The Americans launched the Chip War to stop China's growth in the chip industry, hoping to lock China down to the production of 28nm chips while the Americans ran away towards 3nm and smaller chips. If successful, the Americans would maintain a lead of at least 10 years ahead of China and depriving China from the use of faster chips in high end technology and weapons production. China would be stuck in serving only the automobiles and consumer goods manufacturing, in a way low value and low end products.
The American's sweet dream did not last long. China broke through in the manufacturing of 14nm chips, then 7nm chips and 5nm chips. The Americans were still comfortably ahead in 3nm chips and pushing for 2nm chips. The banning of selling these chips to China, and the banning of selling EUV machine to make these chips were a big blow to China. China attempted to break out from this trap by redesigning chips with the same old DUV machine, by new methods of layering to develop chips that are capable of performing like 3nm chips, with some success.
This week Huawei, China announced a new breakthrough in developing 1nm chips using its own quantum machine, not EUV machine. This is sending a shockwave across the American chip landscape. China is now ahead of the Americans. China does not need to buy EUV machine anymore. ASML is finished in this game. Nvidia too would be in trouble, with a pocket full of chips but no buyer, China has no need to buy Nvidia chips anymore.
And yes, China has won the Chip War. China is not chasing behind the Americans. China has reached the end of race, bursting across the tape, at least for this phase of the war. What now America? Still trying to make 2nm and if successful, would still have to build 1nm to be equal to China.
With China winning this Chip War, what else do the Americans have that is ahead of China? Can't think of any. Oops, America still has Democrazy that China cannot beat. The end game is near. American hegemony would soon be no more when there is no more chips or cards to play against China.
18 comments:
The best take on the Chip War comes from Kelvin Walmsley on his site 'Inside China Business'. All his information being trotted out are culled from reliable sites and statistics from even Government sources, and they tell a very sober story of how the USA Chip War has failed big time. But that has not been the revelation of the MSM and the USA Government. Admitting failure would be catastrophic for investors like TSMC and Samsung. The charade must continue as USA taxpayer's money have been used to subsidize those investors. The question is how long this can continue.
Even in AI, USA entities are finding the competition from China really hot and taxing around the collar. Open-source AI like DeepSeek does not need to advertise to entice users and the greatest attraction is that users are at liberty to modify using them, unlike USA close-end AI that just wants users to pay for the privilege of using their system. It is a no brainer trying to debate who will win in the end.
Jensen Huang said in no uncertain terms that AI development moving forward is not totally about high-end chip dependency, and the most important factor is cheap energy. In Arizona, USA, where chip manufacturing entities are springing up, such manufacturing are competing with domestic users of water resources and energy, resulting in cost of water and energy escalating. Chip manufacturing needs plenty of water, and in an area almost resembling a desert, water is precious. Domestic consumers are paying the price by subsidizing chip manufacturing, a position they find truly ironic.
Even before the Chip War erupted, many already knew who is going to win. That the Chip War has given priority for China to invest substantial resources into the semiconductor sector is reaping massive benefits to the detriment of those investments in Arizona. Bad thoughts do not always reap good Karma. The USA does not have to believe in Karma, but many things are not working to its advantage. The tariff war is going to backfire against the USA in the coming months. Let us sit back and enjoy the fun.
The USA never expected China's chip development to leapfrog expectations thus far. Sure, the USA can continue to downplay chip developments in China at its own peril.
More troubles for Nvidia. China not buying Nvidia chips for safety reasons. Backdoor, remote cut off switches etc. like kill switches in Boeing aircraft.
When China is producing its own chips, no reason to buy American mischievous chips.
One thing that China is not winning is the TFR or Total Fertility Rate is only 1.01, USA is 1.62 as of 2024 but both r below the replacement of 2.01. China's birth rate is declining, that sound not so good. So what ? Meaning China will have to tackle its own ageing problems and if the young ones don't reproduce more the pool of talents might drop, that's sounds a warning bell for China.
You got it all wrong about China population decline just like what the western media would want the world to believe. To China, it is not a really the big problem, look at all the innovation (especially robotic) which is more than able to take over most of the human jobs. China main concern is to be able to take care of it young & old, also to ensure that it military is able to face any external threat. China will role out incentives to ensure population not drop to a certain level, but will not blindly accept any ah beng/ah lian to be it citizen.
With less population, it can even better care for them and it environment.
USA population can increase anytime they want, just like Sinkieland (just import). The ruling elite don't really care whether the peasants are local born as long as they are voted into power every 5 yrs. They ruling class will panic if population drop too much which affect their ability to milk more from the peasants. That why die die they must ensure they keep the population increases.
You got it wrong. Look at what the young ones doing, majority don't have more than 2 babies , in times to come China will lack that critical mass to maintain the country. It will be like another red dot but a bigger version of that.
Right or wrong, China is using robotics in a massive adoption to run factories that needs little humans. Dark factories run 24/7, making missiles in the dark. We tend to look at China's problems in the context of how the West looks at it. It is all doom and gloom. Everything China does is all doom and gloom. But China works differently. How long does it take China to be devoid of humans? It is not going to happen. Japan has been able to survive this problem for decades. And the West have been spinning the narrative that the Japanese race will be extinct one day. Really?
China needs to create fewer jobs for a smaller population. In contrast, countries like India with high population growth will be facing huge problems in finding jobs for its younger population. Population dividend mantra is a big fat lie. China needs less of everything, from food to housing if a smaller population does result. Here in Red Dot, do we remember the propaganda years ago that a smaller family equates to a better life for its people. Did Singaporeans go into extinction?
If we are talking about producing humans to fight wars, that is even less detrimental down the road, with drones and military robots doing the job more efficiently, needing no food to feed an army of robots. Countries need not send a army, just sending missiles will be enough.
Talking about critical mass, India would likely rule the world with a population that puts even the USA to shame at 1.62. What kind of life are Indian citizens having? Do we see the dividends they are reaping? What kind of life are some USA citizens leading? Homelessness for some, two or three jobs for others, with housing beyond the reach of most. Is that all there is about a big population?
Goodness, I have not even talked about Singapore today at just 6.1 million population and already human traffic at Bishan MRT station during peak hours is breaking the station with the Circle Line running and more to be added.
There are advantages and disadvantages of a big population, and no one direction is the best. It is how the Government manages the population that is important.
Everyone talking about the rise of China but no one knows about it's downfall. China's achievement in STEM might be it's downfall in the future. A country that's too advance in techs, businesses, AI, economics etc. will also has its own downside. There was an ancient empire that collapsed due to some unforeseen circumstances....some say the Sumerians, Indus civilization, san xing dui etc.. there r extraterrestrial beings collapsed & migrated to others galaxy. There must be a unified earthlings come together as one to propel earthlings to other world systems when this planet is destroyed some day.
..."China needs to create fewer jobs for a smaller population. In contrast, countries like India with high population growth will be facing huge problems in finding jobs for its younger population. Population dividend mantra is a big fat lie. China needs less of everything, from food to housing if a smaller population does result. Here in Red Dot, do we remember the propaganda years ago that a smaller family equates to a better life for its people. Did Singaporeans go into extinction?"
-- China will have a big issue tackling a large population that is ageing not even AI or robots or automation can replaced it. China had sent many experts to Japan and even the West to study the aging population there & they knew that it's nemesis is coming that's why they r encouraging the young to have more babies if they can afford and able to but the outcome is not encouraging.
America has the perfect formula. Produce more lawyers, liars and gangsters and it will be great again.
As for China, let the masters tell the boys and girls write all the bad things about China. It will make many brain dead Anglophiles very happy and believing that China will collapse tomorrow.
.."Talking about critical mass, India would likely rule the world with a population that puts even the USA to shame at 1.62. What kind of life are Indian citizens having? Do we see the dividends they are reaping? What kind of life are some USA citizens leading? Homelessness for some, two or three jobs for others, with housing beyond the reach of most. Is that all there is about a big population?"
-- Do not belittle India that they can't lead the World. According to their ancient Vedic text & the Mahabharata they might have once ruled this universe with advance flying Vimana & celestial weaponry. India have a critical mass advantage give them some time & they might even excel better than the Chinese. Look at many the the West MNC there r many India Indians CEOs and executives, they may one day lead the world.
That's untrue. Some of the Americans & Britons r great lawyers they r not great liars they fight their case base on facts and evidence.
I think the Indian CEOs would be running big Indian companies if there were no American companies hiring them. And India will have its own Microsoft, Google, Alphabets and more to compete with the Americans.
Very true. If America did not steal all the Indian CEOs, they will make Indian companies as great as American companies.
Must have been listening and studying too much of Modi's 'Laosian' teaching that India is going to be number one. Indians did not build up those MNCs from scratch. They are founded and became successful under White leadership. What is so great about stepping in to take credit due to others hard work? This is nothing to gloat about.
By the way, China has lots of globally successful companies like BYD, DJI, Tencent, Ali Baba, ByteDance not to talk about having the world's top banks that have no Indian CEOs.
And by the way, Boeing and other USA companies are now wary of Indian Engineers running USA companies into the ground, like Boeing.
How big is big Indian companies. Air India is big but suffered losses year after year. The only companies making money are those of Adani, given all the privileges by the Modi Government to take over foreign successful and profitable companies.
That is why Gordon Chang is so great in his prediction about the collapse of China. And I think the Anglophiles adored him.
No one was talking about China's rise thirty years ago, but the whole West was talking about the collapse of China twenty years ago. Did it happen? Not that I know of.
Of course, every empire come and go, it is just a matter of time. No empire can last forever, China included. So, nothing surprising. We still do not know about ancient civilizations that disappeared. We are just speculating, nothing more.
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