Aircraft carriers – The Art of War

Technology and fire power have simplified the Art of War to a game of arithmetic. The Americans have perfected this game for the last 60 plus years to rule the world by its sheer military might. It is a game of I can hit you and you can’t hit me. It is a game of I can drop 100 bombs or 1000 bombs on you and you can’t do anything about it.

The aircraft carriers, other than the nuclear arsenal that could blast this world into dust, are the core of the American war strategy. They are like floating death stars, mobile and can strike at the enemy in every corner of the earth. The only concern of the Americans is the sinking of an aircraft carrier. And to prevent this from happening, the aircraft carriers are protected by several layers of defence, in the air and under the sea and at sea level. The aircraft carriers will be a top priority target and must not be hit.

The aircraft carrier itself is an extremely expensive piece of technology and homes to thousands of soldiers and other war equipment. The supporting force and equipment to protect and defend the carrier are just as expensive, if not more. Acquiring an aircraft carrier is only the beginning of a huge acquisition of hardware and resources before it can go operation. The aircraft carrier is a very destructive and fearsome force. But it can be sunk and would be a priority target to be sunk. A simple example is the deployment of oil rigs in the South China Sea. The oil rigs are like the aircraft carriers, but unarmed, and have become easy targets of the Vietnamese. Hundreds of Vietnamese boats are attempting to ram and sink it. The Chinese responded by cordoning the rigs with hundreds of ships, probably submarines and aircraft to protect the rigs.

So far, there are no enemies of the Americans that are able to pose a threat to an aircraft carrier group. No one has the technology and capability to do so. And this gives the Americans the confidence and eagerness to wage wars, to threaten and attack any country that refuses to tow the line. But this is history. The Chinese purposefully develop anti aircraft carrier missiles, the DF21, to strike and sink aircraft carriers. With a range of more than 3000 nautical miles, it means that any aircraft carrier within that range from the Chinese coast could be sunk by these missiles, a more sophisticated and deadly drone. The DF21s are a cheap way to take on high value targets like aircraft carriers. Each missile would cost only a fraction of the aircraft carrier and China could send a couple of hundreds D21s in waves against a carrier. And it would be very cost effective.

The aircraft carriers to an enemy that is capable of taking it down at long range is just like sitting ducks in a pond. They would no longer be able to deploy their military might, to be able to hit the enemy but not being hit, when the enemy can now hit it first. The formidable floating death stars are floating death platforms and are very vulnerable to attacks. It is still a simple strategy in the Art of War, of I can hit you, you can’t hit me. Now the table is turned. The aircraft carriers cannot be within the range of the DF21s without risking everything on board. It is no longer the untouchable fortress, safe and secure, and extremely deadly.

Technology has caught up with the aircraft carriers. If Iran were to possess enough DF21s, would the Americans dare to move their aircraft carriers into the Indian Ocean or Gulf of Arabia? Would the Americans dare to contemplate sailing the 7th Fleet into the Straits of Taiwan as a show of force to intimidate China?

Anyone thinking of acquiring aircraft carriers must know that the intended enemy will acquire killer drones to sink the carriers. The Art of War is playable from both sides. No one side has the advantage of initiative and military superiority all the time. One can dream on striking the enemy first, preventive and preemptive surgical strikes, so can the enemy. One can keep spending money on more expensive weapons, so can the enemy. The ‘enemy’ will be strategising on every counter moves to defend itself and to strike at the weakest link or most valuable targets of the aggressor.

The enemies are not dead or dumb. What one can do, the enemy will be doing something else to counter every move made. You have aircraft carriers, the enemy will be ready to sink them. The American carrier groups were invincible but no more.

Kopi Level - Yellow

GST Vouchers – Real spending money or smoke screen?

A blogger by the nick of Meng wrote the above article posted in TRE. I quote his first two paragraphs,

‘Something I do not understand on GST Voucher payout to credit off the Utilities Account.
I have a family of 5 staying with me. Looking at the MOF Letter, every family member is given a $180 to offset their household utility bills. So a total of $900. However, I can only deduct $180 for my SP Services. So where did the balance $720 go? Lost into thin air?...’

Assuming that there are 1m households of 5 and each household receiving a total of $900 of GST Voucher for utility bills, technically the govt could declare that it pays out $900m in GST rebates to the people. If every household has the same 5 heads as mentioned by Meng and only one can claim $180, then the actual amount paid out and redeemed by the 1m households is $180m. There is a difference of $720m not claimable. If we have two million households, the amount would be $1.44b while the govt could claim giving away $1.8b.

How much does the Finance Ministry budgeted for and how much it claimed to have spent on the people? Or would it later make a revision to say only 20 per cent was spent?  If so, it would be proper procedure to refund the 80 per cent back to the MOF’s account. Unless of course the payout is actual and not $900m or $1.8b as projected, there is thus no need to account for the difference of $720m/$1.44b.

It is still a very good PR exercise for the govt to claim to have given back $900m/$1.44b to the people. And 4 out of 5 in such a household would have a brief moment of happiness, thinking that the govt is giving them $180 each, only to realise that it was all a mirage. The issue could be just PR, gives out $180m but on paper reflecting $900m. As a paper exercise, there is nothing to it, as no money is lost or not accounted for.

Kopi Level - Yellow

GIC investing in student dormitory

‘Singapore's GIC and Macquarie invest in Australian student dorm developer

Singapore sovereign wealth fund GIC and Australia's Macquarie Capital said Wednesday they have formed a joint venture that bought a majority stake in an Australian student accommodation group.’ AFP. This news was reported about a month ago.

GIC, our SWF, one of the biggest in the world, is investing money to build dormitories for students in Australia. I can’t remember whether it was GIC or Temasek that invested in the ill fated childcare that went bust and burnt a big hole in the fund’s pocket. Oops, apologies, just a tiny hole only, smaller than a kacang puteh.

There are some commonalities in the two investments. Both by Singapore’s world class SWF managed by the finest talents money can buy. Both involved education and students, only difference is one is bigger than the other. Let’s hope and pray that the commonality stops here.

One thing for sure, investing in the education of children is a noble thing to do. And the cost would not be as big as investing in world class banks. So it is a very safe investment and any losses would be kacang puteh at most.

This is prudence at the highest level, small risk investments. May I suggest investing in foodcourts, hawker centres and pasar malams, all national institutions, to the world market? These are low cost investments but with potentials to be Singapore’s Kmart or MacDonald and Kentucky Fried Chicken. Can tap on low cost engineering from India and low cost labour too to make these investments even more competitive.

They said branding makes a world of difference. Brand these products with the names of GIC or Temasek would definitely raise eyebrows and make them great household names.

Oh, talking about dormitory and labour, how about investing in dormitories for our 2 million foreign worker and talent population? There is a critical mass to make the venture worthwhile and also help to solve our social problem of not providing quality living environment for these people that came to help turn Singapore into a world class city.

F35 fleet grounded

A fire on the engine of a F35 has led to the complete grounding of all F35s in service. The US Defence Department has announced that a complete inspection of all the engines will be conducted, and for safety reasons, they will not let the F35s off the ground until they know what is the cause of the problem. A decision to put all 97 aircraft on hold must mean something serious is going on.

The F35 is by far the most expensive multi role fighter aircraft ever produced and will cost about $200m a piece. Singapore was reported to have committed to buy the F35s but the decision has been kept under wrapped given the series of problems facing the aircraft and the many concerns expressed over its ability to perform to specifications. The cost is also a very prohibitive factor and only countries that are very rich and have a lot of money to throw would be able to afford it. Singapore is the only exception as it would be small change to our big coffer.

An American general has publicity announced that Singapore has already made the buy decision. Would this be true and Singapore be acquiring this untested aircraft that is extremely costly and plagued with a host of problems? Under the old thinking, especially the leadership of Goh Keng Swee, Singapore will not touch any aircraft with a 10 foot pole unless the aircraft has been operational and proven in service. Has there been a new thinking, a new adventurism to plough billions of dollars on such an expensive piece of untested equipment that is infamous for all kinds of problems and have not been ruled fit and operational, let alone seen service in the battle field? It is like buying a dinosaur egg with a lot of promises and surprises that we would definitely get the dinosaur we paid for.

Maybe a decision has already been made and all the reservations are of no use. Just name the price and we will pay for it as long as it looks good on paper and the marketing brochures. This will be another great new toy to boot should it ever land on our shore. And with the price tag, it must be really good. It must be value for money. Good stuff doesn’t come cheap except when it is a con job like the few banks that we bought and nearly lost our pants.

Kopi Level - Green

Another protest at Hong Lim tomorrow

We would like to inform that we will be having an event on Saturday, 5th July at Hong Lim Park from 4 to 7pm. Subject of the event is titled – “Is our Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong the right person to lead Singapore?”
 
For this event, we have invited 10 speakers from all walks of life to talk about the subject matter. As we know, the prime minister has recently launch a defamation suit against its own citizen, Mr Roy Ngerng. There are legitimate calls from certain sections of the community for our Prime Minister to step down from office.
Most of the speakers on that day will be ordinary Singaporeans who are either frustrated with the policies in place or are personally affected by it. Hence, the event will showcase arguments on whether the prime minister is the right person to lead the nation.
 
Link to the event page can be found in FB – https://www.facebook.com/events/657651847623510/?ref_dashboard_filter=upcoming&source=1....
 
We cannot allow a leader who has no competency and heart to lead the country. We cannot allow a leader who is devoid of compassion to continue and pile on miseries towards citizens any longer.
It’s time for him to step down from office and allow a true leader with the appropriate skills, knowledge, competency and foresight to take over and lead Singapore to the next era….
Hosted by William Lim and Osman Sulaiman.
 
The above is posted in TRE. I am not sure who is the organizer of this event. This is the first time that a protest is directed at a person, in this case the PM, Hsien Loong. The earlier protests were about issues and policies. Just wonder what kind of crowd it will draw.

Kopi Level - Green