of fear and terrorist acts. Then they will come marching in and occupy the countries so decided by them.

The Americans are in these countries not to fight IS or terrorists but to conduct regime change, to dethrone the legitimate govt of the countries and install their puppets to take over the countries.

And you have some European leaders crying crocodile tears over Syria and other Arab countries. Read this, also reported in CNA.

'PARIS: French President Emmanuel Macron and German Chancellor Angela Merkel voiced concern on Friday (Aug 17) about the humanitarian situation in the rebel-held Syrian region of Idlib, which is shaping up be the country's next big battleground....

They also called for an "inclusive political process to allow lasting peace in the region".'

In the first place there was peace in Syria and other Arab countries like Iraq and Libya. It is the Americans and the Europeans, former colonial masters, that started the wars in these countries.  They started the wars, bombed and burnt down the countries and now calling for peace. What the fuck. And no one is questioning them for their irresponsible acts and crimes against humanity in these Arab countries.

They are the good guys!!!!

Latest, the Americans announced that they would be in Iraq for as long as they are needed. Who decides that? The Americans of course. But Iraq is an independent country, not a state of the USA. Not any more. After using the excuse of WMD to invade Iraq, Iraq is now a part of the American Empire. The Iraqis have lost their territorial sovereignty. The Americans are their new masters.

Crazy Rich Politicians

Crazy Rich Asians is screening to full house in the US, Singapore and neighbouring countries. It is a bit of fresh air on the dull thinking of Asians that rich people are angmohs and Asians are poor. It used to be when they came to plunder our wealth and took away everything they wanted and needed to build European cities. The Asians, particularly those influenced by Confucianist culture, tend to be low key and would hide their wealth to the extend that not many people know they are filthy rich.

The SPGs need to wash their heads, not brains, for thinking that only angmohs are rich. The crazy Anton or Anton crazy believed he is rich. Wait till he has watched the Crazy Rich Asians and he would not know where to hide.The rich people here, with some exceptions, are the Crazy Rich Asians. SPGs, please readjust your homing device, aim at the Crazy Rich Asians or politicians.

The Crazy Rich Asians may be crazy on the screen. But the really crazy ones are the rich politicians. Anyone see the politicians behaving like the crazy rich Asians, flaunting their wealth? No, they would not dare to. It is political suicide. But everyone knows that they are filthy rich, many are multi millionaires or billionaires. But they walked around like paupers, no flashy cars but production line cheap Mercedes and BMWs at most. No Richard Mille or Parmigiani, Hublot, Blvgari, no diamond rocks or moon rocks hanging on their necks.

But Singapore is the place for the rich to flaunt their wealth. They are completely safe, they would not be robbed or kidnapped for doing that. And for the politicians, there are more reasons to show off what they owned, having earned them honestly, legally and cleverly with their above mediocre talents. Why called themselves natural aristocrats when they moved around like hoi polloi? Aristocrats must look like aristocrats, must look rich, look classy and a bit snobbish, speaking with a stiff upper lip.

At least there is one such politician that is not pretentious for displaying his real worth. Unfortunately a minority of loud mouth Singaporeans are filled with envy and showing scorn when they see his beautiful stately white Bentley parked at his country club. For goodness sake, owning a Bentley is not a crime and the politicians deserve it. If politicians cannot effort to drive Bentleys, who else can afford? Some are criticizing him for this inappropriate showing of wealth as an MP. How disgusting, I mean the critics. This man made his fortune, not inherited old rich. He is an MP, a politician, a multi millionaire and not a mediocre man. He is entitled to live well and enjoy his wealth.

What, would it be better if people like him pretend to be poor, hiding all their wealth under their beds and eating in hawker centres? Would they then look like hypocrites, pretenders, fakes, dishonest, not genuine? I rather the politicians be honest and strut around, or move around in their Bentleys and Rolls Royces or in luxury toy cars that cost millions.

Is this not about transparency, about honesty, about meritocracy, not hiding anything? There is also a saying, money not spent is not yours. Why work so hard to earn so much money and wanting more every day, but not spending, afraid to spend the money? Is this not crazy? 

There could be good reasons for some wealthy people to hide their wealth when the source of their wealth is less than clean or respectable. But the politicians here earn their money in the most honest way one can think off. Not by cheating, stealing or conning the people, not be illegal means. They should be proud of their wealth. They deserve every cent they earned and no one shall gripe about them living well, living very well. It is really crazy and silly for having so much money and not using the money to enjoy a better life, a Swiss standard of living. And worse, to be accused of pretending to be poor or not rich and so insincere.

What do you think?

PS: Happy Hari Raya to all Singaporeans.

Foreigners setting agenda for serious discussion in local media

17 Aug, I looked through the few pages next to the editorial column of the ST where more serious articles are posted, not the kind like who is eating what, which dog is prettier or why we should not feed the birds or monkeys, I noticed that only one or at best two articles were written by Singaporeans. Perhaps another one or two could be new citizens or PRs. This is the pathetic state of news reporting and journalism in Singapore, just like IT and banking, Singaporeans not good enough. In news reporting, Singaporeans would be good enough to write about hawker foods and Michelin stars or sports.
 
Two articles got me reading to see the agenda of the writers, one, ‘That China worry, again by Ravi Veloor and another, ‘China’s trouble economy a bigger worry…’ by a Suchir Sharma. Not dissimilar to the western media’s China bashing, the two biased western coloured lens articles, if you are to believe in them, had one theme, China is in big big trouble.
 
Ravi Veloor started by laughing at Alibaba for having only a market value of US$440 billion, far behind Apple’s US$1 trillion and close competitor Amazon. And this is the fault of Xi for the bad relations with the USA. He would not want to tell you that Alibaba has only recently been listed in the NY Stock Exchange and has a history of a couple of decades old at most while Apple and Amazon have more than double, triple or quadruple the history of Alibaba.
 
He then went on to talk about Trump winning the trade war and China is now faced with a long list of problems. On the other hand the Americans are merrily going around as if nothing is happening, nothing is affecting them. He even went on to say that Xi Jinping is having a lot of trouble at home, his popularity challenged, he is being attacked for causing the trade wars with the USA and would be held responsible for it. Other leaders that were in trouble were Putin and Modi.
 
Trump and the USA have no problem. Trump is having a great ball of a time putting pressure on other countries and leaders. No one is troubling Trump or putting pressure on Trump. The tape recordings of him hiring prostitutes and other saucy stuff are good Sunday morning read, the whole media industry attacking him is only for fun, making enemies of everyone and countries, including traditional allies and national leaders are non issues. Simply said, everything is fine in the USA and in Donald Trump. America is another Disneyland and Donald Trump is the happy Donald Duck.
 
Suchir Sharma’s article dismisses Turkey’s lira problem as chicken feed and claimed that China’s economy is the real problem. As usual, China is in deep economic woes. The greenback is rising and Yuan is falling which can only be good for the Americans and bad for China. And China cannot lower the value of its Yuan to boost export as it would lead to a loss in confidence on the Yuan as a reserve currency. China is in a dilemma. No a weakening of the Yuan is bad for China and the rising value of the dollar is good for the USA. 

The USA is riding high and carefree. The higher the greenback appreciates the better. No, it would not affect American exports. America is in control of everything and everything is in favour of the Americans. The falling Yuan was due to the trade war launched by the Americans, not a deliberate move by China to counter the hike in tariffs.
 
And the greenback is in high demands and the Yuan is not.
 
Reading the two articles, anyone would believe that China as a country is failing apart and would soon be bankrupt and broken up as a lost country. Xi is going to be removed from power. Hip hip horray! Long live the American Empire!
 
Now, are these articles fake news, distorted news or objective and serious intellectual discussions that no Singaporean journalists could produce? What are their agenda and motive for disparaging China with these fishy and loaded views?