Occupy Central – A subversive dimension

The streets of Hongkong erupted with Occupy Central when more than 10,000 protestors put on a show of people power to challenge the centre of power in Beijing. The call or civil disobedience came from an unassuming law don, Dr Benny Tai. Dr Tai was propelled to stardom with his article ‘Civil disobedience, the most lethal weapon’ in his otherwise not very well read weekly column in the newspaper. He is now a household name in Hongkong with the pro democracy movement.
 
The 10,000 strong march, to break the law, came after a mock referendum held to vote for the right to determine who should be the CEO of Hongkong. According to Hongkong correspondent, Li Xueying, Dr Tai was trying to spur democracy by turning to subversion. Could such a tactic be applicable to Sin City? Would any blogger or columnist dare to incite subversion and challenge the govt in its policies?
 
What could be certain is the publicity and politicial stardom, like Roy Ngerng, to be bestowed on the subversive writer. Maybe he/she could be another household name like Roy Ngerng. But that is not all.
 
I doubt there will be anyone who would be tempted or encouraged by Dr Tai to gain publicity in this manner and to spur democracy by calling for a break the law protest like Occupy Raffles Place. Hey, it was done before but there were no 10,000 protestors, not even 10 turned up at Raffles Place. And no one gained instant fame. And the state of democratic movement remains the same as before. There is no tolerance for democractic movement in a democracy. Or is a democracy to start with?

Kopi Level - Green

Only 200 think Hsien Loong not fit to be PM

The protest rally last Saturday at Hong Lim only attracted a small crowd of about 200 people. The issue was that Hsien Loong was not fit to be the PM. The keynote speaker was Goh Meng Seng who listed a number of points on why he thought Hsien Loong was not fit to be the PM.
 
Looking at the number of people listening to him, it was apparent that only 200 people agreed with him. Only 200 people thought Hsien Loong was not fit to be the PM. This compares very poorly to a population of nearly 4m people who did not turn up and thus did not support the motion of the protest rally. In other words, Hsien Loong is fit to be the PM.
 
It would be a different matter if there was a 10,000 crowd or better, 26,000 crowd like the Pink Party, then the message would be different. A 6,000 crowd at the first PWP Protest was also too small to make any difference and 6.9m target would soon be a reality. A 200 protest crowd in this rally is like saying the opposite, the majority of the people are happy with Hsien Loong’s leadership and think him fit to be the PM.
 
For Goh Meng Send and those who have doubts about his suitability, the poor turnout is double confirmed that Hsien Loong is doing well.

Kopi Level - Green

Shinzo Abe, the 21st Century Hitler

Shinzo Abe is revealing himself as the most dangerous man in the 21st Century. His ‘Meiji Restoration’ is militarism, a mirror of Hitler’s Germany. Japan is going to be the new military power and unstoppable. And Abe is likely to have most of the victim countries of Japanese military expansion and invasion of the Second World War supporting him. And Abe is going to tell these countries, ‘We may have invaded your country, defeated your armies, looted your country, raped your women and massacred your people, we now come in peace. Trust Japan!’ And these countries will all say, ‘Yes, Yes.’
 
The Philippines with many Pinoys massacred by the Japanese Imperial Army have already offered their support for the remilitarizing of Japan. Vietnam is next on the list despite being colonized by Japan. The Australians, with many of their soldiers died in the Changi Prison after being interned as prisoners of war, will host Abe and listen to his call to support Japan’s rise as a military power.
 
Who is next? America is a no brainer despite the sinking of their Pacific Fleet in Pearl Harbour. America is the one behind the Japanese remilitarization to counter the rise of China. India is also a likely candidate to support Japan for the same reason. India got a better affinity with the Japanese Imperial Army when Subhas Chandra Bose formed the Indian National Army with the support of the latter against the British.
 
Would Indonesia and Malaysia join the queue to fall in line with Japanese militarism? Singapore is a good friend of Japan and would likely say yes. After all the Singapore govt has made a call to forget about the heinous crimes of the Japanese in WW2.
 
The revival of Japanese Imperialism is a certainty and likely to be welcomed by the American allies and Southeast Asian countries who have all forgotten about the Japanese invasion and atrocities inflicted on their people. They trust the Japanese and the most dangerous man of the 21st Century, Shinzo Abe.
And the Japanese have been telling these former colonies that they have behaved very well after the war. 

What the Japanese did not say is that they had no choice but to behave as they were muzzled and put on a leash by the Americans. If the muzzle had been removed and the leash cut earlier, this beast would have returned to its animal like behavior earlier. Now the Americans have chosen to unleash this beast to run wild against China. And even before the muzzle has been removed, it is snarling at China and Korea and itching for a fight. Abe has reinterpreted the constitution so that Japan can wage wars again!
 
Beware of this beast, a beast is always a beast.

Kopi Level - Green

What you said would not go away

‘Mr Prime Minister, we think that you are still going to be in your position. But when do you think you will retire?
 
A: As soon as there is somebody who is competent to take the job, I should not be here. It’s better for Singapore. If I hang on indefinitely, it will become more complicated.’
 
The above is quoted from an interview with LKY reported in the Asahi Shimbun in 1985. A blogger, Edmund, lifted the article and quoted it in his post ‘Why LKY continues to stay on till today’ in the TRE. Edmund made some interesting commentaries on the reasons for LKY to be still in parliament. What is interesting also is the above quote.
 
As early as 1985, the continued role of LKY as the PM was being questioned, and his departure from politics was a big issue. It was like the media asking LKY when was he going to let someone take over as he had been in politics for an unprecedented period of time. LKY’s reason or excuse to stay on in politics, as the PM, was the lack of an able person to take over the premiership. And he was like the guardian angel, to be there until the next guy was good enough, in his view, to go solo.
 
And, based on what he said above, when he is still around, it means that the incumbent PM is not good enough. When he has no confidence in the incumbent, he just has to keep an eye on him, like a goal keeper, just in case he needs to catch the ball from scoring. Another interpretation is that he had let go the moment he appointed someone else as PM, ie, since Chok Tong became the PM, he had found someone competent for the job of PM. This view will definitely invite alternative views.
 
Since 1985, we have two PMs, and LKY is still around. What does that mean? He is still needed to be safe as the two PMs were not good enough?.
 
There is another contradictory development to his staying in politics. There were comments that his presence in parliament would do more harm than good to the incumbent PM. People who shared this view are saying that he has overstayed and no longer welcomed. If this is true, his self assigned role as the goal keeper or guardian angel is going to be more negative than positive though his intention to guard the goal posts was admirable.
 
What if he has to step down due to old age in the next GE? Does it mean that there is someone ready and good enough that he is confident to leave the scene? Or would he die die want to stay on another term if the incumbent is still not good enough to him?
 
It is really pathetic that after two PMs, nearly 20 years of mentoring, no one is good enough. What is the reason? Poor judgement of the ability of the candidates or simply no talent available that is good enough? Or simply no one is going to fit that pair of big shoes? Maybe this time he would step down completely to affirm that he has found someone good enough to fill his shoes.
 
When God is concerned there can only be one God. No one else can be good enough.

Kopi Level - Green

Remisiers – The disappearing trade

The term remisier is quite unique to Singapore. It refers to a profession or tradesmen who execute buy and sell orders for stocks in the stock market. They used to offer more in the past, with some giving professional advice and opinions, information on stock rumours, speculations and sometimes ‘insider news’ to their clients. The remisiers also took on an intermediary role of extending credit limits for their clients to trade and becoming the first line of defence for the brokerages when a client absconded.

There was a healthy relationship between the clients and the remisiers then. This was in the past before the remisiers were, in a way, relegated to order takers or keyboard operators, not allowed to provide professional advice or recommend stocks to clients. Even providing opinions to clients on the stock market can by a scary thing if a wrong opinion led to complaints to the exchange. This is despite the fact that many remisiers have tertiary education, some in finance, and also certified to practise after passing the required tests stipulated by the Exchange. Remisiers are also required to attend refresher courses annually to keep them abreast with the developments in the industry.

The lowest point was the suggestion to rename remisiers as trade or sales representatives to accord them a level of incompetence or competency appropriate to order takers or keyboard operators. Recent developments led to the remisiers being required to be certified to trade in high risk products like structured warrants, derivatives, equity linked notes and financial products that only high net worth or ‘sophisticated’ clients can participate in and can afford to lose. Both the remisiers and ‘sophisticated’ clients must satisfy the Exchange that they are competent to trade in such high leverage products and would not blame anyone should they incur any losses. Some brokerages have renamed or rebranded their remisiers who have been certified competent to buy and sell such products as Investment Specialists or other more professional sounding names.

The rebranding is in line with the Exchange’s new direction in wanting remisiers to offer more services to their clients. Presumably remisiers who have passed the tests in a couple of new modules offered by the Exchange could now give professional and financial advice to their clients to buy and sell stocks and other financial products and services, and not just order takers.

With the stock market being dominated by computer trading and HFT, where such traders are relying on the speed and computation power of their computers to front run or scalping profits from the market, stock trading is no longer as it used to be when fundamentals and long term investments could make good profits in the long term. Stock trading is now primarily short term in nature when speed becomes the essence to make profits from the market. The human traders and speculators do not stand a chance to trade against super computers plugged into the Exchange. Some operators even moved their computers next door to the Exchange to gain the nano seconds advantage to execute a trade for sure profit.

Under such circumstances and a market that is determined by technologies, it is only wise for the Exchange to advise the remisiers to look at other avenues to earn a living, like selling other products, the latest being gold bullions. Chew Su Tat, Head of Sales and Clients at the SGX said, ‘If this (relying on calls from short term traders) is your sole business model, it’s not likely to be sustainable in the long term.’ He called on remisiers to rely more on internet trading to increase their client’s trading activities. How would this help the clients to profit from the market if the clients are also short term traders competing against the computers is another matter. Would sales technique, fundamental analysis and technical analysis help when the computers are still skimming the markets against all short term traders?

The daily value of trades done in the market has been declining and is averaging around $1b. The football season has taken its toll and the recent numbers have gone below $1b daily. Is there hope for a revival in the industry? The Exchange has released figures showing an increase in the number of remisiers in the industry despite many of the veterans having to call it a day when their monthly commissions are barely $1,000.

There are now 3,900 remisiers against 3000 in 2009. The number of CDP accounts has also gone up with 68,000 new accounts being added in the last 12 months. And the remisiers are getting more professional with the upgrading courses they have taken. Surely these must be positive signs for a recovery in the market and maybe a super bull run on the cards.

What is the reality? Would more remisiers coming into the industry mean more commissions earned by each remisier? Investment specialists, fundamental analysis, technical analysis, sales techniques, more CDP account opening, more financial products for sale, and whatever, are they going to improve trading activities and the income of the remisiers when computers tradings are still allowed to dominate and destroy the market speculators and genuine investors? Or is the message clear enough, changing name is not enough, changing trade or profession is the way to go for the remisiers?

How could a lucrative industry, with only basic stocks and shares and warrants, now no longer viable as an industry. How could the addition of so many complex and sophisticated financial products, instead of elevating the stock market into a booming industry, turning the stock market into a failed industry? What is going on?

Is there an elephant in the room? Where, where got? All is fine, trust me. Maybe all the remisiers will soon become millionaire remisiers like Peter Lim. Or is it million air remisiers? The wind down of the stock market as an industry is nearing its end and the clock will soon stop ticking. Would rebranding help to save the industry?

Time to prepare a place in the museum for another disappearing trade.

Kopi Level - Yellow