How to grow our reserves?

It is a state secret how much of our reserves are CPF money, or the people’s money. Anyone has the figure? I think the CPF component is not small and could be a very substantial portion of our national reserves. And I find this very funny, and very painful. Why is it that the people’s money, your money, my money becomes the country’s reserve? Never mind, it is part of the economist’s formula, to include the people’s money as the country’s money for the govt to crow about while the real owners of the money can only cry about it.

With this in mind, the easiest way to grow the reserves is to make sure that there is more money in the CPF. How to do that? I think we all know the answers. I can make our reserves even bigger and tell you that it is safe, without telling you how much is there as long as the CPF account holders are happy with the monthly statements.

So, how rich are you? Or how rich is the country’s reserves? Your money or someone else money?

I am very frighten of people who claims to be able to grow the reserves.

The President, gambler and fund manager

The campaign for the next Elected President has commenced and what came to my mind is the relationship between the president, the gambler and the fund manager. They all have one similar interest, money. Money is a big issue not just about how much should the president be paid given the surprising revelation of his job by the Law Minister. The only part that justifies some big money is the president’s role as a custodian to the country’s reserves.

The rest of the functions of the president are more ceremonial and quite exciting, like in the company of heads of states, the kings and queens and dining with celebrities. I think many rich and successful people are dying to be in such a position and would even pay for it. As for the money part, what does the president do and how much is he deserving is now questionable.

Let me start with the gambler. Simply put, the gambler takes chances by placing his bets. When he loses, he blames it on bad luck. When he wins, he can brag about his gambling skills. In a way the fund managers also places his bets which he calls its investing. And he employs very talented and highly qualified people to justify what he is doing. All done carefully, objectively, with charts and figures. No guess work. When he makes money, he too will brag about how clever and talented he is. When he loses, there are always the forces beyond his control or he is investing in the long term. He will have the long term to cover his bad bets.

There are some startling differences between a gambler and a fund manager. The gambler’s cost is only himself. And he gambles with his own money. The fund manager pays all the top talents a fortune to place his bets. And when he loses, even in hundreds of billions, it is always other people’s money, not his money. He always wins with his huge pay packet and huge cuts in winnings. He is much better than the gambler in many ways.

And when a fund manager loses big, he can go to the president for more money. Here is the relationship. The Elected President is there to say yes or no to the fund manager gambling with the country’s reserves. But how can the EP say no when the fund manager says he is investing in the long term and will win back all his money in a matter of time? His short term loss is due to circumstances beyond his control.

What if the Elected President says no? He can be removed as the fund manager can claim that he is opposing his instruction. According to the Law Minister, an Elected President that challenges the govt can be removed. So how? Does the Elected President have any machinery or forces behind him to take on the govt? The govt is in control of everything, the media, the uniformed services, the civil services, the Unions, the clans and all govt related agencies and institutions. How could an Elected President say no to a ruling govt when he can be simply removed?

Here comes the question of his $10m pay. Should the president be paid $4m -$10m to say no when he can’t really say no? And this is the reality if one listens to the campaign speeches of the presidential hopefuls. They want to do all kinds of things that are nice to have but really quite irrelevant, and do not justify the money or the position. Who cares what they want to do? What is important is his ability to make sure that the reserves is not squander away. But can the EP do it?

An embarrassing moment repeating?

The likeable George Yeo could not imagine that he could be bundled out of a general election. Frankly, I too was surprised by his defeat and the losing of 5 super talents in one go. On reflection, none of them should take it personally as the defeat was not their fault. There was a change of wind. The defeat was a defeat of the PAP. Too much, too long, the PAP has overstayed its welcome and the people were looking for a change.

There was resentment too. The policies of the past decade have alienated the people to a point that the anger must be released. And George Yeo and his team were the unfortunate scapegoat. Nothing personal.

The present election for the EP could see another embarrassing moment being repeated. The possibilility of Tony Tan losing the election is very high despite all the endorsements from all corners appearing in the media. Endorsements by office bearers and committees are different from the feelings of the rank and file. The elite will think differently and may want to sit in the same table and sing the same song. The masses, the ordinary people, may have a mind of their own and want to do their own thing.

Don’t be surprised if Tony Tan did not make it to the Istana. What if he loses his deposit? That will be terribly embarrassing. But again, it has nothing to do with him. The vote against him is likely to be a vote against the ruling party. For the moment Tony is the front runner with endorsements from every where. He is having a good start.

Strange for me to look at the Presidential Election in this manner as it is not meant to be partisan or political while my whole reasoning is about politics, nothing but politics.

Would we see the knuckle duster again?

My article on Lee Hsien Loong’s National Day concessions is pretty generous and I thought for a start it is quite promising. There are other perspectives that are calling for more changes while some are asking for compensation for the wrongs and damages done by past policies. These are very serious in monetary terms for those badly hurt by the education policies and housing fiasco that were trumpeted as great jobs done. They were nearly awarded the public stars. We know that they are now history, good riddance.

Hsien Loong has taken a more conciliatory approach to deal with the problems, used to be called achievements, created by policies of the past few years. Trying to accept them and see them as problems and looking for solutions to them must be quite pressurizing. It could be different, a triumphant glory, if they were painted as great policies and nothing needs to be done. As things are, there is an admission that not all are right or good stuff. Some were blatantly disgusting.

What if Hsien Loong took the kpkbs negatively, or someone suggested to him that he needs to be tough, never retreat under pressure, never allowed the people to make demands on him, and offers him the knuckle duster? If that happens, I can easily foresee the following developments.

There will be a clamp down on new media. There will be people being sued. There could be midnight callers. And Hsien Loong could appear on national TV to speak to the people in a different tone. He may even shed some tears for the tough measures that he had to take against the detractors, all for the good of the country. The country will be pitched to be in a state of crisis, and tension would spread across the island. Some may end up as bankrupts, some may escape from paradise.

And all the ministers who were stripped from their posts will be resurrected and elevated to high pedestals, as heroes who made tough decisions. Only strong and good leaders are capable of making tough decisions even when the policies hurt the people badly. But there is always the long term good to preach. In the long run, like from a distance, the earth looks so beautiful, and everything will turn out well.

And everything goes on as usual, with all the past policies in force. Property owners will be smiling when property prices shoot to the sky. CPF holders will be smiling when they read their monthly statements. Foreign talents will be smiling everywhere and telling their country men that Singapore is a paradise. And more foreigners will be queuing up to come to paradise. Some will be pointing to the jams everywhere as signs of progress and vibrancy.

There will be high economic growth and prosperity, at all cost. And everything else is just an aspiration, except money in the pocket.

Telling the President hopeful's fortune

My bookie came to see me for guidance on the Presidential Race. He has faith in my clairvoyance ability and also my skills in fixing numbers. Of course I obliged when there is a big angpow waiting for me.

So I took out a wash basin, filled it with holy water, threw in a few twigs of pomegranate leaves. Then I lighted three joss sticks and got into a prayer for my spiritual guide.

The result of my spiritual trip was most enlightening. 50:50, a touch and go Presidential Race. How does this works out? In the last GE, PAP garnered 60% of popular votes. This time around, they are likely to get only 50% for the following reasons. It is not about electing a govt. That has been confirmed and no risk in electing whoever as the President. It would still be a political contest between the PAP and the non PAPs.

The second point is the lost of faith in the govt and its policies. People are getting very cynical and are questioning how these policies are benefiting them. Many have great doubts. Many too have great doubts in the abilities of the super talents giving the fiascos in the surge in population, high property prices and the lapses/bad policies to build more flats, to provide the infrastructure for the big influx of foreigners. And there are the big losses in our sovereign funds, the failure in our education system to produce top talents leading to such a pathetic state that Singaporeans have to depend on foreigners to come here to help them. Not enough hospitals or not enough lower class wards. There are many more things that have inundated the Singaporean minds.

The third point is the need for a strong President to check on a rogue govt led by a rogue PM. Singaporeans may be daft, or some people may think so. But no Singaporean is going to believe that an independent director handpicked and paid by the management can be an effective watchdog to monitor the wrong doings of the management. This principle is applicable to the Elected Presidency. But some daft Singaporeans will not think, and will still be deceived. Serious and rational thinking Singaporeans, and there are many out there, will want to vote for a truly independent individual that can check on the govt.

The votes will be split evenly for various reasons, between the two pairs of candidates, Tony Tan and Tan Cheng Bock versus Tan Jee Say and Tan Kin Lian. The former have strong links with the govt and the latter are seen as more independent or not related. Now let’s look at the numbers. With 50% each, Tony and Cheng Bock are likely to split their votes between 20:30 and 24:26, likely in favour of the former. In the Jee Say/Kin Lian camp, it could be the same split and would make the contest that more interesting.

What other factors could be thrown into the computation to make the difference? The controversy over Patrick Tan is still hanging over Tony’s head and if there is a whistle blower, this could completely demolish his chances, and the biggest beneficiary will be Cheng Bock. In the case of the rest, anything can happen. Who knows when a monkey will escape from the zoo to accuse one of them of stealing his peanuts? Or some jokers may stand out to complain of losing paper clips.

For the moment it is 50:50 and depending on the combination, both sides will have a candidate that may tip the scale. Will the people vote for a pro PAP President or an independent President? Sorry, wrong choice of words. All the candidates are independent of political parties and are standing on their own. They have no links with any political parties. This is a completely non political election, get it?

The people are quite lucky to have four highly qualified and respectable men, with good reputation and integrity, to choose from. Now who is going to win? Let me toss my dice….