How real are polls and reports?

Singapore is the most desired country for migration and its population could go up by 200% if those who wanted to come are allowed to come. But the US is still the most preferred country to migrate to. Wow, we are number one again. If one ask anyone from a third world poor country if they want to migrate to a first world country, would they say no? If the survey were to be conducted in India or China, at least 1% would say they want to come to Singapore and we would have 20 million instant citizens. If the survey were to ask the respondents about Australia and that there is no racist policy to keep them out, at least 50 million each from India and China would be there in no time. So how much good can we attach to a survey like this? And of course as been pointed out, if 10 million want to come here, our population will be inflated by 200%. If 30 million want to go to the US, its population will only go up by 10%. In percentage term the US is less favoured than us. It is like surveying 5 people and claim that 100% of the respondent say yes.

So, littering by fliers is ok?

If the ST is the official mouthpiece of the govt, then littering by fliers is ok. I say if. Of course ST is not the mouthpiece of the govt and its position is not necessarily the position of the govt. It just exercises its right to express its view and position on any issue it wants. This morning's editorial on littering by housing agent is blaming the Singaporeans for being too well taken cared of, a spoilt lot. It asked, why can't the heartlanders just pick up the fliers and put them into the dustbins? Let's see, 3 or 4 fliers daily, at different times, will mean that the heartlanders will have to perform this cleansing daily a few times if they did not want the flier/litter to adorn their entrance. Why should heartlanders be responsible for clearing the fliers left by someone else? They are not simply nuisance as I have said. What if all the spoilt heartlanders just let the fliers accumulate in the corridors? It is not a matter of just the cleaners to come cleaning. It is a slum in the making. The heartland will become another third world slum, with litters everywhere. Is this the standard that we want, permitting litters to be strewn everywhere? Heh heh, I love the idea.

Why need foreign talent in finance?

Look at the three local banks that we have, big strong and financially sound. These banks were built, brick by brick, under conservative and traditional principles and practices of banking. They grow in a slow pace, under strict regulations and scrutiny. Their conservative and traditional practices have lagged them behind the multinational American and European banks, the Citis, Goldmans, the Morgans, the Lloyds, Barclays and the UBS. These American and European banks grew rapidly during the period of liberalisation and deregulations. But then many grew big fast and quick and went pop fast and quick as well. In banking and finance, the hare and tortoise race is still applicable in many ways. With the benefits of hindsight, the Americans and Europeans are trying to rein in the free wheeling days when high finance is nothing more than a casino and selling snake oils. Liberalisation and deregulation were what they demanded and what they got, and the whole system nearly collapsed with trillions lost across the world. The situation is best summed up by an article in the ST by Howard Davis, former Chairman of Britain’s Financial Services Authority and now director of the London School of Economics. He quoted Andy Haldane from the Bank of England, …‘Only when markets were deregulated and liberalised from the early 1970s onwards did finance once again leap ahead…. He argues that much of the apparent growth in value added has in fact been illusory, based on increased leverage, excess trading and banks writing deep out of the money options, for example, credit default swaps, a US$60 trillion (S$80 trillion) market in 2007....What all these strategies had in common…was that they involved banks assuming risk in the hunt for yield – risk that was often disguised because it was parked in the tail of the return distribution.’ The era of fool’s gold may be over and America and Europe may not see its heyday sooner. But fear not, for if America and Europe ‘over constrain the finacial sector, risk may migrate outside the regulatory frontier, where it will be harder to measure and monitor.’ And this is where Singapore can step in. The rejects from the American and European financial industry are welcomed here to do their damages. Our local banks is in need of these foreign talents to spurt growth, to grow as big as Citibank, Lehmans, Goldmans, Morgans, the Bears and Stearns and the likes. Shall we or shall we not welcome these foreign talents into our financial industry? They will bring growth and innovation and boost our productivity and bottom line practically overnight. We don’t have to wait a millenium to grow our local banks to super banks. They can be super banks with the foreign expertise and their innovative banking practices and writing off debts. Banks need to take risk, high risk, and operate like casinos if they want rapid growth and high yield. With our greed for instant growth, like our infamous instant tree formula, we have no choice but to embrace these foreign talents with open arms. PS. Below are the causes of the financial crisis listed in Wikipedia. You can actually tick those that are applicable and happening here to see the risk that we are exposed. 1 Background and causes(2007/8 financial crisis) * 1.1 Growth of the housing bubble * 1.2 Easy credit conditions * 1.3 Sub-prime lending * 1.4 Predatory lending * 1.5 Deregulation * 1.6 Increased debt burden or over-leveraging * 1.7 Financial innovation and complexity * 1.8 Incorrect pricing of risk * 1.9 Boom and collapse of the shadow banking system * 1.10 Commodities boom * 1.11 Systemic crisis * 1.12 Role of economic forecasting

US carriers the perfect targets

'Setting the stage for a possible conflict, Beijing has grown increasingly vocal in its demands for the U.S. to stay away from the wide swaths of ocean — covering much of the Yellow, East and South China seas — where it claims exclusivity. It strongly opposed plans to hold U.S.-South Korean war games in the Yellow Sea off the northeastern Chinese coast, saying the participation of the USS George Washington supercarrier, with its 1,092-foot (333-meter) flight deck and 6,250 personnel, would be a provocation because it put Beijing within striking range of U.S. F-18 warplanes. The carrier instead took part in maneuvers held farther away in the Sea of Japan. U.S. officials deny Chinese pressure kept it away, and say they will not be told by Beijing where they can operate. "We reserve the right to exercise in international waters anywhere in the world," Rear Adm. Daniel Cloyd, who headed the U.S. side of the exercises, said aboard the carrier during the maneuvers, which ended last week. But the new missile could undermine that policy.' The above is extracted from an article by ERIC TALMADGE, Associated Press. The article is about China's new missile technology that is specifically developed to take on the American aircraft carrier group that is proving to be a menace in the East China Seas. The Americans have enjoyed naval and air superiority over all nations for a long time. This superiority is now being negated by the Chinese missiles that have the precision to knock out an aircraft carrier. It would be a cheap missile against a big, high value and worthy targets in terms of lives and machinery. Going down with an aircraft carrier will be several thousand crews and several hundreds of aircraft. A good bargain definitely. The Americans will now have to be very careful pushing their sitting ducks in the waters around China. They will come within the range of these high precision missiles designed specially to take them out of the equation. It is no more an invincible task force. It is a lame duck! The arrogance of American raw power has met its nemesis.

Pavlov’s Law in action

Pavlov is famous for his experiment in substituting a stimulus to elicit a desired response. Animals can respond for instance to a bell or a light and salivate as if it is responding to a food stimulus. After reading the papers these few days, I can relate to how we train our young to respond to money as a stimulus. Little school children were given tickets to watch YOG programmes but have to sign an undertaking to forfeit a $5 deposit if they did not turn up. If we keep training our children to respond to this money stimulus, soon their minds will respond to it in a predictable manner. It will be very effective when they become adults. Do not litter or you will be fined. Our streets will be cleaner. We can save a lot of time and trouble teaching children to behave responsibly as a rightful thing, as an ethical thing, as a good thing. Just use the money stimulus will do. Efficient and effective! No need to explain and explain on the whys. Pavlov called this kind of reaction as conditioning. The circus, the zoos and bird parks around the world also use this method very effectively to train animals to behave in the way they want them to.

We have overcome

Asia Insurance Building was the tallest building. Bukit Timah Road was the longest Road. Two battalions armed with 303 rifles and a few guns, we used them for ceremonial salutes today, were all we had. We had 3 tiny reservoirs and had to depend on Johore for our water supply. Each family had 8 to 10 children, mostly uneducated, under employed, and crammed into attap huts or Chinatown cubicles. There were unemployment and shortage of housing. Small businesses had to pay protection money to secret societies to remain in business. We had several small family banks run by self taught businessmen. We overcame the odds. Asia Building is now dwarfed by HDB flats. Longest road is either AYE or PIE. We have an armed force equal or better than anyone in the region. We are self sufficient in our water needs. We have full employment, solved our housing problems, educate our people to the highest level possible. Now what? We have housing problems all over again. We have unemployment among our own people in spite of full employment. We cannot solve a little flooding problem. We do not know what to do with littering by flyers. We built 3 large local banks that operate in the international market, all by our local talents. Now we are sneering at our local talents that they were not good enough to run these banks, and we need to employ foreign talents to run them. And very likely none of these foreign talents even know how to start a banking business. We have one of the world’s highest saving rate only to find out that many will not have enough money for retirement. A visit to the dental clinic or hospital is like offering oneself to be robbed. Maybe it is true that our local talents are hopeless, despite paying them top dollars. That is why we are struggling with little petty problems and got caught off guard now and then. Those days when we could overcome all odds and surmount all problems, no matter how big are over. We can’t even come out with a simple fare structure for public transport and the oldies/students have to subsidise the able, and no one can do anything about it. They just put up a show of protest and live with it, as what had happened to all the unpopular policies. What is happening?

YOG and empty stadium

Why students not attending YOG events despite being given free tickets? Why, maybe transport fare is too expensive. You think travelling around is free and the students got so much money to spare?

War crimes in Sri Lanka and Myanmar

America is behind the war crime investigations in Sri Lankan and Myanmar under the UN umbrella. How come there is no war crime investigation against America in Vietnam, in Iraq, Afghanistan, Pakistan and Guantanamo? Why were there no war crime tribunal against the indiscreet killing of civilians in Nagasaki and Hiroshima by the Americans. And pushing it a little back, why no crimes against humanity against the Americans for slavery of Africans and genocide against the Red Indians? When will the UN grow some balls to initiate war crimes or crimes against humanity against the Americans?

How much are the fare increases?

We know that the fares were raised. We know that it was meant to be a fairer system. We know that 3 out of 4 commuters would benefit from the fare hike and 1 out of 4 would have to pay more. How much more and how much less? We also know that the transport companies would lose $88m in revenue. Really? Let’s look at some numbers. I am using what I know to extrapolate the impact on all the commuters. A senior citizen will save 15c if he travels a short distance of 4/5 stations, (68-53). If he travels longer distance, he would have to pay 18c more(86-68). Before the changes, a senior citizen pays 68c for maybe 24 stations. With the new changes, the transport company would even out the reduction in the first 4/5 stations from commuters who travel the next 4/5 stations. Subsequently the rest of the journey or more than 10 stations will be pure additional profits. Give away 15c for 4/5 stations and collect 18c from the next 4/5 stations is already a profit. The rest of the journey collects 18c. Not bad a formula. How could they lose $88m? And the same principle is applicable to students and normal fare commuters. The percentage increases could be much more in the normal fare category. When you collect more and give out less, I think the profit is enormous rather than losing $88m. I stand to be corrected on the exact numbers as I am just extrapolating from the fares of senior citizens. SMRT are cordially invited to provide the exact numbers here.

The financial industry getting darker

With more big players coming here to operate dark pool electronic trading, the activities in the finance industry will surely get darker. Dark pool operations are against the merits of transparency. Ronald Arculli, chairman of Hong Kong Exchange said that ‘dark pools pose a “systemic risk” to financial markets because of their lack of transparency.’ However, when the industry practice is less then virtuous, playing in the dark side seems to be easier to accept. Many experts in US and Europe have cried out loud against this practice and have told of the dangers it presented. It is also unfair to the rest of the investors for not having such information and trading in the dark. It is no longer a level playing field when information is withheld by some parties. Stock exchanges that see it their responsibility to provide and level playing field and transparency need to re examine themselves and ask if they are violating the very principles and regulations that are supposed to uphold. Will dark pools turn out to be as toxic as toxic notes and mini bonds one day? Welcome to the dark side.

Why are the oldies complaining about fare hike?

The recent fare hike, or to put it better, fare adjustment, was not meant to be a fare hike. Whether commuters, especially the senior citizens, travel longer or shorter distance, need to make a transfer or not, there will be a saving. I am a senior citizen and I am speaking on my first hand experience. I am benefitting by adjusting my pattern of travelling. Before the fare hike, if I travel 1 station or 2 stations, I would have to pay 68c. If I travel 5 stations or 11stations, I would still pay 68c. With the new changes, if I travel 1 station or 2 stations, I will have to pay 53c. If I travel 5 or 11 stations, I will have to pay 86c. My normal route will mean that I will have to pay 18c more one way or 36c more daily. This is a 26% hike every day! Now, how can I benefit from the changes? I figure out that if I get in at station 1 and out at station 2, I will save 15c (68-53). So if I break up my journey into ten trips, in and out of every one station, I could save $1.50 per trip or $3 daily. Wow, I am saving more than the 36c hike daily by changing my travelling pattern! Can make money some more. I am an oldie and my mental faculty may be a little faulty. Please don’t take advantage of oldies. And thank you for helping me to save $3 daily.

The virtuous deaf frogs

The fare hike was meant to benefit the commuters. But it is ok that 1 out of 4 got to pay more. Lily Neo was furious and asked, 'Is the minister aware of the frustration and anger of many...on the ground? Raymond Lim 'acknowledged that some seniors face "significant fare increases". And it was an agonising decision that the Public Transport Council had to make. Then what? Stop whining and move on? Hey, the little money that the seniors have is crucial to their daily lives. Every cent counts. It is not a matter of whether they can take bus, mrt or taxis, it can mean going with one meal less or trying to make ends meet. Many of these seniors did not earn $2m or $3m a year. The few cents may be nonsense and meaningless to people earning millions, but please don't brush it off as just too bad. Do something and not let the poor seniors being robbed of their cup of kopi O.

Vandalism or littering allowed?

Inserting flyers into people’s doors and gates is not vandalism and not littering. Ok, I accept that. Is it trespassing when they are not wanted? It is public nuisance when the owners would have to make the effort to throw them away? Is it a fire hazard when too many are left around and a lighted cigarette could set them ablaze? Is it a security risk to the owners when the flyers are a tell tale sign that the owners are not in for a long duration? Who should be responsible if someone slips on the fliers and get hurt? But it is so complicated and confusing an issue that our top talents in Parliament could not come out with a clear position. The fliers’ owners claimed that they have to do it to generate business. And some jokers even agree to it, saying that they cannot prevent people from doing business. What kind of bullshit is that? Why are the nasi lemak and kalipok boys and girls and small time hawkers not allowed to peddle their wares? Oh they got no licence, never pay protection money is it? Why should flat owners be troubled by the fliers and have to clear them away? What if the owners opened their doors and the fliers drop onto the floor, and left there? Is it littering on the part of the owners? The fliers are litters and will litter the whole corridor. When have littering been allowed? What happen to the $500 fine for littering? This looks like another serious and complex problem, like loan sharks and motor insurance scam, no one is able to solve. It’s not elementary, Watson. So the people should continue to be harassed and bombarded by fliers and they can do nothing about it. And Parliament too cannot do anything about it. It is just doing business. Did I see a big bull somewhere? Shall someone engage a prominent lawyer to clarify the legal position on this? There must be a position, black or white. Of shall it stay grey forever, impossible to solve?

I am back!

Practically every week there will be news on LKY making some calls on national affairs. After his revolutionary statement that there shall be no retirement age, the reports are the surest sign that he will be standing in the next GE. I believe he was the man who advised Deng Xiaoping to replace the old Chinese leadership with younger men and women in charge. China has done so and their leaders are mostly younger than ours now. We still have LKY, Jayakumar and Chok Tong in an age group that makes the Chinese leaders look boyish. So, why the dramatic change to keep the oldies going for as long as they are still kicking? Is it dearth of leadership, dearth of good political leaders? China is a big country with depth in talents. We don’t have the luxury. Look at the banks and you will understand why. The locals are just inept, not good enough, and you just cannot risk the banks with them. So there is a need to keep looking for foreign talents when the locals are just not good enough. For political leadership, things are a bit trickier. PRs cannot be political leaders for one. They need to change their ICs to pink. Only pink can do. For any newly minted citizens, preferably they should be pinkies for a few years to lend some credibility to be our political leaders. There is thus an urgent task to find and attract more foreign talents to boost up the quality of our political talent. In the meantime, the oldie trinity of LKY, Jayakumar and Chok Tong would still be needed to warm the seats and hold the fort. If this theory is true, then soon we could be seeing a Clinton, Brown, Gandhi or a Hu becoming our PM and leading us to a brighter future. Let’s welcome the foreigners with open arms. It is quite sad that with 2 million people we could carry ourselves to the first world. Now with 4/5 million people we are saying that our future will be doomed without more talented foreigners coming here to help us.

Is Superbug another health crisis?

The fear of H1N1 has just subsided after hundreds of millions of dollars were spent to stock up the vaccine by fearful nations, particularly those countries that have a lot of money to pay for the drug. The pharmaceutical companies must be very thankful for the monetary windfall for a crisis that was blown out of proportion and is now seen as not worst off than another variation of the common flu. The new hype, Superbug, is catching the attention of news hungry media. It is seen as another big thing by the European experts, and the monetary potential for big profits is very tempting. The Superbug is claimed to have its origin in India. The Indian health authority is not amused and angry that India is being picked as the culprit for the bug. And they too are questioning the vested and commercial interests of parties crying wolf. Could this be another cry wolf episode and a money spinner? Or would the world take this less seriously as the H1N1? Would WHO raise the alarm and pronounce this as another epidemic waiting to happen? Let’s hope that this is a false alarm. Let’s hope that countries were not made to waste precious money to hoard vaccines that may not be necessary. In this case there is no vaccine available for the next 10 years. But huge sums of money will have to be set aside for R&D to come up with a wonder drug. What if this is real? How are we going to be affected should we be found to harbour a big pool of carriers living in our neighbourhood? One thing for sure, our economy will shrink immediately if we are to repatriate in bulk, all the foreign workers from affected countries. There is a health risk and an economic risk. Our HDB flats will be vacant with no more tenants or foreign talents vying to buy resale flats. The property bubble will surely to burst, not because of a world financial crisis, but a Superbug. I recall the Year 2000 bug and how that also led to a crisis of worldwide proportion. This Superbug is an interesting development that could prove comical.

Notable quote by Lee Hsien Loong

"Let us welcome them with an open heart, help them to fit in and encourage those who will become citizens to strike roots here. If we do this well, by the next generation, their children will be native Singaporeans." Lee Hsien Loong The future of Singapore is looking very bright and exciting. We are going all out to woo the brightest talents from all over the world, including those who helped in one way or another to create the world's biggest financial collapse, to work with us. Yes, if we handle this well, Singapore's future will be rosy and good. And we have hundreds of billions in our reserves that would serve our future well too. And the large reserves will come in handy to the financial experts coming into our shores. Together with GIC and Temasek, if we manage these monies well, we may not have to work in the future. The money will work for us, with the help of all the financial talents. We are talking about our future getting better and better. Presumably we are doing very well now. And yes, many are doing excellently today except for the few oldies that needed $20 to help out in their transport fare and a few who have to live in the parks. Tell them not to worry, the future is looking really good, that is, if we handle the situation well. What if we did not do it well?

$20 for senior commuters

Gan Kim Yong is dishing out $20 from his CCC fund to senior citizens affected by the recent fare hikes in public transport. Only those who are 60 and above and have less than $1,500 monthly family income qualified. It is expected that this will cost the CCC $20,000. This is a one time payment though there is possibly of further payments. Is there a real problem affecting the senior citizens? After all it is only a few cents per trip. And this is not enough even to buy a can of soft drink. So why the hooha? Gan Kim Yong had received many complaints during his meet the people session. So there is a real problem. Other MPs are also getting more complaints on the same issue. If there is a problem, how is a one time $20 going to help remove the problem? Is this just a gesture of kindness or a temporary measure while the MPs are seeking a real solution to the plight of the poor oldies? Should those who made the decision to increase the small and irritating few cents of financial burden try to do something, like donating their bonuses to help them? After all their bonuses can come to several hundred thousands each and quite likely paid by these small increases? I don’t think anything will happen as the small hike is going to bring in many benefits to the oldies in the future. The hike is a good thing, helping the oldies. It becomes ridiculous to dish out more money for the oldies when they are supposedly benefitting from the hike. Or is it?

The Bankrupt of America

‘The US is bankrupt and it doesn’t even know it. Economy won’t be big enough to handle US$4 trillion in entitlements owed to 78 million baby boomers. Let’ get real. The United States is bankrupt. Neither spending more nor taxing less will help the country pay its bills….’ This is the heading and first paragraph of an article in Bloomberg, by Laurence Kotlikoff, Professor of Economics at Boston University. Yeah man, The US of A is a bankrupt country. And it is still strutting its stuff everywhere thinking that it is still the big boy in town. But the best part of this fiasco is that they think that they can act rich and spend their way out of this rut. They are going to print and print more greenbacks for the Americans to go on spending. This is the happiest solution that anyone can ever think of. In fact it is ingenious. A bankrupt spending like a millionaire and as if there is no tomorrow. And the problem will go away. When is America going to carry a bowl and go a begging in the streets of London?

Notable quote by Seelan Palay

“Before we begin, I’d like to clarify that I’m in the dock in shackles, cuffs and chains not because I have committed any crime. I am here in this state because of another unjust law administered on behalf of the PAP Government.” Seelan Palay I copied the above quote from jacob 69er. Seelan was speaking to the judge just before the proceeding of his trial. I totally disagree with the way we treat and handle our political activists with cuffs and shackles. Do we have to be so mean? They are not criminals and not violent. Many are well educated and responsible citizens. The Americans have their Guantanamo and think it is an acceptable thing. And the world kept quiet about the whole sordid happenings there.

A frightening and uncanny similarity

Please read the extract below from an article by Laurence Kotlifkoff, an economics professor of Boston University. ‘We have 78 million baby boomers who, when fully retired, will collect benefits from Social Security, Medicare and Medicaid that, on average, exceed per capita GDP. The annual costs of these entitlements will total about US$4 trillion in today’s money. Yes, our economy will be bigger in 20 years, but not big enough to handle this size load year after year. This is what happens when you run a massive Ponzi scheme for six decades straight, taking ever larger resources from the young and giving them to the old while promising the young their eventual turn at passing the generational buck. Mr Herb Stein, chairman of the Council of economic Advisers under US President Richard Nixon, coined an oft repeated phrase: “Something that can’t go on, will stop.” True enough, Uncle Sam’s Ponzi scheme will stop. But it will stop too late….’ Just think of our CPF scheme, and also the public housing scheme. The ever increasing price of HDB flats, direct from HDB or resale, is like taking from the young to pay the oldies. And of course, promising the young that the housing bubble will go on expanding, never ending, and they will reap their millions tomorrow. How long can this go on? Or as Stein above said, ‘Something that can’t go on, will stop?’