Sin City has peaked

Sin City has reached new heights in many things and it is looking like hitting its peak. Many things just cannot go up anymore or at its last leg, another last hike and that is about all.

Top on the list is income of political leaders. Raising this will bring about grave consequences or angry disapproval for sure. Housing prices are still going up, but for how long, when the income level is not going up except for those living in the stratosphere? COE and car prices are peaking at the same time.

Population, there are two major school of thoughts. The super talented will tell you that 20m is ‘sup sup suey’. The lay people will not want any of it and rather stay at this level. Unbelieveable that birth rate is at a record low of 1.2 percent and population is growing exponentially. I personally think that the capacity to support people in this piece of rock is reaching its peak and optimum level. Anything more is madness. How many of the unthinking would go along with this madness is frightening.

The talent pool for political office is drying up or peaking as well. Every batch the quality is not getting betterer than the previous batch. And many bright young professionals are not coming home and the talent pool for political office will now have to come from the newly minted citizens whose credentials are suspect, whose certificates and qualifications need to be scan under a microscope.

The land for use is also peaking and the only way out is to demolish and rebuild higher and higher. Roads and rails capacity are also peaking as well. Is there really any more room for growth at the rate the land is being used up?

Even the number of straight A students for PSLE, A and O level are peaking and if not stop, every student will be getting straight As.

Rentals, medical fees, cost of living are also peaking and the strain on the people is showing. Hospital and medical services are at a peak that no one even realized. Someone with a toothache will be given an appointment 6 mths down the road. His immediate pain is hopefully taken care off some time down the road, like Natcon.

MRT capacity is definitely at its peak level. The next challenge is to be as world class as Tokyo in terms of passenger per train car.

The only thing that is not peaking is probably the number of millionaires. There are 800,000 HDB flat dwellers waiting to become millionaires. This would be the last peak I think. Oh, I miss out another major peak, with a lot of room to grow. Don’t forget the minimum sums in the CPF savings. These still got a long way to peak. Did anyone whisper ERPs and GST?

Govt giving HDB dwellers $40 for Xmas

The Govt is so considerate. It is giving 94% of flat dwellers $40 to pay for the increase in property tax. I am so happy, at least for this year. Next yearand many more years will have to pay for the full increase.

I think I am also among the majority who are unhappy with this increase in property tax. The increase is due to the higher rental values HDB flats can fetch. Shit, how many HDB flat dwellers are renting out their flats to be deserving of paying for the higher tax? If I am not mistaken, the bulk of HDB dwellers do not rent out their flats. Why are they paying for some imaginery paper gain that they did not benefit and ended up paying for it?

Should the tax be tweaked to tax on those renting out their flats? Funny leh, why the majority always kenna hit for nothing and expected to be happy because the value of their flats goes up and the rental value also goes up.

Some are now even questioning that as a leasehold properties, with so many restrictions imposed by the real owner of the flats, shouldn’t the HDB be paying the property tax as the ultimate owner? Of course this kind of reasoning is bad as the next level of ultimate owner is the govt and why should the govt pay tax to itself. And the ultimate ultimate owner of the flats is God himself as God owns everything.

What is material is that the benefits of higher rental value is fictitious to many owner occupied HDB flats and is it unfair to make them pay for this paper value. The retirees will be worst hit. The Govt should use the higher rental value to tax on those that are renting out their flats and not those that did not make a cent of out it. Tiok boh? Fair or not? I like to think simple.

The Cantonese have a phrase, 'Bo tin tin fat tat'. In this case is 'Bo tin tin kenna screwed'. While people are happily renting out their flats to make money, the majority of the Sinkies can only put on a silly smile and pay for nothing.

A coalition of forces or an independent attack

When Nick Leeson tried to corner the Nikkei with the war chest of his bank, he believed that his bank was big enough to bank roll him against the small investors. He was successful initially as the rest of the investors were acting alone and lack the fire power to contest him. But when the stakes got too high, the Japanese investors got worried of his position. A crash of Nikkei could bring about a series of events that were difficult to control. The zaibatsu and the big guys gathered together to deal a deadly blow to this young turk acting alone. In unison, they took position against Leeson and the rest is history.

An almost similar picture happened during the Asian financial crisis when the big funds from the west formed an informal coalition to sell down the Hongkong market. HK stock exchange and its financial sector could be ruined if not stopped. The taipans, the HK Govt and the Chinese Govt got together with a bigger war chest to defend the onslaught and the victors were obvious. The western big funds took a rubbing and went back to lick their wounds.

In the local market we are seeing a smaller scale onslaught of a single stock, Olam International. The modus operandi is different. There is a report on the accounting and business practices of Olam put up by Muddy Waters to justify the sell down. The shorting of the stock has been going on for weeks. Olam is resisting and defending its management and business decisions. These have become side issues. The main thrust is the shorting of the stock in the market. At this point in time Olam appears to be losing ground as there is no let up in the selling.

It was reported that 12% of Olam scripts were on loan, probably to parties that were shorting the stocks. Who is going to win this battle of wits or is it a matter of war chest? Muddy Waters on its own could do just so much damage. Could it still be shorting and keep exposing itself to bigger position, alone? Or is it working in coalition with other parties to short down the stock?

At the other side, is Olam buying and supporting its stock value? If Olam is defending its position just by clarifying its management decisions and not buying back its stocks, it is going to be a losing proposition. And working alone to defend a stock without knowing how many parties are in cahoot with Muddy Waters to press down the value of Olam is not going to work.

What are the big funds here doing? Are they shorting the stocks as well or just standing on the sideline waiting to see what happens? How would the crash of Olam, if the shorting continues, affect the general well being of the stock market and the financial system?

The other issues to note, is Olam deserving to be sold down? If there are fraudulent practices, the fate of Olam is as good as sealed. If it is just a management decision, a fair practice, would any party think it is good to prevent a viable company from being destroyed by short sellers?

No one in the market is any wiser except the insiders. Are the local funds and big wigs willing to join force to defend Olam, if they could think of a reason? Or would the big shareholders of Olam get together to defend their investment? Or would they join force with the short sellers and sell down the stock in the quiet hoping to buy back with big profits at lower prices?

Who are the players, the short sellers in this game? In any situation of such a nature, the wolf pack or hyenas would often strike in unison, as a coalition, and the victim would be defenceless on its own. This is the precarious nature of the stock market when funds can move quickly, in tandem to cause destruction of stocks, stock markets or the financial system of a country, particularly the small ones. It is rare to have a repeat of the defence against Nick Leeson or the onslaught of the HKSE by the taipans and the Chinese Govt. Is it fair game, market forces?

Najib kenna stabbed in the back

Must give it to Najib for trying so hard to woo the non Malay voters for the coming GE. He has done many things that were tabooed before, offering concessions to other ethnic interests. I must say that some of the fence sitters were wavering and could be thinking of returning to the BN banner. And even Mahathir said the moment is ripe for a GE. But he qualified that with time down the road, things could change and will change if the election is not called soon.

Unfortunately he has spoken too early. There was a news yesterday that a Chinese hair dressing shop was issued a summon for cutting the hair of a male Chinese by a female Chinese hair dresser. This is the new ‘law’ that the govt is pulling out to impose its value and lifestyle on other ethnic groups. When they don’t do it or cannot do it, other ethnic groups would not be allowed to do so. There is a new ‘law’ that Muslim female hair dressers can only cut the hair of female Muslim customers and male to cut the hair of male customers. Now this is being imposed on the non Muslims.

This hidden and deep seated obsession to impose its religious ethos, values and life prohibitions is going to remind the other ethnic groups of more to come. Would it be extended to no pork, no alcohol, no movies and no whatsoever, no lion dance, no religious parades etc etc?

Did Najib know that this is being done and is undermining his friendly gestures and olive branch to the other ethnic groups? It is interesting to know how the other ethnic groups are thinking now. UMNO will never know the truth, and neither will Najib know the truth until the next GE result is announced.

PS: Just read the paper, Correction, the hair cut summon was issued by PAS in Kelantan and MCA is taking issue with. Still this is something the non Malay parties are very high about. They just did not know when and who is going to up the challenge to see who is more ultra.

11 year old selling CD to pay for eye surgery

I was won over by the bubbly nature of this precocious little girl when she performed at the President’s Charity Show. She was confident, intelligent and very mature for her age. It was so painful to see her living life without sight. She was born with opaque cornea and unable to see.

Yerterday TRE carried an article of adelyn Koh composing songs and selling her CDs to raise fund for her eye operation. It is going to cost her $40k per eye and a total of $80k for both eyes. I wish the hospital could have done it for her for $8. It would be so nice and I will willingly pay for it.

The richest country in the world with the most millionaires per capita, and there is this little girl being left to fend for herself, to raise money on her own, for the badly needed surgery. She had done 4 operations without success. It was reported that she has just operated on one eye and still trying to raise the balance to pay for the next eye.

Wonder how much we paid for the conjoint twins for the operation held here several years back. Is there an eye surgeon willing to do a little charity to charge her less, to give her sight, to live like a normal child? Would the govt….never mind.