Part 5: Thucydides Trap vs Kindleberger Trap

Current Harvard University Professor Joseph S. Nye Jr. who served as the Chairman of the National Intelligence Council between 1993 to 1994 under the Clinton Administration and subsequently as Assistant Secretary of Defense for International Security Affairs between 1994 to 1995, wrote in early Jan 2017 in an article in ProjectSydicate.org before the inauguration (20 Jan 2017) of current US President Donald Trump about what history has in store for him ... The following are extracts from that article:

"As US President-elect Donald Trump prepares his administration’s policy toward China, he should be wary of two major traps that history has set for him. The “Thucydides Trap,” cited by Chinese President Xi Jinping, refers to the warning by the ancient Greek historian that cataclysmic war can erupt if an established power (like the United States) becomes too fearful of a rising power (like China). But Trump also has to worry about the “Kindleberger Trap”: a China that seems too weak rather than too strong.
Charles Kindleberger, an intellectual architect of the Marshall Plan who later taught at MIT, argued that the disastrous decade of the 1930s was caused when the US replaced Britain as the largest global power but failed to take on Britain’s role in providing global public goods. The result was the collapse of the global system into depression, genocide, and world war. Today, as China’s power grows, will it help provide global public goods?
In domestic politics, governments produce public goods such as policing or a clean environment, from which all citizens can benefit and none are excluded. At the global level, public goods – such as a stable climate, financial stability, or freedom of the seas – are provided by coalitions led by the largest powers."

As many foreign ministers and public servants working in foreign affairs would be aware, the current international political system of nation states has existed since the Treaty of Westphalia in 1648. Another renowned Harvard University political scientist at the John F Kennedy School of Government Professor Graham T. Allison Jr. observed in his 2017 book "Destined for War: Can the Americans and China avoid Thucydides Trap?" that since the late 15th century, there were about 16 historical case studies of Thucydides' Trap out of which 75% of them (12 cases) ended up in wars and the remaining 25% (4 cases) avoidance of wars.

In 2015 when China President Xi JinPing met the then US President Barack Obama, President Xi noted in his speech: "The US and China need to work together to avoid Thucydides Trap - destructive tensions between an emerging power and established powers: should major countries time and again make the mistakes of strategic miscalculation, they might create such traps for themselves."

On that, former US President Barack Obama said: "I don't agree with the interpretation of Thucydides Trap that an established power must have conflict with an emerging power. Major powers like China and the US must prevent conflicts as much as possible. I believe the two countries are capable of managing the disagreement."

Alas, when current US President Donald Trump was elected, the first "act" he did was to "shred" the TPP agreement "into pieces" ...

Could US President Donald Trump still have gone ahead with his recent trade walls he erected against several countries' imports ranging from solar panels, refrigerators, steel, aluminium etc if he did not oppose TPP at the outset?

Post by Concerns of a Heartland Sinkie

The Americans lost another war

After Vietnam, the Americans are facing another major defeat in the battle field in Syria. The monster they created in ISIS to destabilize Syria and to remove Assad has been defeated. No longer are these rebels shouting long live the Caliphate. No more new fighters joining their ranks as their dream of a victorious Caliphate has turned to smokes. The invincible ISIS is as good as dead and gone with the few remnants being flushed out of Douma and Ghoutta, thanks to their conspirators, the Americans, working out a deal to let them depart for the little safe enclave in Idlib. Idlib would be the last stand before Assad and the Russians wipe them out for good. But it would be a tough fight against the objections of the Americans, their creator, and the western powers. The evil Americans would do anything possible, under whatever guises, to keep the amber of the dying ISIS burning, to live to terrorrise another day.
 
Thanks to Putin, the Russians put up a strong stand to support Assad at all cost and this has proven to be the decisive factor that saved Assad from being lynched by the Americans and join Saddam and Gaddafi in nether world.
 
Trump did not start this and is happy to call it a day and has announced the withdrawal of American troops from Syria. This would leave Assad and the Russians to clean out all remaining rebels in Syria and bring peace back to this unfortunate country.
 
Russia should not stop at Syria and should continue the offensive to bring about peace in Iraq the same way as in Syria. The American henchmen, the ISIS, are still alive in Iraq and need an all out assault to free Iraq from their clutches and the trouble maker American forces. The Middle East states must save themselves from this perpetual war created by the Americans to make them poor and hapless, to destroy their land and economies and to cripple the Arabs from ever being normal nations and people living in peace. Getting rid of the evil Americans is the only way to bring peace to the Middle East.
 
Russia is now the key, the white knight, to save the Arabs from killing themselves under a constant state of siege and warfare. Only then can they rebuild their countries and their lives and their people living a normal life like the peaceful nations around the world. If they are going to enjoy peace, they must seek the help of the Russians to free them from this American evil trap of perpetual warfare in their homeland. The Syrians have done it, so can the other Arab states. The Middle East must not be forever the land of instability and warfare under the dictate of the evil American Empire.
 
The evil Americans may have been defeated again. But war is in their DNA. They have conceded that they could not win a military war against a people that did not want to be ruled by them. So they have started another war on another front, a trade war with China and the rest of the world.
 
Now which idiot is still saying that the Americans are peaceful people?

Post by Concerns of a Heartland Sinkie - Part 4

As mentioned in late 2016 in MSN and (mentioned) again in early 2017, a head and shoulder trend was formed in terms of the tide of globalisation and at least a 70% chance of an unmistakable trend reversal?

1) 911 marked the "left shoulder"?

2) The 2008 GFC the "head"?

3) And Jun 2016 Brexit & Nov 2016 "Brexit+++" marked the right "shoulder"?

The current wave of globalisation that took off massively in the 1970s could be in reverse gear?

However, way back in late 2014 and again in 2015, the warning sirens of possible de-globalisation was sounded (in MSN) but noboLEE paid any heed (to it)?

As mentioned previously (& repeatedly) in 2014 to 2017 (in MSN), the last cycle of internationalisation (aka globalisation) was in even higher gear than the current but the trade wars that started in the 1890s culminated 2 decades later in the WW1 that saw Pax Britannica ceding its preeminent world policeman role and the global hegemon title was left unfilled ......, can any reader recall? (Pls KEE CHIU ...)

Subsequently, the then world order collapsed in a power vacuum and an anarchic world order ensued.

During those inter-war years (1919-1938), the global economy went into a tailspin, wall street collapsed in 1929 and precipitated the first ever global Great Depression?

The late Professor Charles Kindleberger, in his 1973 book "The World in Depression: 1929-1939", expounded his world famous theory of HST (Hegemonic Stability Theory).

The late Professor passed away in 2003 (at the ripe old age of 92) after the 2nd Gulf War broke out.

The fast recovery of Western Europe was to a large extent due to the late Professor spearheading the then Marshall Plan in the post-war reconstruction.

Many policies that the late Professor advocated that are key determinants of a stable world order are now been "thrown into the incinerator" ...?

The immutable MSN wiseman lao hero wrote in his post dated 4/03/2018: "Hundred Flowers Movement Revisited 百花运动" under the final two short but thundering concluding paragraphs:

Quote

"People who did not know history or learn from the mistakes in history would be condemned to make the same mistakes and bury themselves only to verify that history would repeat itself with their folly.

Thank you very much for a precious but painful lesson in history."

Unquote

Given China's latest retaliatory counter protectionist measures announced this afternoon, a full blown trade blows between the world's 2 top most preeminent economic powers and giants seems unavoidable UNLESS the perpetrator who started this potential full scale trade war back down ...?

In 1985, Sg's founding PM went to Capitol Hill, Washington and spoke in the joint US Congress session [see Youtube video: https://youtu.be/X6CZ3C0niPg], arguing against an oncoming trade war then between the Americans and the Japanese which culminated in the 1987 Plaza Accord and an immediate 30% revaluation of the Yen vis-a-vis the major world currencies in particular the USD but which also subsequently led to the "destruction" of the then world #2 economic powerhouse and the subsequent Japanese economic malaise since 1990 ...?

This time unlikely there will be another iconic world leading figure to thwart the US of firing the 1st trade cannon (which already happened) and more importantly there will not be a repeat of the 1987 "Plaza Accord"?

What next?

Kim Jong Un, the statesman extraordinaire

Praises and accolades are pouring in to acknowledge the achievements and abilities of Kim Jong Un as a maverick statesman to bring North Korea to where it is today. Under his able leadership, North Korea has stood up to all the American aggression and traps to bring the country to its knees. Not only has Kim Jong Un survived the daily military threats of war, the economic sanctions and the threats of a preemptive strike and regime change, he has singlehandedly turned North Korea into a nuclear power, a status that made the Americans hapless and no longer able to threaten him with war with impunity. The possession of nuclear weapons that could reach the USA is the sole factor that now offered Kim Jong Un and his North Korea peace of mind.
 
With his new stature confirmed, Kim is now on a charm offensive, visiting China and agreeing to meet up with the presidents of South Korea and the USA. Kim has out manoeuvred and out foxed the Americans and gained great respect from leaders around the world. This young man is no easy push around, not even by the mightiest evil Empire. Trump would have to meet him and negotiate with him, no more, no less, on equal terms, on Kim’s terms.
 
The rise of Kim Jong Un must have taken a hit on the silly unthinking critics that gobbled up all the nonsense and negative remarks fabricated by the Americans to discredit Kim. No longer is anyone going to talk about the rocket man or using other derogatory labels against Kim. The Americans would have to treat him just like another leader of a nation, with respect. Yes, Kim knew how to talk tough with the Americans, not by words, but by the language that the Americans understood, by possessing nuclear weapons, to be able to hit back.
 
Kim did not get this respect the easy way. Many leaders would have buckled under the daily attacks by the Americans. Saddam and Gaddafi were good examples of leaders that could not stand the pressure of the Americans and could not live to see another day. They were murdered by the Americans. Kim would be around for a long time. Trump and his hawks would quietly be saying to themselves that Kim is a worthy opponent in his own right. Making silly remarks about Kim is not going to be useful anymore.
 
Kim has gained great stature as a national leader that stood up to the Americans and survived and be respected by the Americans and the world.

Back to the past

The official launch of the Singapore Premier League (SPL) last Saturday (31 March 2018) at the National Stadium promised to be a new dawn for Singapore football. This was supposed to mark a resurrection from the embers of the failed S-League but alas there were echos of the past even at this embryonic stage of its young life. And I am not even talking about the football.  I am merely talking about the administration that goes into a simple match.      

On that supposedly auspicious day, as I rushed off bright-eyed and bushy-tailed to attend the season-opening Community Shield match between Albirex Nigata and Tampines Rovers, I decided to “tapow” my dinner with a view to eating it inside the stadium. Bad mistake. At the entrance, I was told that food cannot be brought into the stadium. “No problem”, I said, “I’ll just leave it outside and eat it at half-time”.  “No way”, said the authorities, “You cannot leave the stadium at half-time.  If you leave, you’ll have to buy another ticket to re-enter.  You either eat it now or you eat it after the match”.  That really put me in a fix as it was 2 minutes to the game and I had no wish to choke on my food just to make the kick-off. On the other hand, stuffing down cold food wasn’t exactly an appetizing way of crowning a night-out. At this point, a gentleman who had overheard the conversation kindly offered me a complimentary ticket to re-enter the stadium after my meal.  Thank god there are still sensible souls around!

Later I learned why food could not be brought into the stadium. There were eateries - no doubt paying ceiling-high rentals - inside the stadium and these obviously needed “help” to ensure a captive clientele. I have no issue with this. But why make it difficult for people to leave the stadium during the half-time break? Surely, 15 minutes is too short to queue, buy and consume outside food all at one go?  I came to support Singapore football but left with a sour taste in my mouth.  At a time when Singapore football is in dire need of customers, this was a bad piece of public relations. And as I said earlier, I am not even talking about the football.